The double dip is almost here...

I don't see a double dip coming. IMHO I think people just like to say "double dip"

you don't see it coming, because it is already here

Was posted as almost here and now changed to already here. Ready to say ir was here now? :0

So if it's here NOW, then NOW is the time to buy?

> I don't see a double dip coming. IMHO I think people just like to say "double dip"

Sounds like one of the people who didn't see the first dip coming, either.

> you don't see it coming, because it is already here

lol

Didn't claim that i predicted the first dip but then I wouldn't call it a first dip anyway :) Just happy that I bought this year with the low interest rates.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/40828545

"It's pretty clear the housing market has already double dipped," says Roubini. "And the rate of decline is stronger than in previous months," he said of the new housing data.

Gator: Oh you're crazy, there is no double-dip.
Apt_Boy: Am I? Or am I so sane that you just blew your mind?
Gator: It's impossible, real estate only goes up especially since i just bought.
AB: Only goes up? Or is it so possible your head is spinning like a top?
Gator: It can't be.
AB: Can't it? Or is your entire world just crashing down all around you?
Gator: Alright that's enough.
AB: Yeaaaaah!

Looks like you don't need me to have your crazt convo :) Enjoy, Boy!

> Didn't claim that i predicted the first dip but then I wouldn't call it a first dip anyway :)

Given you were 0 for 1 on calling the first bubble, why on earth should anyone be listening to your opnion that a second one isn't coming?

> "It's pretty clear the housing market has already double dipped," says Roubini.

whoops

Because I predicted other things with accuracy,

Hey gator, if you are such a good predictor,how much are the Gators going to lose by on Saturday?

I don't see Manhattan prices dropping. The stock market is doing good.

superman does good..... flmaoz.

I does good in school.

I be good and smart.

Me predict ny re gonna do real real good. Better than gooder it'll be I says.

WRONG, in comparison to a 0% ST debt mkt, can stk market be considered "good", but when rates go back to 5% does a goodum 5% stk mkt really gonna make you break out the good stuff? It's all downhill from here on out..... esp nyc re... $500psf...herez wez come mothrfkers!

you doing good with the smart stuff too

Take it easy, Boy.

$500 per square foot is an interesting call. Assuming this is a discussion about upper east side and upper west side, and about co-ops, what is the time frame to hit this level? And is that call the absolute bottom?

ROBERT SHILLER: If House Prices Keep Falling This Fast, The Economy Is Screwed

http://www.businessinsider.com/robert-shiller-if-house-prices-keep-falling-this-fast-the-economy-is-screwed-2010-12

GARY SHILLING: And Now House Prices Will Now Drop Another 20%

http://www.businessinsider.com/gary-shilling-and-now-house-prices-will-now-drop-another-20-2010-12

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/roubini-its-pretty-clear-housing-market-has-already-double-dipped

Hopefully today's 4th consecutive decline in home prices, as per the earlier noted Case Shiller October data (and with both mortgage rates and foreclosure inventory surging, we are willing to bet that following the reported November and December CS data, the decline will be for half a year straight), makes it sufficiently clear that housing has double dipped, and that the primary goal of Bernanke, which is not to pad banker bonuses, but to reflate home prices and recreate that mythical HELOC "fake wealth effect" piggybank, has been a complete failure (he sure is succeeding in getting WTI about to soon hit $100/barrel). Just in case there are any doubters left, Nouriel Roubini sat down with CNBC's netnet to confirm what virtually everyone else already knows: "It's pretty clear the housing market has already double dipped," per Nouriel, who recently took advantage of the NYC housing downturn and bought a $5.5MM pad. "And the rate of decline is stronger than in previous months" - precisely what we pointed out a few hours back. In other words, the double dip is accelerating. Today's jump in 10 and 30 Y rates will not help.

Attention. Attention. The new magic number is $495.67

Head/kill shots only. Flmaoz. Double dip. My peeps in the industry are telling me the 75 bps iz killing the market.

