Stock market thread

neutral for me here. one hand market sold off after hours with the FED announcement and we are now up on the day, we are at the 50MA so some resistance expected here. curiously volume low today with options expiration. i agree last hour may see some fireworks and some possibly great scalp trades.

Actually and don't laugh, helicopter traffic at the 34th st helipad has been a market guage for me.
No, I'm not following Sir Lawrence around to find out if he is purchasing Endicott Steel, but I can't ignore it outside my window. Heavier traffic 1 or 2 days prior does correlate to swings in the market.

Well, after all the talk about the discount rate hike, it was pretty much a non-event.

Dow 10,402.35 +9.45 (0.09%)
S&P 500 1,109.17 +2.42 (0.22%)
Nasdaq 2,243.87 +2.16 (0.10%)

Homebuilders: Slightly up to to unch'd.

wannabuy - looks like we had a 4 handle move in the last hour - not a huge move, but hope you made some coin.

truthskr10 - I'm sorry, I did laugh. I think your heli-pad indicator is just as valid as the ones the "pros" usethough...the darts. ;) But seriously, have you ever put on a trade based on the # of landings or do you use it as a general indicator? With regards to WS, I want to see part 2. The first one was a classic in my book.

Vintage65

Vintage65
Agreed, just as useful as darts...:) And no, haven't had the guts to act on it.
2 years ago, I noticed over a 3 month period that fridays were always falling 100 to 200 down and mondays up 100 to 200(noticed it 8 weeks in). My brother laughed at me 'til there was an article about it and of course after the article that coincidence ended.

Tell you what, I'll keep reporting here any major traffic and see where it goes. :)
Today was pretty light for a monday and if tomorrow is light too, I'd expect a weak week.

On WS2, most sequels are bad but I will look forward to it and be hopeful.

snapshot
10390.86 -11.49‎ (-0.11%‎) Feb 22 12:10pm ET

If it shows any correlation, I would keep it to myself. ;) If you have the time (or just bored) try overlaying a longer term chart of the landings against any of the major averages. Might be fun to watch.

today was a boring inside day. we are consolidating for a move to the highs of mid-january where we can expect more choppiness. once above we've got little resistance to pre-lehman levels. i know: the macroeconomic picture is supposedly grim but i prefer to make trading/investing decisions based on what is actually happening in the market. i prefer a market that keeps on disappointing the fundamentalists.

One measly helicopter yesterday. Picked up 1 person.
Zero copters today.

snapshot
10378.02 +95.61‎ (0.93%‎) Feb 24 12:26pm ET

Thanks for teh update truth,

After the horrible new home sales #'s today, it looked like we were headed south. Of course, Bernie to the resue! I won't rehash today's headlines, but I am confused/worried about a smaller headline that most people might not have seen.

Feb 24, 2009 - Bloomberg

"The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved a plan that will initially withhold data on the trading of securities backed by loans and leases even as regulators start to collect the information."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ah2RichgxXCo&pos=5

Why the SEC would want to do this? What could be still hiding after all the fallout already?
Hmmmm...

PS: When's teh SE speclhecker coiming?

why do so few americans actually believe in free market capitalism and want the government (other people) to provide so many benefits for them?

Why? I'm still waiting on an answer on why Charles Rangel is not in jail.
It's a functional whore house, keeping client #s 1 through 8 safe and they'll occassionally feed us a piano player.

Transparancy, ultimately a non sequitur approach when there is non enforcement.

why is anyone building new homes anyway, especially in CA, NV and FL? best to work off inventory

who is milton freedman?
who is ayn rand?
who is john galt?

why is america becoming so socialistic?

i find this socialistic argument odd. if people are so concerned about socialism they should give up the following that apply: medicare, medicaid, social security, mortgage tax deduction, don't drive on any roads or take any public transportation, don't call 911 and keep all your trash in your apt/house.

I will give up all the government programs and would appreciate a rebate check for taxes paid. Also, the trash and roads and other local services should be handled by the local government. I object the big clunky soviet style welfare state.

6 helicopters this morning but sporatic.

