Housing crisis is over

LOL.

"The boom made housing unaffordable for many American families, especially first-time home buyers. During the 1990s and early 2000s, it took 19% of average monthly income to service a conforming mortgage on the average home purchased. By 2005 and 2006, it was absorbing 25% of monthly income. For first time buyers, it went from 29% of income to 37%. That just proved to be too much.

Prices got so high that people who intended to actually live in the houses they purchased (as opposed to speculators) stopped buying. This caused the bubble to burst.

Since then, house prices have fallen 10%-15%...."

WHERE?

The only way to know if the housing crisis is REALLY over is when stupid monkeys like these stop trying to pick their bottoms.

THAT's when it will be over. Till then, you will see time and again, different monkeys trying to pick their bottoms.

Quite frankly, it's hilarious. Oh really? Is the crisis over?

Then riddle me this:

Why did the US House just approve a $300 BILLION anti-foreclosure bill?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aRtzYp_OzosY&refer=home

Ohhh, right. It's because the housing crisis is over!

BS- they know what's up. And they are really scared. They are so frightened that they are firing every possible bullet they have in their arsenal. Fed included.

Hmmmm.... A hedge fund guy writing an opinion piece in the Journal. Ya think maybe he's long real estate?

Just saying.

From the article:

``We're in a recession and a major cause of that recession is the subprime crisis,'' Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, said today on the House floor. ``We do not see any alternatives to this bill to try to work on that.''

So on the one hand, we have stupid monkey who wrote and article on the Journal picking yet again, another bottom (google NY Times archive and you will see how many stupid monkeys tried to pick their bottoms in the last housing recession who were all wrong).

Then on the other hand, we have politicians who have the power of $300 BILLION who publicly acknowledge the severity of the ongoing crisis.

LMAO.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/24518179

Buffett Real Estate CEO Sees Housing Comeback

Peltier (Buffet Real Estate CEO) is smart enough to stop short of being quoted as saying "this is the bottom!"

I agree with Peltier assessment, and the established of equilibrium or in his words, normalization. That's what I'm looking for.

That, however, will take some time as we are clearly NOT in normalization or equilibrium here in the Manhattan market.

Juiceman ---- I have a bridge to sell you . . . .

All Juiceman did was post an article. Steve and the other fascist bears on this board have been posting their articles on how the market is going to further decline for months now. Juiceman posts one positive one and everyone attacks him? It's quite funny how people pick and choose the articles that seem to suit their beliefs. They are just articles, it's not like Nostradamus is writing any of these things.

sweet, I need a bridge.

Juice that was funny.

i'm actually still laughing........................"sweet,I need a bridge"

Hey how come this was not posted on May 6th. I could of bought my condo 2 day earlier before the rush. HAHAH.

wait a second, NYC real estate brokers and the bulls here have for years said that manhattan real estate is insulated, not correlatted and just plain different to what goes on elsewhere in the US housing market. Now, the rest of the country has been getting absolutely crushed for 2 years now and perhaps you could make the case for a bottom (particlarly if the FHA gets incolved) although im still thinking 2010. However, back at the ranch here in manhattan, where we are uncorrelated to the rest of the US real estate market, has bottomed after a small blip because the rest of the country MIGHT be doing so? ....sorry brokers, can't have it both ways....

West81st, how do you get "long" real estate? Home builders? Not relevant here.

Since when is Ron Peltier - who runs a real estate brokerage firm with an interest in the market - Warren Buffett? Do you see Warren buying Hovnovian?

Doubtful.

But eventually, things will right themselves. They always do.

joepa, "fascist bears"? Really? All I did is repost part of the article and add my own personal laughter: WHERE?

You're lame.

"The only way to know if the housing crisis is REALLY over is when stupid monkeys like these stop trying to pick their bottoms. THAT's when it will be over."

I'll give a $ to the first person who can tell me what that means.

Steve,

You can go long RE by betting on the ABX index (subprime mortgages). John Paulson just made nearly $4bn for himseld (and multiples of that for his funds) by shorting the ABX last year.

Of course, neither the ABX trade nor the article above are directly relevant to the Manhattan RE mkt.

JuiceMan, you are an evil, evil person. Tomorrow morning, when I have my breakfast, it'll be no juice, just Tang, non shade grown decaf coffee and milk with rbST.

Steve: There are plenty of direct and indirect RE plays available to a hedge fund manager. Some go right to the heart of this forum's subject matter, like project finance for development or condo conversion.

Is that how you made your money, poorishlady? (ie, selling bridges)

To a hedge fund manager? Alas, I am not that.

