Since the thread where this appeared was riddled with trolls and irrelevance, I will start a new thread: w67thstreet 2 days ago stop ignoring this person report abuse Wow Ali. You take a lot of coffee breaks. And let me correct you once again. It's slow bc the shitstorm is around the corner. Obama wants to let every home'owner' get a 3% 3yr ARM. Buffett just got the BofA put from bernie while ROME... [more]
Since the thread where this appeared was riddled with trolls and irrelevance, I will start a new thread:
w67thstreet
2 days ago
stop ignoring this person
report abuse
Wow Ali. You take a lot of coffee breaks.
And let me correct you once again. It's slow bc the shitstorm is around the corner. Obama wants to let every home'owner' get a 3% 3yr ARM. Buffett just got the BofA put from bernie while ROME burns.
Flmaozzzzz. I miss apt23. Where is she to take a victory lap?
Thanks W67. I have missed reading your posts too. The last one I read was your missive from the loo at the Louvre --hilarious. Hope the missus and the kiddies had a great time.
For bjw and others who wondered why the nod from W67, let me take that victory lap now. Since last fall, I have been positing about the affect of the Europe crisis on the markets and NYC RE. I was dismissed not only on this site but also by my brokers and advisors who all claimed it would not be a problem. By early this year I was saying that according to the European economists I was reading, the European banks were insolvent. I was pounded by most posters except for W67 and Graffittigrammarian who did his own research and posted European articles that had better numbers than the articles I posted.
Still, some posters who otherwise have a good track record, most notably Sidelinesitter, assailed me and called for a moratorium on my posting about Europe and Greece whose problems were well known by that time -- I think this phase of attack came in April or May. I replied that the Greek problems had indeed become well known by that time but the fact that the banks were insolvent and that the ECB and ESFS were in precarious financial straits were not being reported in the US media. I argued that the Greek debt issue was a trigger not the ultimate crisis. Still, he buried me in alarmist name calling, rallied the trolls and reposted their diatribes against me. An informed dialogue became pointless.
The final endgame is that Europe has still not dealt with necessary structural changes. Right now pundits are wondering if the crisis can be solved by nationalizing the French and German banks -- without considering whether those countries have the sovereign solvency to do so. Hence the repeated vulture attacks on the DAX.
So, w67, take your victory lap too. If this Sh##storm continues, $500psf will come to be the most prescient -- and the earliest-- call on the financial problems in NY RE.
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Response by apt23
over 14 years ago
Posts: 2041
Member since: Jul 2009
Because my most virulent attackers are the trolls, let me post Barry Ritzholtz' brilliant admonition. Not that it will do any good.
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
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Response by huntersburg
over 14 years ago
Posts: 11329
Member since: Nov 2010
Looks like apt23 needs it in the backdoor again from w67thstreet.
And interestingly, according to apt23, the most interesting post from w67th was about a problem in the bathroom. What a sick, nasty woman.
>Thanks W67. I have missed reading your posts too. The last one I read was your missive from the loo
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Response by dwell
over 14 years ago
Posts: 2341
Member since: Jul 2008
apt23:
Personally, I like any kind of intelligent commentary. I was watching "Bloomberg Risk Takers" profile of Michael Burry. Burry was correct, but he took a lot of heat. Throughout history, many have found themselves in that position. As per Ritzholtz' quote, if you've done your research & you've proofed your proof, ya can't let the majority silence you simply cause they disagree.
Re: the European banks, for the past 2 weeks, the financial media has been confirming your prognostication, apt23.
I'm not a finance person, so let me ask: What is the effect if the European banks are insolvent? I know it ain't good, but what's the remedy/result/aftermath? I'm thinking one possible effect: it might push up Manhattan RE prices as the USD might be viewed as a safe haven?
I too enjoyed W67's missive from the WC at the louvre. Dat's art.
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Response by huntersburg
over 14 years ago
Posts: 11329
Member since: Nov 2010
>ya can't let the majority silence you simply cause they disagree.
How about the frequency with which apt23 tries to silence others who disagree with her chicken little point of view on everything in the world? That is not a sign of intellect. That is a sign of insecurity.
Also, why is she attempting to avoid paying taxes in New York?
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Response by dwell
over 14 years ago
Posts: 2341
Member since: Jul 2008
huntsberg,
I can barely keep track of who posts what.
