Are housing prices going down?

very different story here in Manhattan... prices are steady and a few are going up

There are a lot of ppl who don't believe that Manhattan is different... even though no other place in the US has as many dual income no kids, or bonuses the size of property values in other states, or foreigners wanting to buy another home.

if you own now and you are not in one of these risky mortgages you are fine. you may not be aboe to sell in the upcoming years but renting will be great.

EXACTLY. I'm rent profitable already. I bought in 04. Thank you renters for supporting me.

#5 that's why i would never rent from an owner...why should i pay someone else's mortgage. Give me a lousy landlord any day!!

lol, the big landlords have probably been more profitable for years.

#6 that is pretty dumb logic since lousy landlords are owners too, except richer.

i have a townhouse in park slope and i have a list of people who want to rent it.

look at the down arrows in the rental listings as well...wake up new yorkers!!!

Rest assure wheter you rent in a condo, coop or large rental complex you are renting from an owner. I do beleive if you rent an apt in a condo that's the best because if the doorman, super, concierge or whoever doesn't cater to you when their is a problem than you can compalin to the owner and he or she can call the management company since their the ones who get the common charges each month. You have a lot more leverage than renting in these large rental complexes where you are just a number.

As I wrote earlier on another post - the mortage issues we currently see in the general US market have nothing to do with Mahattan. First off, foreclosures are currently 1% of all mortgages in the US (about $14 trillion total USD). Of that one per cent, about half (or more) are insured. This means that the reality is that LESS than 1/2 of 1% of all mortgages are defaulting, and that is a trivial amount, both in terms of percentages and actual dollars as compared to the total market. Furthermore, smart investment firms like Goldman (and others) are aggressively buying, not selling distressed mortgages right now - BUYING. That's the general overview.

In terms of Manhattan, you have to remember that the broad majority of residential real estate (over 80%) are co-ops. And co-ops have rules about who they let in their buildings, and in most cases are reasonably finicky about financials. You can be sure that there are very few subprime loans in Manhattan - that's for sure! And as far as other types of mortgages, co-ops are still careful about net worth, cash flow, the type of mortgage one holds, and credit history. Because of the big majority co-ops and the additional hurdles to entry of ownership, Manhattan is a VERY DIFFERENT MARKET compared to the rest of the country.

This has only a partial effect on residential real estate prices in Manhattan, of course. I just bought a new condo, but expect to be there a VERY long time (10 years minimum, probably much longer). So I do realistically expect a drop in average price at some point, but if your time horizon is truly long term, the idea of purchasing a place in manhattan if it's really a terrific property is a nonstarter. If you're buying to flip in the short term in Manhattan, however, I think you're in for an awfully rough ride.

you keep saying manhattan manhattan what about a place like park slope??

If you believe prices in Manhattan are somewhat supported by high prices in surrounding boroughs (queens, brooklyn, long island, CT, NJ) as these are the people buying "into" Manhattan the you should be concerned. These outer areas have no restriction on IO Neg ARMS that could blow up, these areas will decline and "may" drag Manhattan down with them.

Only people who have bought condos/coops at high, high prices keep saying prices will not fall. You are living in a dreamworld. Look at the arrows on streeteasy...they are all going down, none are up!!!

How come all the condo open houses I go to in the Soho, Greenwich village and Tribeca area are crowded with people? The last three I have been to over the past two months have had multiple offers above asking. Now I'm not a broker and I'm not crazy about them either but when is this dam market going to go down like 90% people on this board are forecasting. I need the exact date and time so I can get a good deal. I have bought a condo in the west village two years ago when everyone was telling me I'm crazy to buy at the height of the market. Well the apt has gone up close to 200,000 since then.
My friend wanted to buy a place in Tribeca 10 years ago and everyone convinced not to buy because it was too expensive now he wants to buy again and everyone is telling him the same it's too expensive.
I'm confused I don't get this.

