question for UrbanDigs

yes

thank you.

That was a layup.lol.

everyone is telling me TO BUY NOW......but i feel that prices will come down also....noah.....do you think they will continue to fall thru 2010?

it all depends on when the next wave happens, and what sparks it. The first was sparked by lehman. i think once it happens, it will mark the bulk of the adjustment I think we will ultimately see peak to trough. but the bottom may be muddled with blips up and down but seeing below trend volume for years. some people are certain there wont be another wave. others think inflationary pressures combined with rising unemployment and no wage inflation will bring it. who knows. my eyes are open though and im way less bearish now than late 2007.

thanks but the summer will probably be a better time to buy since its slow - i would think?......i would think also that eventhought the economy might be improving...dont you think that come jan/feb 2010 comes along....we will see less activity since bonus time types/foreign investors wont really be there?

oh absolutely...he didnt ask me if it would be a good time to buy, he asked me, point blank if I though prices would come down. Im advising my buyers that have been waiting to really open their eyes starting mid this summer. Lets not forget, if this summer goes through another illiquid phase, it will be those bids at the next level down, that could get hit. Those will be the buyers' buying at the next level down, and therefore, a better time to buy.

ive said before, i think the 3rd qtr 2009 to 1st qtr 2010 will prove some great deals for classic 6s, 7s, and 8s...in my opinion. by end of 1st qtr 2010, im on record for stating that I believe the bulk of the downside move to be complete...

Noah, wouldn't you agree that regardless of "which" scenario comes to fruition there is no "missing" the market so to speak. At best we are aiming for price stability, the "new normal", along with economic stability. No one should be concerned at missing some Utopian bottom and rushing in where only fools tread...There won't be much to miss

100%

Im in the market for a 1 bedroom in murray hill.....are we saying that the current pricing out there now for 1 bedrooms wont change that dramatically anymore ....just stabilize at where its at ...which is about 10% to 15% off peak.....? Still amazes me that the manhattan market went up 4x what it was 10 years ago but with the collapse of foreign, usa markets it has only gone down 10 to 15%......truly sucks!

however you might miss a combination of the lowest rates, a property that you truly love, and ability to potentially get a great deal. I do have clients that could have had a property for 20% off that they loved, and chose not to because of uncertainty. When it went into contract, they felt bad that they lost their home. Thats the emotional element here. If you find a property you truly love and truly feel is something that may not be on the market again anytime soon, can afford it and jobs secure, and are happy with where deals are at, it may not make sense to wait. Its so individual. For example, what if 9% rates, higher maintenance, and higher taxes is what marks the next 10% or 15% down? So their is a give and take on that front. But I fully agree, I dont see any risk of this market running away from you on the upside as some would have you believe by current action. Fundamentals must change for that.

Mhillqt - Im sure you will see deals closing over the next 4-6 months that show deals for 1BRs in Murray hill at more than 15% below peak. It took years to go up and the best years, the parabolic years, saw 15-20% moves at most. We are what, 8-12 months in and we are down 20-25%? Real estate cycles take years to play out.

im in no rushh but do want to buy......so, you still think that the bottom for nyc real estate including murray hill might be the 1q2010....so better to wait till then?

am I to understand " RE cycles take years to play out" but the classic 6,7,8 segment will bottom in "1st Qtr 2010".... UD... I respect you... but I thinkz you and burkie here KNOW what the dealio iz but r letting "your" business shade your advice....

Mhillqt... just look at the rent vs. buy ratio.... in a deflationary period... leveraged asset owners take it in the shorts and not in a good way.

im in a rent stabilized studio....cheap....but looking to get a 1 bedroom.....i was also confused about urbandigs statement that it will bottom in 1q2010 but then also mentioned it could take years to bottom out...urbandigs....i respect your opinions greatly...please clarify..thank you.

yes...the nature of this recession is killing the higher end way more than lower end. I am seeing some classic 7s and 8s trade for more than 30-40% off peak post lehman. Ive described the pyramid nature of the correction, with bulk at high end, on UD before. I see the destruction happening in the 3M-5M+ market way faster than in the sub 1.5M market. Hence that statement

by now, you should know I dont let my business shade my opinions!

West81st - here Ill give you an example to explain.

1165 Park Ave - 15C - where does it trade? Classic 8, good location, fully renovated, open S/E exposures from high floor...