Apt_Boy, Shiller and Shilling sound like a bunch of shills to me.

bj please explain why you think they are shills

Wbottom, it's a pun. Sorry that I have to explain that.

> I don't see Manhattan prices dropping. The stock market is doing good. [sic]

I love it... when the stock market is tanking, bulls said it had nothing to do with Manhattan RE. Now it recovers some, and they're clearly tied.

Prices will be fine :)

So if it's here NOW, then NOW is the time to buy?

I mean, if you're going to buy, do it at the bottom, right?

Or is this not the bottom?

Seems to me that many on this site take w67's prediction as an outlier. Improbable. As if he is the Robert Prechter of SE. Though many believe that deflation -- Prechter's call--- is not in the cards, shouldn't you prepare for that possibility anyway considering the huge international risk in the market. An Unprecedented confluence of events that no one predicted and no one has seen before in the international markets and banking industry. Isn't it wise in times of unprecedented debt to consider the odds of hyperinflation as well as deflation. Prechter was certainly prescient about a lot of events in 2002 even if his timing was off. Could be that W67 is just a tad early also.

Even so, If you are a buyer, why wouldn't you build the possibility of $500 psf into your model/thinking. I am not calling for deflation but I certainly realize it is a possibility and part of my portfolio is poised for that possibility. If you can't find a way to live with the possibility $500 psf in your re investment --even for a few years-- perhaps you should reconsider your strategy. Those that hedged were the ones who lived through the crash and great depression in tact. I believe it is time to hedge against the possibility of a big downturn in NY RE. I made that bet and though some would say I was early, I think (considering my stock portfolio) that I got it right. So, I'm bettin with bubba.

matsonjones, no, it's not the bottom.

now
\ /\
\/

later
\ /\
\/ \
\/

Somewhereelse, I'm confused about that as well. Is the health of the stock market related to the health of the real estate market? I've read on streeteasy that they are not tied, but it seems to me that if you have more money from the stock market and indeed feel "wealthier" it would translate to better feelings about buying real estate. No???

Thanks Sunday!

I just want all the double dippers to be sure to actually CALL the bottom, so that we'll all know when to buy.

oh---i get it...da names shilling and shiller and apt 23 contain the word shill

bj--sorry you missed my obvious sarcasm, re the unfunny nature of your post, and your frequent requests that people explain the obvious to you

oh and im with bubba too--the right side of the W has yet to express itself, but it stands to be ugly

so i rent, sit on too much cash, and have owned energy and commodity index futures as a hedge--fool that i am, i cant believe in the fed-propped stock mkt

"bj--sorry you missed my obvious sarcasm, re the unfunny nature of your post"

W, I "missed" it because it was incredibly unfunny. You're proving to be nothing more than a "me too" poster, tagging along with some specimens around here. Awesome.

If you got a mortgage for $500K at .75% higher than you could have in 2010 you would be paying more than $200/mo more. Seems like that would help someone consider buying while the rates are low even if the prices could drop slightly. Thoughts?

875gator: You're probably right. But if a double dip is actually in the cards, then you're describing an effect that just prolongs the plateau between the first and second legs:
\...._____
.\.../.......\
..\/...........\
.................\

Or something along those lines.

And why do you think that prices could only drop "slightly" and not "substantially"

Thoughts? That you are one of the most self-serving posters here...how about that for a thought

geez louise....the story says that only 38% of current mortgage holders have notes that could even qualify to be refinanced.

In other words, the other 60% have more debt on their house than they could currently refinance.

This must include not only folks whose home values have slipped down lower than their mortgages, but also folks who got maybe an 80% loan originally, but now the house value has slipped enough so that the loan now reps 90% of the value, and no bank is now willing to make a 90% loan on that house.

So that's pretty ugly 60% of US homeowners are in that state. They may not be underwater but they couldn't sell for enough to pay them back their equity.

