question for UrbanDigs

you're a brit? and i'm only just learning this? did i miss this in a red wine haze earlier? ARshusband works for a british-based firm. the husband always trots me out when the british bigwigs come over, we seem to get along quite well.

AR, we did ERBs for private, keeping our options open. They were the earliest sets of tests so were the first we ever did. We toured ps234 later, after touring downtown private schools and decided, for a number of reasons, that ps234 was perfect for our kids. Best decision we ever made.

Our kid are like me, good at Math/Sci, art and sport, plus very sociable and popular ;) so Stuy may be a fit and a shoo-in.
Sorry Alpine, couldn't resist.

I used Time Square since I don't know where everyone here works. I'm sure everyone here knows about how long it takes to travel from TS to their job, so add on that time to my 25-30 minute figure. If you work on the east side, then I would estimate the commute to be closer to 45-50 minutes.

I think I've only mentioned it before to admonish Admiral when he claimed that Brits spelled a word in the way that he had misspelled it. But you must have seen my comment about how Wanker is the perfect epithet (but so often misused in the US) with Tosser coming a close second?

we came very close to doing 234, had an accepted offer on a property in 2000 in the district but didn't go forward for numerous reasons. wound up in chelsea, and with only one kid the tuition was only painful, not excrutiating.

and, i know a lot of people who have gotten their kids into stuy. and a lot who haven't.

Alpine, bollocks. I've driven more in NJ than in any other place, traversed northern NJ at many diff. times of day. Shortened my life by breathing in NJ motor fumes. I'm not even going to spell it out in detail for you. I know one person with a consistently 25 min. door to door commute from Tenafly to midtown and that's because this person drives in at 5am and leaves before the rush.

alpine, don't worry. As an ex- Londoner and current die hard tribecan, NJ may yet still be on the cards in my future if my wife gets her way. No shame here.

I stand corrected. Bollocks beats Tosser. Can be used far more frequently.
Any one ever heard of the Dog's Bollocks?

divvie, of course i saw your comment on wankers and the like. but as i said husbandofAR works at a british firm. i'm used to the britishisms and don't think much about them. piss off is a regular phrase in my repetoire, and wanker ought to be as well but i like to focus on the isms because it gives continuity.

also, in regards to commuting from NNJ, I should point out that I was referring to the Lincoln Tunnel, not the GW Bridge. When I used to use the bridge, I actually found that it took longer due to all the truck traffic (large trucks are not allowed in the tunnel during peak hours).

Actually Tossers beat bollocks if I were to be grammatically correct.

Divvie: I've been trying to convince my partner to move to London so our kids can go to school there for a couple of years. In my personal experience, the US educational as a whole (as it's so US-centric) doesn't so sit well with me.

educational system

Alpine: I am intimately acquainted with the Lincoln Tunnel (more than I would like). I even know of the secret shortcut to bypass tunnel traffic.

Yes, I understand door-to-door, nyc10023. I am a stickler for it. It goes for Manhattan too! I did Midtown West to Wall and its 45 minutes...Longer than Bronxville to parts of Midtown East. I will be renting wherever we are for at least a couple of years. I don't think Manhattan has bottomed, and as such, I don't think the burbs can bottom until Manhattan has. Alpine, I doubt you are getting to Times Square on a bus in 25 minutes during rush hour. We'll probably be here renting for three years or so unless I get a job in CT, in which case I am pushing the agenda to move there hard. Working in Manhattan will likely mean living in Manhattan, as a renter near-term regardless... Then who knows.

AR, I did wonder. Now we are both enlightened :)

nyc10023, when I first came to the US I had a bit of a problem with the US education system but I grew to appreciate aspects of it. However, an English education for my kids is something that my wife would love and one that I would not mind. Can't see myself moving back there though.

Well, divvie, I'm not reconciled to a U.S. education for my children. We'll see.

which short cut is that? Are you referring to that narrow road that takes you under the light rail tracks?

Alpine: I've already given away my good Zipcar locations. If you travel LT enough, you should be able to figure it out.

I once had GPS on when approaching the tunnel, and it said something about hanging a right. Was that it?

Lotta finance jobs in Fairfield County. UBS and RBS in Stamford. Hedge funds in Greenwich. Good schools. And prices have come down substantially. Where I live price to rent ratios are about 13 X.