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/211308-coop-1165-park-avenue-carnegie-hill-new-york

IN CONTRACT now...In 2004, 2C traded for 2.8M. So 15C is 13 floors higher, fully renovated...Where does it trade? 13 floors in this location should trade at a big premium! Lets see when it closes and I bet it sells for very close to where 2C traded in 2004!

Sub 1.5M market has not been as affected as higher end, so far.

and I never said BOTTOM! Please, You have to read my statements. I said by end of 1st qtr 2010, I think the "BULK OF THE ADJUSTMENT WILL BE COMPLETE!" As in, most of the downside risk will already be priced into deals. I expect another wave to take us there, not sure on timing. I may have to push that out a qtr or two.

I am not smart enough to call for or predict a bottom at this stage of the game, and I wont put my credibility on line doing so. For now, I publicly discussed my near-medium term concerns on wave 2 of bank issues (prime, recasts, helocs, commercial, credit cards, FASB ruling on off balance sheet assets that must come on balance sheet in 2010 - 5.2Trln in off balance sheet at end of 2008 by 19 largest banks), and unintended consequences of policy actions right as unemployment rises, city bdget issues, etc..

okay ud.... let's play this thing thru (or until the wife gets home)... I see this market going like this (it's just what I would do).... i was in mkt for $2.5MM in 2007 at close to $1500psf... now I see alot of stuff that I would've never thought possible at close to $1000psf (w/ no end in sight)

in the under $1.5MM, I am seeing a lot of "in contract."..... Me thinkz in 1 yr... when the $2MM to $5MM mkt starts getting close to $1.5MM mkt, a ton of $1.5MM and under buyers will freeze and wait for $2MM units to drift into their sights.... this will freeze the $1.5MM and under mkt (like a parent walking into 2 teenagers in heat moment) forcing a dramatic decrease in activity for both mkts. It's gonna be a feed-back loop that's gotta go thru a couple a cycles.. with the Rent to buy ratio back to historical "norms."

I just think like the Norwegian Landlord who sold his estate for the 10 tulips bc 6 months ago his estate would've only bought 5 tulips, alot of the past 4 months in contract owners will know what that Norwegian guy felt like......

"my eyes are open though and im way less bearish now than late 2007."

it's really not cool to not be a bear on streeteasy digs....

jm. i love your botanical ways. and i must say, earlier...

Chill UD... I'm calling u or Burkie on the buy side, remember ? :)

yo JM...

w67th, digs will definitely be my next buy side broker. He won’t have to do much, but it will be fun if he gets a fat check and then has to say nice things about me on streeteasy.

hey i'm a girl ;)

movingup1.... then look down and tell me how many folds it has.... ahhhhhh .... you can't cause you're a BOY... and you get paid to say "I'm a GIRLZ."

as i stated before, i'm not looking for bottom and certainly not waiting for bottom, i just would like to be in the $850-$900 PSF range, and even though SF is not always accurate, and higher floors/views warrant more $$$ i have a price limit, budget if you will. now i can understand if i were buying a resale from someone who bought in2007 but when you're dealing with a developer who has a few units it should be more negotiable to get a deep discount on some leftover units, wouldn't you agree? or on the other hand if i wait a couple of mos. we may be in a better position to pay a higher price. i would be disappointed if the developer sold off all the excess units in a couple of months though

JM... I was hoping since I would bring him the listing and I'd do all the nego.... I'd pay him just 1%... for the street cred :)

Here's something I've never heard anyone else consider. 2009 tax returns will be the first finance industry returns that suck in terms of applying to coops. 2008 returns reflected 2007 bonuses paid in 2008. Next leg down... Many fewer qualified ccop applicants in 2010.

Noah, how do you reconcile 'years to complete' with 'the bulk of the adjustment will be in place by Q1 2010"....?

oh schnap! Rhino86... never thought of that one.... maybe all these trades are happening b/c the buyers know it's the last 1040 that's gonna show anything worth showing for awhile....

movingup1... I likez bottoms... it's so nice and round, and so perfectly proportioned... just laying there like that.... just throbbing away with the anticipation.....