10413.69 +88.43‎ (0.86%‎) Monday Mar 1 11:10am ET

4 copters this morning and first one was a pickup, not even a drop off

10449.59 +45.80‎ (0.44%‎) Tuesday Mar 2 11:54am ET

truthskr10,

Thanks for the updates. I've been a bit busy so I haven't responded, but have looked at the mkts when you post. Although it's been a VERY short time, the landings do seem to have some correlation (half joking/half serious). But your most recent comment had me wondering. Are drop offs more significant than pick ups? Also, I meant to ask you earlier, during the bull markets, what's been a "high" # of landings? (Drop offs and/or pick ups)

BTW...There has been a few M&A deals the last few days. Hmmmm...
2nd BTW...I visited a firm where they filmed parts of "Wall St. 2". Now I have to watch it when it comes out. lol

Vintage65

Well that's the funny thing you know, now that I'm paying "extra" attention to it, these questions are popping up in my head. What's more significant....people coming or people going in the morning? How about luggage....the one's carrying just attache cases more important than full on luggage?
And now after that front page story on Paterson with the pic of the state helicopter, I know what that one looks like and it did land once on monday.
You know east 34th st could be considered an odd drop off. It's either less important to wall street or more important...how.....well someone who is all business may want to go directly there, but someone who may not want to be seen by peers at the pad may go to 34th st.

You know pre crash, there was daily non stop traffic with a queue at 8am (earliest allowable traffic) every day.
Most of 2009 it was a ghost pad. As the market popped back some traffic has since returned, I expect now helicopter traffic is more "must use" rather than "luxury perk."
And since these guys wake me up in the morning, it's hard not to notice them.
What really gave me a jolt with this correlation to the market was president's day. Though banks were closed (and I assume the market as well) traffic was ridiculous, one after another and the following day just as heavy.The market went on @ a 10 day run after that.
I guess my injecting side comments has me trying to convey, the count was not as important as the poor vibe I got from the traffic.
It's not to say the market will strictly correspond to the traffic, I'm really looking for that traffic that will spur the next multi day run.

BTW- zero copters this am
10459.71 +53.73‎ (0.52%‎) Wed Mar 3 11:10am ET

3 copters this morning, 1 was a mother, 2kids, and 2 dogs. I wonder what they charge for dogs.
Friday was busy with 5 or 6 but it was people leaving the city for the most part.
If tomorrow is quiet, I expect another lackluster market week.

Sorry to be a downer, but I think this recovery has a ways to go. I asked a cab driver over the weekend how business was, and he said he just switched from working the day to the night because the night shift is longer so there's at least more chance of picking up rides. He said that during the day, business is pretty much dead after the ues-moms-taking-their-kids-to-school rush is over. They're still not going to lunch or going shopping. (Or if they are, they're taking the subway.)

Only 2 copters this am and though I left pretty early, I doubt I missed more than 1.

10556.60 +4.08‎ (0.04%‎) Tues Mar 9 10:02am ET

truth - I follow your updates, so please keep them coming, I do appreciate them. Also, at some point, I am going to run a correlation test on this. Of course I can't run a black box algo based on your posts, but can use the landings as one tiny input. Seriously, given that the govt is at best, "guesstimating" and at worst lying about data, I can't see why your indicator is any worse than official stats. At least I know you're a "truthskr". :)

Just a personal observation on the mkts recently:
Given all the negative news and the mkt's ability to shake them off, seems the path of least resistance for now is flat to up. But with the VIX trading as low as it is, I think we're a bit extended here. We're climbing into some resistance but some key sectors seem to be shaking off the bearish mood. Time will tell. Thanks again for the updates and hope the copters don't bother your sleep!

ValB - There is no doubt in my mind that we haven't seen the end of this recession. I was walking around the city today and mostly agree with your observations. One thing particular I noticed was that during lunch hour, I saw a LOT of people who were bringing lunch to work rather than spending the avg $8- $15. I do see some signs of improvements, but we won't' know the real deal until much of the gov't intervention stops. I certainly hope that the mkts can take up the slack. If not, I'm sure helicopter Ben will just print some more paper. :(

Vintage65

Well Ive been using Mon and Tues traffic to dictate whether or not to post the rest of the week. If I don't post, it means maybe 0 to 3 copters the rest of the week. (example, yesterday was 2, maybe three and today 3)
By chance I was home early yesterday and there were 3 copters on the pad waiting for pickups around 6pm.
The more I watch, the more I notice more things.
A large copter may indicate a large company but it is generally the opposite. As some of these are chronically repeating registration numbers on the copter, I believe them to be "taxi" copters, taking a couple to several individual passengers.

And keep in mind my count is based on 8am to 9am...on occasion to 9:30am.