What interests me here is listening to contrarian views. I think W67's $500 PSF has merit & based on what apt23 says, his/her European bank prognostication was correct.
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Response by huntersburg
over 14 years ago
Posts: 11329
Member since: Nov 2010
Sure, contrarian views are fine.
I think that few on streeteasy believe that the real estate market is _strong_ outside of the prime NYC/Manhattan rental market.
$500 psf, that means what, a 50% decline? More?
Apt23 and w67 just say negative things, but they have provided nothing that indicates $500psf vs say $800psf. All they do is post negative news and views and then toss out the $500psf.
And if you disagree with w67, he farts and burps.
And if you disagree with apt23, she screams bloody murder and gets all hissy.
Dwell: I, too, thought QE2 would push up NY RE prices, not just because of people doing well in the super charged equity market but because printing money leads to inflation and in times of inflation, a nice low mortgage is just the ticket. To some extent, NY RE did well since QE2 but not the extent that you would think.
I think it has to do with fear and the fact that no one knows what will happen. This is a global event and I think the upper crust fears another credit crisis. The upper end RE is taking haircuts and that is even before the August market plunge. I think most wealthy people have pulled their money from the markets and are just waiting to see what happens. With cash, they can take advantage of a challenged market ala 2008.
After ignoring the problem, or just accepting and reprinting the band aid fixes to the PIIGS, the US media is now fueling the fear. Thomas Freidman's piece today is simplistic but a concise account of reasons for fear. The biggest surprise to me was that 2 weeks ago, Nouriel Roubini was interviewed in the WSJ and he basically said Capitalism has failed and Karl Marx was right (simplistic version). I was very surprised the WSJ ran it (video interview). Not really a rallying cry for the economy.
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Response by huntersburg
over 14 years ago
Posts: 11329
Member since: Nov 2010
Thy sky is falling! The sky is falling!
w67th, apt23's backdoor needs you.
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Response by dwell
over 14 years ago
Posts: 2341
Member since: Jul 2008
"Nouriel Roubini ......... basically said Capitalism has failed and Karl Marx was right (simplistic version)"
Yes, I was like WTF??? Jeez, now I gotta ditch Roubini? I dislike Friedman, so who should I read?
apt23, lemme get really micro: how does this effect Manhattan co-op prices? up? down? all cash is the way to go?
grazie!!!
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Response by columbiacounty
over 14 years ago
Posts: 12708
Member since: Jan 2009
apt23: if you haven't seen this, you may find it interesting.
michael lewis' take on how and why german banks got into trouble.
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Response by huntersburg
over 14 years ago
Posts: 11329
Member since: Nov 2010
>apt23, lemme get really micro: how does this effect Manhattan co-op prices? up? down? all cash is the way to go?
All of the bad news means that prices will go to $500psf, no ifs ands or buts.
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Response by columbiacounty
over 14 years ago
Posts: 12708
Member since: Jan 2009
do you ever stop?
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Response by huntersburg
over 14 years ago
Posts: 11329
Member since: Nov 2010
last night you suggested that Riversider go somewhere dangerous to walk his dog. And you ask if I stop?
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Response by huntersburg
over 14 years ago
Posts: 11329
Member since: Nov 2010
Just days ago you were making Nazi salutes. And you ask if I stop?
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Response by dwell
over 14 years ago
Posts: 2341
Member since: Jul 2008
I'll read that, cc.
Based on the little I know, look at Allied Irish Bank (I think that's the name): they got so rooked by US/Manhattan RE developers & owners. They naively invested in some hugely over priced RE & got took. I think this happened to a bunch of Euro banks.
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Response by columbiacounty
over 14 years ago
Posts: 12708
Member since: Jan 2009
michael lewis always has his own way of putting things; his description of german bankers trying to contend with wall street sharpies is hilarious.
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Response by huntersburg
over 14 years ago
Posts: 11329
Member since: Nov 2010
But of course columbiacounty appreciated the talk of "the country’s Nazi past" because days ago he was making Nazi salutes right here on streeteasy.
"So, w67, take your victory lap too. If this Sh##storm continues, $500psf will come to be the most prescient -- and the earliest-- call on the financial problems in NY RE."