No explaining to do yet. Next year, going to be hard for many to explain to the coop why bonus went to zero and taxable income went from $600k to $125k. Not to mention getting a loan from the bank. There just aren't enough people making money left to buy all these apartments at these prices. Yes, many people are making money...but many of them already own. Definitionally, the most successful secure finance professionals of 2004-2007 already bought a place...and even those people aren't feeling chipper enough to upgrade. There need not be a catalyst, this is going to bleed down through 2010 if not 2011.

the cycle will take years to complete...the pace of the deterioration, especially in high end that I made the latter statement for, is dramatic. I think by end of Q1 2010 the bulk of downside move will be complete. However, that may not mean the bottom. I think moves after that will be muddled for a while, perhaps years. Maybe we fall 3% one year, another 2% the next, and another 3% the following year. I dont know exactly. But by Q1 2010, I think you will see the bulk of the move complete (as in, 80-90% of the downside move, when we look in hindsight), make sense?

sorry JM! Process started, so Im less bearish. Im not a permabear, and we will get through this. I just worry about a 2nd wave and the duration of this slowdown. Im not ready to get bullish

JM - ha! that would be nice

movinup, no need to be defensive about wanting a good deal. bottoms are a fine thing, but not a necessary one for a smart purchase.

i'm ready to get bullish, but that stupid unemployment rate keeps poppin' into my head. bullish has many connotations. investment, personal income potential, buying power, and, of course, the economy in general.

that, and 2nd wave of problems with banks...and possible unintended consequences of policy (higher rates, higher taxes, higher inflationary pressures while unemployment rises)...get through that, and start to turn bullish..if we do have one more wave down and break lows, Im loading up on stocks!

Noah, I understand your statements now... I think I may call for another significant wave down when interest rates kick up, which will prob be later than Q1 2010.

If we agree that -50% is necessary...Sept 2008 to March 2010 seems too fast to me. In order to drop 50%, people need to get into the mindset that real estate appreciation is a thing of the past... To re-make the collective view that way, I think you need to demonstrate depreciation over a two or three year period, like the early 1990s... Who knows, maybe the internet speeds it up.

UD thank you very much for your one answer-exactly what i asked for, and then for your elaboration of your view of NYC market. this is why i posed the question to you specifically. -respected.

Rhino86 - very much agree with a couple of your points. On your most recent post, I would split hairs and say that what needs to be demonstrated for the mindset to change is that the depreciation can continue even if the world doesn't end. Much of the bull argument recently has been along the lines of "back in March people thought the world might end. The stock market, consumer confidence, etc. reflected this. Now that people no longer fear this and economic data is mixed [as an aside, I'm not sure how a combination of terrible and slightly less terrible qualifies as mixed, but people will grasp at any straw], the stock market has rallied and real estate must be right behind." This brings us to your previous points that
(i) there just aren't enough people still making enough money to support the market (middle to high end anyway) anywhere near previous levels
(ii) even those who are still making it are not looking to double down on real estate at today's prices and
(iii) no further catalyst is needed for prices to continue to fall (because the correctino to date does not yet reflect the extent of the damage alreday sustained).
On another thread a few weeks ago, I responded to someone's question of what would trigger the next leg down by saying that the only missing ingredient was time.

While I'm at it, a rhetorical question for the bulls: where does the bid come from that supports prices at or above today's levels for $1mm and up apartments?

One point that I don't think holds up is the 2008 bonus / 2009 tax return point. Wall Street's calendar/tax year 2009 comp has basically been known since 2008 bonuses were awarded in Jan/Feb this year. Bonus is what it is and base comes in over the rest of the year, but total tax year cash comp is not really in doubt. You have to submit a current pay stub or two, in addition to previous tax returns, so no one will be able to hide a zero or minimal bonus from the 2008 comp year in a 2009 co-op application. This is a 2009 headwind, and probably working its way through market activity as we speak, not a catalyst for another leg down in 2010.

Sidelinesitter, maybe the coops are smart enough to see through the tax return thing, but are banks? We are still looking at contract prices today in the Q1 data that may reflect someone in Jan or Feb who didn't need to disclose or discuss the low level of their 2008 bonus...And if they are buying right now, the pay stubs never did reflect their bonus, only their base. Food for thought. I think it will matter this time next year. So many out of work or under-bonused finance folk are out of the coop game for a while.