I do have my own business to run and for me, I tend to be the kiss of death when I buy stocks so I tread lightly, no matter what info or ideas come my way.
Though if I were a day trader, I think I would definitely rent near a pad, establish a check list of criteria, example....type of luggage, amount of people,type of people,pickups vs dropoffs,etc. I think after 4 months, this daytrader might have a handy support tool. I think someone might even develop a sixth sense on something to come.
Sometimes when you sit at that blackjack table long enough, you'll call some tens coming even if your not counting cards, because your subconscious is running a program in the background somehow.

And unfortunately, I will be out of town this mon and tues. Hope I don't miss out on reporting significant traffic.

3 copters this am, 1 looked like it might be a state of NY copter. All single passengers.

Thanks truth, hope you had a good week and thanks again for the updates.

The mkt seems to be gravitating upwards lately lowering the vix with it. We took out the previous Jan highs, and we'll see if this moves holds. Hearing from short term traders, the lack of volatility is nowhere in sight and many desks are just bored to death. The long term position traders seem to hoping that the worst is behind us. Today's PPI #'s came in very tame and suggests that inflation is still fairly low. That is if anyone believes the gov't data anymore.

Another interesting observation is that with the Fed wrapping up their MBS purchase at the end of March, the spread bet the 30 mortgage and the 30 yr bond doesn't seem to be widening much, if at all. Many bears have been calling for the spread to widen as the Fed stops buying, but we haven't seen this yet. Of course, time will tell what happens in the housing market after the new foreclosures hit the mkt as well as the new set of ARM resets hit.

One thing everyone is watching is CHINA. Lots of gloom and doom guys are calling for the next disaster to come out of China. They're calling for the bubble to burst even worse than what we've seen here. Especially in housing.

Talk of the major countries losing their AAA ratings have started to hit the tape as some of you probably have noticed. We're definitely not out of the woods yet, but this mkt just seems to want to kill the bears for now.

I was told this week by a supplier in China that their real estate was up 50%! ( I took it to mean over the last 2 years)
Considering how much less we are importing from them now (the china machine is it's manufacturing of products),and as we are by far the largest user of their goods, the only questions are.. when that bubble bursts and how much.

And reposting because of missing date and snapshot

3 copters this am, 1 looked like it might be a state of NY copter. All single passengers.
10730.80 +44.82‎ (0.42%‎) Wed Mar 17 12:21pm ET

Take a look at but one article on the Chinese RE mkt. There are many other articles on the subject with plenty of charts. Kinda scary, makes our recent bubble look like a pimple.

"China's Housing Bubble Is Inflating Faster Than Ever"

http://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-housing-bubble-is-inflating-faster-than-ever-2010-3

Well, if I recall,and don't remember the year,the government aided the Shanghai RE crash intentionally some years ago (2004ish?) to stymie the ridiculous rate of growth.
Whether it is Beijing or gravity that does it(or both)....it will happen.

In the end,whatever self criticism we have over our country, the greenback and a US zip code will always be safest.

1 copter yesterday morning and not bright and early
3 copters this am, all pickups, no dropoffs

snapshot
10715.08 -64.09‎ (-0.59%‎) Fri Mar 19 11:30am ET

1 copter this morning and 1 passenger.

10771.08 +29.10‎ (0.27%‎) Mon Mar 22 11:39am ET

0 copters this am.

10822.02 +36.13‎ (0.33%‎) Tues Mar 23 10:49am ET

Truth - a good strategy! Buy the stock market because it's going up every day (bar one) for the past 2 weeks!

See you in bankruptcy court!

??
Just keeping a log and record to see if there any correlation to the next market pop.
(Like a 400+ surge in a week.)
In fact the traffic Ive viewed, Im surprised it's even been creeping upward the way it has.

Very low volume, feels very much like a sucker's rally. Up too far too fast, almost 1,000 points in a month.

Stocks gain after every piece of negative news, and no volume? Drum roll, please....

truth - I hope we're not going through another "irrational exuberance" stage. As we all know, it's almost impossible to time markets. Some of my colleagues are saying this is going to be the calm before the storm. Others are saying the worst is behind us. Before any solid recovery can take place we still need to deal with many problems (ie: employment). But I don't "fight the tape", so for now, I'm trading lightly on the long side. Having said that, this mkt looks to be ahead of itself and either is being pumped for the dump or insiders are seeing the light at the end of the tunnel.