#16...your anger is showing. The prices are going down but they will probably not be going down that much to make it horrible for buyers who bought at the highest rate.

arrows on street easy? they mean nothing! seriously, those are indications from initial list price -- which have little to do with pricing vs. what the unot was purchased for or what the market is doing. prices are relatively steady if not rising a bit. manhattan prices will not collapse. builders are much more attuned to the market than they were 20 years ago and already have begun to cut back volume. no one in manhattan is a sub-prime borrower, as you ca't be sub-prime and buy a $1M apartment. let's get real -- manhattan may adjust 3-5% either way this year, but over the next 5 it will be up. this arguement needs to be permanently banned from streeteasy -- same crap all of the time.

it would be nice to have some interesting and relevant conversations here for those interested in REAL ESTATE not this retarded rent vs. buy discussion.

How can there be a conversation when your mind is made up and anyone who doesn't agree is "retarded"

I don't think #18 is saying that people who do not agree are retarded, but that the incessant rehashing of the argument itself is retarded.

Let's just get real... even if the markets went down 10,20,30,50%... the renters probably still wouldn't be buyers.

People have been waiting for a market crash since 2005 and I don't believe it will happen due to the Manhattan market having too much going for it such as great economy, low interest rates, low unemployment and it a constant influx of students, new hires, transferees to major corporations etc.Anyone who was looking to buy in 2005 and didn't made a big mistake and definitely missed the party,now your money will just buy less space.

brooklyn is going down

If you believe prices in Manhattan are somewhat supported by high prices in surrounding boroughs (queens, brooklyn, long island, CT, NJ) as these are the people buying “into” Manhattan the you should be concerned. These outer areas have no restriction on IO Neg ARMS that could blow up, these areas will decline and “may” drag Manhattan down with them.

If you believe prices in Manhattan are somewhat supported by high prices in surrounding boroughs (queens, brooklyn, long island, CT, NJ) as these are the people buying “into” Manhattan the you should be concerned. These outer areas have no restriction on IO Neg ARMS that could blow up, these areas will decline and “may” drag Manhattan down with them.

# 17 I am angry that the prices are not going down so I can get a good deal but I am happy that the apt I bought in 2004 has appriciated nicely. So, I am happy and angry.

#23, From what you are predicting, Brooklyn prices will go down. Im looking for an apartment in Williamsburg to buy for our daughter who works in midtown. From what you say, I should wait.....I wonder what the others feel. I dont want to miss the boat as Ive done in early 90s in Manhatan.

#23 I missed the boat in the early 60's,70's,80's,90'and 2000 but I think I'll get it right this time and wait till prices come down before I even consider buying.

The mortgage problems and foreclosures throughout the US won't really affect the NYC market - EXCEPT it will drive interest rates up throughout the nation including New York City. When rates go up prices come down. This will happen about the same time as there becomes a glut of new developments needing to be sold - those sellers (unlike the average Joe) will need to sell their property because the sellers themselves are in debt. When buyers can buy new development cheaper than that co-op that needs fixing up then those prices will come down as well to compete. We're not saying a lot, but it will be proportional to the interest rate - say down 10% for every 1% increase. Late summer, early fall is my prediction.

Another indicator that this is looming - the 20 year anniversary of Black Monday (Oct 1987) is approaching, and we call know that a 20 year economic cycle is not uncommon.

actually mortgage rates may drop a bit due to the sub-prime issue; the fed has already decided that they are going to be less aggressive with rates (didnt anyone see the wall street rally last week?).

subprime will slow the economy, yes. but slower economy is good for lowering rates (i.e. there is less of an inflation risk)

renters who will never be buyers, keep posting, whining and waiting

i am going to be a buyer...i'm nervous not about the cost but about neighbors. Strange but true...living with horrible neighbors above you is a nightmare

poster #12 here again:

#29 - I agree. That's why we bought a penthouse.

#27--Why in the world would foreclosures and morgage problems force the fed to push the interest rates up? So, they can cause more foreclosures and mortgage problems.