I'm not sure what more you need to convince you that this is not the time to buy. People sometimes counter with the argument that, oh, in Manhattan or (whatever submarket you like), prices haven't dipped so much, why just the other day we say sales figure of such-and-such.

But at heart this argument is really saying, other people are continuing to overpay,and therefore it's safe for me to overpay.

This is the lemmings-are-geniuses argument. Not a good approach.

When the housing market turned south, Manhattan was strong. It went down when Lehman Bros failed.

This should be an indication that the housing market in Manhattan does not follow the rest of the country.

Wall Street is having at the moment a big rally. Don't see Manhattan having any double dip, not unless another brokerage house faile. That's not likely at all. Thanks, Ben

I do see prices increasing.

So pick your poison...lower home prices and higher mortgage rates or continued low rates and stable home prices

With rates going-up, it makes no sense to buy. Just pay less in home price later, but with a higher rate.

You can always refinace and/or pay-down mortgage later, but you can NEVER change the price you originally paid for a home!!

Treasuries fell after the biggest monthly rout in a year

U.S. 10-year note yields increased six basis points, or 0.06 percentage point, to 3.35 percent at 1:10 p.m. in New York, according to BGCantor Market Data. Earlier they rose 12 basis points to 3.42 percent. The price of the 2.625 percent security due in November 2020 fell 15/32, or $4.69 per $1,000 face amount, to 93 30/32. Thirty-year bond yields rose as much as 11 basis points, the most on an intraday basis since Dec. 28, to 4.44 percent before trading at 4.38 percent.

Faile = Fail

streetsmart: This should be an indication that the housing market in Manhattan does not follow the rest of the country.

That is ridiculous. Do you really think that Manhattan is immune to bubble corrections? Over 300% up and only 20% down is not a correction. Bubbles revert to the mean unless history is changing. Or unless you think the NY/American economy is so tremendously strong in spite of trillions in debt and a Fed that is so desperate to keep banks and faith in treasuries afloat they will throw anything they can at the problem. How much more ammo do you think they have? Of course there is the almighty dollar which is backed by.....oh, I guess not much more than a promise, a dream and soul crushing debt.

You shouldn't be worried about brokerage houses, you should be worried about China making more deals with Russia to bypass the dollar and whether Spain will fail. You should be worried that when the Fed runs out of ideas, they are going to protect their own ass which means the little guys--the homeowners, the bank depositors and the stock holders will get screwed. And if you believe that the govt wouldn't screw their citizens -- tell that to the rescue workers who cleaned up 9/11 without masks because the govt said the air quality was just fine.

I am playing the stock market rally as everyone else is because that is the way the wind is blowing for now. But if a pissant like me is planning to exit in the next month or so, you can bet some of the big bettors are ready to take profits and steer clear of some major headwinds coming down the treacherous international pike. Don't count on the stock market to bail out NY RE for much longer.

Boy, thanks for your thought. Truly enlightening. Might want to stick to cutting and pasting articles you read online.

my thought: your thoughts are empty waste

i have a few pieces by faile--

apt23: I'm not worried. And when the Fed runs out of ideas, I doubt if they or anyone else will protect the little guys; they haven't so far.But that has nothing to do with anything.

The Manhattan real estate market is back and you may be priced out of the market.

I'm a real estate broker and I've gotten many inquiries these past few weeks.

oh no---we have a real, live "buy now or be priced out" moron

get out there and turn them keys!!

Manhattan is clearly not immune from what goes on across the country, but it is important to recognize the similarities and differences. For now Manhattan is stronger than other markets. Manhttan is not fungible with Bayonne or Wayne NJ. REO inventory is lower than the natioanl, job picture is better too. This could all change tomorrow, but for now we're holding up.

