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One Manhattan Square

Started by realestate19
over 8 years ago
Posts: 114
Member since: Jan 2011
The neighborhood is clearly the biggest issue here...in your opinion, can it change (to the point of becoming livable for the residents of this building)? Will it? If you had the money, would you ever live in the building?
Response by 300_mercer
over 8 years ago
Posts: 10539
Member since: Feb 2007

Depends on the price. It is not livable at the current prices. I would say say below $1500 per sq ft for floors with view, worth a consideration. Believe prices are much higher. Waterfront may push upwards from South Street Seaport.

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Response by knewbie
over 8 years ago
Posts: 163
Member since: Sep 2013

There are a good deal of housing projects around that area. Your going to have to walk thru those areas in some way or another . Having said that, it s not bad and quite pleasant during the day. Late night, you just have to be careful.
The nearest subway stop , East Broadway , is smelly, dark and a mess. I would have suggested One Manhattan developers spend a a piece of change and spruce it up. The bus nearby lines are fine.
I actually like the neighborhood and spent a number of years living there. Besides the housing projects, you also have a good deal of co-ops as you go west. All in all, its really a decent hood. I think for that price, you really have to like the neighborhood before you buy in. Its also a trek to the nearest large supermarket. Plenty of smaller stores
though for groceries. You cant beat Chinatown for fresh fish/vegetables. Much of it depends on your expectations.
All in all, I do not think it will change much in the near future, but part of the charm of that neighborhood is what it is now.

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Response by 300_mercer
over 8 years ago
Posts: 10539
Member since: Feb 2007

knewbie, Curious what you think is the right price to attract people to this development?

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 8 years ago
Posts: 9876
Member since: Mar 2009

There is no way to get there on foot/public transportation without walking through several blocks of public housing (which isn't going away any time soon).

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Response by knewbie
over 8 years ago
Posts: 163
Member since: Sep 2013

I think you have to look at the comparables down on the LES. Most of the high end i.e 287 Houton,150 Rivington,196 Orchard are ak 2k+ per sq foot. They are more inland and dont have that deserted feeling of being out of touch next to the river. But One Manhatten looks like it offers more in terms of amenities i.e indoor pool. And you will get a better view being 20-30 stories up vs these low risers. The other comparables are the large supply of co-ops @ abou1k per sq foot. I think One manhatten is pricing below its peer group and offers more. No doubt the developer bot this piece of land at a relatively low price so his pricing I think is competative. My guess is that if he really want to sell, he would drop prices to $1600-1800 a sq foot. Thats my price point for being interested. If I can get a low floor like 9 @ $1600 vs current price of $1700, I would be in. Overall, 5-less then 10% and I think you get many more buyers. You have to like luxury though, otherwise , life is still pretty good at 1k or less at the multitude of co-ops i,e Chatam Square,Seward Park

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Response by 300_mercer
over 8 years ago
Posts: 10539
Member since: Feb 2007

Good insight knewbie. Chatam Square coop is indeed a good data point for comparison. The other LES new developments you mention are in a significantly more desirable/hip area with better transportation.

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 8 years ago
Posts: 9876
Member since: Mar 2009

The problem is that none of those (287 Houton,150 Rivington,196 Orchard, Chatam Square,Seward Park ) are really in the same location, and in none of those are you forced to walk through several block of actual "projects" to get to.

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Response by lemayday
over 8 years ago
Posts: 13
Member since: Jul 2016

This is certainly an interesting project. The building is already having a serious impact on the downtown skyline. I think Two Bridges has a lot of potential, but this building is still way too far away from everything.

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Response by sf212
over 8 years ago
Posts: 24
Member since: Sep 2016

Great marketing by these guys, they're aggressive and see them everywhere. Had a broker friend randomly receive a bag of goodies from them.

However, think the neighborhood will be tough. It's still quite sketch, lots of projects...

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Response by hoodia
over 8 years ago
Posts: 154
Member since: Jun 2009

For foreigners. Even the name suggests it. Manhattan Square?!

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Response by uptownben
over 8 years ago
Posts: 29
Member since: Jul 2016

@hoodia - good point, now it makes sense why they used that name =P

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 8 years ago
Posts: 9876
Member since: Mar 2009

I noticed this ad on Curbed today:

"Endless Views, Countless Amenities, Attainable Prices
Epic river and skyline views with over 100,000 sq ft of amenities.
1-3 Bedroom Waterfront Condominium Residences from $1.16M.
20 yr tax abatement anticipated | 252 South Street, New York, NY 10002"

Are things going so poorly for Extell that they aren't using the "1 Manhattan Square" address and are placing ads under the old street address?

