You guyz are all jacked by of the preliminary U #. Chk this out.... I will predict the future.... U will increase dramatically in the next 3 months. Here is my thinking.... Cali (the 8th largest economy in the world) is about to close all summer programs for kids. This will affect the least able to handle families at a time when home values are already in the shitter. You are talking about parents... [more]
You guyz are all jacked by of the preliminary U #. Chk this out.... I will predict the future.... U will increase dramatically in the next 3 months. Here is my thinking....
Cali (the 8th largest economy in the world) is about to close all summer programs for kids. This will affect the least able to handle families at a time when home values are already in the shitter. You are talking about parents that are both hourly workers at McD and Walmart... no childcare... they stay home=> lose job => lose home.....
Then you will hear some ungodly tale of some parent forced to leave a toddler in a crib with milk bottle for 8 hrs... some will die (the toddler that is)... then you'll have the entire state pass an increase in RE Tax other other taxes to close the gap with George Clooney and Brad Pitt leading the charge for higher taxes.... either way the RE Mkt (w/ nascent bk buying orgy) will get clocked in the nutz.
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Response by aboutready
about 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
they are keeping the programs for high schoolers who need credits to graduate. a cost-benefit analysis i guess. hell, w67th, i read of one state telling the populace that if they didn't approve the income tax increase, the state would cut firefighters by 22%. Some nasty shit's going down.
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Response by w67thstreet
about 17 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008
these morons have no clue... they've never experienced the vicious feed back loop of a recession/depression....
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Response by alpine292
about 17 years ago
Posts: 2771
Member since: Jun 2008
and you've exerienced a depression w67? Exactly how old are you?
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Response by aboutready
about 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
he's timeless, you're bitter.
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Response by positivecarry
about 17 years ago
Posts: 704
Member since: Oct 2008
W67th is your father
Actually, for this to be correct, he needs to be your grandfather. I need a star wars fan to give me the name....
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Response by kingdeka
about 17 years ago
Posts: 230
Member since: Dec 2008
well, alpine, w67thstreet:
1. in a previous thread today used the word "the bomb", which hasn't been remotely cool or acceptable as being used since 1997.
2. used the above word to describe Michael Buble
3. those who like Buble are either female, physically over 70 years old, or mentally over 80 years old.
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Response by urbandigs
about 17 years ago
Posts: 3629
Member since: Jan 2006
I bet you tomorrows report is better than expected though because of bogus B/D assumptions, once again, and market continues its rally! DOW 20,000 BABY! PRINT BEN PRINT!
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Response by w67thstreet
about 17 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008
nice nice....
alpo.... this is a depression....family came to US when bx was burning, then 87', mini one at 91' then tech bust of 2001....
I'm under 40.... but stronger than when I was 30.. go figure? and it's all natural..... no needles... makes me faint... seriously.... hatez the needles....
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Response by w67thstreet
about 17 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008
feel better UD... funny how every single U # has been revised upwards in the last 9 months(?)... but its fun for shitz and giggles...
Every time I take my wife to a Buble concert.... I get laid... it's a sure thing.... I swear she'd bed down a stranger after his concert.... that's why I lovez Buble... and always go with her... :)
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Response by aboutready
about 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
UD, it's kind of fascinating. what's the one area that our current administration never sugarcoats? unemployment. for them to consistently and repeatedly tell us that unemployment will continue to rise (even thought they equally consistently and repeatedly underestimate the pace of that rise) when they gloss over so many other things makes me deeply apprehensive.
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Response by aboutready
about 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
although they are hiring hundreds of thousands for the census. (and sometimes then laying them off after a week or two, i read), so they may be able to f with the numbers more than a bit. and then we "bears" will have to say the numbers aren't right, and some will accuse us of "wanting" higher unemployment numbers. sick. and not in the agent rachel way.
why the constant comments from the admin about unemployment but sugar coating on everything else. i agree with you that is the message. wondering the logic behind it.
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Response by dco
about 17 years ago
Posts: 1319
Member since: Mar 2008
NYC is still in the beginning stages of this real estate downturn. Far worse is on the horizon. Nothing has changed people. Despite the "latest" move in the market, nothing has changed. I'll say it again. Nothing has changed. The toxic assets are still behind doors 1,2 and 3. Now they just refer to them a "legacy assets". Beware of the next leg down in the market. It is coming and it will cause many people to never again buy equities.
No the end of the world is not coming but I for one will not ignore the obvious.