You can't look at national trends and assume a direct correlation to Manhattan. Shiller's 20 city index includes Las Vegas, South Florida, Phoenix and Tampa, which drag that index way down. That's not to say Manhattan is immune to trends (prices are clearly down from the high), but Riversider made good points about low inventory and job picture. Also, Manhattan is unique in the large number of co-ops, which scrutinize people's financials before they can purchase, which means most owners did not over leverage and so can afford to ride out the storm. Lastly, there is an enormous demand for Manhattan properties from all over the world by international buyers. The Euro, despite being pummeled, is still at 1.33, which means Manhattan properties still look 25% cheaper to these buyers. Same story with the Sterling at 1.55.

I am playing the stock market rally as everyone else is because that is the way the wind is blowing for now. But if a pissant like me is planning to exit in the next month or so, you can bet some of the big bettors are ready to take profits and steer clear of some major headwinds coming down the treacherous international pike. Don't count on the stock market to bail out NY RE for much longer.

So you think this is a pyramid scheme and you'll get out in time. maybe yes, maybe no. You need to watch a few Mamet films; "House of Games"

------------
And has far as Manhattan real estate, nobody should be buying on the assumption of flipping to another in a few years. Buy what you can afford, what makes sense versus rent(adjusted for amenities, etc) and don't treat your home as an investment. There are two things you don't do business with, your wife and your home.

"Bubbles revert to the mean unless history is changing. "

Bubbles revert to the mean? Why didn't we just stay at the mean to begin with?

History doesn't change, but when is the future the same as the past?

"The Euro, despite being pummeled, is still at 1.33, which means Manhattan properties still look 25% cheaper to these buyers. Same story with the Sterling at 1.55."

DAKNY, can you clarify what you mean by that?

Looks like Q4 media prices went up in Manhattan. Is that the dip we are talking about??

I wish people didn't play dumb. It's disrespectful and trollish.
"Bubbles revert to the mean? Why didn't we just stay at the mean to begin with?"
there are excellent books out there about bubbles and the herd mentality; if you have never heard about market bubbles and crashes, why are you posting in this thread?
"Looks like Q4 media prices went up in Manhattan. Is that the dip we are talking about??"
You know perfectly well, if you read the article, that the reason the median is up is because the mix is different: less 1BR, more 2BR.

What are you talking about, per Elliman (and a grain of salt)...

3rd qtr 2010 Avg: $1,487,472
4th qtr 2010 Avg: $1,482,650
DOWN 0.3%

3rd qtr 2010 Median: $914,000
4th qtr 2010 Median: $845,000
DOWN 7.5%

If that is not the beginning of a double dip, than I don't know what is

875gator: Just to be clear, the overall median is up 4.3% year-on-year, down 7.5% quarter-on-quarter. So, to the extent medians are meaningful, the answer to your question is "Yes." As Apt_Boy says, that's exactly how one would expect the start of a second downward leg to show up in the median stats.

Personally, I don't think medians are very useful; but your taunting seems completely misplaced.

http://www.urbandigs.com/2011/01/q4_in_real_time_trends_confirm.html

When looking at medians, I can argue: it is affected big time by the timing and make up of closings from month to month. People love to see a median market swing and assume the market just moved up 8% or down 8% magically, when it can boil down to the fact that more 3BRs closed 4-5 months ago compared to the last 3 months...people take these market wide reports and continue the thinking to a specific individual property.

Its meaningless to value a specific unit in a specific building based on a recent trend shown in a median market report. Not only are you exposed to the flaws I discussed above but you are introducing so many non-comparable variables into the equation that likely presents a mis-intepretation of the current marketplace. For example, I do NOT think prices fell 7.5% (as the Elliman report states) from Q3 to Q4 - and to have a buyer start a property valuation with the assumption that prices fell 7.5% in the last 3 months relative to the 3 months prior would be totally incorrect! The late summer and early fall saw a big dropoff in new deals signed for $2m properties, causing a wave down in both volume and median price trends from the period prior - not because a new adjustment down in bids took place across price points.