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 8 years ago
Posts: 9876
Member since: Mar 2009

They announced back in March that the first 100 units had entered contracts (https://ny.curbed.com/2017/3/2/14792358/extell-lower-east-side-condo-sales-milestone), but I haven't seen anything since about the second hundred units. There was a story in November, 2016 that the first 80 had been sold (https://ny.curbed.com/2016/11/18/13680634/one-manhattan-square-construction-update-nyc) which would seem to indicate that they had only sold 20 in the 4 months from November, 2016 to March, 2017. Anyone hear anything about how many are sold at this point in time? Because with 815 units total it seems like it's going to take the better part of a decade to sell out.

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Response by fieldschester
over 8 years ago
Posts: 3525
Member since: Jul 2013

And is anything selling at 70 Charlton?

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Response by 300_mercer
over 8 years ago
Posts: 10539
Member since: Feb 2007

30, I think they will need to take 15-25 percent hair cut and sponsor a shuttle bus etc.

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Response by tonyhoward255
over 8 years ago
Posts: 35
Member since: Apr 2016

It's certainly having an impact on the skyline as it gets taller. The first of many to come over there! My preference would still be core LES or Two Bridges, especially at those astounding PPSFs!

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Response by knewbie
over 8 years ago
Posts: 163
Member since: Sep 2013

East Broadway station is one of the worst, dark, smelly. Granted thats the stop for evryone else too. but if your buying at 1 Manhatten prices, you might be expecting a bit more.

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Response by realestate19
over 8 years ago
Posts: 114
Member since: Jan 2011

I walked around the neighborhood a few weeks ago in the afternoon. I (as an unaccompanied young woman) didn't feel particularly unsafe, but I didn't feel at ease either. If you stick to the streets without projects there are enough people outside during the day, but I didn't walk to the subway station, and from what I understand you have to walk through the projects to get to it. The area next to the river (right across from the building) is full of homeless people as it is under an overpass. I wouldn't want to be in the area at night, and I definitely wouldn't want my kids to be there.

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Response by nyc_sport
over 8 years ago
Posts: 809
Member since: Jan 2009

The separate, rather hideous brown brick affordable housing building going up adjacent to this glass box is mysteriously missing from all of the renderings, but hard to miss when driving down the FDR or walking in front of this place. There is not remotely a sufficient discount in the pricing for the location. They need more than a shuttle bus. On the other hand, Uber/Lyft etc. and grocery/meal deliveries may make out of the way locations less relevant for a certain segment/generation of the population.

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Response by falcogold1
over 8 years ago
Posts: 4159
Member since: Sep 2008

Building is going to be a great bell-weather for the lux market. 815 lilliputian units with generally good views on the edge of town. This is a sea of similar units all coming to the market in 2018. My prediction is that there will be a flood of similar units in similar building all with one thing in common, weird location. This could include LIC, Jersey City, Fort Lee, and midtown west. If the economy falters these spaces will be doomed. Spectacular deals could await the prudent patient investor.

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Response by fieldschester
over 8 years ago
Posts: 3525
Member since: Jul 2013

Why is a view of Brooklyn a "generally good view"? And what if you have a view not facing the river?
This is not a good location.

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 8 years ago
Posts: 9876
Member since: Mar 2009

Almost all of the LIC units coming on the market are rental buildings.

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Response by 300_mercer
over 7 years ago
Posts: 10539
Member since: Feb 2007

30, Did they sell much more? I am still waiting for the price cuts of 20 percent plus for higher floors. I guess they still have one year before they need to sell.

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Response by ximon
over 7 years ago
Posts: 1196
Member since: Aug 2012

Can't really understand why Extell would build this here. Were they thinking mainly Chinese buyers as its close to Chinatown? Foreigners like new construction, nice views and good amenities but can't sell out an entire building that way, can they? Maybe they bought the land cheap? Not an easy commute to anywhere really. Very optimistic assumptions and even got an increase in financing in Oct.

https://therealdeal.com/2017/10/09/extell-increases-one-manhattan-square-loan-to-750m/

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Response by 300_mercer
over 7 years ago
Posts: 10539
Member since: Feb 2007

Guessing the mark up is huge - perhaps 50 percent or more. Since loans are typically a percentage of the cost, I am not surprised that they can get loans. If the average cost is $1200-1500 per sq for including soft costs (the land was cheap), they will still break even and Extel makes the development fees. Equity holders may get very low return.