Some interesting observations:
Health bill gets passed - should be bad (I personally don't like it) - mkt goes up.
Greece and the other PIGS are still in trouble with no concrete plans from the EU - should be bad - mkt keeps going up.
Fed to stop buying MBS end of March - spreads should be widening but are not, should be bad - mkt keeps going up.
China starting or has started to show problems, should be bad - mkt keeps going up.
etc, etc,e tc...

Way I see it, just gotta ride out the wave and see what data we get in the coming weeks/months.
There's definitely a disconnect between the supposed horrible fundamentals and the way the mkts are behaving.

Justmy2

They're just waiting to see who pulls the trigger first.

"Truth - a good strategy! Buy the stock market because it's going up every day (bar one) for the past 2 weeks!"

Hopefully noone listened to Steve, who right before that said investing made no sense, and only day trading did!

"Very low volume, feels very much like a sucker's rally."

I think sucker rallies are named for the folks with the sour grapes, who were sitting on the sidelines, and want to call others suckers to make themselves feel better...

"Hopefully noone listened to Steve"

Yes, let's hope that people DID buy!

"who right before that said investing made no sense"

I never said that.

"and only day trading did!"

Nor did I say that.

"I think sucker rallies are named for the folks with the sour grapes, who were sitting on the sidelines"

BUY NOW OR BE PRICED OUT FOREVER!

Vintage65

Fair enough and I agree, but my helicopter experiment would include an irrational exhuberance market pop as well since helicopter traffic may indicate wheeling and dealing regardless of the reason.

Just looking for a day trade/week trade pop for all to share, bulls and bears if this data provides such a thing. And this would not be any form of inside trading, this is a public forum, and the traffic is plainly visible to anyone who wants to watch.
{I'd bet there are some pretty wealthy helicopter pilots based on their observation of their passengers;)

BTW 5 helicopters this AM.....but some detail, only 2 were single person dropoffs, the rest were pickups. And the first pickup looked like it could be a state helicopter, and it breached the 8am protocol, arriving at 7:45 am.
I've noticed only state ventures, such as 24 hr construction,etc. routinely ignore quality of life rules in our fair city.

snapshot

10865.10 -23.73%u200E (-0.22%%u200E) Wed Mar 24 10:27am ET

2 copters this am at 8am sharp.
1 picking up a single passenger and the second dropping off a group

10925.48 +89.33‎ (0.82%‎) Thur Mar 25 1:49pm ET

2 copters this awful weather morning, 1 a pickup, the other a real badass sleek black copter with two execs, was thinking Cheney was going to walk out it.

10885.88 +35.52‎ (0.33%‎) Mon Mar 29 12:43pm ET

Thanks truth - I look forward to your reports, this has become an interesting thread for me.

Employment update: The ADP employment numbers today paints an even grimmer picture of the private sector payroll data.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/marketforceslive/2010/mar/31/1

For those who don't follow the ADP data, they use a different formula to calculate payroll numbers. There's debate as to which is more accurate, the official non-farm payroll #'s or the ADP. But given the recent rampage of revisions in the official gov't data, this report will be looked at even closer.

We'll see what D.C. reports tomorrow.

V65

No copters yesterday, I'm sure the weather contributed.

5 copters this am. The last one may have been a state copter, but it was that deep blue with white trim not gold trim, so I m not sure. A team of passengers got off.

10856.56 -50.86‎ (-0.47%‎) Wed Mar 31 9:45am ET

> "Hopefully noone listened to Steve"
> Yes, let's hope that people DID buy!
> "who right before that said investing made no sense"
> I never said that.

Yes you did, just a week ago, on the other thread. How quickly you forget.

> "and only day trading did!"
> Nor did I say that.

Now you're just lying steve.

> "I think sucker rallies are named for the folks with the sour grapes, who were sitting on the sidelines"
> BUY NOW OR BE PRICED OUT FOREVER

Of course, the painful lesson Steve doesn't seem to have learned in either case is... you buy at the bottom.

This isn't irrational exuberance, this is smart money picking things up at half the value they are now... and selling them.

While Steve was losing money, some of us were picking up shares when the dow is down (a huge chunk of which I've been able to sell at 75-150% gains).

Ok Friday I was home and the morning was a bit busy for a friday, 4 copters.
But the rest of the day was like grand central station. Im never home during the day and have to wonder what traffic is like during whole day(s).
It may have been because it was a holiday, spring is starting,etc.