A property valuation should be done using in building comparable sales, preferably same line or same unit sales, followed by a few adjustments:

1) Time Adjustment - adjust for market conditions
2) Floor Adjustment - adjust using a floor multiplier
3) Renovation Adjustment - adjust for renovation upgrades
4) Size Adjustment - hopefully the comparable has the same footprint/size
5) Special Features Adjustment - adjust for unique features (i.e. terrace, fireplace)

Limit the variables and conduct a solid comps analysis of the target building! Every building is its own local market and once you go outside of that building you are introducing new variables that will degrade your analysis.

BEGIN hate messages now.

Thanks Noah! it completely makes sense, you should be pilloried for that.

UD, as long as you dont say anything bullish, ill be nice

that said, it's only a coupla days, but real-time contracts signed for 2011 seem sorta strong

'Digs: I completely agree. To some extent, I think the industry is reaping what they sowed. The big firms have invented a lot of authoritative-looking statistics to quantify the wonderful returns available from investments in real estate. The stats were misused on the way up, and they are likely to be misused on the way down.

At the moment, most market segments seem directionless. The interpretation (or spin) from the brokerage CEOs is that "flat" equals "stable" and "normal", so buyers and sellers should stop waiting for dramatic moves, and get on with the business of buying and selling apartments. We'll see whether events bear out the "flat=stable" story. To some extent, the story can be self-fulfilling: convince enough buyers and sellers that prices are stable, and prices will indeed be stable.

The streeteasy condo index was just updated for November: as flat as flat can be m-o-m, up 4.3% y-o-y.

Digsy,
any shot you can provide a contracts signed chart with a strait time sequence, in addition to the existing which overlays months?

I just don't see that the sky is falling.

> For example, I do NOT think prices fell 7.5% (as the Elliman report states) from Q3 to Q4 -

Noah, totally agreed. This is what I've been saying for months, with my thread on the by size medians. The makeup of the sales had the bigger impact. To me, this is just the "correction" of the median only being down 10% when the components were down more (meaning 10% was never really accurate).

I don't think the market just went down 7.5%, I think it was already there, just not apparent.

I think the more important number to look at is... we're down 17.6% from peak.

The sky is not falling and not here, but 5000 birds falling from the sky is still a bit disturbing especially considering 100,000 fish were also found dead relatively near by.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/US/01/03/arkansas.falling.birds/index.html?hpt=T2

"strait time sequence" - do you mean a line chart on top of the bar chart?

WBottom - yea, the last 2 weeks in DEC, especially the last 5-6 days saw very little action, so the strong tail end from end of NOV left the real time stats table and was replaced in front end with the minimal data. So it will take 4 weeks to get the low data out of the 30-day column.

flat = stable = buy now
up = market on fire = buy now
down = market has value = buy now

We can always spin it to buy now and get away with it.

"Sunday
31 minutes ago The sky is not falling and not here, but 5000 birds falling from the sky is still a bit disturbing especially considering 100,000 fish were also found dead relatively near by.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/US/01/03/arkansas.falling.birds/index.html?hpt=T2"

Either we are testing a satelite based ray gun or there were some serious lightning strikes.
I think the fish will tell more of the story than the birds.

blunt force trauma to the birds. cue the UFO hordes.

yes, one line chart which spans your data from beginning to end

> We can always spin it to buy now and get away with it.

Ha. And absolutely true, demonstrated clearly on this board.

"Flat = stable = buy now" is smart spin. It's directed at buyers who don't need prices to fall any farther, because they can already afford what they want. They just don't want to catch a falling knife that has bounced briefly on the way down.

"Buy now or be priced out forever" is dead (at least for now). Long live "Buy now and you won't get hurt."

West81st, how many sellers are recent or expectant buyers of something else? How many have given up on RE and are renters?

Huntersburg: Sorry, I don't understand the question. Did you mean it to be rhetorical?