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Response by ximon
over 7 years ago
Posts: 1196
Member since: Aug 2012

300, that makes sense, at least from the perspective of the first mortgage lender. As you said, assuming a high mark-up (probably true), Extell might be able to lower prices 30-40% and still pay first mortgage. Have to believe market is strong enough to achieve reasonable sellout at those discounts but let's see. Hate to be a mezz lender though. Mezz is probably badly mispriced and more like equity now. If mezz lender(s) gets control down the road, there could be a massive selloff at even lower prices.

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 7 years ago
Posts: 9876
Member since: Mar 2009

My guess is that Extell thought that the Chinese market would eat these up since the prices are much, much lower than a lot of the luxury product which has been built in Midtown. However, in the six months that the units were exclusively marketed two Asian investors before the New York sales office was opened it appears they only were able to ink 80 contracts. The last announcement I saw of meeting a sales goal was when they hit 100 units almost exactly a year ago.

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 7 years ago
Posts: 9876
Member since: Mar 2009

Extell bought the property and bought out Pathmark's leasehold for about $150 million which comes to about $187k in land costs per unit so I'm guessing they are all-inclusive on the 1 brs for around $700k, the 2 brs for around $1 million. That should give them plenty of room.

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 7 years ago
Posts: 9876
Member since: Mar 2009

Of course that doesn't include the numbers for the "fully affordable" 227 Cherry St building next door. I have no idea how they are running the accounting for that.

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Response by ximon
over 7 years ago
Posts: 1196
Member since: Aug 2012

That's a pretty low basis. SE says 119 in contract sales and 110 previous sales but do they have a temporary C of O to allow closings? 229 out of 815 still a long way to go. Wonder if the larger units are still to come? That would not be good.

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Response by 300_mercer
over 7 years ago
Posts: 10539
Member since: Feb 2007

30, Thank you for the land cost info. Assuming 1200 sq ft per unit, it is less than $200 per sq ft. However, the highrise construction costs are definitely over $1000 per square ft including soft cost. That is why I think it is somewhere between 12-1500 per sq ft including all costs except equity. So 650 sq for 1 bedroom probably 10-20 perfect higher than your estimate at 850k.

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 7 years ago
Posts: 9876
Member since: Mar 2009

There is a "Skyscrape Collection" of 25 units at the top of the building which seems to be unreleased at this point.
https://www.6sqft.com/extell-reveals-deluxe-upper-floor-skyscape-collection-at-one-manhattan-square/

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Response by ximon
over 7 years ago
Posts: 1196
Member since: Aug 2012

Interesting 30. These luxury units are typically the most profitable to the developer and are often held back to be offered at the most opportune time. Wonder if that time has now passed. Wonder if they might be offered as a bulk sale like One 57 or converted to rental.

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 7 years ago
Posts: 9876
Member since: Mar 2009

I would have thought that "most opportune time" would have been January after bonuses came out. I wonder what event they are waiting for?

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Response by 300_mercer
over 7 years ago
Posts: 10539
Member since: Feb 2007

My guess is that they want to wait rather than take a price cut as Extel is making development fees and loans are far from due yet. Why tell the equity holders the truth? They may not want to know either as they were not expecting the money for another year or two. Also, existing contract signers may walk away unless the price reduction is smaller than their down payment. By the time, equity holders pressure Extel to sell, it will be another year at least. In the meantime, Extel probably would have made more progress in selling some of their other projects - so they hope.

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 7 years ago
Posts: 9876
Member since: Mar 2009

I'm not talking about price cuts. I'm wondering why they wouldn't put their best product on the market at the time when people had the most money.

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Response by ximon
over 7 years ago
Posts: 1196
Member since: Aug 2012

300, I think you are correct. Opportune time is whenever prices can be maximized so although January makes sense for Wall Street bonuses, super luxury prices are down 20%. If this is a result of too much supply, then logic dictates waiting as long as they can until supply/demand is more in balance.

