Oh yeah.... http://www.nydailynews.com/money/columnists/corcoran/index.html Q: While there is only so much space on the island to go around (hence the “supply” side of the equation is in good shape), can one expect investing in New York City real estate to be as profitable as it has been in the past? Is the “demand” side of the equation intact despite the carnage we have witnessed in the financial... [more]
Oh yeah....
http://www.nydailynews.com/money/columnists/corcoran/index.html
Q: While there is only so much space on the island to go around (hence the “supply” side of the equation is in good shape), can one expect investing in New York City real estate to be as profitable as it has been in the past? Is the “demand” side of the equation intact despite the carnage we have witnessed in the financial and asset markets?
A: All the financial mess here in New York City is really just a speed bump on the way to future riches. I’ve lived through real-estate markets a lot more hopeless than this one, and every time the city turned around and bounced back, taking real-estate values up with it. In 1974, I listed a 14-room, park-view apartment in the famous Dakota on Central Park West. The price the seller set was absolutely nothing! Zero! The owner was willing to literally give it away if I could only find some sucker to take over his monthly maintenance. I couldn’t find the sucker. That same apartment was sold five years ago for $18 million. New York City is a boom-bust-boom town, especially when it comes to real estate. Don’t ever underestimate its power to bounce back with bigger and better values.
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Response by bugelrex
over 17 years ago
Posts: 499
Member since: Apr 2007
Hmmm so we are no where close to a bottom then until we see a return of the following:
"The price the seller set was absolutely nothing! Zero! The owner was willing to literally give it away if I could only find some sucker to take over his monthly maintenance"
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Response by happyrenter
over 17 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008
this is hilarious. a potential decline to zero, which is what she implies, is a 'speedbump.' i mean, if you wait long enough babs will surely be right. it's not like nyc is over. but to call a potential decline of 100% a speedbump is just hilarious. is it a speedbump for the person who spent $18 million and could sell for zero?
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Response by eric_cartman
over 17 years ago
Posts: 300
Member since: Jun 2007
REDDOG, I think that is excellent advice. I will stick around and not buy till someone offers me a 14 room condo for free.
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Response by evnyc
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1844
Member since: Aug 2008
When they are giving 14-room apartments in the Dakota away for free, I will take six, please.
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Response by stevejhx
over 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008
"New York City is a boom-bust-boom town"
So she finally admits that we're in a bust?
First honest real estate broker in a long time.
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Response by patient09
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1571
Member since: Nov 2008
It will never get to zero, I will bid $99 (because it sounds better than $100) for any apt in the Dakota over 2,500 F2, irrespective of condition. Does anyone have Bab's cell number?, why let the owner suffer through the agony of failed attempts at selling. DO IT NOW BABS, hit my bid!
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Response by ManhattanRE
over 17 years ago
Posts: 69
Member since: Nov 2007
You can disagree with her, but, in fairness, she wasn't saying that going to zero was a speed bump. That's why the sentence about the speed bump begins with "I’ve lived through real-estate markets a lot more hopeless than this one".
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Response by dwell
over 17 years ago
Posts: 2341
Member since: Jul 2008
In essence, she is correct: The US economy is a boom & bust economy. Re: selling at zero, IMO, she's alluding to timing & bubbles. If you buy at the height of a bubble or you sell at the bottom of the bust, you get screwed. So, in the 1974 example, I assume someone was desperate to liquidate and they couldn't afford their maintenance, so they wanted to dump the apt just to be free of the monthly expense.
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Response by patient09
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1571
Member since: Nov 2008
How can she say she has lived through RE markets more hopeless than this one? This one hasn't happened yet. This one is just starting. Reminds me of the old great skydiving story hmmmm.
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Response by ManhattanRE
over 17 years ago
Posts: 69
Member since: Nov 2007
why do you say it hasn't happened yet? it's happening now; it may not be over, but why can't we compare where we are right now (and where we think this may end up) to where things were at another point in time?