I agree with you only time is needed. Every signed contract is one less optimistic buyer who feels good about their job security. I don't believe there are enough of those people to sop up all this inventory. The hold out sellers will be marketing to an ever smaller pool of buyers. The entry level buyers to allow people to sell and move up the chain are also in short supply. The hiring classes of ugrads and MBAs at the banks (which number fewer by Bear, Lehman and Merrill right off the top of my hear) are going to be smaller.

Now that -30% is fact....Bids will come lower. I mean there was denial of -20% just a month or two ago.

And -30% is hitting the tape during peak season... 10% off that over summer is easy.

Rhino - don't disagree about the out-of-work and under-bonuses being out of the market. I just think they are already out so it's an '08/'09 impact not 2010. Banks may be as dumb as you suggest; I certainly wouldn't be the one to suggest otherwise. However, I doubt that many people were trying to slip a RE purchase in under the wire in Jan/Feb before the lack of bonus became visible. More likely these people were banking what they did get and looking forward to their lease coming up so they could get the rent down 20%. Bank cluelessness doesn't matter if there aren't many people trying to game the bank.

I am cautious on this idea that appears in your last post and a number of recent ones from others that every sale reduces the buyer pool, leaving sellers stranded. In a static world, yes, but every sale at a lower price also makes someone new into that 'optimistic buyer'. Basic supply and demand. It's not near the point where I'm a buyer yet, but at every price point on the way down there will be new people who decide that prices work for them. This dynamic and the phenomenon of better product coming into reach for people not earning Wall Street money is the best explanation for the relative resilience in price and volume at the lower end of the market - call it sub $1mm or sub $750k.

I think it's clear that for more expensive apartments the price elasticity of demand is lower right now, which would be consistent with your view of a lack of high earners to support that market and with the stronger downdraft in prices the last nine months. Still, there are still some buyers at a price, as evidenced by the fairly large number of my saved sales that have gone into contract in the last month or so with last asks of ~$2.5-$4mm, down 20-35% from peak comps/initial ask. These will presumably close well below last ask, but it's still a non-trivial number of, say, $2.25-$3.5mm closings.

"In a static world, yes, but every sale at a lower price also makes someone new into that 'optimistic buyer'"

Yes, of course, there is elasticity of demand at lower prices... But there is also more fear of further falls at every lower price point. I saw something excellent on this with regard to stocks...Demand measurably falls as prices fall; it rises as prices rise. I think a lot of the same can be said for real estate.

I am not sure I have seen resilience at the sub $1mm level.... What I have seen is $1.2mm apartments from peak moving at prices in the $800s and $900s.

sidelinesitter, i agree with you 100%. i have been wondering recently though what will happen to the lower-end market as the prices in the middle range begin their descent to the under $1mm point.

i think many people have been looking for only a few years. today's prices will look pretty good to quite a few buyers.

They do look good to a few buyers...Those are the ones that just bought. If there were many more left to whom the prices look good, we'd have a lot less inventory still sitting.

In other words, if these were the 'market clearing' prices... we'd be a lot frigging closer to clearing the market (of inventory).

However, the caveat is...much of the inventory out there is held by sellers who do not appreciate that in order to sell they need to discount roughly 30% vs peak price. If they all did, then I guess we'd find out how many more buyers are willing at that level.

rhino, i was typing while you were posting. i am seeing the same thing, a relatively large movement from the $1.0-1.2mm range down to the $899-999k range.

this does take some time. sellers need to see numbers that show at which point closings are happening, and that tends to be a quarterly process. but the declines have been fairly rapid, and we should be getting a whole hell of a lot of closing data shortly on the ones that went into contract in April/May.

what is amazing to me is that the inventory is remaining roughly steady. which makes us even less friggin' closer to clearing the market, and would indicate that this process will take longer, and potentially involve more severe cuts, than i originally thought.