Extell's next move may tell us a lot about what they really think of the current market.

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Response by 300_mercer
over 7 years ago
Posts: 10539
Member since: Feb 2007

30, Perhaps they realize that the product is overpriced and they want to delay the day of reckoning till the time construction is closer to completion.

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Response by ximon
over 7 years ago
Posts: 1196
Member since: Aug 2012

I am guessing Extell has taken reservations on a bunch of these upper floor units. They are a known commodity to the Chinese and have raised lots of money through EB-5.

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 7 years ago
Posts: 9876
Member since: Mar 2009

I saw that they had "sold" one of the penthouses for $13 million even though they don't appear to be listed anywhere.
https://ny.curbed.com/2016/12/13/13939954/extell-one-manhattan-square-penthouse-sold

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 7 years ago
Posts: 9876
Member since: Mar 2009
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Response by 300_mercer
over 7 years ago
Posts: 10539
Member since: Feb 2007

Who knows whether they are telling the truth about penthouse being in contract for appx $13mm. It is not out of question for 3700 sq ft plus 400 sq ft terrace. I am watching for price cuts towards year-end once the construction is nearing completion.

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Response by fab334
about 7 years ago
Posts: 4
Member since: Oct 2009

The PH you're referring to is signed and fully executed. A record for the neighborhood.

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Response by knewbie
about 7 years ago
Posts: 163
Member since: Sep 2013

When $'s dont really matter too much , one tends to overspend. This hood will not be changing much. OM is bordered on two sides by lower income housing . The other two sides are a NYC sanitation salt pile and the river. Really annoying how that corner of Pike street has become a choke point for traffic.

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
about 7 years ago
Posts: 9876
Member since: Mar 2009

fab334,
How many of the units have fully executed contracts? Where can we see what's available in the "Skyscape Collection"? A year ago we heard "Occupancy is about a year away at One Manhattan Square" - what is the current schedule?

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
about 7 years ago
Posts: 9876
Member since: Mar 2009

Look up!
Is it a turd?
Is it a bane?
No, it's a Supertall in an inappropriate location!

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
about 7 years ago
Posts: 9876
Member since: Mar 2009
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Response by 300_mercer
about 7 years ago
Posts: 10539
Member since: Feb 2007

I wonder what Extel’s strategy is here. They are too smart not to know that this building needs a big price cut rather than only 5y free maintenance (perhaps 3-4 percent worth in price terms) they are advertising or a combination of price cut and free maintenance.

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
about 7 years ago
Posts: 9876
Member since: Mar 2009

They are starting to release lower priced units to make it a draw rather than reducing prices (like this one https://streeteasy.com/building/one-manhattan-square/11f?context%5Bcontroller%5D=%23%3CBuildingController%3A0x000055695d6a1460%3E&context%5Bcurrent_user%5D=1040784&hide_if_empty=true&section=sales ).
The Common Charges rebate is only 5 years on the 3 BR units. On the 1 & 2 BRs it's 3 years which I think comes to a bit over 2%.
Where have they been advertising this?

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Response by 300_mercer
about 7 years ago
Posts: 10539
Member since: Feb 2007

I got a pop-up ad which must be for a 3 bed room. I see that they have signed one contract in the last one month.

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
about 7 years ago
Posts: 9876
Member since: Mar 2009

With 800 units they really need to be inking 10 to 20 deals a month

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Response by 300_mercer
about 7 years ago
Posts: 10539
Member since: Feb 2007

At this stage realistically a lot more as buyer can have their pick of the unit. Guessing the new units they are releasing may have a discount built into them.

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
about 7 years ago
Posts: 9876
Member since: Mar 2009

It doesn't look like that to me:
11G was 723SF ask $1,179,000 = $1,630/SF
11F is 695SF ask $1,209,000 = $1,739/SF

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Response by stache
almost 7 years ago
Posts: 1292
Member since: Jun 2017

Hilarious that they have an Anglo Saxon family in the rendering.

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
almost 7 years ago
Posts: 9876
Member since: Mar 2009
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Response by 300_mercer
almost 7 years ago
Posts: 10539
Member since: Feb 2007

I think subway safety is solvable by posting a permanent policeman but getting to the subway is a more difficult one. Guessing Uber and Lyft to the rescue. Or perhaps a free shuttle during rush hour. This is what some buildings on 62nd and Westend did 20 years back.

