w67 prediction for the economy, see below

w67thstreet about 17 months ago ignore this person report abuse alrighty... petrfitz... here is my financial armageddon financial situation (not wishing for it, but taking an educated guess with my on-line persona background): One day petrfitz you will see a shadow of a homeless man in the window and do a double take and realize it's you in the mirror and you'll just be another financial version... [more]

w67thstreet about 17 months ago ignore this person report abuse alrighty... petrfitz... here is my financial armageddon financial situation (not wishing for it, but taking an educated guess with my on-line persona background): One day petrfitz you will see a shadow of a homeless man in the window and do a double take and realize it's you in the mirror and you'll just be another financial version of the walking dead in those horror flicks. And here is how we get there. DJIA and S&P goes on a false rally for the next several months with fiscal stimulus, Obama, and no bad news out, in Q3/4 09' banks start disclosing commercial/credit card bad debt.. capital ratios fall to a level where a second wave of banks are teetering on bankruptcies, Obama emergently passes TARP 2.0... GM goes under, followed soon by F and Chrysler... unemployment hits 11%, some municipalities declare bankrutcy roiling the public debt markets. Bernanke... goes back to his research paper and does everything he can to stench this with a negative interest rate policy... The chinese and middle east finally get that for their leaded toys and oil we gave them a piece of paper worth nothing. They dump dollars denominated bonds/RE and all other US assets... wrecking havoc on our currency. The RE downturn in US continues unabated and rent goes down b/c how many homes do we need? and people do the opposite of bubble... they consolidate housing (living with parents, rooming together, going back to school (dorms)), which further decreases value of RE (that's how you get "f!!!ed petrfitz." ). The US consumers feel the devaluation as a spike in gas prices and flat screen TVs, leading for an interesting time when TVs (due to contractual obligations) built in China are turned around and re-shipped to China in a "new" black market, as well as oil and other commodities (thank goodness we produce a lot of food in this country, if it was Japan.. .there would be riots and cannibalism.. they don't produce enough food to support themselves.. .hence their need to go on war rampages every 100yrs). Remember the J-Curve takes awhile and our export won't happen for several years and maybe never cause we demolished all the factories to make "HOUSING" . LMAO Oh where was I? Yes, (Geopolitcally) all of the above wrecks havoc on Russia's economy, especially oil.. they are pissed and need someone to blame.. .Putin puts himself back in power with the "we hate America" even more now mandate (they already want us dead).. and in order to take the minds off its populace from huge unemployment and as a fiscal policy increases its military (Cold War version 2.0). They take sides with the middle east against US and Israel and secretly start shipping arms to Hamas via North Korea (as the US cannot effectively deal with a nuclear armed crazy country). Now Americans are scared... TARP 2.0 hasn't worked, 600K new gov't jobs only represent 5% of those unemployed, bridges to nowhere only help 1/100 of the laid off housing construction workers... inner city youths get disenchanted as they do the right thing and go to college, but work at Starbucks and those working at Starbucks with GEDs are laid off. Gang violence increases and they come out with cheaper "crack" and this puts tremendous strain on our social services which are woefully lacking in funding. Now we have "Stagflation". Bernanke doesn't have any credibility and as a student of economics.. .I believe the first order of business is to tame inflation (the German Bundesbank has it right). If Volker is still alive, he does Volker 2.0 and raises interest rate to 15% ( yep I gotz me a car loan from the 80's with a 19% interest rate right here youngins.. .it's happened bf). This is the medicine which will finally right the ship.. .but at the expense of further drop in RE...but this is like a 5 flusher people. This is when Petrftiz declares bk and walks around asking for change... Oh BTW how's the sticks swinging today? I'm hitting my 3 iron to the "moon Alice," but then it messes up my Nike 5900 driver... WTF? Damn too cold to hit balls today... oh well... let me go find AR and play some mind games.... :) This is just my worst case scenario given what I see... maybe petrfitz opens a Subway franchise (he's started a company... yeah!) and can look down on us I-Bankers. [less]