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Response by patient09
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1571
Member since: Nov 2008
Manhattan:
Each has there own opinion. I think each cycle plays itself out differently, in every asset class. IMO, as long existing inventory is at levels like they are in relation to historical norms, and sales are at levels like they are in relation to historical norms, I see nothing but lower prices ahead. Additionally, the daily numbers are scary, we are running at approximately 4 to 1, new listings to contract signings, hence the growing inventory. The market certainly has a clearing mechanism, it is called price. The price mechanism will adjust to allow the market to clear. Nothing the bulls, nothing the bears can do to alter that. Only three things can impact this. Incomes, leverage and access to it and psychology. They can impact it both positive and negative. Currently, they all are having a negative impact. This means the price mechanism will adjust lower. The beauty of leverage in real estate is that it can force owners to do what they may otherwise not do. Trade up when they shouldn't in a bull market, or capitulate in a downward market. IMO, we are nowhere near capitulation in Manhattan RE. When that starts happening, then the hopelessness of the market will start. Then again, I could be wrong...peace...
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Response by dwell
over 17 years ago
Posts: 2341
Member since: Jul 2008
"Only three things can impact this. Incomes, leverage and access to it and psychology."
Add unemployment?
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Response by patient09
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1571
Member since: Nov 2008
incomes encompass all those things; unemployment, bonuses, size of workforce, job formation,salary increases yada, yada, yada..etc..
Hmmm so we are no where close to a bottom then until we see a return of the following:
"The price the seller set was absolutely nothing! Zero! The owner was willing to literally give it away if I could only find some sucker to take over his monthly maintenance"
this is hilarious. a potential decline to zero, which is what she implies, is a 'speedbump.' i mean, if you wait long enough babs will surely be right. it's not like nyc is over. but to call a potential decline of 100% a speedbump is just hilarious. is it a speedbump for the person who spent $18 million and could sell for zero?
REDDOG, I think that is excellent advice. I will stick around and not buy till someone offers me a 14 room condo for free.
When they are giving 14-room apartments in the Dakota away for free, I will take six, please.
"New York City is a boom-bust-boom town"
So she finally admits that we're in a bust?
First honest real estate broker in a long time.
It will never get to zero, I will bid $99 (because it sounds better than $100) for any apt in the Dakota over 2,500 F2, irrespective of condition. Does anyone have Bab's cell number?, why let the owner suffer through the agony of failed attempts at selling. DO IT NOW BABS, hit my bid!
You can disagree with her, but, in fairness, she wasn't saying that going to zero was a speed bump. That's why the sentence about the speed bump begins with "I’ve lived through real-estate markets a lot more hopeless than this one".
In essence, she is correct: The US economy is a boom & bust economy. Re: selling at zero, IMO, she's alluding to timing & bubbles. If you buy at the height of a bubble or you sell at the bottom of the bust, you get screwed. So, in the 1974 example, I assume someone was desperate to liquidate and they couldn't afford their maintenance, so they wanted to dump the apt just to be free of the monthly expense.
How can she say she has lived through RE markets more hopeless than this one? This one hasn't happened yet. This one is just starting. Reminds me of the old great skydiving story hmmmm.
why do you say it hasn't happened yet? it's happening now; it may not be over, but why can't we compare where we are right now (and where we think this may end up) to where things were at another point in time?
Manhattan:
Each has there own opinion. I think each cycle plays itself out differently, in every asset class. IMO, as long existing inventory is at levels like they are in relation to historical norms, and sales are at levels like they are in relation to historical norms, I see nothing but lower prices ahead. Additionally, the daily numbers are scary, we are running at approximately 4 to 1, new listings to contract signings, hence the growing inventory. The market certainly has a clearing mechanism, it is called price. The price mechanism will adjust to allow the market to clear. Nothing the bulls, nothing the bears can do to alter that. Only three things can impact this. Incomes, leverage and access to it and psychology. They can impact it both positive and negative. Currently, they all are having a negative impact. This means the price mechanism will adjust lower. The beauty of leverage in real estate is that it can force owners to do what they may otherwise not do. Trade up when they shouldn't in a bull market, or capitulate in a downward market. IMO, we are nowhere near capitulation in Manhattan RE. When that starts happening, then the hopelessness of the market will start. Then again, I could be wrong...peace...
"Only three things can impact this. Incomes, leverage and access to it and psychology."
Add unemployment?
incomes encompass all those things; unemployment, bonuses, size of workforce, job formation,salary increases yada, yada, yada..etc..