market movement with comps, sponsor units

Ah, one of the long-awaited new concepts in comps threads from aboutready. New dev resales and chelsea new dev were the other ideas, were they not?

Herewith the Element, courtesy of apt23: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/17676-from-the-mind-of-a-lemming

i've been busy. i'll get to chelsea this week.

the oculus, developer alchemy. also the developer of the disaster Isis. alchemy cuts bait rather quickly, good for the latter purchasers in a building, not so good for the first few.

poor 7E. bought 10/08 at $1,645,000. has been trying to sell for awhile. is currently at $1,800,000. 3E also bought 10/08, $1,535,000.

sponsor sold 2E 07/09 for $1,100,000.

"poor 7E. bought 10/08 at $1,645,000. has been trying to sell for awhile. is currently at $1,800,000"

Disagree. Someone asking $1,800,000 for this apartment is not trying to sell. Listing for sale and trying to sell aren't the same thing.

sarcasm, conveniently a same line unit, we have to make due with what we have.

ok, atelier, 42nd and awfully close to the hudson, windy but appealed to an awful lot of bubble buyers. currently 64 units for sale, tons for rent as well. been closing for about three years, selling for who knows how long.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/building/atelier-condominium

19L 08/09 $650,000
18L 12/08 780,000
12L 07/07 780,000

Ooh, yes, atelier. Must go have a look at that one. I spent a good part of last year waiting for that one to crumble but got bored and haven't looked in forever.

Know a few people who wanted to buy , some did, in Atelier. Nobody wanted to live there.

here's the sale that gave us the idea for the thread. C line, 621 sf.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/building/212-east-47-street-new_york

19C, listed much earlier for $678,470. 11/09 sold for $482,296.

21C $679,800 08/08

The Harrison:
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/search?search=the+Harrison

09/22/09 #901 $2,000,000
11/13/09 #801 $1,925,000
12/14/09 #301 $1,594,200

Ouch. Despite the height difference, they all have the same view and none of them clear the building going up across the street. Anyone who buys from the sponsor without a 20% discount from here on in, is a fool

"here's the sale that gave us the idea for the thread" us? I guess it's used as the royal "we" in this case.

no, no, no. i abdicated long ago. it was apt23's idea.

what would a sponsor thread be without a visit from the rushmore? one month time frame, too!

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/building/the-rushmore

12/09 36A $2,680,000
11/09 28A 3,135,000

Oh, and don't forget the extra 8 floors of evelation for your 15% discount!

If I'm Extell I love legacy buyers who are stuck in contract (28A, presumably - why else would they have closed?) but I don't mind new guys off the sideline (36A presumably) at $1,450 psf either.

Somehow I think that the Rushmore will be a frequent visitor to this thread...

on this thread will be interesting to see how much loss people tolerate (if closing around the same time, as in 28a above), and not walk....

Tribeca Summit

06/10/08 #3E $2.450,000
09/09/08 #2E $2,400,000
10/14/09 #6E $2,000,000

Interesting that 2E and #3E bought at corresponding current ask. There is another listing in the "in contract" section for 4E and I don't understand why, but they list the closing price as $2,412,500. God Bless that buyer because the ask at the time - 5/16/08 --was $2,550.000. Clearly this was someone who was not to be screwed around with because unlike the others, he got a sizable $140,000 discount. No Fool, he. Until he saw 6E at $2mm. Ouch. Maybe it is not yet in the "sales" column because there are currently lawyers involved. If so, hopefully the lawyers will not charge more than his $140,000 discount in case he doesn't win.. Me? I'd send anyone in who could save my instantaneous $412,500 loss (and counting). Lawyers, Mafia Dons, dominatrix, Michael Schvo.... any fool I could find.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/building/517-west-46-street-manhattan

501 03/08 $1,125,000
601 08/09 818,000

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/building/552-west-43-street-new_york

2A $700,000 12/09
3A 821,500 11/09

2A is ostensibly 1190 sf, so $588 psf. fringe falls first.

LUX 74 - 429 East 74th

10/01/2009 #4A $3,700,000
10/06/2008 #5A $4,378,475
08/12/2008 #3A $4,276,650

15% down from the average of the 2008 closings is in some ways not bad.