Yeah its on the brain as I had an interview up there last week. Where do you live? I've browsed the rental scene in Darien and New Canaan.

don't leave out Rowayton or Norwalk....a lot of people looking to unload there.

well, rhino, that would be 200% different, if you were to land a job outside of NYC. that, to me, would be a no brainer. topper, RBS? maybe not the career move of the century, although i might be wrong, they may be on a rip here that i don't know about.

I'm in Stamford down by Shippan Point (condo complex built on a marina). (You can get a three-bedroom place, fireplace, right on the water for the price of a nice Manhattan studio.)

Stamford is a prime express stop with lots of municipal parking by the train station.

topper, what are the school options like, both private and public? the housing options seem tremendous, as you say.

As I understand it Stamford schools are OK but not great. I really don't know about private schools - but I know they are all around. Greenwich is close by and does have great public schools. (BTW, Greenwich is actually quite large and there are many affordable "communities" within Greenwich.)

North Stamford is particularly beautiful and at least worth a look. Also very reasonably priced...but not as close to the train station as where I am.

In Stamford you have several private schools that are not so expensive as the ones in Darien or Westport. There is a Montessori in Wesport and a Waldorf in Wilton. Forget about public schools in Stamford or in Norwalk. Rowayton is a cute little town, no idea about the schools. I really disliked the public school in Wilton. I found a lack of diversity, of edge (in the good sense), and of fun living in Fairfield county. I fled. Not interested in living there ever again.

Rowayton is Norwalk schools, I believe. If it came to CT for my family, I think we would take the 'express stop' to a town with the good public school. As I can tell, thats Darien, Westport, New Canaan. As nice as Greenwich is, I think its a step down from those three. We will see how the job thing works out in the near term... then of course the next baby presents the next set of decisions.

Step down in school of course...not in prestige.

Personally, of those three I'll choose Wesport. Less stuffy and more diverse.

Noah,
"If you find a property you truly love and truly feel is something that may not be on the market again anytime soon, can afford it and jobs secure, and are happy with where deals are at, it may not make sense to wait. Its so individual."

thank you.....

who has a secure job?

Spoke to a friend of mine who's a VP in Goldman.
Word on the street is they're expecting a 'better than expected bonus' this year.

"who has a secure job?"
No one, we're all in trouble.
Forget real estate, how bout bomb shelters?

you did better scooping ice cream...

Well, it's a safe job.

Better than tossing salads...

not only are you a loser but you're disgusting.

Why do all the bulls have to equate the idea that real estate is overvalued with being super bearish on the economy. Get the joke bulls, real estate was overbuilt and valuations made no sense for a long time. No one is evil or even necessarily a bear on the economy to say Manhattan RE and fringe areas like LICC have a lot more downside.

Was Buffett a villain when he thought tech valuations made no sense to him? This whole characterization of RE bears is a pathetic attempt to defend an inherently weak bullish stance.

Did you see this post the other day, it was encouraging

NYRecruiterbo
3 days ago
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I'm in the recruitment field, mainly for banks, hedge funds, financial sponsors, etc..

I'd be actually encouraged by the potential for the residential real estate market right now in NYC. The level of confidence among people who are probably buying $1MM to $5MM apartments is increasing substantially.

Equity markets are on the upside.
Merger activity is increasing - remember that a merger deal takes many months before it gets to a contract and announcement. The activity is very high right now inside the banks as well as the private equity firms that are participating in about half of the talks right now.
Where folks like BofA/Merrill and Citi and UBS are having their difficulties, others like Morgan Stanley, Goldman, and Deutsche and Barclays are doing well - Deutsche and Barclays are being aggressive about hiring good talent.
The leverage that allowed for a lot of the hedge fund returns is capped, but what several have explained to me is that this means lower paydays at the top - the hundred million and billion dollar guys, and therefore a need to work harder by the fund as a whole, so more hiring at the out of school up to middle and up levels. This is good for the breadth of the market (the $1MM plus market)
Very significant legal activity taking place - a lot of attention has been focused on new associates, but new associates aren't making the real estate market. The experienced attorneys are working non-stop now and billing aggressively, and in many cases the activity, besides the uptick in mergers, is on restructurings. Once again this means that dollars are flying out of corporations and their shareholders and into the professional economy of New York, very strongly so. Same applies with the uptick in litigation that will only be increasing - notice last week how the Cadwalader case was not dismissed - there'll be more of that type of litigation. Even David Einhorn was out today talking down Moody's and whereas that is from an investing / shorting point of view, the actual litigation on the historical calls is mounting. This will drain the insurance companies in favor of the New York professional economy.
All in all, as the season turns brighter and warmer (hard to say on a dreary day like today), the Manhattan prime market is going to relatively be significantly stronger I would say from my various points of insight. I think that other than a short churning, we are at the bottom already. And so again, this does not apply to Queens or the Bronx or to the far suburbs or to California or Arizona or Detroit which are their own economies and markets.