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Response by knewbie
almost 7 years ago
Posts: 163
Member since: Sep 2013

I do not think it is a particularly bad walk to the East Broadway station especially in the daytime. But the EB station is a notably foul smelling dank, dungeon like station 24/7/365 and especially smelly during summer months. If you lived in the projects surrounding the area, you know many of the staircases are used as alternate bathrooms. The EB station is basically a backup bathroom. Lots of corners and a winding design. Perfect for vagrant privacy. OM should have spent a few hundred thou renovating that stop as that is the closest. Would have also scored some points with the hood doing that.

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Response by ximon
almost 7 years ago
Posts: 1196
Member since: Aug 2012

I don't think the developer expected that tenants would use the subway. The project was designed as an island unto itself, at least until similar projects get developed nearby which may now never happen.

The East Broadway station is everything described plus its terribly crowded at rush hour. I hope MTA will prioritize but it takes a lot of lobbying and the Chinatown lobby may not be powerful enough to get anything meaningful done.

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
almost 7 years ago
Posts: 9876
Member since: Mar 2009

I don't see how they could have expected residents wouldn't use the subway when the project was geared towards Asian investors (i.e. a lot of units would be rented) and over 40% of the units are 1 bedrooms. I think the concept that 1 BR rental tenants won't leave the building (especially when we're talkin about 600 square foot net usable space) would be fundamentally flawed. What would attract someone to come to work in NYC, pay top dollar for everything, but never want to leave their building? And it's not like this building is close to things so people could leave the building and ignore mass transit to commute.

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Response by ximon
almost 7 years ago
Posts: 1196
Member since: Aug 2012

30, I can’t be positive but I suspect that Extell thought the vast majority of their buyers were not working in New York but rather looking for a pied a terre or investment property. Project was designed with a ridiculous amount of in-house amenities and either taxis or shuttle buses would make local travel convenient.

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Response by ximon
almost 7 years ago
Posts: 1196
Member since: Aug 2012

I said this before but I really think Extell may have screwed the pooch on this one. But I feel most sorry for the mezz lenders who will probably take the brunt of any losses. Extell seems to smart to have taken most of the risk.

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Response by ximon
almost 7 years ago
Posts: 1196
Member since: Aug 2012

I said this before but I really think Extell may have screwed the pooch on this one. But I feel most sorry for the mezz lenders who will probably take the brunt of any losses. Extell seems to smart to have taken most of the risk.

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Response by 300_mercer
almost 7 years ago
Posts: 10539
Member since: Feb 2007

30/Ximon/Knewbie,
So roughly what percentage below the current asks can the higher floors be sold given the drawbacks of location. The building is obviously very nice with tax abatement and relatively low maintenance for the amenities it has.

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Response by 300_mercer
almost 7 years ago
Posts: 10539
Member since: Feb 2007
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Response by Aaron2
almost 7 years ago
Posts: 1693
Member since: Mar 2012

Terrible waste of space with that MBR layout, and no obvious solution.

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
almost 7 years ago
Posts: 9876
Member since: Mar 2009

The free maintenance deal is essentially over (will it get renewed?). If they start offering the types of discounts they need to in order to move large amounts of product (with your "floor" at close to 40% off current ask) what happens to all the deals they currently have in contract?

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
almost 7 years ago
Posts: 9876
Member since: Mar 2009

As far as "worst case" price:
What does it rent for?
What return does it need to throw off at "worst case"? (And I think you need to count taxes at full taxes rather than the abated amount and keep the exess as a risk premium rather than handing a windfall to the developer and then getting kicked in the teeth as the value decreases when the abatement dissipates).
What do the two numbers above indicate as value?
Are you personally a buyer at $2.7 million? I know I'm not. So is that really "worst case"?

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Response by ximon
almost 7 years ago
Posts: 1196
Member since: Aug 2012

That's part of the problem with offering potential huge discounts. That was the problem with the W downtown, no? Rather than close their purchases, contract vendees at One Manhattan may look to retrade or sue to get their deposits refunded. If that becomes a class action, this project will become a complete nightmare.

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
almost 7 years ago
Posts: 9876
Member since: Mar 2009

Does anyone know when the "drop dead" date is? (The date they have to start closings or offer those in contract the opportunity to cancel their deals). The clock has to be ticking on that.
This article says Extell claimed early 2019 closings:
https://rew-online.com/extell-delivers-with-new-downtown-diva/
But first closings usually start a different clock ticking: construction loan repayment.