This AM only 2 copters though,will have to see a 2, preferably 3 day serious pop in morning traffic to declare a real run on the market.

10978.84 +51.77‎ (0.47%‎) Mon Apr 5 11:18am ET

It's a V shape recovery everywhere.

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/yes-it%27s-a-v-shaped-recovery-risk-of-double-dip-%22relatively-low%22-liz-ann-sonders-says-461290.html?tickers=^DJI,^GSPC,SPY,TLT,UUP,TBT,SCHW

From stocks to commodities.

Back in August of 09, Sonders was one of the few analyst that said we are exiting the recession. She nailed it.

Fame away bears!

Sorry, somewhereelse that you don't believe me. Of course I don't care, but I'm sorry.

I do realize that the idea is to buy at the bottom - I rode my way up 25% in a few months, then sold, then reversed positions. Right now on those positions I'm underwater, but they're not sold yet.

That's how it works, somewhereelse.

Regarding the economy, let's see: 9.7% unemployment, jobs picture skewed by census hiring, housing sales up due to government incentives.

And when they dry up?

FYI I'm a long-term bull on the stock market - just think it's overbought at this point. 10%+ up in 2 months without a correction is not somewhere that I'd be buying in, especially with light volume mostly due to mutual funds.

And, SWE, the concept underlying your post is why pattern day traders lose money, and why I would never do that, and what leads people to buying at the top and selling at the bottom: they see prices rising so they buy in, then right after they do buy in prices start to fall and they stop out.

Experienced investors don't do that: they sell when everyone else is buying, and buy when everyone else is selling. And most critically: they don't panic when a trade temporarily turns against them, as to do so would be to lock in losses.

Look at all the criticism Warren Buffett got for buying GS when that investment was losing money. He waited, and got the last laugh.

And no good investor worries about the money he didn't make. He worries about the money he didn't LOSE.

Same with housing, and why BUY NOW OR BE PRICED OUT FOREVER is so laughable. And why truthskr10 doesn't know what he's talking about. And why ericho75 should be selling, rather than buying right now.

"And why ericho75 should be selling, rather than buying right now."

Sorry, you got it all wrong Stevie.
I bought in Spring 2009 and now sitting on my position.

It's nuts out there!

http://www.finviz.com/futures.ashx

Even the most hated stepchild (natural gas) is rallying.

"I bought in Spring 2009 and now sitting on my position."

That's a fair thing to do.

As long as you're not buying, like SWElse.

Ok six copters this morning, the first two were all business and a lot of passengers. 4 were dropoffs, 2 were pickups..but...the two single passenger pickups were 5 mins apart by the same copter. (I think one passenger was 2 mins late and the copter came back for him.)
One more note.The majority of the copters this am were different (different color scheme and reg numbers) than the usual traffic Ive been watching the last 2 months.

10943.09 -30.46‎ (-0.28%‎) Tues Apr 6 10:05am ET

Perhaps the pickup in landings had something to do with the holiday week (weekend)?

Recent mkt observations:
Retail investors are very bullish now (put/call ratios, etc...),
The "recovery" argument seems to getting more followers (not necc. a good thing),
Employment still sucks (I won't be on the "recovery" bandwagon until I see better employment data),
The stock market is definitely, IMHO, ahead of itself...not much room for error at these levels.
10 yr yield now up to 4%, oil >$80 hmmm....

But what do I know...

V65

truth - thanks again for the updates, much appreciated.

vintage: but the these negatives are all well known and the market climbs the wall of worry. that is bullish. sentiment is not at extremes so we go higher

Another 6 copters this morning.
Yes the holiday(or first Spring) may be clouding this seeming uptick in traffic.
But, the market does sometimes do the opposite of what is expected (expected bullish).
However, if this traffic continues to seriously pick up during the next 3/4 business days, I'll have to assume a market pop coming.

10907.72 -62.27‎ (-0.57%‎) Wed Apr 7 10:53am ET

wannabuy - I agree the negatives I've mentioned are known and perhaps some of the sentiment indicators are not at historic highs. I certainly "don't fight the tape", but when retail investors start to get bullish like this and the mkt looks great, I always get my "correction cap" on (or at least stay on the sidelines hat on). I don't think anyone would argue that this up move has/had some legs, but I still believe that the worst isn't behind us yet. Yes, much of the global economic problems have come out and therefore "baked in", but I do not believe the market has factored in some of the major uncertainties that still exist. Time will tell.

truth - I'm beginning to wonder if the # of landings are a lagging indicator? Many of my indicators suggest a correction or consolidation at these levels. Still, I would like to see this thread continue for at least another year. I think 12 mos of data might show us something interesting to look at. Of course I'd like to see about 5-10 yrs of data, but I'd settle for 12 mos for now. ;)

V65

I like the helicopter landing data. a lot. But I'm with V65. I'd really like full days of landing data and for several months so it could be back tested against market data.

