Based on the fact that brokers are not listing apartments with actual addresses, and are replacing addresses with "2 bedroom on UWS" in the past few weeks, we have to adjust the inventory numbers to reflect the lost units. UD now shows 10,972, which translates into approximately 12,000 by my estimate. Add to that the hidden new development units and we are probably somewhere near 13,000. At 500... [more]
Based on the fact that brokers are not listing apartments with actual addresses, and are replacing addresses with "2 bedroom on UWS" in the past few weeks, we have to adjust the inventory numbers to reflect the lost units. UD now shows 10,972, which translates into approximately 12,000 by my estimate. Add to that the hidden new development units and we are probably somewhere near 13,000. At 500 unit absorption per month (the current absorption rate) that translates into 26 month inventory, or almost THREE TIMES the national average of 9 months. Add to that the fact that our market saw much more appreciation over the last 10 years than anywhere else in the country, and you will understand why we need to correct at least twice what the national average correction is overtime. Put on your seat belts, fellow NYers, we are in for quite the ride...
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Response by CB123
over 16 years ago
Posts: 132
Member since: Mar 2009
Any idea how those numbers break down in terms of apartment size? In other words, do you know if numbers on the low end of the market are better or worse that those at the higher end? It seems to me that there is a lot of inventory at the higher end but not so sure about studios and one bedrooms.
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Response by Special_K
over 16 years ago
Posts: 638
Member since: Aug 2008
jonathan miller estimates shadow inventory (new condo construction avaialble but not yet offered to market) to be around 5,000-7,000 in the city. Not sure if that is all Manhattan. Anyways, does anyone have any clue as to why brokers would take the actual addresses off the listings? Doesn't quite make sense to me. It's hard enough getting people to come to an open house, much less make it vague and non-descript so that no one will show up. If I used a broker that did that, I would fire him/her for playing games with my listing during the peak time of year. Any thoughts?
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Response by spinnaker1
over 16 years ago
Posts: 1670
Member since: Jan 2008
dmag2020 - You hit the nail on the head...
This is precisely why current market value assertions we have been seeing lately are completely meaningless. In my book you can ignore all other indicators relative to economy, mortgage lending, unemployment rates, etc etc, and just focus on inventory and absorption rate trends as the real barometer for market value and direction. There is clearly an effort underway to disguise the level of real inventory in a natural tendency to make things appear better than they really are. Not unlike the real vs. advertised unemployment numbers we are seeing out of our government. Caveat emptor all.
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Response by NYRENewbie
over 16 years ago
Posts: 591
Member since: Mar 2008
Not only are realtors trying to manipulate the inventory numbers, they are manipulating the data as well. My realtor just sent me Douglas Elliman's 1st quarter report. Here are a few highlights:
Average sales price- $1,825,827
-Up 22.9% from 2008 4th quarter
Average price per square foot- $1,259
-Up 6.4% from 2008 4th quarter
Listing Inventory
-Up 15% from 2008 4th quarter
Average Days on Market
-170 days
-11 days longer than 2008 4th quarter
Listing Discount
-Up to 12.4% comparing 2008 4th quarter
When I commented to my realtor that this data was painting a much rosier picture than what was really happening in the marketplace, she commented that all the data was correct. But I was feeling that a report of this kind is disingenuous and makes Douglas Elliman look disconnected from reality. Instead of shedding a good light on the company, I feel it makes them look foolish. Any other opinions?
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Response by tenemental
over 16 years ago
Posts: 1282
Member since: Sep 2007
She conveniently left off the YOY median resale price decline of 20.8%. In fact, she left off any YOY comparison. The YOY inventory numbers went from something in the 6000s to a number in the 11,000s. UrbanDigs noted something approaching an 80% increase. Perhaps you should send her the links to the "If You Can Demonstrate Market Movement With Comps..." threads here.
It begs the question, why are you using this broker?