Oh, and it's nice that things have been going so well (particularly from a financial perspective) for the owner of #5A since shortly after the purchase, so we really don't have to worry about him being down almost $700k on his purchase.

a clue!

here's the cielo. 1866 sf 3/3.5. the 06 sales were early closings, may represent earlier contract dates. one of those buildings where i thought the sponsor had sold out, but i was wrong.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/building/cielo-condominium

19B $2,963,107 07/06
15B 2,881,647 10/06

17B 2,150,000 12/09

district. those smaller units are indeed holding up well.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/building/district-condominium

721 $645,000 01/09
821 485,000 12/09

Brompton. In fairness, Related has done a pretty good job closing units and mostly holding the line on price. However, cracks are beginning to appear in the dam. For one, they have a bit of a problem in the J and K lines on floors 10-16, which together represent about a quarter of unsold units in the building. Until just recently, only one of the six units available in each line had closed (12J and 11K, both last May). Then in December...

12/11/2009 #10J $1,275,000
05/08/2009 #12J $1,580,000

-19%

At District, unit 521 still listed at 605,000$, a mere 25% over recent closing.

Love this thread.

Wallace Stevens - "Does ripe fruit never fall? Or do the boughs hang always heavy in that perfect sky?"

chelsea modern. still has about a third of the units to go, SE shows 31 units sold out of 47.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/building/chelsea-modern

8E $1,970,000 10/08
7E 1,450,000 06/09

7D 1,875,000 10/08
6D 1,500,000 12/09

Chelsea Modern - interesting that the bigger cave on the part of the sponsor was the June trade (-26%) not December (-20%).

in some of these buildings this has been going on for awhile. i didn't realize the extent of it.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/building/loft-25

3K $700,000 12/09
5K 900,000 11/08

2G 1,275,000 05/09
4G 1,700,000 04/08

well, sls, everything's rosy now, don't you know. chelsea modern will be an interesting one to watch. according to SE they only closed two units in the past five months.

about..i don't have se premium.but it appears that chelsea modern closed like 7 or 8 in the last six months, unless i am misreading it

3 in June
3 in July
1 in Nov
1 in Dec

ar was choosing her time period ("past five months") carefully to start counting after July.

yes, well, i'd say november and december are more relevant than june and july. and they still have 16 or so to go. this was a much-anticipated development.

here's one that closed this summer. i'm listing it because it's a good example of a building that had (and still has, actually) just a few units left to go. 31 units sold out of 34, this was the most recent sale.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/building/246-west-17-street-new_york

2E $1,200,000 07/09
3E 1,975,000 10/08

2E at 246 west 17th has 2200 taxes, 1600 cc...Geez. With those monthlies, the price is still nutty.

i may have made a mistake then, although the listing said the first three floors were a pre-existing structure, so i thought 3E would be a decent comp. the listing for 3E shows lower taxes. i don't know if that's correct, but if it is that was a flawed comp.

More at 246 West 17th. Clearly the problem here is that the building lacks a pretentious name. All new developments should have one.

Two months difference in the closing dates, 30% in price
01/22/2009 #6C $1,480,000
11/11/2008 #7C $2,100,000

29% in price
05/06/2009 #5B $1,575,000
12/17/2008 #6B $2,100,000
10/14/2008 #7B $2,225,000

"i may have made a mistake then" No. Both listings have floor plans and they are the same.

SLS, perhaps 2E and 3E outfitted similarly, same floor plan, but only 3E qualified for the abatement. If so, makes an interesting case to look at value of the abatement. Getting some idea of magnitude, the tax abatement value is about 25,000$ per year, using today's taxes, but I don't know length of it.

jim, 3E wasn't supposed to be eligible for the abatement. only apartments floors 4 and up. but the listing for 3E shows abated taxes. the listing was probably inaccurate, in which case the comp is correct, and would generally reflect both movement in the building and the fact that in a slower market it is very tough to unload a unit with such carrying costs.

No one curious about the "clue" at LUX 74?

has he been arrested yet?

Ha. Miraculously no. Apparently the "idiot defense", made famous by Ken Lay, is working so far.

I have posted on many threads about 246 west 17th.
It is your prototypical "pretty pig" by Core group and designed for pre 2008 no ceiling real estate.