Vintage
Lagging indicator- I think it is more chicken or egg. Sometimes lagging and sometimes a precursor.

Detournement
Before starting this, I can think of 4 occassions last year when there was very high AM traffic and then a market run. Now that I put it on display and started paying attention to it, a lot of new questions came up for me if you read this entire thread. Pickups? Dropoffs? Size of luggage? Attire? Corporate copters vs the collection of single passenger "shuttles."
I'm only able to witness most of the first hour in the AM so thats what Im reporting. I think someone sitting there observing full time would absolutely get a market pulse.
And this is the east 34th st pad. Someone who had a spot close enough to the downtown pad and can recognize execs would really be huge.

This AM had 7 copters. That's high for a thursday but, the first one was just getting gas. 3 were pickups, 3 were dropoffs. This would be a perfect real test for it being a precursor to a run as the market shows no real indication for a pop and the traffic is showing a great upswing. The only thing giving me pause is the seasonality. The first real warm week.

10870.92 -26.60‎ (-0.24%‎) Thurs Apr 8 10:47am ET

PS-I'll keep posting though I can't promise 5-10 years of data. I don't think I'll be living where I am another full year. :) Also keep in mind that precrash traffic was so plentiful that it wouldn't work and should we return to those levels, this experiment is def over.

> Sorry, somewhereelse that you don't believe me. Of course I don't care, but I'm sorry.

I know you don't care... you have a pattern of lying, even when presented with your original quotes.

> That's how it works, somewhereelse.

Yes, Steve, I know you know how to lose money. Your description of what you do "works" for you in giving you a way to waste your time as you lose money.

But for those of us who like making money, 99.999% of your stock market "advice" is just LOUSY.

"Experienced investors don't do that: they sell when everyone else is buying, and buy when everyone else is selling"

Agreed 100%. Too bad you did the opposite. You told everyone you were pulling out in the panic... multiple times. I remember that well as well. And you weren't buying when everyone else was selling.

I know, because I was, and you complained...

"Look at all the criticism Warren Buffett got for buying GS when that investment was losing money. He waited, and got the last laugh."

Yes, and you could have learned a thing or two from him. Too bad you didn't.

"And no good investor worries about the money he didn't make. He worries about the money he didn't LOSE."

You lost on both counts. What's your point?

And you're also wrong... even if you're talking about Buffett... who talks about the danger of being out of the market.... like you were.

Either way, you got both wrong.

> "I bought in Spring 2009 and now sitting on my position."

> That's a fair thing to do.

> As long as you're not buying, like SWElse.

Steve, besides the lying, you have poor reading comprehension. I bought at the bottom, with dow in the 6s, 7s, and 8s. I'm just riding my success, instead of trying to day trade to get back massive losses, as you are.

Again, Steve, you've had pretty much the worst stock market advice on this board, short of maybe alpo, perfitz, and techguy.

So, enough of the preaching somewhereelse.
Let's put you on record here.

Buy, Hold or Sell?

1 copter this AM and I left early (8:30).

10970.90 +43.83‎ (0.40%‎) Fri Apr 9 10:12am ET

> Buy, Hold or Sell?

Still holding most of what I bought at 25-50% off current prices... taking some profit with the major advances, and picking up more on each retreat. Haven't bought or sold anything in 2 weeks.

> Let's put you on record here.

btw, if you don't think i've been on record, you aren't reading carefully. I noted my SSO calls multiple times on this board at dow 6,7,8.... and I noted clearly before the big runup I was 100% in equity (besides alluding to it many other times).

I put my money where my mouth is.

truth,

"Someone who had a spot close enough to the downtown pad and can recognize execs would really be huge."...
"I don't think I'll be living where I am another full year."

Hmmm...maybe you could move a bit downtown? ;) lol

5 copters this morning, 1st one not unitl 8:30.
11012.69 +15.34‎ (0.14%‎) Mon Apr 12 10:37am ET.
I'd call it fairly average for a monday.