So take a victory lap for something that hasn't even happened yet? I don't mind gutsy, contrarian calls. I just wish one of you might explain why $500psf vs some other number. Is there going to be continued downward pressure on NYC real estate? Most likely. But that ain't enough to arbitrarily throw out some number and repeat it ad nauseum. And so far, apt23, you've only drawn us the picture of European banks. As dwell asked, get us to the Manhattan story from there.
And for the record, there were more than enough doom and gloomers before w67th came around. So not sure how he'd be the "most prescient and the earliest."
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Response by apt23
over 14 years ago
Posts: 2041
Member since: Jul 2009
CC: I always love reading Michael Lewis.
Dwell: The problem with the Euro banks was that the ECB allowed them to take on sovereign debt without raising capital allocations. So, they piled into high yielding sovereign debt much like our US banks piled into sub prime --that was where the money was.
If there is a global debt crisis -- which apparently can be averted if Europe makes structural changes which they can't seem to get behind politically-- RE is going down everywhere. Micro/macro doesn't matter. Take a look at this guy, Sat Das, a renowned bear. But I have seen other moderate economists verify his numbers on ECB/EFSF/EMS. Read through this and then tell yourself he is half wrong. Even half wrong, would you buy RE or leave your money in the market? I have been taking money out of the equity market slowly for 9 months. Every time my advisors fought me. Last month they stopped fighting and told me to liquidate everything. I thought maybe it was my age (we are preparing for early retirement) but then saw that David Kelly at JPM, a sober, sensible, optimistic analyst said the S&P could go to 800. If that happens, and there is a global credit crisis, give me your prediction for RE.
If the latest bailout for Greece fails (due to Finland and others insisting on guarantees for their loans) then we will see if the ECB is swimming naked as Dat suggests. Unless they apply another band aid which the markets don't seem to be buying anymore
apt23,
"Every time my advisors fought me. Last month they stopped fighting and told me to liquidate everything."
Good for you! Yes, victory lap!
Thanks for this info. Hope you post more.
What do you think about Roubini's statement re: Marx? Nervous breakdown?
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Response by huntersburg
over 14 years ago
Posts: 11329
Member since: Nov 2010
Nervous breakdown?
apt23?
Say it ain't so.
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Response by dwell
over 14 years ago
Posts: 2341
Member since: Jul 2008
I'm not a finance person, but I find it difficult to differentiate between bears vs. prescience. I guess it depends on track record & reasoning.
It's all theoretical until the sh*t hits & only in hindsight is someone deemed prescient.
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Response by huntersburg
over 14 years ago
Posts: 11329
Member since: Nov 2010
according to apt23, the sh*t has already hit
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Response by apt23
over 14 years ago
Posts: 2041
Member since: Jul 2009
CC: Loved the Michael Lewis article. But it certainly underscores that there is no easy way out of this mess politically.
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Response by huntersburg
over 14 years ago
Posts: 11329
Member since: Nov 2010
This is the worst time ever in the history of the world. Worst time. Everything is going to hell. America is a country of loser tax avoiders (like apt23 who acknowledged on streeteasy trying to avoid NYC and NYS taxes). We can never recover. The sky is falling, the sky is falling.
Just have to love the negative negative attitude of a woman who has never worked a day in her life, depending on her husband and relatives, and handouts.
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Response by huntersburg
over 14 years ago
Posts: 11329
Member since: Nov 2010
shouldn't w67th be showing up about now? Been 8 hours without anyone farting, burping or groping on StreetEasy and seeking acknowledgment of a brilliant ability to be negative about the world but brag about himself at the same time.
Did we need another alarmist posting from apt23 dripping with her trademark wacko narcissism?
It's just ridiculous for apt23 to act like she had some special insight into the euro crisis. Geez -- there have been innumerable articles on these issues, with plenty of commentators taking very negative views. Really -- she's nuts.
Victory lap for what? There is no sign whatsoever that we are heading toward 500psf in Manhattan. So, on this REAL ESTATE TALK FORUM, what has apt23 ever gotten right? Nothing.
What apt23 does is repeat alarmist arguments of all stripes and makes no effort to reconcile them. When will she explain her views that europe will implode and that the dollar will collapse, leading to 500psf prices in manhattan???????????
In reality, if w67 said "400 psf on cpw" then apt23 would agree. If some commentator predicts complete civil chaos throught Europe, she will agree. She agrees with a wide variety of negative views ("securitization dead for a generation") and applies no analytical skills to any of it.