The first 3 floors are un tax abated which is why they sold/are selling so much cheaper than the upper floors. I saw a few apartments and the layouts are nice, the units feel solid though the kitchens looked clean and sharp came across as cheaply built. The bathrooms were nice.

There is an attempt of resales or flips on the first floor, the thinking I gather is everyone will look at the psf and ignore the outrageous monthlies.Unfortunately for them, this market is no longer stupid and it is, I think, a great example of what can go wrong when buyers are shortsighted on what tax abatements really provide. And that is cover for an overpriced apartment.
This building shows exactly what price differences in a unit occur between average and excessively high monthly costs.
Floors 1 thru 3 are providing a look at the future for units on the 4th floor an up as their tax abatements diminish.

Suggested for this nameless building, The Remorser.

Correction, thought the third floor is part of the original construction, it is tax abated.
Floors 1 and 2 have no abatement.

This is a lovely thread - much appreciated.

"This is a lovely thread - much appreciated" I guess now we know for sure that you are neither a 2008 new dev buyer nor a developer. So at least that's settled.

Union Square Flats
56 east 13th st

8 story full floor lofts of equal size. 8th floor penthouse with roof rights.

01/15/2008 #6 $1,800,000 (original ask assume @ 2,500,000)
11/18/2009 #5 $1,600,000 (original ask $2,400,000 Feb'08)

Active Sales listing
Offering 7th and 8th floor together option as well.
Do note that the 3rd floor has been reduced to a $1.675 ask, certainly influenced by recent #5 getting $1.6 and that all apts are identical.

$5,250,000 56 East 13th Street #78 4 beds
$2,900,000 56 East 13th Street #8 1,966 ft²
$2,350,000 56 East 13th Street #7 1,965 ft²
$1,675,000 56 East 13th Street #3 2 beds 1,966 ft²

Also note by my measurements of 21 x 78 for full floor(1638), can't see how this is 1966 sq ft.
http://img.streeteasy.com/nyc/image/51/10121951.gif
Surprising considering that I find Core group is usually pretty decent compared to others in footage accuracy.

sorry, forgot to post the page.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/building/union-square-flats

It's a 25' lot, built full-width, so 25x80-something is around 2000. Looks as if they're counting stairway and elevator.

I did not disclude stairway and elevator. On full floor apartments you'll never get an argument from me to disclude.

"I guess now we know for sure that you are neither a 2008 new dev buyer nor a developer. So at least that's settled."

sidelinesitter, ???

http://img.streeteasy.com/nyc/image/51/10121951.gif

Ok yes, it's 21 feet 10 inches living room, 21 feet 10 inches bedroom, 21 feet 10 inches sitting room.
I'll call it 22 feet and I'll go to 80 feet instead of 78. That's still 1760 sq ft.

Of course if someone insisted it's still 2000 sq ft, I'd have to reduce my offer price by the 12% less space it is. ;)

bjw - sorry. attempt at humor not translating online. I was trying to make a joke at the expense of those who would not find this thread "lovely" - namely developers and pre-crash new dev buyers - not to suggest I had thought you were either one

No worries, sideline. I did laugh in retrospect if that's any consolation. The irony is that I did buy new dev in late 08, though was fortunate to get a nice deal on one of the last units in a building. I am all for price correction though, which is why I appreciate this thread and the efforts of many to document any substantial movement.

for some reason the sales for visionaire are showing up at the wrong address. SE has been moving them over, but this one is still in the wrong place. Unit 6C, $785k, 01/10. 7C, $890k, 02/09. 9C, $905k, 04/09.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/closing/952344

Expanding upon the Harrison sequence Apt23 posted above for the "1" line (2BR/2BA, 1307 sq.ft.):
06/29/2009 # 401 $1,685,000
08/20/2009 # 701 $2,025,000
09/14/2009 # 601 $1,673,250
09/22/2009 # 901 $2,000,000
11/13/2009 # 801 $1,925,000
12/14/2009 # 301 $1,594,200
12/22/2009 #1001 $1,850,000
*CONTRACT* # 501
*CONTRACT* #1101
*CONTRACT* #1201
**ACTIVE** # 601 (Listed for $1.995MM; rented through April 2011.)
Evaluating these sales is tricky because the results are more a function of contract dates and deposit amounts than closing dates. So it's hard to know whether the #701 buyer was naive or simply lacked negotiating leverage.