Vintage
If I were a day trader, I'd have toconsider it. Generally I have the kiss of death when it comes to stocks.So I dable quite lightly.

11k!

Junk bonds confirming this move above 11K.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SHIAX&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

It's all good fellas.

12K Dow
S&P 1300

Deflation my ass.

http://www.finviz.com/futures_performance.ashx?v=16

Check out this 1 year bar charts of all commodities and stocks.

Oh, somewhereelse, you certainly are bitter!

Nice, though, that you have an inside peek at my portfolio and income tax returns!

> 12K Dow
> S&P 1300

Yup, great for stocks... not so good for RE.

> Oh, somewhereelse, you certainly are bitter!

I love it... Steve loses his shirt in the market, gets called out on his lies... and his only response is the insults... yeah *I'm* bitter. ROTFL.

You were just days ago whining sour grapes and calling it a "sucker rally"! Thats the clear sign of a jealous and bitter man who bet wrong.

Sorry, toots, nice try, but you're off your rocker once again.

See, making money actually makes one HAPPY. You should try it sometime. Doesn't losing get old for you?

"See, making money actually makes one HAPPY."

Makes one what HAPPY?

You don't sound very happy to me. In fact, you sound like Scrooge McDuck.

"Thats the clear sign of a jealous and bitter man who bet wrong."

Actually, no: it's a technical term for a rally in a bear market.

And no, I didn't bet wrong either. Sold my apartment in Miami for $1 million, could buy it back today for $500,000. I didn't buy real estate in New York when it was overpriced, and everything I said would come true did.

No one's made or lost any money until they sell. I'm glad that you have the prescience and foresight to predict the stock market in advance. If the market today is at 11,000, and then goes down to 10,500, will you have lost?

Only if you sell.

I think what you're saying now, though, is that IT'S A GREAT TIME TO BUY STOCKS!

Is that your call?

> You don't sound very happy to me. In fact, you sound like Scrooge McDuck.

steve, you can keep repeating yourself, but it won't make you any less wrong. Anyone who was as happy as you pretend wouldn't have to lie so much... and wouldn't be pissed at those who made money!

> "Thats the clear sign of a jealous and bitter man who bet wrong."
> Actually, no: it's a technical term for a rally in a bear market.

Its also a clear case of... sour grapes.....

It has been called by the losers in pretty much every major bull market after a bear market.

> No one's made or lost any money until they sell.

Now THIS is funny... Steve has taken on the mantra of the folks who bought in the RE bubble!
(which was of course wrong then, too)

This is pretty fing hillarious... Steve is now running with the rationalizations of the RE bulls he so despised!

> If the market today is at 11,000, and then goes down to 10,500, will you have lost?
If you bought at 11k, yes, of course. If you bought at 10k, nope, but you certainly gave back some gains.

> only if you sell.
sour grapes, and inaccurate rationalizations.... steve has all the best traits of the folks who lost money in two different markets!

> I think what you're saying now, though, is that IT'S A GREAT TIME TO BUY STOCKS!

Nah, you're a little slow when it comes to the stock market. It was a great time to buy WHEN YOU WERE SELLING, and saying "don't hold, only trading makes money in this market, bla bla" (which you then lied and claimed you never said) and some of us took another 10% gain. As I noted, I've already booked some profits there.

Steve, you just get funnier and funnier....

thanks for playing!

> In fact, you sound like Scrooge McDuck

Well, scrooge mcduck was pretty rich.... he must have also made better calls than you.

3 copter this am but I left by 8:30. 2 dropoffs, 1 pickup
10992.06 -13.91‎ (-0.13%‎) Tues Apr 13 11:23am ET

7 copters this am. 2 were pickups
11075.35 +55.93‎ (0.51%‎) Wed Apr 14 11:32am ET

6 copters this am 1 pickup, and 1 came and left(maybe a cancelation)
11124.39 +1.28‎ (0.01%‎) Thur Apr 15 10:40am ET

We may see a pickup in landings with SEC vs GS now in round 1.
GS, earnings, Iceland volcano, and Greece seem to the 3 big items for the week.
I was at Yankee Stadium this week, and it felt dead. The vendors also said business was slow.

This will be an interesting week on Wall Street.

Apologies. I overslept this morning.Considering a barage of copters didn't wake me this morning I'd call it an average monday.
Indeed, the dark cloud over Europe reveals itself. ;)

"Well, scrooge mcduck was pretty rich.... he must have also made better calls than you."