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Response by huntersburg
over 14 years ago
Posts: 11329
Member since: Nov 2010
but really reallynow, apt23 is being attacked by trolls (btw is the definition of a troll someoneone who is grey, like me and w67 and columbiacounty and aboutready and alanhart?) so therefore apt23 is correct and righteous in her negativity, er... realism.
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Response by Brooks2
over 14 years ago
Posts: 2970
Member since: Aug 2011
in reality, if w67 said "400 psf on cpw" then apt23 would agree. If some commentator predicts complete civil chaos throught Europe, she will agree. She agrees with a wide variety of negative views ("securitization dead for a generation") and applies no analytical skills to any of it.
Really now-- really needs to look at the big picture. And analytical skills have nothing to do with the direction on NYC real Estate Prices. There were a lot of analyst telling people real estate prices will not come down. My favorite analyst or economist once said- We are in a new economy.... We dont have to worry about a real estate prices. He actually said, "real estate prices have never gone on nationally" the only time that happened was in the 1930s when there was a great depression. The chairman of the Fed said that-- Alan Greenspn.. that should have been a warning.. that's when the smart money started to sell, get out or short the market anyway they could!!
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Response by apt23
over 14 years ago
Posts: 2041
Member since: Jul 2009
Since I have never seen a post from reallynow and the language is remarkably similar to huntersberg, and the references are years old yet this seems to be a new poster, I am loathe to respond. I am not being alarmist, and I do post many articles that reconcile these positions. I am not generating the data, only posting data from vetted economists, traders and historians who are not receiving attention of the front pages of the daily newspapers. You can choose to ignore it.
My point on this thread was that posters were wondering why W67 was saying I should take a victory lap and I was explaining that early this year, there were European commentators and economists that were providing info that the European banks were insolvent. US Media was not covering it. In April or May, I challenged sidelinesitter to post one US article where it was claimed that the banks were insolvent and he couldn't find one. It was one explanation for why the markets went up every time a "fix" was announced for Greece.
In the same way, you can see that the head of the IMF said last week that the Euro banks need to be recapitalized and yet the Euro markets are up today. It takes a while for the markets to reconcile. Perhaps there will be a happy outcome where foreign entities arrive to provide "tarp" money to resolve the problems in Europe but until then, there is a lot of risk in the markets -- including real estate. There will be those that make money on situations like this but only those that can take on a lot of risk. ie the very wealthy.
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Response by falcogold1
over 14 years ago
Posts: 4159
Member since: Sep 2008
reallynow=crazyburg
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Response by huntersburg
over 14 years ago
Posts: 11329
Member since: Nov 2010
I assume I'm crazyberg, right falcogold1. And you are the epitome of sanity and good spelling.
Anyway, you think I'm reallynow - because only 1 person can disagree with apt23?
And I can't be reallynow if I'm also julia, right?
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Response by w67thstreet
over 14 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008
Hey apt23... nice call on euro debt... the preview was awesome... me thinkz I'll pony up for the full length movie.
Get your popcorn. Butter and vodka.
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Response by apt23
over 14 years ago
Posts: 2041
Member since: Jul 2009
Yes, W67, it will be quite the show. Although the big gala won't be till the end of the month, there is a pre-party on Sept.7. The Schnapps will be flowing (you must read the Michael Lewis piece that CC posted in this thread). The list of Finland demands for Greece is also an amazing read. They pretty much want the Greek patrimony to be put is escrow. And with the first whiff of ouzo on the collective breath of the country, it will be hauled over and taken over by the EU without ever firing a bullet. Somehow methinks Greece will not accept those terms. Very interesting times we are living thru. The 100 year war of the Economists. Butter and vodka indeed.
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Response by w67thstreet
over 14 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008
chest bump!
Yes agreed on CC posted article.. I read it on the loooooooo in nyc or iz it just bathroom now? Funny funny funny article. Thxs CC
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Response by Wbottom
over 14 years ago
Posts: 2142
Member since: May 2010
good read from cc--but we were left hanging on the key issue of did michael do charlotte??
i imagine her being quite deliberate about this
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Response by malthus
over 14 years ago
Posts: 1333
Member since: Feb 2009
Anybody who has been reading the editorial page of the FT rather than the useless WSJ editorial page has seen all this coming for quite a while. I believe slow motion train wreck is the term often used.