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Response by ximon
almost 7 years ago
Posts: 1196
Member since: Aug 2012

Extell is now offering 3-5 years of free maintenance at One Manhattan in addition to prepaying 50% of brokerage commissions. I suspect they will do anything to avoid lowering the listing prices as it could start a downward spiral. Other developers were recently rebating transfer and mansion taxes.

https://therealdeal.com/2018/11/29/to-lure-buyers-extell-offers-free-common-charges-for-up-to-five-years/

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Response by ximon
almost 7 years ago
Posts: 1196
Member since: Aug 2012

Also, higher stated sales prices will help Extell meet the release price requirements of their construction loan(s).

I notices that as much as $200 million of their construction financing is from EB-5 financing and reportedly, Extell was offering EB-5 investors first dibs on buying units. $200 million equates to 400 EB-5 investors which is a pretty large pool of potential buyers. I wonder how many contracts are from these investors and whether Extell achieved their expectations.

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
almost 7 years ago
Posts: 9876
Member since: Mar 2009

How much do you think first dibs on an Extell condo is worth these days?

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Response by 300_mercer
almost 7 years ago
Posts: 10539
Member since: Feb 2007

30, To answer your question whether I would buy at $2.7mm, no as I only buy value to be added properties. But there are people who want amenities, top end finishes and views. I compare this to 1 West End where high floor with views (will?) clear at around 2200-2500 per sq ft. A 30 percent discount pays for a lot of Ubers. And there are buyer who want proximity to Chinatown due to grocery shopping.

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Response by 300_mercer
almost 7 years ago
Posts: 10539
Member since: Feb 2007

Did I mention that with Essex crossing and this project, the area is probably ripe for a private school elementary level outpost?

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Response by ximon
almost 7 years ago
Posts: 1196
Member since: Aug 2012

The more I think it, the more concerned I get. If $200 million in EB-5 financing is structured as subordinated debt or preferred equity which is typical, these pooled investors are in a first or second loss position and could get entirely wiped out if sales proceeds are insufficient to repay them back. They will probably get their green cards eventually but will lose their $500,000 EB-5 investments. this won't be the first time that has happened in recent years.

Also, if they made condo purchases at the peak of the market, they are now looking at paper losses in the hundreds of thousands on the day they close. How happy will these investors be when time to close? How many will try to retrade or look for reasons to sue to get out of their purchase agreements entirely? If they join forces, it could get messy although I don't know what case they could make to get out of their deals.

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Response by Aaron2
almost 7 years ago
Posts: 1693
Member since: Mar 2012

If the EB-5 investment goes under, and all the investors are wiped out, do they still get the green card? Some investors may simply view it as the price of admission.

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Response by ximon
almost 7 years ago
Posts: 1196
Member since: Aug 2012

Likely they will Aaron as the investment does not have to be profitable only create jobs. Many investors can withstand the financial loss but they did not get rich by flushing money down the toilet.

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
almost 7 years ago
Posts: 9876
Member since: Mar 2009

"And there are buyer who want proximity to Chinatown due to grocery shopping."

So these are people who will take an Uber every day to go to work and everything else because it's too scary to use public transportation from this building, but won't just choose to live someplace more convenient and take an Uber once a month to go shopping in Chinatown?

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Response by ximon
almost 7 years ago
Posts: 1196
Member since: Aug 2012

Chinese like many nouveau riche are generally quite frugal so the lower prices psf at One Manhattan probably excited them. And with the money they "saved", Uber is cheap.

I feel sure Extell sold this project to Chinese based in large part on location near Chinatown. Just not sure if the strategy made enough sense to sell over 800 units. And I wonder if they thought buyers would not need the subway as they would have their own cars, drivers and cooks as that's what many of them have in China. Also, rich Chinese are mostly Mandarin speakers while Chinatown vendors are mostly Cantonese speakers so a bit oil and vinegar.

These units would have been sold sight unseen to many overseas Chinese buyers. You can imagine how the marketing campaign would have made it seem like this location was perfect in every way.