So was Hetty Green.

> I was at Yankee Stadium this week, and it felt dead. The vendors also said business was slow

Ticket sales for this year are about 10% ahead of last year at the same time (Yankees reported last week)

Don't forget early season is ALWAYS slow. Definitely more filled this opening day than last.

5 copters this am
11090.23 -1.82%u200E (-0.02%%u200E) Tues Apr 20 10:26am ET

BTW, I noticed a very distinct haze over the southwest horizon. Looked like LA smog. Is this possibly volcanic ash? Anyone else with views noticed the same thing?

1 copter at 8:55 am.

And when banks start making money on BANKING, not on trading, and without the massive infusions of liquidity from the Fed, and when unemployment falls to something normal like 5%, then I'll believe this market rally.

Until then....

SUCKER.

Truth, - Thanks again for the updates. I've been off line due to internet connection problems.

SEC vs. GS:
This is obviously must see TV, lots of potential when this onion get peeled. Could see this going either way.

Iceland volcano:
Seems like the eruption hasn't dampened the markets. I wonder if the market will change its mind if the sister volcano next to it goes off - historically have gone off together and is much bigger.

The EU and Greece:
Still playing around & nothing concrete still. Wait long enough and we might see the other "PIGS" cut in front of Greece for money.

Biggest story recently was Apple's earnings and not any of the above. Time will tell how the rest of the earnings will come in this week. Funny, but Starbucks just reported better store traffic and raised guidance. I'm starting to believe they're putting crack or something in their java. We're stuck in this recession but people are still drinking $5 lattes? On the flip side, I would have thought companies like eBay would have done better in this recession and yet, they're reporting worse numbers than expected.

V65

> Until then....
> SUCKER.

Spoken like a.... sucker. Thats the recipe for LOSING MONEY.

If you wait until the economic recovery is COMPLETE, it will be TOO LATE to buy in. You will be just one of the other suckers who buys in when things are good.

Jeez, Steve, you need to take stocks 101. seriously.

2 copters this am
11060.99 -63.93‎ (-0.57%‎) Thurs Apr 22 10:51am ET

"If you wait until the economic recovery is COMPLETE, it will be TOO LATE to buy in."

You're right SWE.

And if you buy in at the top of a bear-market rally, "Thats the recipe for LOSING MONEY."

Because at today's levels, when the recovery is COMPLETE, the Dow would have to be somewhere around 20,000.

No doubt things are better - they couldn't have gotten much worse. But the economy is still being propped up by deficit spending and the Fed flooding in liquidity. Let's look toward the future: re-regulated banks - think that's not happening? - losing their biggest money-making scams - derivatives - tax rates going up, up, up, interest rates going up, up, up.

Need I go on?

4 copters on friday
4 copters today 11242.21 +37.93‎ (0.34%‎) Mon Apr 26 11:34am ET

"Because at today's levels, when the recovery is COMPLETE, the Dow would have to be somewhere around 20,000."

Only if you don't understand the word "recovery".

But is that what you're waiting for? 20k steve?

lol

Steve's certainly got the recipe for losing money.

"Need I go on? "

Only if you want to be even more wrong that you've already been.

Your call.

"And when banks start making money on BANKING"

WFC does. I bought $50K worth under $14/share in early 2009. Should have bought more. Holding indefinitely.

"Sucker's rally, bear market rally. overbought, oversold, etc etc etc"

Technical gibberish that is IRRELEVANT to investing. The only thing that is important in investing is understanding what the company you invest in will earn over the next 2, 5, 10 and 20 years. Everything else is noise.

well put, bs... so much of technical "analysis" is coming up with excuses for mistakes already made.

5 copters this am
11187.50 -17.53‎ (-0.16%‎) Tues Apr 27 10:57am ET

sorry, forgot yesterday's tally....5 copters.
today 5 copters, 2 dropoffs
11137.01 +91.74‎ (0.83%‎) Fri Apr 29 10:34am ET

2 copters today...despite weather

11151.83 +143.22‎ (1.30%‎) Mon May 3 4:03pm ET

ouch, making money hurts.

forgot to post (loosing enthusiasm and patience with this experiment :) )

3 copters this am
10926.77 -225.06‎ (-2.02%‎) Tues May 4 4:02pm ET

"ouch, making money hurts"

It truly does, somewhere else. I'm in agony.