Fascist bear says, "7,711 open listing in Manhattan, even WITH 'has address' (which isn't necessary)."

Stevejhx: The author of that Op-Ed piece in the Journal is a hedge fund guy; hence my reference to him possibly being long real estate. I have no way of knowing, of course. My point was simply that, like most opinion-piece writers - bullish or bearish - he probably has an agenda, and it's unlikely to be public enlightenment.

By the way, an article on the front page of today's Times discusses the ways private equity funds are changing the regulated rental landscape.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/09/business/09rent.html?hp

I refuse to believe anyone has an agenda and that everyone gives their opinions without bias. For example, just because steve has an ownership interest in Archstone and nybits.com, it doesn't mean that he will be illogically bearish.

No, JM, I have an ownership interest in one co-op on Fire Island with a crazy co-op board (as always). I don't like real estate as an investment - too illiquid - so not even archstone or nybits.

If I thought real estate were properly priced right now - cheaper than renting, as it is half the time - then I'd buy in and lock in the rate. Unfortunately, it's twice as expensive as renting even though you don't think so and won't use the unbiased formula published by the Fed about imputed rents to prove it b/c you're afraid of the result.

Check out that article - EVERY time imputed rent goes far above market rents, the market crashes. EVERY time.

Which article?

Does Steve have an ownership interest in nybit and Archstone? Hmmm...

It seems pretty unlikely that Steve has an ownership issue in Archstone since it was taken private by Tishman Speyer and Lehman brothers last year.

I used to own a few shares in Archstone when it was public; turned out to be a decent investment mostly because it got bought. :-)

Great article Juice. You had to know that article was going to piss off losers likes stevjhx, MMAfia and the most recent board idiot dco. Well Done Bravo

spunky- I appreciate you noticing. Coming from you is a true honor. Check out all the down arrows spunky and then tell me who the true idiot is. Things are looking worse by the day.

FYI- Unlike you I do read all pertinent information. I don't pick and choice what fits my analysis.

MMAfia - stupid monkeys. You're so funny. Hey, it's Friday. How about a rousing conversation about equilibrium to end the week good ad proper. You know, the topic I know nothing about...and just google.
:)

Didn't piss me off in the least, spunky. It did give me a laugh, however, since the fundamental premise - that property prices have already fallen 20% - hasn't even come close to having happened here.

And now the Citigroup has taken on the title of the Incredible Shrinking Bank, things look even brighter. I remember when I was working at BofA in the 80's when we had that title: things were very bright indeed, as everybody got laid off.

I'm glad that JM is finally seeing the future!

eah, lol! equilibrium, normalization, stupid monkeys... what is this world coming to? =D

MMAfia's got all his assets in Gold and rents in a three family house in Elisabeth NJ. Yet he comes off like a know it all. He thinks he's Jim Rogers but he's really just a loser. Even Stevejhx thinks MMAfis investments in Gold is just plain stupid.

Isn't Jim Rogers losing his ass in China?

stevejhx: Although stabilization of housing market nationwide would have little DIRECT relevance to Manhattan, it would mitigate one of the big threats to the economy generally and the financial industry in particular. So, in that INDIRECT sense, a bottom in places like Miami and Detroit would help Manhattan asset values to avoid following the rest of the country downhill. That doesn't mean we wouldn't see a correction, but it's less likely to be a death spiral if the rest of the country shows signs of perking up.

West81st- There is a great article on MSN about another sub-prime meltdown except this time it will be "prime" borrowers. FYI the mortgage reset have not even started in over 90% of the loans and they still can't afford their homes. That means people who are doing their best and have managed to avoid being delinquent are going to have an even harder time. The increase on foreclosures will continue for sometime.

Great point, west81st. As always, you are fair and balanced!

This goes to my earlier posts that a rising tide lifts all boats.

Steve can now cite several examples of boats that have sunk during rising tides. :-)

W81, how can people on the one hand say that Miami's housing market is irrelevant to Manhattan's, yet then say, "in that INDIRECT sense, a bottom in places like Miami and Detroit would help Manhattan asset values to avoid following the rest of the country downhill."

That is completely untrue. The only thing that's true is that property prices are 100% correlated to income * leverage (+ wealth for the down payment part). Regardless of the different reasons that Miami and Las Vegas and San Diego and Manhattan prices rose, the fact is that they rose far faster than incomes, which in NYC - unlike Miami and Las Vegas and San Diego - are FALLING.