No, not rhetorical, I was hoping to get your perspective.

And yet the stock market keeps racing ahead pumped by investor enthusiasm over the fantastic earnings and growth prospects for the u.s. economy.

Let's put this in perspective.

Don't lose sight of the fact that "racing ahead" just got us to only just under 20% down from peak of several years ago. 20% is crash territory.

This isn't "the market thinks things are good". This is the market just things we're only in the regular crash crap zone as opposed to worst crash in generations crap zone.

That (and the Shiller trailing PE analysis) was the basis of most of my buying SSOs a couple years back. Things didn't need to get "good", they just needed to be a little less "end of the world" and thats what we got.

Double dip is here and It's official!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42904204
I remember Homeowners in 2005 saying they were getting richer without doing anything.
Well! For the last 5 years, my downpayment money has slowly but surely gotten bigger nominally as a % of a cost to buy a house.
5 years ago, my $100K downpayment only got me 10% of the cost of a House. Today, these $100K is getting me over 15% of the cost of the same house. Life is beautiful!

Soooo, sideline buyers, if i catch you buying a property that is being flipped from a seller who bought it last in 2009, you are officially a moron!

if you're paying more than he did, of course! :-)

Hammo - you're spot on. You're downpayment buys more in 2011 than it would've in 2007, and it will buy more in 2012 than it does now. When will it bottom? Some now say 2014. That would be six yrs of declines for NYC (8 for most other cities). Not possible, you say? Tokyo continued to decline for 15 yrs or so.

i'm still waiting for the single dip...

"i'm still waiting for the single dip..."

i LOL'ed...move to phoenix??

so does that mean that i shouldnt buy now? its funny cuz in brooklyn where im looking it seems that the dev.s r raising there prices which i just dont understand. 2 months ago a few units sold for 10% under asking (closing dates in april) so i put in an offer of 0% under & the dev wouldnt respond stating that the market is on fire & in fact they r raising prices again in a few weeks...they were raised by 15k 4 weeks ago. so a part of me wants to offer close to asking since it seems like a good deal even at that price, but another part of me wants to wait & watch if it just sits on market for a while which would give me more negotiating room i would think. im totally confused....dont want to over pay for something that is only going to depreciate every year until i lose everything...

not sure about brooklyn but I can tell you that in almost every neighborhood in downtown manhattan inventory levels are the lowest in almost five years...prices are on the rise. and that trend will spread to other areas of new york and outside new york. prices will continue to go up until developers start add to supply and/or mortgage rates go up (A LOT).

thanks, i guess once i crunch the numbers & add in the pride of ownership thing its about the same as to rent at the prices now. im looking in fort greene & there are only about 4 2 beds on the market in condo buildings...most r coops. which r truly hideous!!!

We must be watching different submarkets downtown because most of the stuff I have seen come on the market in the past few months has sat or been chopped down and not coincidentally there is more now than there has been for the past year. Out of places I have seen downtown, several have sat, several went into and fell out of contract and are now either back on the market or unavailable and i believe one has been in contract for over three months.

Does anyone actually have any examples of prices rising downtown?

Helphome & goal73 = Re Borker in disguise
You guys are pathetic!

Malthus - when you say "downtown" are you talking about Chelsea/EV/LES/Gramercy or do you mean Battery Park/Tribeca?

I can tell you for a fact that prices in my EV coop have definitely risen. Back in 2007, I saw one bedrooms going right around the 700Kish mark. Cut to 2009 and those same apartments - and there were only a few people that actually dared list - went for 620-630Kish. But then late last year and so far this year, there are apartments going darn close to 700K.

