Latest Pending Home Sales Data

Things been moving up for months!!!
We are entering the strongest points of the year.

Stay tune!!

ericho please dazzle us with some more data predictions.

Marco_m, you're an idiot.
The market is speaking loud and clear.

Only the morons here (streeteasy bears) have been fighting this trend the past 12 months. Have anyone seen commodity prices like copper and silver???? Inflationary pressure has been building for months. Housing isn't going to be any different.

Is this why the fed calls for an emergency meeting today?

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/meetings/2010/20100405/advancedexp.htm

Another .25 discount rate hike coming today or tomorrow.

Bank on IT!

Is this just the effect of the tax credit? I guess we will know once we see April or May pending home data.

This number was quite a bit higher than wall street as expecting (-1.0% MoM expectation). I would think that the consensus estimate would have factored in the tax credit expiration. So does this show real improvement?

jhochle,
It isn't just 1 indicator. Factor in all the economic indicators including current prices of EVERYTHING and you'll see where things are going.

The bears got NOTHING.

why am I an idiot? what was your call on nfp #'s ? what was mine? should I dig up tour mind blowing bonus thread again?? hahaha

I do agree that the economy has at least stabilized for now. However I do also believe that in the short run Manhattan RE prices will still continue to decline because of credit problems and supply /demand issues. I, unlike you, am able to take an unbiased macro look at things

Buy now OR BE PRICED OUT FOREVER!

"I do agree that the economy has at least stabilized for now"

Yes, after fighting it for 12 months. Go figure.

housing data--positive, job data--positive, stock market--positive, not saying its time to break open the champagne, but definitley time for a nice 6 pack of high quality ale!!

> Marco_m, you're an idiot.

Ericho calling others names... now thats funy.

> The market is speaking loud and clear.

Then why can't you understand it?

> Only the morons here (streeteasy bears) have been fighting this trend the past 12 months.

Morons = those proven right. Always the dumbasses who don't get it.

"Have anyone seen commodity prices like copper and silver???? Inflationary pressure has been building for months."

Really? Inflation is basically nonexistent. And commodities?
The commodity index is down 45% from peak!

Seriously, ericho, this is almost as dumb as "target buyers will save us".

You should take an economics 101 class.

> The bears got NOTHING.

Except for the fact they were proven 100% right!

(but, being right doesn't seem to matter to you)

"housing data--positive, job data--positive, stock market--positive, not saying its time to break open the champagne, but definitley time for a nice 6 pack of high quality ale!!"

Its funny how folks still confuse slightly less negative data with "positive".

We LOST jobs... AGAIN. Thats a positive? Not in math.

To get to positive.
You need to get to less negative.

Get a grip somewherelse.

"Really? Inflation is basically nonexistent. And commodities?
The commodity index is down 45% from peak!"

And 38% of the lows.

Your point?

Somewhere...

What jobs data are you referring to?

"Inflation is basically nonexistent."

Err...maybe to renters as the decrease in rent offsets everything else that went up.
Homeowners are just feeling the everything else.

Don't spill your drink ericho
http://www.yankeesoda.co.uk/images/kool%20aid%20man.jpg

Latest non farm payrolls (released 4/2) shows gain of 161K jobs.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm

"Is this why the fed calls for an emergency meeting today?

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/meetings/2010/20100405/advancedexp.htm

Another .25 discount rate hike coming today or tomorrow.

Bank on IT!"

yet another ericho winner....
WSJ: Fed Ends Meeting Without Discount-Rate Move
April 5, 2010, 2:39 PM ET
Fed Ends Meeting Without Discount-Rate Move
The U.S. Federal Reserve on Monday said its Board of Governors met to discuss
the interest rate it charges banks on emergency loans, but the Fed made no
announcement of a discount-rate increase.

The discount rate is meaningless. The Fed has already said they are going to keep the funds rate at 0 for a long time. No rate hikes before 2011.

"The U.S. Federal Reserve on Monday said its Board of Governors met to discuss
the interest rate it charges banks on emergency loans, but the Fed made no
announcement of a discount-rate increase."

Not yet.
Give it another day or 2.

I love it... ericho is thrilled that the short sales are up!

OMFL I'm ROTFL...

jhochle,the U3 rate increased almost a point. i can't recall where i read it,but they round the number. last month it was something like 9.66 and was rounded up to 9.7 and this month it was 9.749 (funny how they managed to keep it just a hair under the 9.75 that would have resulted in a 9.8% U3) and was rounded down to 9.7. also, the B/D model added something like 80,000 jobs, there were 40,000 temp jobs added, and at least 48,000 census jobs. that leaves just about zero permanent real jobs. i believe the U6 increased to a whopping 16%.

some interesting stuff on inflation and the impact of housing price declines here.

http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2010/el2010-11.html

"Conclusion

Weakness in the housing market has reduced the inflation rate of the housing components of core inflation. Yet, this very substantial decline in the rate of housing inflation has not been isolated. Rather, it is indicative of a much wider decrease in inflationary pressures observed since the peak of the financial crisis. Even if we take housing out of core PCEPI, inflation has come down substantially over the past 1½ years. As a consequence, there is little reason to reduce the emphasis on core inflation as the main gauge of underlying price pressures in the economy. Recent core inflation trends reflect substantial and widespread disinflationary pressures, which, as Liu and Rudebusch (2010) point out, is likely due to a large amount of slack in the economy."

> "Really? Inflation is basically nonexistent. And commodities?
> The commodity index is down 45% from peak!"
> And 38% of the lows.
> Your point

Point... you were HORRIBLY wrong.

Amazing you can't still see that...

Goes to show what you know.

It's all about timeframe.

yes, we get it, yu cherrypicked the time frame to fake inflation.

But there isn't any!

Your logic gets more bizarre every day!

Jezz.
You really don't get it do you?

Are you fresh out of High School? <---serious question.

wow, ericho, have you been proven wrong so badly you've got nothing but insults left?

I love it.

dude, you have gotten awfully cranky. wrong is one thing...but now you seem to be extremely pissed about how wrong you've been...

Wrong about what?
You haven't explain why prices and volume have gone up this past quarter.

"Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the improvement is another hopeful sign. “The rise in buyer contact activity may signal the early stages of a second surge of home sales this spring."

Quoting Lawrence Yun must be the ultimate sign of bull desperation. Palm readers and astrologists have more credibility.

quoting Yun? awesome.

:)

I'm just the messenger.

Yun did say 2nd SURGE.

> You haven't explain why prices and volume have gone up this past quarter.

Short sale volume was up.

And in terms of pricing, did Case Shiller not say down again?

> I'm just the messenger.

You're only the messenger if you relay *correct* information.

;-)

> Yun did say 2nd SURGE.

wait, Yun, the guy who is PAID to be bullish? Wasn't this the guy who said there will be no decline.

Wow, you know ericho is scraping the bottom of the barrel....

1st Quarter Manhattan sales prices UP YOY. I was wrong in that I was a month or two off when I called this for 4th quarter of 2009.

Tools like Somewhereelse vilified me for this predication - he predicted a 50% decrease........

Aboutready - according to that article, the cost of shelter never dipped (only slowed down in its increases!)

"Tools like Somewhereelse vilified me for this predication - he predicted a 50% decrease........"

Not just a 50% decrease, but a 50% decrease from Spring of 09. How wrong was he?