You're the same bunch who claimed that Wall Street bonuses were propping up real estate (which they were) and now try to deny that the Wall Street triage - like Citibank shedding 20% of its assets - will have any effect on property prices. Or Merrill Lynch, or Bear Stearns (who?), or Lehman Brothers, or Morgan Stanley - all shedding jobs and assets at a rapid place.

You guys should study the banking industry a little bit before making your wild claims about what's going to save Manhattan real estate. You should study what happened to create this mess, rather than making up pie-in-the-sky stories.

JuiceMan, what does Jim Rodgers have to do with this?

Steve... reality check.... Manhattan real estate does not need saving.

Not saying that we're in a boom period or that things won't contract a little bit, but we're not Miami 2007.

Reminds me of when I complain about all the rude people here in NYC and then I remember that I am in... well, somewhere else.

By the way, do you have any interest in NYBits or Archstone? Inquiring minds want to know.

stevejhx: I don't know how people can reconcile those statements. I can't reconcile them, and I haven't tried to. A sick national housing market is mostly bad for the economy in general and the financial services industry in particular, and therefore mostly bad for New York, although the effects are complex, indirect and mixed. For example, the slump isn't necessarily bad for distressed-asset players and other bottom-fishers. But the overall effect must be negative.

"We're not Miami 2007."

Just you wait and see. Check out the inventory figures, and Wall Street bonuses, and resetting ARM's, and new inventory coming online.

We're only at the beginning.

Keep you eyes on the hamptons for early indications. And where is this spring selling season that was soppose to save NYC.

Steep price declines and interest-rate resets will have even prime borrowers simply walking away from their mortgage obligations.

By Mark Gimein, Slate

I thought this was a great article that shows how the crisis will not over and will re-appear just as bad.

California is to mortgage lending what Chicago is to pork bellies. For years, that meant it was a place with soaring house values; today, the foreclosure rate across the state is twice the national average and going up fast. Riverside County, outside Los Angeles, may be the foreclosure capital of the country, with a rate close to six times the national average. And housing prices are in free fall.

California should be the poster child for a mortgage-loan bailout. In few other places have so many taken on such onerous debts with so little equity. Unfortunately, the crisis in California is going to get much worse, and no bailout will solve it. Why? Because if the first stage of the foreclosure crisis was about people who could not afford their mortgages, the next stage will be about people who have every reason not even to try to pay their mortgages.

Over the next several months, we're going to be subjected to a chorus of complaints about the moral turpitude of people who walk away from their mortgages and pronouncements like the warning from Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson in March that people should honor their mortgage obligations. The problem with finger-wagging on what you "should" or "ought" to do is that, when it comes to money, you're usually given the lecture only when it's in your interest to do the opposite. Certainly, that's the case for all the California homeowners who in the next year or two are going to find themselves with the choice of whether, faced with a huge new wave of interest-rate resets and a historic decline in the value of their homes, they will simply walk away.

More on MSN
A primer on foreclosure
Bargains: The sunny side of the housing slump
Lessons from 'Foreclosureville'
Slide show: How much house can you get for $220,000?
Facing foreclosure? Where to get help
MSN Money: Lenders cut off the home-equity tap
MSN Video: How to avoid foreclosure

First, those home prices: For a weird few months of the mortgage crisis, statisticians came up with peculiar numbers about home values, rolling out comforting stats showing single-digit declines. Well, that's over.

Last month, the California Association of Realtors (the folks who in October managed to project that prices would fall 4% in 2008) reported that, actually, California house prices in February fell 26% from a year ago. In the places where the foreclosure boom has hit hardest, it's worse.

A quick, almost random, survey of some foreclosure prices in Southern and Central California:

In San Bernardino, a house bought for $310,000 in 2005 is now being offered by the bank for $199,900.

A 2,000-square-foot ranch house in Rancho Santa Margarita is down from $775,000 to $565,000.

A starter home in Sacramento, sold for $215,000 in 2004, is now down to $129,900.
These are not sale prices. They are asking prices. Don't doubt that they are negotiable.

Unfortunately, when it comes to the California crash, these striking numbers are not the end. They are the beginning. (To give Paulson his due, he said that, too.) Which brings us to the other scary part of the California story: a coming wave of interest-rate resets in prime loans given to people with good credit that are just as bad as or worse than we've seen in subprime.

The most common subprime loans were known as "2/28" in the industry: 30 years, including a two-year teaser rate before the interest rate rose. Now these loans have reset, and we're seeing the fallout.