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Response by Wbottom
over 14 years ago
Posts: 2142
Member since: May 2010
agreed malthus--the vf article provided little new info re the euro disaster, but it did put some funny spin on things
'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e)
Because my most virulent attackers are the trolls, let me post Barry Ritzholtz' brilliant admonition. Not that it will do any good.
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
Looks like apt23 needs it in the backdoor again from w67thstreet.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/25684-w-67s-prediction-come-to-pass-thru-the-backdoor
And interestingly, according to apt23, the most interesting post from w67th was about a problem in the bathroom. What a sick, nasty woman.
>Thanks W67. I have missed reading your posts too. The last one I read was your missive from the loo
apt23:
Personally, I like any kind of intelligent commentary. I was watching "Bloomberg Risk Takers" profile of Michael Burry. Burry was correct, but he took a lot of heat. Throughout history, many have found themselves in that position. As per Ritzholtz' quote, if you've done your research & you've proofed your proof, ya can't let the majority silence you simply cause they disagree.
Re: the European banks, for the past 2 weeks, the financial media has been confirming your prognostication, apt23.
I'm not a finance person, so let me ask: What is the effect if the European banks are insolvent? I know it ain't good, but what's the remedy/result/aftermath? I'm thinking one possible effect: it might push up Manhattan RE prices as the USD might be viewed as a safe haven?
I too enjoyed W67's missive from the WC at the louvre. Dat's art.
>ya can't let the majority silence you simply cause they disagree.
How about the frequency with which apt23 tries to silence others who disagree with her chicken little point of view on everything in the world? That is not a sign of intellect. That is a sign of insecurity.
Also, why is she attempting to avoid paying taxes in New York?
huntsberg,
I can barely keep track of who posts what.
What interests me here is listening to contrarian views. I think W67's $500 PSF has merit & based on what apt23 says, his/her European bank prognostication was correct.
Sure, contrarian views are fine.
I think that few on streeteasy believe that the real estate market is _strong_ outside of the prime NYC/Manhattan rental market.
$500 psf, that means what, a 50% decline? More?
Apt23 and w67 just say negative things, but they have provided nothing that indicates $500psf vs say $800psf. All they do is post negative news and views and then toss out the $500psf.
And if you disagree with w67, he farts and burps.
And if you disagree with apt23, she screams bloody murder and gets all hissy.
huntersberg,
Kumbaya, my Lord, Kumbaya.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3MiD_U4CHQ
Dwell: I, too, thought QE2 would push up NY RE prices, not just because of people doing well in the super charged equity market but because printing money leads to inflation and in times of inflation, a nice low mortgage is just the ticket. To some extent, NY RE did well since QE2 but not the extent that you would think.
I think it has to do with fear and the fact that no one knows what will happen. This is a global event and I think the upper crust fears another credit crisis. The upper end RE is taking haircuts and that is even before the August market plunge. I think most wealthy people have pulled their money from the markets and are just waiting to see what happens. With cash, they can take advantage of a challenged market ala 2008.
After ignoring the problem, or just accepting and reprinting the band aid fixes to the PIIGS, the US media is now fueling the fear. Thomas Freidman's piece today is simplistic but a concise account of reasons for fear. The biggest surprise to me was that 2 weeks ago, Nouriel Roubini was interviewed in the WSJ and he basically said Capitalism has failed and Karl Marx was right (simplistic version). I was very surprised the WSJ ran it (video interview). Not really a rallying cry for the economy.
Thy sky is falling! The sky is falling!
w67th, apt23's backdoor needs you.
"Nouriel Roubini ......... basically said Capitalism has failed and Karl Marx was right (simplistic version)"
Yes, I was like WTF??? Jeez, now I gotta ditch Roubini? I dislike Friedman, so who should I read?
apt23, lemme get really micro: how does this effect Manhattan co-op prices? up? down? all cash is the way to go?
grazie!!!
apt23: if you haven't seen this, you may find it interesting.
http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2011/09/europe-201109
michael lewis' take on how and why german banks got into trouble.
>apt23, lemme get really micro: how does this effect Manhattan co-op prices? up? down? all cash is the way to go?
All of the bad news means that prices will go to $500psf, no ifs ands or buts.
do you ever stop?
last night you suggested that Riversider go somewhere dangerous to walk his dog. And you ask if I stop?
Just days ago you were making Nazi salutes. And you ask if I stop?
I'll read that, cc.