As far as inventory, I am not sure the condo development units are all in the numbers...but that is just a hunch. I think we three agree it takes time. Q1 2010 seems too fast to me. Who knows.

rhino, i'm not even considering new development in buildings that aren't at least 50% sold and closed. that's another issue that should play out over the next 2-3 years, and could leave this market reeling in pain. that will, in my opinion, be the third wave down. one of the main reason i wouldn't consider buying before 2011-12ish, and by then inertia will keep me where i am.

if you take a look at the listing histories for the new developments that are attempting to sell right now you can easily spot thousands of apartments that are not listed on the market.

ar - good point about the episodic nature of (most) people seeing real transaction data. People who hang out on SE or use ACRIS see pricing closer to real time (lagged only by interval from signing to closing). For others, it's a quarterly process with the broker market reports, Miller Samuel, Times articles, etc.

also good point on potential impact on the low end of changing relative value in the middle range. Once people start thinking, "I can get so much more for another $150k, why would I pay X for this?" then more dominos (dominoes? not sure - must ask Dan Quayle) fall.

rhino, we 3 do agree. sidelinesitter, wonder how Dan's doing these days?

i think the bottom level will be hindered also by the very rational desire to own a property that can be retained for a number of years. if i were a first-time buyer, unless i was absolutely certain i would never have any children, i wouldn't touch anything smaller than a jr4.

As a first time buyer, with a newborn...its difficult to buy anything. As a finance person, the future is so murky, buying anything here in the city even in a great school district is like a ticking clock. In ten years, I'd need to have my child test into a magnet school, pay for private, or sell the apartment and move out...

The price point that would make me endure all that risk is very low...its probably 8x rent or so like the 1990s. That's frankly the only level I think protects you. Before Lehman, it felt conceivable to buy a starter place, endure a correction and sell near your cost basis in 5 years to upgrade. It was tough to conceive of the severity of this.

Rhino: have the kids you are going to have, and then assess whether city living with kids is your thing.

from rhino: "It was tough to conceive of the severity of this.

i think this says it all...i think many people have been shocked in the literal sense of the word. not to be overly dramatic, but it is similar to the effect of receiving bad medical news and needing to make significant life style changes.

the odd thing is that i still think the majority of relatively up scale americans are still in denial. that is one of my concerns with the way politicans are handling things. obama has hinted at the severity of the situation but still hasn't come out and actually laid out the problem.

no, the world is not going to end. and there are intriguing possibilities of silver linings. but things sure are going to be different.

Nyc10023, yes our next fork in the road is kid two in three years. I will have to see what space costs to rent or buy at that time and what I am earning...considering there is a war on my kind.

rhino, sorry, i'm often part of the war but it's nothing personal. some of my best friends (and my ex boyfriends) .....

10023 gives sage advice. the desire to buy can be huge, particularly when you're thinking of the kids and where they might go to school and their long-term security. but congrats on becoming a new parent, and you're lucky because you have a newborn and you have the luxury of a fair amount of time.

there's a whole lot of dislocation going on out there. i'm going to go out on a limb here and say that i don't think 1998 prices would shock me. that may not come true, but i think it may. your 2 to 3-year timeline is, i believe, a good one.

1998 prices would not shock me if we had 8-9% mortgage rates. I'm not sure that after living through this financial fiasco that I'm ever going to be comfortable with what private schools cost. But I guess PS 6 goes through 5th grade... If we are at 1998 prices in two years, I would likely make an 8 year bullish bet on real estate.

Rhino: so your kid was born this calendar year, right? That means K entry in 2014, and you need to be living in your desired district in fall '13. That's 4+ years away. Sounds like you will have another kid (or 2) by then. If I were in your position, I would not buy.

An urbandigs question.

What do you think peak to trough decline will be in NYC residential real estate?

And you may want to wait to buy after your kid has finished K or even 1st grade, because who knows if you'll like the school?

No, baby born in December. We will have another kid according to plan within four years... I would buy if it got cheap enough, and we could stay down here through first kid getting through fifth grade. Basically buy in two years...keep for eight years.

Yeah good point on the school. I am not sure I want to rent for another six years though in any event. Whatever the next bottom that forms, I think I want to be an owner.

That's not a newborn in my books :) You've passed through the worst of it in terms of sleeping & eating, I hope? That accelerates your schedule by a year, look to rent/buy in good school zone by fall 2012. I still say rent, until you're comfortable with the school. Besides, once your 2 kids are in, you can move out of zone after that (might want to keep a close eye on that DOE policy).

topper, putting UD on the spot like that!!

rhino, you've got the time, and 10023 is correct, you may not care for the school so either wait or be prepared to move at any time. although as 10023 has often pointed out, a few years at a decent but not optimal school will not do any damage, in the slightest, to your child. your concern is rightly middle school and up. and that's a whole lot of time away.