This is all positive. However, you can't borrow money like you used to be able to, and all these condos sit empty.

and KKR and blackrock both posted significant reversals.

and those comments about the legal world are not correct in the slightest. restructurings and litigation are active, but most large law firms became close to 2/3s corporate the last eight years. and if you know anything about attorneys, litigators and corporate deal makers are not interchangeable at the higher levels, at all. law firms are shedding people like mad, including partners. most partners with cash own already. it's the younger and mid-level folk you need to keep a real estate market healthy. more hirings? in law? hah.

What all the economic cheerleaders fail to realize is, as you said, all that matters is the financial condition of prospective buyers. Not the S&P, price of crude oil, or any of this other shit. Recruiters are just as full of it as real estate agents. We just passed through busy season and inventories are still sky high.

"Was Buffett a villain when he thought tech valuations made no sense to him? This whole characterization of RE bears is a pathetic attempt to defend an inherently weak bullish stance."

LOL!!! Tech? That's almost a decade ago when he said that.
He's the biggest buyer of Wells Fargo and Goldman sachs over the past year. The sector which caused all this pain.

Yes, I know when he said that about tech. I am drawing an analogy. Sorry it flew over your head. Real estate in Manhattan specifically remains grossly overvalued relative to rents, regardless of what the S&P is doing, you dense dope.

"and KKR and blackrock both posted significant reversals."

Over the past month, KKR already made 3 acquisitions, prior to that they had non over the past 9 months.
More signs of credit easing and investor confidence coming back into this economy.

"and those comments about the legal world are not correct in the slightest. restructurings and litigation are active, but most large law firms became close to 2/3s corporate the last eight years. and if you know anything about attorneys, litigators and corporate deal makers are not interchangeable at the higher levels, at all. law firms are shedding people like mad, including partners. most partners with cash own already. it's the younger and mid-level folk you need to keep a real estate market healthy. more hirings? in law? hah."

OMG!!! You think KKR and BlackRock are law firms. You ignorant fool!!! It's like saying Citibank is a supermarket.

I guess we'll see if that jumps starts the drive to overpay for apartments relative to rents that was so characteristic of the 2003-2007 market, yet so unheard of prior. Good luck!

Hey, could mean good bonus for the folks on wallstreet.
The boys at Goldman are licking their fingers already for year end. Where's all that bonus money going???

GM files for chapter 11 and the futures are UP BIG!!
Government to help restructure. The number of expected job losses from this filing was completely fabricated by the bears. The markets are singing a different tune.

i took ericho off ignore for a second. error. where did i say blackrock and kkr are law firms? i was responding to the post above mine, which was discussing both m&a and PE activity. then discussed activity at law firms.

my husband is a local managing partner for a law firm of about 1500 attorneys.

"i took ericho off ignore for a second. error."

You miss me and my economic views didn't you?

http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-decline-from-peak-employment-2009-5

Ericho, I didn't realize you have views. As far as I can see, you are parroting prices from your Bloomberg screen and cutting and pasting bullish articles...and somehow hoping they protect your knife catching act in shithole LICC.

The 1987 stock market selloff was FULLY recovered (not less than 1/3rd like this one) by the end of 1987...Real estate fell through 1992. Honestly, how fucking stupid are you? You are throwing every bulling thing you can find on the board and trying to argue a real estate recovery.

not to mention that 52 inch flatscreen hanging out of your ass. is there some extra room for the bloomberg screen as well?

"The 1987 stock market selloff was FULLY recovered (not less than 1/3rd like this one) by the end of 1987...Real estate fell through 1992. Honestly, how fucking stupid are you? You are throwing every bulling thing you can find on the board and trying to argue a real estate recovery."

What does that got to do with today's issue or today's markets? I deal with real time data.
Over the past 2-3 weeks, deals in LIC are still closing above 600 per square feet. To call 'LIC' a shithole only goes to show how dumb you are. Every neighbor in NYC have it's own set of charms. Where do you rent Rhino86?

"not to mention that 52 inch flat screen hanging out of your ass. is there some extra room for the bloomberg screen as well?"