But prime borrowers, too, got loans that started out with low payments; if you bought or refinanced your house in the past few years, it's not unlikely that you have one. With an "option ARM" loan you have the "option" (which most borrowers happily take) of paying less than the interest; the magic of "negative amortization." The loan grows until you hit a specified point when the payment resets to close to twice where it was on Day 1. The exact point varies with the lender; with Countrywide, it'll come after about four and a half years.

Just two banks, Washington Mutual and Countrywide, wrote more than $300 billion worth of option ARMs in the three years from 2005 to 2007, concentrated in California. Others, including IndyMac and Golden West (the creator of the option ARM and now a part of Wachovia), wrote many billions more. The really amazing thing is that the meltdown in California is already happening and virtually none of these loans has yet reset.

Option ARM loans were heavily marketed to upper-tier home buyers in California. It's hard to know how bad the option ARM crisis will be before it actually happens, but Moe Bedard, an advocate in Southern California who advises homeowners on foreclosure and blogs about the crisis at Loansafe.org, says that the difference in the time until the rate rises is the main reason that upper-middle-class Orange County (now facing foreclosures at a rate merely twice the national average) hasn't yet been hit as badly as places such as Riverside.

When those dominoes start falling next year, we may or may not have a subprime bailout plan, and the discussion will start about how to bail out this next tranche of borrowers. The bailout plans on the table now, such as the one put forward by Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass. (one of Congress' genuinely cogent financial minds), are reasonably based on the principle of bringing payments down to a point that homeowners can afford.

But where prices fall 40% to 60%, all that goes out the window. Why? Because in expensive locales such as San Diego, tens of thousands of people with 100% loan-to-value mortgages and option ARMs are living in homes in which they have no equity and on which they owe a lot more than the house is worth.

In these places, accepting a government "bailout" that pays them, say, 90% of the value of the house to keep from foreclosing will be very tough for lenders, who (if the appraisers don't fudge the numbers) could be forced to take 36 cents or 45 cents on the dollar for their loans. On the other hand, any plan that makes them pay more if they can afford it is hugely disadvantageous for the borrowers, who have option ARMs about to reset and are much better off handing the keys to bank — and maybe even scooping up the foreclosed house down the street.

If you're one of the "homedebtors" (a fantastic neologism coined by the anonymous blogger IrvineRenter on the Irvine Housing Blog) in this position, you might start thinking very seriously about just how attached you are to the wisteria vine snaking over the basketball hoop on your garage. That's what a lot of other California borrowers will be doing.

Home Affordability Calculator Yearly gross income $
Monthly debt payments $
Cash avail. for purchase $

The luckiest of those are the ones who used option ARMs to buy a house. For them, walking away is easy: Their loans are "nonrecourse," and the lenders can't go after them for more than the value of the house. The choice is harder for those who used the loans to refinance. The quirks of real-estate law regarding refi loans make it possible (though not necessarily easy) for lenders to try to get back more money even after taking the house.

If you think, however, that should make lenders a lot happier, forget it. LoanSafe's Bedard says that even in this group, most of the option ARM borrowers he talks to — some of them living in $800,000 houses — are already considering walking away from their deeply depreciated homes as soon as the rates reset.

Bet on this: Whatever moral qualms are being urged on borrowers to keep them from walking away from their mortgages, they'll count for a lot less than the economic reality facing borrowers whose homes have fallen in value by half. Lenders had no reservations about selling borrowers loans with rising payments that would be poisonous in a rising market. Now it seems borrowers have no reservations about leaving those lenders with the risks they begged to take.

Yes, going through a foreclosure kills your credit rating and makes it a lot harder to buy a new house. But as more and more prime borrowers go into foreclosure, it's perfectly possible that buying a new home a year later will soon be as routine and unsurprising as the once-inconceivable idea that you can get a whole batch of new credit cards two years after a bankruptcy.

Of course, all those people stuck between rising mortgages and falling prices are free to follow Paulson's advice: Keep making payments on an outsized mortgage and take a bullet for the greater economic good. Fortunately for them, and perhaps unfortunately for the economy, a lot of them will come to the realization that they just don't have to.

Find a new home or apartment

"We're only at the beginning"

I vaguely remember you saying a few weeks ago that we were half-way there. Now we're only at the beginning. Is this like the game Sorry - did someone bump us back?

joepa, you're confusing me with someone else - never did I say that we were halfway there in the housing market. Ever.

Not even close. Watch the inventory numbers rise to over 10k by August.

LOL.

I could swear you said it. Between the number of posts you have and how slow this server is, I'm not going to even try to find it but - a free pair of tube socks to the person who does.

