UWS price-choppers hope $999K is the charm.
Started by West81st
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008
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In recent weeks, I've started to notice genuinely attractive properties (mostly 2BRs) dropping below the $1MM mark. The $999K price point draws sellers for at least three reasons: 1) Sales under $1MM are not subject to the "Mansion Tax"; 2) $1MM may be a psychological barrier for some buyers; 3) Search engines may bring a wider pool of buyers to listings under $1MM. (By the way, I think #3 is a... [more]
In recent weeks, I've started to notice genuinely attractive properties (mostly 2BRs) dropping below the $1MM mark. The $999K price point draws sellers for at least three reasons: 1) Sales under $1MM are not subject to the "Mansion Tax"; 2) $1MM may be a psychological barrier for some buyers; 3) Search engines may bring a wider pool of buyers to listings under $1MM. (By the way, I think #3 is a red herring. The drop-down lists in most real eatate search engines are populated with "round" numbers, and all searches are inclusive of the search parameters. So an asking price of $1MM actually generates more hits, because $999,999 will drop out if the buyer specifies $1MM as a minimum.) Anyway, I decided to check how big the bulge at $999K is. On the Upper West Side, at least, it's pretty big: $940,000 - $944,999: ... 1 $945,000 - $949,999: .. 13 $950,000 - $954,999: ... 7 $955,000 - $959,999: ... 3 $960,000 - $964,999: ... 2 $965,000 - $969,999: ... 5 $970,000 - $974,999: ... 0 $975,000 - $979,999: .. 15 $980,000 - $984,999: ... 2 $985,000 - $989,999: .. 11 $990,000 - $994,999: ... 3 $995,000 - $999,999: .. 72 $1,000,000-$1,004,999: 2 $1,005,000-$1,009,999: 0 $1,010,000-$1,014,999: 0 $1,015,000-$1,019,999: 0 $1,020,000-$1,024,999: 0 $1,025,000-$1,029,999: 3 $1,030,000-$1,034,999: 0 $1,035,000-$1,039,999: 2 $1,040,000-$1,044,999: 0 $1,045,000-$1,049,999: 9 $1,050,000-$1,054,999: 9 $1,055,000-$1,059,999: 1 TOTAL: ................ 160 Equally interesting is how those asking prices got to where the are. Among the 72 listings in the "bulge", 35 (48.5%) have undergone chops of at least 5% at some time. By contrast, only 18 of 88 other listings (20.4%) have seen similar chops. Of the listings over $1MM, chops have been even less prevalent: 4 of 26 listings (15.4%). $999K is an inherently attractive price point, but it seems to have special allure for sellers who have reduced their prices to draw scarce, value-conscious buyers. Ironically, the popularity of this strategy may be rendering the price cuts futile; with the price point becoming so crowded, an ask of $999K is no longer a competitive differentiator. To compete effectively (unless the buyer pool somehow expands), these sellers will probably have to cut further or accept bids well below ask. If the 2BR market doesn't find support at the mansion-tax threshold, the next firewall might be at the conforming-mortgage cutoff. [less]
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Your analysis and some recent market reports prompted me to look at properties that have yet to see a price reductions. Given Prudential's latest Manhattan Market Snapshot, transactions handled within their offices in the last month showed an average delta between original ask and contract price of -19% (and growing). Now consider that 46 out of 100 UWS 2BR's between 900 and 1M are still at original prices. This is shaky ground indeed.
I know this is outside the scope of this discussion BUT... 62 out of 114 listings (2BR) between 1M and 1.25M are still at original list. They may well be the next ones headed south of 1M.
Very interesting. The apartments in that bulge must run the gamut of condition, location, etc. Nobody knows how to price right now, so are moving to that artificial $5K slot. The apartments that can't compete in that narrow slice may end up clustering just beneath that next-lower firewall. (Assuming that anything can compete in any slot.)
Very interested point on the conforming mortgage cutoff. On UES I'm seeing 2b/2b dropping below the 999k threshold in large numbers for the first time since the downturn began. So unless its really a special apartment, that number means less and less, and as a "value" buyer right now who is sitting on sideline, I was just talking to my wife about how maybe this means we look to buy something that we can get within the conforming mortgage limit.
Given conforming at about $730K, doesn't that put sales price about $912K, assuming 20% down?
1. I still get quotes of conforming, non Jumbo only being up to $625,500.
2. West 81st - this is my market and your study is very helpful. Can you break down what percentage are 2 bed/2 bath vs. 2 bed/1 bath and 1.5 bath? I also am still finding that the only 2 bed/2 bath convertable to 3 bed under 1M are only popping up in Lincoln Towers.
http://www.housingwire.com/2009/02/23/2009-conforming-loan-limit-jumps/
It looks like for 2009 the limit will be $730K, not $625. At least for Manhattan and Westchester.
$625K conforming (possible going forward) would get purchase price down to about $780K, assuming 20% down.
Anyone know what the rate is (approx.) for 30 year fixed (non-jumbo) conforming?
UES_Buyer, I think depending on your banking relationship it's somewhere in the 4.7 area. But the Fed recently announced that it may (or will, i can't quite recall) attempt to take it down to 4%, so even in terms of interest rates waiting might be a good idea.
And if you believe that the huge premium that once existed for that precious third bedroom is eroding, the repercussions for the 3 BR market are ugly.