I have no intention of using it that way. Again, profanity..name calling...is what you do best.
Please contribute something of value here. How bout a link to the futures market to show how the markets are treating the GM chapter 11 filing.

It has to do with the ridiculous connection you want to draw between the S&P rally, the price of crude and the soundness of a real estate investment today. Clearly from 1987-1999 stocks roars while real estate whimpered. You have no sense of history, clearly. Enjoy LICC you 20-something dope. Its a shithole. That you and others will pay 600/ft there doesn't prove that its not...The proof is in the seeing, which I have.

Where do you rent?

I'm making a connection that an improving economy has a direct effect on housing. How is that wrong?
Did i say that housing follows the stock market step by step? Your ability to jump into conclusions is startling.

And LIC rocks! So does every neighbor in NYC!

Why would I tell you where I rent? The supply in Manhattan is overwhelming and overpriced. We will see if your factors impact demand enough to stem this slide. Doubtful. You didn't say step by step but clearly, by buying you believe your risk reward is good. I disagree, especially in a fridge neighborhood.

Well, i just want to see what great neighbor that you are currently in that makes LIC look like a "shithole". And i believe that the housing market in NYC will continue to stay soft until next year but with signs of an improving economy, price declines might not be as large as you folks are expecting.

LIC is a fringe neighborhood, period. It doesn't matter where I live. That is just fact. Anything can happen, the fact remains that rents are falling, supply is rising (condo completions) and we are still way above the historical relationship of prices to rents. You bought. You had the money. You wanted to. Enjoy.

LIC makes the bottom of the east river look good.

"...supply is rising (condo completions).."
Actually, that's not what StreetEasy is reporting. Supply have been stagnant to down slightly over the past 2 months.

"LIC makes the bottom of the east river look good."

Blah blah blah..

Supply is rising...New supply. Not to be confused with inventory. This is a prospective statement. Understand the word? Condos are due to complete in the near future.

Yes, its very bullish that 30% reductions in price since October have only managed to keep inventory flat. Very bullish indeed.

"Yes, its very bullish that 30% reductions in price since October have only managed to keep inventory flat."

30% from peak prices on all inventories?
Highly doubt it.

You are very slow. What do I care about ALL inventories? Clearly the units that ACTUALLY SOLD, thus impacting THE LEVEL of inventories you reference OVER THE PAST TWO MONTHS have been -30% or so. You are the one who brought up the last two months. I find it scary that steep decreases in TRANSACTION prices have only managed to keep this UNUSUALLY LARGE inventory steady.

Flat inventory doesn't equal improvement....it implies equal buyer and seller impact at -30%. Clearly we need to go lower to clear this inventory otherwise it should have declined over the last two months.

All units sold are 30% from peak prices? Doubt it.
I can find a number of units that were sold over the past 6 months that's no where near 30% from peak prices.

"...Clearly the units that ACTUALLY SOLD, thus impacting..."
I'll say that less than 1/2 of the units sold over the past 6 months are less than 30% from peak prices. It might be even be less than 20%.

What/where is LIC? Btw, this was a pretty good thread before the vitriol seeped in.

Ericho, what I am doing is called 'projecting' or 'expressing an opinion'. What you are doing is barfing facts. First off scrub, we were talking about the last two months not the last six months. Stick with me. We do not know what the closing prices were yet. Also, I think its pathetically self serving to assume you got 40% off peak, but somehow less than 20% of the buyers managed to get 30% off. Granted, LICC is a shitty fringe hood, so that is good for at least an extra 10% off peak....So call 40% off in LICC equivalent to 30% off in Manhattan. That said, you generously number yourself in the top 20% of 'deal getters' in the last two months. Give me a break. Clearly what has moved in the last two months is at a steep discount to peak...Why would any buyer with the benefit of reading the Q1 report pay more in May or April. You are just not bright. I am growing tired of educating you. Read a book.

I did not want to start a new thread. I am doing some price analysis, and this seems to be the right thread to use: When (year and month, if you can) do you think was the peak point for the UES and, if anybody knows something about Connecticut, the peak point for the Fairfield County (not too far, but towns like Ridgefield, Greenwich and, the farthest from NYC, Westport)?

No idea on the burbs. NYC peaked in Q1 2008.

Rhino: it really sounds to me like a job & house move to CT is where you're headed. Fewer worries on the school front, lower cost of living and better quality of living.

I appreciate both the commute and school sides of the equation.