She's been really good relative to the stories we hear. I am happy to rent for three years. We are in PS 6 now. Wait you are saying people can leave nabes and keep the kids in the school? I never heard of that.

Crap, am I revealing another secret? Now the zoned schools will be inundated with people who cleverly rent for a year or less and then move. As far as I know, DOE policy allows your children to stay in a school once they're in. I've heard rumblings of discontent about this as savvy New Yorkers take advantage of this policy, but as of now it is still true.

Wow that is wild. Frankly, I don't know why I want to stay here and set myself up for 5th grade stress... My wife wants to stay. First things first, we need space for a second kid in three years of so... Maybe I will be making more than I expect then.... Whooooo knows.

6 months is a good milestone, in less than 6 months, she will be starting to feed herself! In another couple, be ready for a mobile baby. That's why it's kind of good to wait - some people really prefer having the kids in large sprawling suburban house rather than constantly underfoot in a NYC apartment or dragged around to the playgrounds.

When I was making more money than I imagined in 2005-2007, the city seemed great. Now, the idea of what I'd pay for the space for a family of four makes me nauseous, even at 1/2 peak price...given that it doesn't even come with a decent secondary school.

Rhino: burbs with good schools and short commutes don't come cheap either. Children are very expensive. My partner and I were both fortunate (or unfortunate) to learn this lesson young. Both sets of parents impoverished themselves by sending us full fare to private schools :)

and not to add another wrench to the equation, but $70k after-tax dollars for two private school tuitions, particularly with re taxes going through the roof here, can make your jaws tighten in agony. (although i must be fair and admit that my jaws were working overtime with just one kid, but a couple of years ago. now i'm resigned.)

I have heard this argument nyc and I understand it, but I think its over-hyped. When you add NYC taxes to two tuitions, there is no comparison by my calculations... if you really look at having reasonable space and a car in the city. I make the simplifying assumption that the kids are going to private after fifth and make my comparison based on that.

Aboutready, I am not going to agonize... if its agony, then I am out of here. If I am making the appropriate amount of money and we can capture an attractive apartment at the 1990s type rent multiple (8-10x), then we might go for it.

But if you got your kids in a great private school, 70k+ (don't forget private schools' tuition have risen far above inflation) and rent may still be cheaper than living in Summit/Rye/Manhasset.

Say you went the private school route and rented a small, no-frills apt in the city, at the end of the day that may still be a better QOL than the burbs for a lower price. Your commute is miniscule, you're not spending your life tied to the train schedule, you don't need a car. You don't have to maintain your house, pay prop. taxes, etc.

If your wife is working or wishes to work, having 2 commuting parents is hellish.

I'm not following your math. With $70k in AT$s in tuitions, vs living in New Canaan with zero tuitions...Not sure how you get there. I am assuming eventual ownership in the city...and you get charged for maintenance! Sure, having no car in Manhattan and renting a crappy apartment...I am trying to compare comfortable lives on both sides.

My wife is home for the duration.

CT! That's far, dude. I said easy commute.

rhino, that's the key. no agony. you have time, you should do fine. and enjoy the baby, and the next one. soon enough they'll be twelve, and you may or may not be wondering why you even care about the quality of their education given the grief they give you.

forgive me, my daughter's generally delightful, but has just hit that "i know more than you and you're a complete moron" phase. at least she still feels guilty after she's nasty. but they need to separate, and you've sometimes just got to wonder who thought it would be funny to have human development run this course?

Bottom line: we all assign diff. values to things. We place a very high importance on having my partner's commute be as short and as easy as possible. He already works long hours, wants to maintain a modicum of health by working out AND wants to maximize time with family. For us, it's just not possible with a CT commute. If if came to that, then we'd say goodbye to the NYC metro area altogether.

Anyway, your child is young and you're not finished adding to your family, so you have time to ponder it.

AR: I'm still annoying and snarky and think I'm smarter than my parents.

10023, i should just give up now.

rhino, rent if at all possible for a year if you are thinking of moving to the burbs, and try to do so before your kids will mind moving schools. it doesn't have to be your final destination neighborhood, you just have to get a sense of the compromises you'll make. it you're in a position that has some flexibility and not a tremendous amount of face time, it might work. but you don't know that you'll be in that type of a position forever. i don't mean to be a debbie downer, but we stayed here and greatly reduced our lifestyle because i couldn't tolerate my child not having the benefit, on a near-daily basis, of her absolutely wonderful, funny, loving, supportive father.