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
almost 7 years ago
Posts: 9876
Member since: Mar 2009

Except that typically the goal was to move away from Chinatown as quickly as possible to not be seen as FOB. Chinatown took a huge hit after 9/11 when the FDR exit got closed, Chinatown unemployment soared over 30%, and Flushing soared as the replacement for ABC who had previously been driving into Manhattan every weekend to shop. Chinatown has never really recovered as can be seen in how much earlier restaurants close. Pre-9/11 there were tons of places open till after midnight; now it's hard to find spots open at 10PM.
And I agree that the type of people who might be attracted to a Chinatown location are not the same group who are buying luxury Manhattan properties. I also think that a lot people who might think about this location are going to find Downtown Brooklyn more attractive.

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Response by ximon
almost 7 years ago
Posts: 1196
Member since: Aug 2012

Interesting points about Chinatown. In my discussions with rich Chinese, they do not want to be ethnically stereotyped and prefer to live with other rich people rather than with other Chinese. They like the trappings of wealth like high rise waterfronts and other amenities that One Manhattan offers in spades. And its a little complicated as its other Chinese that often refer them to certain projects so there is some of that lemming effect.

I think One Manhattan is a better quality project than many give it credit for. But I also think the size of the project, the declining market, the reliance on Asian investors (for development and unit buyers) and yes, the isolated location may ultimately spell disaster for - in order of risk taking - EB-5 investors, mezz lenders, mortgage lenders and ultimately Extell.

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Response by ximon
almost 7 years ago
Posts: 1196
Member since: Aug 2012

When I say order of risk taking, I mean from highest to lowest.

If this project had hit the market even 3-4 years ago, it could have been a HUGE success for Extell.

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
almost 7 years ago
Posts: 9876
Member since: Mar 2009

Well, it did hit the market almost 3 years ago, but it may end up being a lesson in greed and mishandling late cycle risk. As far as I can tell there should have been plenty of upside here based on land costs. But the project was overpriced into a declining market and Extell has been reactive rather than proactive. Had they come out at 15% to 20% less I think we would be having a very different conversation, but I also think there was never a time when the project would have been successful at the current numbers. They priced for an increase which never occurred which I have said many times has been the death knell of more than one large developer in NYC.

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
almost 7 years ago
Posts: 9876
Member since: Mar 2009

Citus, citus, citus... I think it was a mistake to think you can overcome location issues with amenities. You overcome location issues with price. They tried to make a silk purse out of a sow's ear. Although I admit things might have been different if this project had been built after the other supertalls in the neighborhood: in general gentrification is rentals followed by condos.

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Response by ximon
almost 7 years ago
Posts: 1196
Member since: Aug 2012

I saw many buyers on Mainland China choose amenities over location. The thinking was that the location would improve right before their eyes as other projects got built. These buyers felt that they were getting in on the ground floor at a very good price.

I think Extell saw an opportunity for a home run and really swung for the fences. Over-confidence combined with over-optimism?

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Response by 300_mercer
almost 7 years ago
Posts: 10539
Member since: Feb 2007

30,

On grocery shopping, it is the variety of fresh vegetables, unique baked or steamed goods, variety of tofu and sea food, which needs a weekly trip if not more.

I do agree about initial pricing being 15-20 percent too high for when they started to market. Guessing Extel does not put too much of their own money.

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Response by DeanStockton
almost 7 years ago
Posts: 17
Member since: Mar 2015

Re: “drop dead date”, isn’t this likely moot? Thought they got a TCO at the end of November and assume there were closings this month.

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Response by Gil
almost 7 years ago
Posts: 4
Member since: Jan 2019

Hi 30yrs and ximon,

Re the issue mentioned before – expectation or pressure on Extell to reduce prices due to constructions loan deadline –

AFAIK, the loan was issued by a consortium of banks (Deutsche bank, Commercial Bank of China, Natixis Real Estate Capital LLC, etc).
The current leftover is ~450M$, with original payment due date of Aug 2019, but can be extended by one Year and then additional one year.
(The extension terms are some minimal return from day1 of the loan, which is met).
In Extell’s yearly report to TA stock exchange (where they issued their bonds series), I don’t see any additional Mezz loan to be returned on this OMS property.
So, per my understanding, I don’t see any rush or pressure on Extell’s side with this dead line, so they can “take their time”, proceed with sales and return the loan on time.
Am I missing something or do you see any issue here?