Based on the little I know, look at Allied Irish Bank (I think that's the name): they got so rooked by US/Manhattan RE developers & owners. They naively invested in some hugely over priced RE & got took. I think this happened to a bunch of Euro banks.
michael lewis always has his own way of putting things; his description of german bankers trying to contend with wall street sharpies is hilarious.
But of course columbiacounty appreciated the talk of "the country’s Nazi past" because days ago he was making Nazi salutes right here on streeteasy.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/27766-sp-downgrades-us-to-aa?page=2
columbiacounty
3 days ago
ignore this person
report abuse
Sieg heil.
and this:
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/27963-carving-out-small-bedroom
columbiacounty
2 days ago
ignore this person
report abuse
sieg heil.
Thanks for the link, CC.
"So, w67, take your victory lap too. If this Sh##storm continues, $500psf will come to be the most prescient -- and the earliest-- call on the financial problems in NY RE."
So take a victory lap for something that hasn't even happened yet? I don't mind gutsy, contrarian calls. I just wish one of you might explain why $500psf vs some other number. Is there going to be continued downward pressure on NYC real estate? Most likely. But that ain't enough to arbitrarily throw out some number and repeat it ad nauseum. And so far, apt23, you've only drawn us the picture of European banks. As dwell asked, get us to the Manhattan story from there.
And for the record, there were more than enough doom and gloomers before w67th came around. So not sure how he'd be the "most prescient and the earliest."
CC: I always love reading Michael Lewis.
Dwell: The problem with the Euro banks was that the ECB allowed them to take on sovereign debt without raising capital allocations. So, they piled into high yielding sovereign debt much like our US banks piled into sub prime --that was where the money was.
If there is a global debt crisis -- which apparently can be averted if Europe makes structural changes which they can't seem to get behind politically-- RE is going down everywhere. Micro/macro doesn't matter. Take a look at this guy, Sat Das, a renowned bear. But I have seen other moderate economists verify his numbers on ECB/EFSF/EMS. Read through this and then tell yourself he is half wrong. Even half wrong, would you buy RE or leave your money in the market? I have been taking money out of the equity market slowly for 9 months. Every time my advisors fought me. Last month they stopped fighting and told me to liquidate everything. I thought maybe it was my age (we are preparing for early retirement) but then saw that David Kelly at JPM, a sober, sensible, optimistic analyst said the S&P could go to 800. If that happens, and there is a global credit crisis, give me your prediction for RE.
If the latest bailout for Greece fails (due to Finland and others insisting on guarantees for their loans) then we will see if the ECB is swimming naked as Dat suggests. Unless they apply another band aid which the markets don't seem to be buying anymore
http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php/featuredcommentaryview?art_id=10557
apt23,
"Every time my advisors fought me. Last month they stopped fighting and told me to liquidate everything."
Good for you! Yes, victory lap!
Thanks for this info. Hope you post more.
What do you think about Roubini's statement re: Marx? Nervous breakdown?
Nervous breakdown?
apt23?
Say it ain't so.
I'm not a finance person, but I find it difficult to differentiate between bears vs. prescience. I guess it depends on track record & reasoning.
It's all theoretical until the sh*t hits & only in hindsight is someone deemed prescient.
according to apt23, the sh*t has already hit
CC: Loved the Michael Lewis article. But it certainly underscores that there is no easy way out of this mess politically.
This is the worst time ever in the history of the world. Worst time. Everything is going to hell. America is a country of loser tax avoiders (like apt23 who acknowledged on streeteasy trying to avoid NYC and NYS taxes). We can never recover. The sky is falling, the sky is falling.
Just have to love the negative negative attitude of a woman who has never worked a day in her life, depending on her husband and relatives, and handouts.
shouldn't w67th be showing up about now? Been 8 hours without anyone farting, burping or groping on StreetEasy and seeking acknowledgment of a brilliant ability to be negative about the world but brag about himself at the same time.
apt23 is still in heat needing the backdoor treatment: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/25684-w-67s-prediction-come-to-pass-thru-the-backdoor
Did we need another alarmist posting from apt23 dripping with her trademark wacko narcissism?
It's just ridiculous for apt23 to act like she had some special insight into the euro crisis. Geez -- there have been innumerable articles on these issues, with plenty of commentators taking very negative views. Really -- she's nuts.