NYC, I don't see a huge difference between the 50 minute train to CT and the 36 minute train to Larchmont or Scarsdale. The time vs. miles trade is really bad in lower Westchester. Plus I grew up there, so it would be likely CT for us outside Manhattan....Westchester would be too same old, and NJ is too uncharted and its also NJ.

Aboutready, we are very happy renting in Ps 6 here... I have no intention of buying in the next two years. We have time to ponder it for sure. It depends where work takes me and what it pays. My work has not really entailed terrible hours, and I don't expect my next gig to either.

Rhino, I lived in Wilton, CT(next to New Canaan) and I got terminally bored. Also, the commute is just brutal, in my opinion. I've been in Larchmont several times, and it is like half way to New Canaan.

As a father I have to agree on the short commute thing to see my children. It's the biggest sticking point between my wife and I when she talks about moving to the burbs for schools.

I love walking them to school and being able to attend all their shows, art exhibits, etc. which I will never be able to do if we ever move to the burbs. However, middle school is the big issue. Our kids tested high in the ERBs with no coaching (we naively thought that ppl did not coach because the adimissions ppl could tell, plus we wanted to find out what our 4 yr olds were innately like) and they do well now so I'm pretty sure Stuy is on the cards in their future (that's only half tongue in cheek) but what to do with those 3 crucial, adolescent years? More research is needed.

rhino, good on you then!! sorry, we tend to hyperinflate overinflate inflate inflate inflate people's issues here. and good for you that work hasn't entailed terrible hours. i think your kids will enjoy your presence.

Rhino: your child is very young. See how the schedule plays out. Sounds like you're able to be out the door at 6pm. I would advocate renting in the burbs for the first year to see how well you tolerate the commute. I've done the commuting thing, and 50 mins on the train easily translates to 1.5 hours door-to-door. My partner does a fair amount of work dinners/drinks and it is a total luxury for him to be able to come home in 10 mins after dinner/drinks at 9pm. He also sees and gets up with kids in the mornings so he spends 45 mins with them in the morning as he misses bedtime 30% of the time. The other 70% of the time, he's able to sit down for dinner with the oldest child and I can't put a price on that.

Because he is able to spend time with the kids during the week, we don't feel pressured to spend every minute with the kids on the weekends. He gets some "me" time, I get some "me" time, and we go out as much as possible at night.

I own a house in northern NJ. It takes 25 minutes to travel from my front door to Times Sqaure. And that's on THE BUS.

Alpine: I have done northern NJ to midtownish/UWS many times and 25 mins is under very good traffic conditions.

divvie,

I don't mean to burst your bubble, but I know tons of parents who have told me that their kid is Stuvyestant bound and 99% of them did not get in.

divvie, how lovely. and how sad that we have so few ms options. i don't know if it will ever open but at the Azure i believe there is a new G&T middle school slated to open, and i don't think it will be zoned (but i may be wrong), and there was also supposed to be a new one chelsea-ish. you did the ERBs for public school? no judgments, just curious.

and divvie, stuy is a math/science thing. my daughter is very bright, but stuy wouldn't be a good match in the slightest.

"and NJ is too uncharted and its also NJ."

Make all the Jersey jokes yu want, but remember that peopel in NJ will always arrvie in Manhattan before you do. I know people who live on the Hudson waterfront and their commute to Manhattan via NY Waterway is only 10 minutes!!

AR, Rhino: it all boils down to your lifestyle preference. Food to one, poison to another. One man's drink, .. I know many working couples who live in the burbs out of choice, not economic necessity and they don't mind sacrificing time in the week with kids. Main reason is that they tend to be (gross generalization) homebodies anyway. As some of you know, I like going out, weekends, weeknights, whenever. Would be hard to do this in burbs.

That's why I said only half tongue in cheek. I am fully aware of the natural tendency to think of your kids as geniuses so there was more than a little irony in there. Sorry, I'm a Brit, can't help myself.

really dont know, too many variables, products too unique to each other, and too many price points affected differently due to nature of this recession.

my last comment was for alpine

And, when you calculate commute time, please calculate it from door-to-door. Otherwise, it's meaningless.