Separately, I know next to nothing about the West Village, but most of what I read on here seems to indicate that prices are pretty strong there because inventory is so scarce and its such a desirable area. Again though, thats just anecdotal.

helphome, don't fall prey to developer shenanigans. They play that card all the time, and are (unfortunately) often successful. The market's doing ok, but saying it's "on fire" is ridiculous. Be patient, don't focus so much on the asking price, and really do the math on what you can comfortably afford. It can be tempting to get sucked in and just go for it, but it's usually not the best decision. Good luck!

techno: Submarkets clearly matter. Most of what i have seen is Tribeca/Financial/Seaport areas where there was no inventory several months ago and quite a bit now. But also some in SE Chelsea. Don't know the EV and I don't see much come up in the WV in the range/price I am looking for.

Today's WSJ: "MAY 9, 2011.Home Market Takes a Tumble
Turnaround More Distant After 3% Drop, Steepest Quarterly Decline Since 2008."

Seems tax credits had a bigger effect that previously thought: "While most economists expected sales to decline after tax credits expired, the drag on the market has been greater than many anticipated."

Even if markets where they shouldn't have mattered: "According to the Zillow index, a handful of California markets and Washington, D.C., saw price appreciation last year, but that has since reversed. Mr. Humphries attributes the "double dip" in those markets, which include Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Diego, to the way in which the tax credit stimulated demand from buyers. When the tax credit went away, markets were left with rising supply from foreclosures but with less demand from buyers."

Also mention of loans being cancelled during the mortgage process as lenders change policies along the way.

I want to believe in the double dip but, recently, all my saves on streeteasy have come back as "in contract". So something is selling.

Newbie - lots of transactions do NOT mean a hot market. They often mean that sellers are finally capitulating on price. The relevant Q is, not whether your bookmarked properties have gone into contract, but at WHAT PRICE?

Clearly housing nationwide has not recovered. And clearly housing in manhattan has come back, at least temporarily, though the extent of the comeback is different across neighborhoods and price points, This should not be surprising. Two types of people dominate manhattan real estate: financial professionals and people with significant unearned income. Well, finance has not been reformed or chastened, and corporate profits are soaring. Meanwhile, incomes and employment numbers--the things that will allow ordinary people to buy houses--have l lagged. So it should not be surprising that the manhattan really estate market has diverged.

Likewise, capacity has been ridiculously constrained in manhattan for decades with our ridiculously over broad landmark protections and even worsen system of air rights and zoning. When prices drop in manhattan a lot of people want to move in.

And San Fran is the exact opposite?

This is starting to play like a broken record. Housing dipped across the US in 2006-07 while New York held on and everyone said it can't happen here because NYC is so unique. And then it did happen here.

I'm with helphome on this one - Brooklyn is very active. I brought buyer clients to this open house on Sunday the 1st, and by Thursday there were 15 offers in and an inspection in progress: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/603248-multi-577-6th-avenue-park-slope-brooklyn
One bedrooms and studios are still slow, but "family-sized" apartments and houses, when priced right, are as close to "on fire" as I have seen since 2006. Some neighborhoods, like the South Slope/Greenwood, are hotter than they have ever been. In part that's because they were not particularly hot pre-bubble, but the gentrification of these areas has continued unabated regardless of the state of the overall economy.
Tina Fallon
Realty Collective, LLC

"How All-Cash Buyers Are Preventing The Collapse Of The Housing Market"

"Inside Mortgage Finance, which surveys roughly 3,000 brokers each month and issues a monthly report, revealed at the end of March that a record 33.7% of property purchases nationwide were all-cash."

"The National Association of Realtors (NAR) conducts an Investment and Vacation Home Buyers Survey annually. The latest survey covering 2010 found that a record 59% of investors paid all-cash for their property. That figure was only 32% in 2006 and a mere 17% in 2004 according to previous NAR surveys."

http://www.businessinsider.com/how-all-cash-are-buyers-preventing-the-collapse-of-the-housing-market-2011-5

Fifty nine percent. Staggering.

Villageowner/Tina. Go have sex and make more re borkers..... What else can you say? Buy buy buy.

Like a car salesman.... Great day to buy a car.