So Steve, you think it's lots of laughs if the economy tanks in NYC, people are put out of their jobs, and what ever else happens?? (Increased crime would be hoot, wouldn't it?)

PS- So you never clearly answered the question ... do you have an ownership interest or other clear business interest in Archstone Apts or NYbits.com?

It would clearly explain your efforts to talk down the sales market, drive people into rentals.

It is amazing how many people are wishing housing prices crash because they were too scared to buy in the recent past. Prices aren't going to crash in NYC my friends, and in a year you will be kicking yourselves for not getting in during the narrow window of the soft market we just went through.

It is amazing how many people think they can call a market top or bottom.

The Economist has a piece on this today:

http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11333030

we just went through, as Liccomment says??? Well, the market will continue soft for a hip-hop minute, I do believe. It's not too late to get a bit of action in this buyers' market. Have fun, home-seekers!!

Steve - Wasn't that tough to find afterall:

"I guess if you were a Wall Street hotshot Master of the Universe & just lost your job, you gotta bail fast and head for Charlotte.

I said 2004 prices. We're already halfway there!"

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/3541-barrow-street-pricechop

Disclaim away.

LICComnent- I own a home why in the world would I wish home prices to fall. If you ever read my posts you will see that I hope I'm dead wrong on my predictions. The truth is that I'm making these predations based on market indicators. So I get bored watching TV and want to blog about my thoughts on the economy and the NYC real estate. You shouldn't take everything to heart. If my analysis turns positive at anytime I'll surely let anyone who is interested know.

If anyone is interested I'll share with you the next shoe to that is going to drop. Just an opinion based on market indicators. Otherwise I don't want to upset anybody.

What's amazing is that there are still people out there who feel that those who don't buy today will regret it in one year, while I am fairly certain that people who don't sell today will regret it in one year. I know "that's what makes horse racing", but in this particular instance, it should be so painfully obvious that I'm right, and that those who disagree with me are wrong, that it has to almost make you wonder that if there are people out there who are that stupid, and they are part of the human race, do we really have a chance at survival? I mean, as a species. Is it possible we'll make it, say, another 3 or 4 years? Or is this collective group of people who think that there is actually more room for the NYC real estate market to appreciate, such that ANYONE will regret not having purchased today - is this group going to actually play some role in our utter destruction?

dmag2020 are you sure you are not Stevejhx

There is a fifth dimension beyond that which is known to man. It is a dimension as vast as space and as timeless as infinity. It is the middle ground between light and shadow, between science and superstition, and it lies between the pit of man's fears, and the summit of his knowledge. This is the dimension of imagination. It is an area which we call ... dmag2020's mind.

joepa, good work.

steve, why aren't you honest. I've challenged you before and you said that you weren't happy about the prospect of a fall but clearly you are, I mean whats with the LOL? Same with dco, says he doesn't want housing prices to fall? are you kidding me, whats up with the glee displayed in many posts?

joepa, I'm glad you research what I do and take it entirely out of context. That quote was for a single apartment whose price had been lowered to the 2006 price. We're in 2008, I said 2004, the price was 2006.

Ergo, halfway, on one apartment.

Moron.

And - LOL.

The correction in housing hasn't even begun yet. I've been through this before.

man are you full of it

stevejhx - Вы неправы насчёт Майами. . You are a kitchen-variety revolutionary of whatever denomination.

Come on, guys. Look at Stevejhx's remark in context. If you're familiar with his sophomoric style, it's pretty clear he was joking about the whole market being "halfway there" when discussing one apartment.

That said, I'm impresseed by joepa's memory and detective work.

Doesn't anyone think that the credit crisis was a collective moment of panic for holders of CMOs and their derivatives whose panic assumed that 100% of the mortgages in America would default? Or, say, a mere 85% of all mortgages would go to foreclosure? I do. And therefore, even though resets for subprimes and resets for not-subprimes may have only just begun and the defaults of some of them has long ago been priced into the collapsed value of the CMOs and derivatives because as bad as it gets across the US is not as bad as the assumption built into that collective moment of panic. Wall Street may have a terrific 2009 on the credit side. They've written all their junk down to zero, when it's really only worth somewhere between the pre-panic fantasy and the post-panic zero.

Real estate prices have not gone down everything in the USA, by the way. But I agree it's overpriced in New York City.

oooo, a typo. In English it should be "has not gone down everywhere."

westelle, ¿qué cono estás hablando con esa mierda de letra del demonio? ¡Hueles a azufre!

y es, "coño" - ¡disculpen!