I would say that NYC peaked in the late summer of 2007 since August of 07 is when the credit crunch started. The burbs peaked in late 2005/ early 2006.

I think higher deals were inked as late as Q1 2008 with the still-high bonuses paid out for 2007.

No doubt the lag in illiquid assets value plays a huge role that some choose to underestimate.

The rent/price ratio issue: NY had in the early nineties a good 5-6%, I just want to point out that it may never come back to that.. look at Paris, Milan, London where you take home 2-3% tops.. they are for the most part "old" condos anyhow

Are you confusing cap rates with price to rents... If so, the return on buying and renting a coop or condo in the 1990s got into the low double digits. I'm not sure where you are getting 5% from. If you paid cash for your LICC condo and rented it out...what would your cash return be net of maintenance and taxes?

where Europe is now.. around 3% in most properties i have looked at in New York.. if you find anything over 5% give me a buzz I got 5% from my first visit to New York .. but you are right, my point is.. it has crashed and thats why this market is not attractive for me.
Interestingly enough, of countries where you can buy and not fear to be repossessed, maybe Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Philippines have returns over 5%.. do you know more?

ue10021 - re: peak, a few opinions here

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/9531-top-of-market-date

Rhino doesn't know what he is talking about. I disproved his mistaken theories about historical rent ratios with actual data. He is someone who can't take being shown that he is not as smart as he thinks he is.

LIC is a great area. It is not fringe at all. That is like calling Tribeca fringe. When people spew that much hate on LIC, they don't know what they are talking about, they are jealous, or both.

Please, I showed you data that price to rent in Manhattan made a historic high in 2004. We all know the ratio climbed in 2005, 2006 and 2007. We all know (although you have denied), that prices have retreated to 2004 or 2005 levels. Therefore, what does everyone know by extension? We are still above historic price to rent (in other words, the ratio is still higher than at any point before 2004). You are so thick. You have not disproven anything. If I recall you threw out bad data off the top of your head from the 1990s. Here is the picture again you dope. If you squint, you will see 2004 was a new high...roughly equal to the 1987 high. http://wealthre.blogspot.com/2009/04/new-york-price-to-rent-ratio.html

LIC may be "great" in your opinion...but it is still a fringe area. You hope its the next Tribeca. I have a funny feeling the next great Manhattan neighborhood will be in Manhattan, not Queens.

Every conclusion you made about historical rent ratios was wrong, and I showed it with actual numbers from the NY market. It's tough when facts get in the way of your delusions.

I just don't get why investors are interested in buying Manhattan residential properties with net yields of about 3%.

Anyone?

Thanks.

You know, this ericho guy reminds me of that guy who posted on the board and said that bonuses were going to be up and things were looking great and that folks who didn't work on the street just didn't know. Bla bla. I found his posts from last summer.

Remember that guy?

He worked at Lehman.

"LIC may be "great" in your opinion."

LIC is great to thousands of other people. There's a small community of people that is enjoying 15-20 minutes of door-door commute to midtown Manhattan, water front parks and a close group of young parents in the neighborhood.

no, I do not remember that guy. He sounds like a figure of your imagination.

The economic data over the past 3 weeks have proven that my stance is correct. The economy is showing signs of stabilization. It's you bears that are fighting it with tooth and nail. Go ahead, tell me there's no sign of things getting better in the economic front. My face is right here ----> :) Throw it at me!! DO IT!!

LICC: You have no data. Please share with the class the data you have to show the Manhattan market didn't trade at single digit price to rent ratios in the 1990s. The graph I posted is clear. Topper makes a great point... Why buy a Manhattan condo to earn a treasury yield...its a joke, and even down 30% the cash yield is still lower than at any time before 2004... Why can you not see the bubble for what it was..You cling to it like a fool, thinking somehow its the new normal.

Ericho: What data? All you have is an S&P rally which may be right or may be wrong in terms of discounting the economic recovery. Besides, why do you keep arguing the demand side of the national economy vs. the supply/demand dynamics of the local Manhattan real estate market? No one on this board needs you to parrot the talking heads from CNBC.

Alpine: I think nyc10022 means tech_guy. But why do you need to attack bulls for the sake of it from shitty NJ? For the umpteenth time, why do you care?

Ericho and LICC: Its great that you appreciate what LICC has to offer. Its still a fringe neighborhood, like Williamsburg. Its not Manhattan and you paid Manhattan prices. At least Ericho paid Manhattan 2002 prices. Neither of you will enjoy much appreciation in the medium term.