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Response by aboutready
over 16 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
specialK, there is a thread on this. they take off the apartment number, and you no longer can determine the pricing and sales history of a re-listed apartment(without a lot more effort, that is).
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Response by Special_K
over 16 years ago
Posts: 638
Member since: Aug 2008
aboutready, thanks, i'll look it up. that makes a lot of sense
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Response by crescent22
over 16 years ago
Posts: 953
Member since: Apr 2008
1) The average size of apartments sold in Q1 vs Q4,
2) the mix of new development vs resale,
3) the mix of condo vs coop (34% coop vs 41%)
all changed markedly, accounting for this 23% increase in seq. prices.
If you look at like-for-like coops you get a better sense of seq. price changes:
Coop Q4 Q1
Studio 382 365 -4%
1 Bed 645 580 -10%
2 Bed 1450 1125 -22%
3 Bed 4650 3425 -26%
4+ Bed 10500 8980 -14%
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Any idea how those numbers break down in terms of apartment size? In other words, do you know if numbers on the low end of the market are better or worse that those at the higher end? It seems to me that there is a lot of inventory at the higher end but not so sure about studios and one bedrooms.
jonathan miller estimates shadow inventory (new condo construction avaialble but not yet offered to market) to be around 5,000-7,000 in the city. Not sure if that is all Manhattan. Anyways, does anyone have any clue as to why brokers would take the actual addresses off the listings? Doesn't quite make sense to me. It's hard enough getting people to come to an open house, much less make it vague and non-descript so that no one will show up. If I used a broker that did that, I would fire him/her for playing games with my listing during the peak time of year. Any thoughts?
dmag2020 - You hit the nail on the head...
This is precisely why current market value assertions we have been seeing lately are completely meaningless. In my book you can ignore all other indicators relative to economy, mortgage lending, unemployment rates, etc etc, and just focus on inventory and absorption rate trends as the real barometer for market value and direction. There is clearly an effort underway to disguise the level of real inventory in a natural tendency to make things appear better than they really are. Not unlike the real vs. advertised unemployment numbers we are seeing out of our government. Caveat emptor all.
Not only are realtors trying to manipulate the inventory numbers, they are manipulating the data as well. My realtor just sent me Douglas Elliman's 1st quarter report. Here are a few highlights:
Average sales price- $1,825,827
-Up 22.9% from 2008 4th quarter
Average price per square foot- $1,259
-Up 6.4% from 2008 4th quarter
Listing Inventory
-Up 15% from 2008 4th quarter
Average Days on Market
-170 days
-11 days longer than 2008 4th quarter
Listing Discount
-Up to 12.4% comparing 2008 4th quarter
When I commented to my realtor that this data was painting a much rosier picture than what was really happening in the marketplace, she commented that all the data was correct. But I was feeling that a report of this kind is disingenuous and makes Douglas Elliman look disconnected from reality. Instead of shedding a good light on the company, I feel it makes them look foolish. Any other opinions?
She conveniently left off the YOY median resale price decline of 20.8%. In fact, she left off any YOY comparison. The YOY inventory numbers went from something in the 6000s to a number in the 11,000s. UrbanDigs noted something approaching an 80% increase. Perhaps you should send her the links to the "If You Can Demonstrate Market Movement With Comps..." threads here.
It begs the question, why are you using this broker?
specialK, there is a thread on this. they take off the apartment number, and you no longer can determine the pricing and sales history of a re-listed apartment(without a lot more effort, that is).
aboutready, thanks, i'll look it up. that makes a lot of sense
1) The average size of apartments sold in Q1 vs Q4,
2) the mix of new development vs resale,
3) the mix of condo vs coop (34% coop vs 41%)
all changed markedly, accounting for this 23% increase in seq. prices.
If you look at like-for-like coops you get a better sense of seq. price changes:
Coop Q4 Q1
Studio 382 365 -4%
1 Bed 645 580 -10%
2 Bed 1450 1125 -22%
3 Bed 4650 3425 -26%
4+ Bed 10500 8980 -14%