And Joepa, if you read the entire thread you will see that the comment refers to 2006 being halfway between 2008 and 2004. No other reading is possible.

It's people like you and houser and juiceman and now westelle - who's coming across as slightly imbalanced with the Communist comment - who can't use facts or come up with a single reason why the highly overpriced Manhattan real-estate market is going to stay that way - because there isn't a reason. Before it was propped up because of Wall Street, but now that Wall Street is in triage it's not going to matter because everything's been written off so there's no way to go but up.

Yup. Makes sense to me. All those lost, highly-paid jobs aren't going to matter, nor are tightened credit and mortgage underwriting standards. That, and I'm a kitchen-variety Communist who voted for Bloomberg.

Yup.

stevejhx - so you don't even know what language I typed in! Another faux-pas of yours, you fraud. That was by no means any one you know.

уже Вам, кажется, ответил на другом форуме, что все может помочь, особенно перспектива учебы - сильный аргумент.

:0

westelle, calling somebody a Communist is so the 1950's.

steve - I said you are not a communist. Read the post.
People, it's getting to be retarded. What's the point of this? Thre's no more information, no fun, no educated guesses. Yuk.

I didn't take the original quote seriously. Heaven knows I didn't think that Steve actually thought the market had corrected itself in any way. I just noted that he made the comment, which he denied and then (like a 2-bit politician caught with a stained dress) tried to disclaim. I am now treating myself to a pair of tube socks.

Really, joepa?

The original post was, "We're not Miami 2007."

I said, "Just you wait and see. Check out the inventory figures, and Wall Street bonuses, and resetting ARM's, and new inventory coming online. We're only at the beginning."

You said, "I vaguely remember you saying a few weeks ago that we were half-way there. Now we're only at the beginning. Is this like the game Sorry - did someone bump us back?"

I said, "joepa, you're confusing me with someone else - never did I say that we were halfway there in the housing market. Ever. Not even close. Watch the inventory numbers rise to over 10k by August."

You said, "Steve - Wasn't that tough to find after all: "I guess if you were a Wall Street hotshot Master of the Universe & just lost your job, you gotta bail fast and head for Charlotte. I said 2004 prices. We're already halfway there!"

I said, "I'm glad you research what I do and take it entirely out of context. That quote was for a single apartment whose price had been lowered to the 2006 price. We're in 2008, I said 2004, the price was 2006. Ergo, halfway, on one apartment. Moron."

That's right - read the context: 2006 is halfway between 2004 and 2008.

Moron.

steve, is the fact that you argue with me even when I'm not posting a sign of admiration?

If dco actually offered reasonable opinions based on rational complete market analysis, I could take him seriously, but all he does is give nonsensical comments based on innuendo and misinformation. Take it from someone in investment banking, the market indicators show that we are in the final stages of the subprime downturn. Most banks in the US have written their subprime assets down. They are still in the delevering process, which could play out for up to a year (if not sooner) before the banks get comfortable increasing risk levels. There is a tremendous level of assets on the sidelines now waiting for credit markets to stabilize. Once this happens, we will see a growth trend in real estate markets again, albeit at a much more moderate pace than the last growth spurt. We will also see the financial services companies and banks increase staff again. In NYC, supply and demand trends and the weak US dollar have kept prices from dropping sharply and should continue to keep the real estate market stable in the short-term. Of course, you can not consider any of the above and just listen to dco pull numbers out of thin air for his "opinions" and "predictions."

LICComment- Tell it to your friends who are getting laid off by the day that everything is going to rebound overnight. At least I'm willing to set time line. You just predict a recovery sometime in the future. Well that's helpful. The credit problem is not getting better anytime soon. Yes jobs will come back but when 3,6,9,12,18 months or 2 years. Perhaps these banks will realize that they never need all this dead weight to begin with. The truth is at least I'm will to stick my neck out with a prediction that can be measured you LIC just say everything is A OK and we will be better sometime in the future, when ever that is. Why don't you just give it a rest and try to bring something to the discussion instead of saying that other people's comments are not worthy of your reading.