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
almost 7 years ago
Posts: 9876
Member since: Mar 2009

Gil,
The original loan amount was $500 million but that was increased to $750 million:
https://therealdeal.com/2017/10/09/extell-increases-one-manhattan-square-loan-to-750m/
Are you saying they have paid down $300 million on that? That doesn't make sense to me in the absence of a substantial amount of closings, which to my knowledge have not occurred.

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Response by Gil
almost 7 years ago
Posts: 4
Member since: Jan 2019

Thanks 30 for your response.
My intention was a bit different.
Check out quote below from Extel’s latest 2018 Q3 report –
“the Company entered into a $750,000 construction loan facility with a consortium of banks in connection with One Manhattan Square,
of which $486,835 is outstanding at September 30, 2018. The loan matures on August 30, 2019”

Page 99/108 in the below link.
https://mayafiles.tase.co.il/rpdf/1199001-1200000/P1199502-00.pdf

I believe it means they have used so far only 486M out of the 750, and have additional ~250M available to withdraw from the loan.
This makes sense and in line with their progress report on OMS on page 38/108, which indicates they have completed 80% and have ~200M more to spend till completion.
(the table is in Hebrew, so you’ll have to count me on this one…

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Response by ximon
almost 7 years ago
Posts: 1196
Member since: Aug 2012

Gil, there is also up to $200 million in EB-5 financing which is probably structured as preferred equity. I suspect these investors are in a first loss position and that Extell might be able to default on this 'debt" with only a little pain although I suspect a number of these EB-5 investors are also unit buyers who may not be willing to close on their units and may seek recourse if they can find a reason to sue.

Surprised there is no mezz debt on the project. There could be an entirely different debt stack on the commercial portion of the project. Please let me know if you have any information on this other collateral.

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Response by Gil
almost 7 years ago
Posts: 4
Member since: Jan 2019

Hi Ximon,

You are right, there is indeed an additional Mez loan – it’s coming from RXR – currently around 460M – see some old details in link below.

https://therealdeal.com/2016/09/01/extell-closes-on-500m-construction-loan-for-one-manhattan-square/

From reviewing the Extell detailed report to TASE, the structure of this debt is pretty complicated as it involves a joint company (of Extell and RXR) established for that purpose – called EX/CPS which involves other smaller projects as well – 555 tenth avenue, etc).
Therefore, in the financial report this loan is defined partially as equity and partially debt.

Anyway, the details are not that important – just for our information that this debt has to be covered as well before Extell can actually profit from this OMS…

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Response by erecuattro
almost 7 years ago
Posts: 0
Member since: Apr 2018

This is an obomination of a building. Completely ruined NYC skyline. I can not believe it was approved to be built.

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
almost 7 years ago
Posts: 9876
Member since: Mar 2009

So it sounds like they will have $1.4 billion combined in debt/preferred equity by completion. As far as I can tell they do not have nearly that in signed contracts.

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 6 years ago
Posts: 9876
Member since: Mar 2009

Closings have begun, but apparently Extell won't say how many have been sold.
https://ny.curbed.com/2019/3/6/18253150/lower-east-side-extell-condo-two-bridges

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 6 years ago
Posts: 9876
Member since: Mar 2009

In today's email:

Extell offering free common charges in 1 Manhattan Sq till July 4th
5 years on 1 BR units
7 years on 2 BR units
10 years on 3 BR units

PS it looks like they are saying w/o tax abatement taxes will be
A little over $1,000 on 1 BRs (total CC+RET $2,000)
1 little under $1,700 on 2 BRs (total CC+RET $3,100)
About $2,600 on 3 Brs (total CC+RET $4,500)

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Response by Bklndent
over 6 years ago
Posts: 69
Member since: Apr 2014

Is Extell going to be renting out these units now instead of selling them?

https://www.boweryboogie.com/2019/04/is-extell-resorting-to-rentals-at-one-manhattan-square/

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 6 years ago
Posts: 9876
Member since: Mar 2009

"Update: a spokesperson for Extell corrects the record, and states that “These are investors’ units that have closed and are trying to rent the unit.”"

If Extell started renting out it's remaining units it would really screw everyone who bought in. Does anyone really know how many units have actually been sold/how many are still left?

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Response by 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO
over 6 years ago
Posts: 9876
Member since: Mar 2009

Perhaps it's just mediocre photography, but looking at the pics of the rental units - the finishes don't look that spectacular to me.

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