On the Union Square Flats size.. interesting that rentals used to be listed at 1800sf. Then some genius found a way to increase to 1966 and thought no one would notice.

Think they are including the walls, stairs and elevator in the calculations which most people do when selling full floor lofts. I disagreer with the methodology even though every one is using it. I think it is only 1600 sq ft space after excluding exterior walls, stair and elevator. Renovation is only half done. One bath room per floor. No more than 1.3mm for floor 3. Floor 7 perhaps $1.6 it has nice light.

After jut announcing that they were more than 50% sold, the Tribeca Fairchild still doesn't show any new buyers since April 2009. Anyone know the sponsor's situation in this ones Looks pretty solid....but one never knows:

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/building/the-fairchild

Reposting from mistaken post on new dev resale comp thread:

Not sure this is exactly new development (2006 occupancy and a condo conversion/redevelopment), but it was priced as new dev back in the day for sure. Anyway, here goes:

100 West 58th Street (Windsor Park). Most of the original developer sales closed early 2006 to mid-2007. Rest of 2007 and into 2008 was a handful of developer sales and a bunch of flips (including profitable flips by some of the Elliman brokers who marketed the building), but the developer still held a lot when the sh*t hit the fan, evan after cutting prices on a few sales in 2008. It's too much work to post all the units that the developer dumped in the last six months, but just consider the following to be a capitulation tasting menu. I'm not sure that the entire line is the same floor plan in every case, but at a minimum most of these are comps.

12/17/2009 #10G $999,000
03/30/2006 #12G $1,378,000
02/15/2006 #6G $1,215,000
02/03/2006 #5G $1,224,000
02/01/2006 #4G $1,202,000

11/11/2009 #13C $1,325,000
07/17/2008 #9C $1,420,000
10/10/2006 #12C $1,603,743
03/27/2006 #2C $1,676,039
03/23/2006 #14C $1,823,000
03/13/2006 #9C $1,815,000
03/10/2006 #10C $1,750,000

08/31/2009 #10F $1,150,000
08/17/2009 #13F $1,175,000
07/31/2009 #11F $1,100,000
01/14/2008 #8F $1,625,000
08/09/2007 #7F $1,600,000
08/08/2006 #14F $1,725,000
02/28/2006 #9F $1,632,000

10/16/2009 #14I $1,300,000
09/16/2009 #13I $1,275,000
04/17/2006 #15I $2,000,000

Union Square flats

I think the advertised 1977 square footage is from the official filing (available on ACRIS). As far as I can tell, that quoted floor area excludes the stairway and elevator, but includes the external walls. Based on those ACRIS filings, it looks like the dimensions are something like 25' by 86' including external walls and 22' by 82' excluding external walls (numbers are approximate, apparently the exact measurements vary from floor to floor).

I guess regular (non floor through) apartments probably only include half the wall in the official square footage, so that's one source of discrepancy?

515 East 72nd (Miraval Living condo conversion). They closed a lot from late 2007 through fall 2009, but closings pretty much stopped (one here, one there) for almost a year post-Lehman until the sponsor started whacking 20-30% off most units and people started to buy. One of the A line layouts is a good example of the impact.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/building/miraval-living
03/15/2010 #26B $1,070,000
01/19/2010 #24B $1,069,162
09/30/2009 #27B $1,150,000
06/02/2008 #23B $1,425,550
05/23/2008 #29B $1,527,375

The 2010 trades vs. the 9/09 closing would suggest that a bit more price is required to get each marginal buyer off the sideline.

no way!

Maybe it's time I became an insider? Can't get the history on the latest units closing at the Setai.

But all recent closings are below $1000 psqft while askings were in the 1300/1400 psqft range.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/building/the-setai

aboutready previously posted the B line history through 12/09 at the Cielo. #14B has since been added to the sequence, breaking the $1,000 psf barrier with ease

19B $2,963,107 07/06
15B 2,881,647 10/06
17B 2,150,000 12/09
14B 1,710,049 01/10 (1,866sf = $916 psf)