If you actually read my comment dco, you would see substantive commentary. I am still waiting for you to say anything substantial and accurate in your comments to back up your "predictions."

westelle, you are so right, i had thought this website is all about information and smart debate, it ends up people beckering and then calling each other names. there is one person..who shall remain namless.... would make this site more informative and fun with real debate if he stays away, infact i know people will not use the discussion board here and have turned away from street easy because his baised negativity..i just wish he would get a real job and stop bothering us on these boards...

as my three year old would say..super yuck

on another note..we made an offer on two apts yesterday to combine, and one of the apts we gave an offer $44,000 less than what they wanted. the sponsor wouldnt even hear of it and talk to us, didnt even come back with a counter offer..i couldnt beleive that they would lose the sale of two apts because of what would be less than 3 % of the over all cost.

developers whether in new construction or covnersion regardless whether the crisis is over, nearly over or no where in sight will not negogiate and can afford to wait until things either improve or stablize.

Solet me get this right you want only positive comments about the markets and NYC real estate. I'm sorry I refuse to lie.

"i know people will not use the discussion board here and have turned away from street easy because his baised negativity..i just wish he would get a real job and stop bothering us on these boards...

You can say something negative if you have some data or rationale that is intelligent and unbiased to support it. dco never does. When you tell people that you just have an opinion that their homes are worth half of what they actually are valued at, you are practically insulting people.

that's not what i am saying, but i dont think it's acceaptable for a discussion turns into:

'I said, "I'm glad you research what I do and take it entirely out of context. That quote was for a single apartment whose price had been lowered to the 2006 price. We're in 2008, I said 2004, the price was 2006. Ergo, halfway, on one apartment. Moron."

That's right - read the context: 2006 is halfway between 2004 and 2008.

Moron.'

the fact people start calling each other names is beyond my comprehension..

i come to this board to get educated, not to hear someone crusead to get everyone in manhtaan to rent versus buying..

i dont want anyone to lie but how many times one person will ask a simple question whether about a mortgage or certian area to buy and some how it turns into if you buy u and your family will starve and little annie will be searching for food stamps to have dinner.. and renting makes much more sense and we get half a page on why..

that's what im talking about...

sfo- point taken.

LiCComent- I dont know who started war of the words first. I have never said that anybody's purchase was stupid. I have said that I would advise on not buying now because of obvious reason. I think that people can save a lot of money in the future by waiting. That's a big difference from saying your stupid for buying. Truly I'm confused. One one hand you say that I'm just full of hot air and the other you seem very concerned about my opinions and there effect on people. I thought no one listened to my opinions or predictions.

sfo - you're right. I observe no urgency on the sellers' side. It almost feels like they're waiting for this artificial panic to pass. I put my place on the market 9 days ago to see what happens, and got 2 full asking price offers. The real estate in Manhattan is much less speculative than in other places, and the prices are not going to drop 50% just because of some evil wishing of these posters. Less speculation = more stability.

Hey sfo, without defending anyone's argument here, because I don't think the Bear side ones are strong enough (although I am very bearish), what IF these guys were right? What if anyone who does buy now ends up, to use your gross exaggeration, starving? We know it won't come to that, but what if net worths are destroyed as a Manhattan RE Market crashes amongst heavy unemployment, where owners are forced to walk away from their apartments because they can't afford the mortgage and they can't sell for more than the note on the place, how can steve and dco be faulted for trying their hardest to prevent the disaster by renting at half the cost?

or, rather, by encouraging people to rent at half the cost. And what are you afraid of anyway, if its is such a strong market, so unique, you think the few people that log onto streeteasy, read the message boards and decide to rent are going to affect the market? And even if they did, and the market goes down 10 or 20%, what do you care, you are probably a long term buyer. You aren't selling anytime soon, and hey, its New York, it'll come back some day. Right? Or are you worried about something?

the answer to that dmag is simple, its not the message, its the way they communicate it.

the answer to that one is even simpler, no one thinks steve and his crew are going to affect the market, they're just annoying. people like this board and some things have happened as described by sfo above

dmag2020, i agree with ccdevi that its not the message but how its communicated and how if anyone offers a different opnion, hells breaks loose..

i once offered my own personnel experince in the bay area when the dotcom bust happened where everyone was waiting for prices to hit rock bottom in san francisco it never did, and how i learned that when the market is going down or stablising people wait but when it goes up people start chasing the market and all hte crazy bidding start. i got a response going on and on basically for the sake to prove me wrong, nohting else..

i dont think people who are really intersted in buying will get affected by streeteasy board, but its great to be armmed with unbaised knoweldge and facts when making this discussion, specailly for someone like me that hasnt been in NY for too long.
however the over reaction of some makes itdiffcult and some might get discourged to share opnions or experince.