Victory lap for what? There is no sign whatsoever that we are heading toward 500psf in Manhattan. So, on this REAL ESTATE TALK FORUM, what has apt23 ever gotten right? Nothing.
What apt23 does is repeat alarmist arguments of all stripes and makes no effort to reconcile them. When will she explain her views that europe will implode and that the dollar will collapse, leading to 500psf prices in manhattan???????????
In reality, if w67 said "400 psf on cpw" then apt23 would agree. If some commentator predicts complete civil chaos throught Europe, she will agree. She agrees with a wide variety of negative views ("securitization dead for a generation") and applies no analytical skills to any of it.
but really reallynow, apt23 is being attacked by trolls (btw is the definition of a troll someoneone who is grey, like me and w67 and columbiacounty and aboutready and alanhart?) so therefore apt23 is correct and righteous in her negativity, er... realism.
in reality, if w67 said "400 psf on cpw" then apt23 would agree. If some commentator predicts complete civil chaos throught Europe, she will agree. She agrees with a wide variety of negative views ("securitization dead for a generation") and applies no analytical skills to any of it.
Really now-- really needs to look at the big picture. And analytical skills have nothing to do with the direction on NYC real Estate Prices. There were a lot of analyst telling people real estate prices will not come down. My favorite analyst or economist once said- We are in a new economy.... We dont have to worry about a real estate prices. He actually said, "real estate prices have never gone on nationally" the only time that happened was in the 1930s when there was a great depression. The chairman of the Fed said that-- Alan Greenspn.. that should have been a warning.. that's when the smart money started to sell, get out or short the market anyway they could!!
Since I have never seen a post from reallynow and the language is remarkably similar to huntersberg, and the references are years old yet this seems to be a new poster, I am loathe to respond. I am not being alarmist, and I do post many articles that reconcile these positions. I am not generating the data, only posting data from vetted economists, traders and historians who are not receiving attention of the front pages of the daily newspapers. You can choose to ignore it.
My point on this thread was that posters were wondering why W67 was saying I should take a victory lap and I was explaining that early this year, there were European commentators and economists that were providing info that the European banks were insolvent. US Media was not covering it. In April or May, I challenged sidelinesitter to post one US article where it was claimed that the banks were insolvent and he couldn't find one. It was one explanation for why the markets went up every time a "fix" was announced for Greece.
In the same way, you can see that the head of the IMF said last week that the Euro banks need to be recapitalized and yet the Euro markets are up today. It takes a while for the markets to reconcile. Perhaps there will be a happy outcome where foreign entities arrive to provide "tarp" money to resolve the problems in Europe but until then, there is a lot of risk in the markets -- including real estate. There will be those that make money on situations like this but only those that can take on a lot of risk. ie the very wealthy.
reallynow=crazyburg
I assume I'm crazyberg, right falcogold1. And you are the epitome of sanity and good spelling.
Anyway, you think I'm reallynow - because only 1 person can disagree with apt23?
Did you read this discussion that apt23 also started: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/25684-w-67s-prediction-come-to-pass-thru-the-backdoor ? That discussion had many posters, none of whom could come to apt23's absurd conclusion.
And I can't be reallynow if I'm also julia, right?
Hey apt23... nice call on euro debt... the preview was awesome... me thinkz I'll pony up for the full length movie.
Get your popcorn. Butter and vodka.
Yes, W67, it will be quite the show. Although the big gala won't be till the end of the month, there is a pre-party on Sept.7. The Schnapps will be flowing (you must read the Michael Lewis piece that CC posted in this thread). The list of Finland demands for Greece is also an amazing read. They pretty much want the Greek patrimony to be put is escrow. And with the first whiff of ouzo on the collective breath of the country, it will be hauled over and taken over by the EU without ever firing a bullet. Somehow methinks Greece will not accept those terms. Very interesting times we are living thru. The 100 year war of the Economists. Butter and vodka indeed.
chest bump!
Yes agreed on CC posted article.. I read it on the loooooooo in nyc or iz it just bathroom now? Funny funny funny article. Thxs CC
good read from cc--but we were left hanging on the key issue of did michael do charlotte??
i imagine her being quite deliberate about this
Anybody who has been reading the editorial page of the FT rather than the useless WSJ editorial page has seen all this coming for quite a while. I believe slow motion train wreck is the term often used.
agreed malthus--the vf article provided little new info re the euro disaster, but it did put some funny spin on things
of course he did.