Ok - Not to be another one of those people trying to prove you wrong, but whenever any market comes down, most people are too afraid to buy. Case in point would be the day JPMorgan announced the Bear takeover at $2, what was it - a month ago? You could have bought any financial stock at half the price it was a year ago, or a 25% discount to today's price. That means you could have made 50% on your money in a month. Was anybody buying that day? No. Because it is human nature to be scared when the markets are down. We buy when markets are up. Does that mean that we are doing the right thing? Obviously, no. We LIKE to sell low and buy high. We are nuts. Now don't take this personally, because EVERYONE does this, including YOU. You are in the majority. Yes, the market is holding up, which is why people have the courage to come on here and talk about where to get a mortgage, what grill to get for their balcony, etc. The hard thing, believe it or not, is to get on here when everything looks fine and say "sell". or "Don't buy." No one is trying to "move the markets" as some people seem to suggest. It seems to me like just some good solid advice. The entire world's real estate markets are in turmoil, maybe this one will be next? I mean, if these guys shout at the top of their lungs what most people disagree with (as evidenced by the current stability of the market), good for them, they are bold and they may be onto something. I agree, the snottiness and the name calling should end, but then again they are provoked by the likes of houser/spunky and westelle. There is total obnoxiousness on both sides of the fence, by the way.

"There is total obnoxiousness on both sides of the fence, by the way."

Indeed. Not too long ago, if I had something bearish to post, no matter how well-founded, I'd have to take a deep breath before hitting Reply, knowing what the response would be.

An just to draw another parallel to the equity market, Manhattan can be viewed as the "Blue Chip" of the Real Estate Market. Investors make arguments going into corrective periods regarding the decoupling of our economy with the rest of the worlds, and the fact that a big stable company with revenue flow from around the globe with low pe's (read: less speculative) are more stable, and those companies do weather the storm far into a correction, until they don't, and they all get hit hard. And that's the day most people call up their brokers and tell them to sell. Well, Manhattan may not be speculative, but it certainly isn't trading at a low PE, in fact it is trading at the highest PE in the country, and it hasn't been hit yet. What's that you say? People live in their homes? They do, until they move out of them. Until they can't afford it anymore. Or until they feel like they've got enough to live on for a while until the economy comes back. Things can turn on a dime, especially in Real Estate. I could be wrong but I think the big misconception is that because it is less liquid, it is less volatile. I think it is more volatile for the very same reason. But only time will tell.

sfo - where were you looking in Manhattan?

fidi...i like the seaport area, it reminded me of fisherman's warf some what, has great school and see the potential in a few years. we dont care that there isnt a billion resturants around, infact i like the quitness on weekend and evenings.

we had made an offer back in july to 90 william but wanted them to take care of the transfer tax, they refused, so we decided to hold off, to us we just dont like stupid business discussion, if they would have taken the 10 % at that point nearly a year ago, they woudl have made that money in interst from the down payment.

does anyone think it's fair to compare the realestate market of manhattan to san francisco ? in terms of demand versus supply ?

Wow, I'm gone for a few hours, & look @ what you people write!

Juiceman: "sign of admiration"

Tee-hee-hee.

westelle: "It almost feels like they're waiting for this artificial panic to pass."

Artificial panic? You mean like Citigroup winding down (b/c no one will buy them) $400 billion in assets. No more BSC? Lehman cutting, Merrill Lynch cutting 15% of their workforce, Countrywide gone, innumerable nonbank lenders gone, is ARTIFICIAL!

Ha-ha-ha. Apparently, you are Russian, because you seem to know nothing about markets.

ccdevi: "no one thinks steve and his crew are going to affect the market, they're just annoying."

I have no plans to affect the market - unnecessary, and impossible for one man on a thread very few people read. Apparently, however, you must think you can affect the market.

LOL.

sfo: "fisherman's warf." Is this Star Trek: The Next Generation, and I missed it?

You people are UNREAL!

fo - as you see, discussion is over for now for obvious reasons.
Personally, I don't think Manhattan is comparable to SF( I lived there too): the size and difference in neighborhoods alone will make them too different.

people, this is exactly what i was talking about., for no reason you get attacked called names and i hope we can stop this get of behavior by not encourging and just ignoring it....

stakan...i think you are right, the one thing i have noticed since i still keep tabs on the real estate market out thier while the east bay market is starting to soften san francisco is still going very strong, we had friends over last week that just closed on a house in the marina, and htye had a bidding war, and to me the marina being the first place gone in an earth quake just surprised me.

sfo - Manhattan and SF are so unlike the rest of the country that I truly believe the common rules don't apply. People chose them for the unique reasons that cannot work anywhere else. I hope to keep talking to you on thos board despite those antisocial types.