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Response by aboutready
about 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
cc, got it. just like why did bernanke seem to throw the market under the bus yesterday? fascinating. robert reich had a chilling view on the bernanke speech. i'll try to find it and post it on the important links page. it never pays to forget that this is a political process.
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Response by aboutready
about 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
dco, once again, welcome back.
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Response by columbiacounty
about 17 years ago
Posts: 12708
Member since: Jan 2009
politics is not my strong suit as you may have gathered.
i'm quite intrigued by the question you posed; seems like obama is the biggest bear in the admin and everyone else sends the bullish statements. do you agree?
i am more and more impressed by obama although i completely don't understand where he's going with all this. may just be my own version of the need to hope but am interested in your thoughts.
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Response by w67thstreet
about 17 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008
thxs Julia... an anonymous compliment is always welcome.. :)
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Response by dco
about 17 years ago
Posts: 1319
Member since: Mar 2008
aboutready- Thank you. Its good to be back. I just wish the worse was over and the healing could begin. however I believe a lot more pain is still ahead.
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Response by aboutready
about 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
cc, i think obama is terrified of a repeat of clinton's first mid-term results, and is doing everything possible to avoid that. pushing, kicking, screaming (theoritically) the can down the road. we'll see where it lands.
Reich states that Bernanke was essentially the delivery boy to congress, shit's happening, you can't always rely on us to help out you and yours, so pass the health care reform bill, and pass it and its attendant costs upon the taxpayers now, like yesterday.
in the long run such a system should save huge amounts of money (although our ability to fuck it up is not to be minimized). in the short run this is a huge cost that must be born by someone, as the gov't only seems to spend on things like IRAQ, Tarp, Talf, Ppip (fail), etc.
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Response by aboutready
about 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
but you asked about the unemployment numbers. i think that in the long run they'll say that they always knew the numbers would be "bad" but just not "that bad" and that, after they get (or i should save have kept) this market high enough that banks can raise huge amounts of capital at better terms, is when they'll let go of this charade. they're still messing with the numbers weekly. the market is their bitch.
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Response by aboutready
about 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
i do the most interesting writing slip ups (if i do say so myself). i should save instead of i should say?
dco, sadly i agree.
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Response by urbandigs
about 17 years ago
Posts: 3629
Member since: Jan 2006
and the B/D model kicks in again - there you have it. It added 904,000 jobs last year alone.
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Response by bob420
about 17 years ago
Posts: 581
Member since: Apr 2009
I thought WalMart was adding 25K jobs
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Response by aboutready
about 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
from construction worker to walmart greeter.
those were not my most cogent arguments. having had some time to reflect, and not just rant,
cc, i think it's sort of like when a parent gives a child a bit of info, knowing that the child isn't totally stupid, and to not do so would cause the child to lose respect. we are the children who must be placated, who need to feel that our government feels our pain. and we need to believe that the great manufacturing and spending machine is about to take off, despite our pain, so that we have reasons to be cheerful and spend.
do you recall when Bill Clinton told Obama to quit being a debbie downer? the administration's tone, perhaps coincidentally, perhaps not, almost immediately morphed from "change" to "things are getting and will continue to get better."
and could someone explain to me how the 4-week moving average for initial claims increased, despite reports of weekly decreases the last 4 weeks? can you say downward revisions? initial claims is a key indicator to many economists of the possibility an economy is beginning to turn around.
+220,000 jobs assumed by the creation of new businesses in May. As others mentioned. So, 904K jobs added last year from this model, and about 350K so far this year, totaling 1.25M jobs ADDED since early 2008. Apparently there are NO DEATHS in the business world and new businesses are not only being create but are hiring like mad! What a world.
they are keeping the programs for high schoolers who need credits to graduate. a cost-benefit analysis i guess. hell, w67th, i read of one state telling the populace that if they didn't approve the income tax increase, the state would cut firefighters by 22%. Some nasty shit's going down.
these morons have no clue... they've never experienced the vicious feed back loop of a recession/depression....
and you've exerienced a depression w67? Exactly how old are you?
he's timeless, you're bitter.
W67th is your father
Actually, for this to be correct, he needs to be your grandfather. I need a star wars fan to give me the name....
well, alpine, w67thstreet:
1. in a previous thread today used the word "the bomb", which hasn't been remotely cool or acceptable as being used since 1997.
2. used the above word to describe Michael Buble
3. those who like Buble are either female, physically over 70 years old, or mentally over 80 years old.
I bet you tomorrows report is better than expected though because of bogus B/D assumptions, once again, and market continues its rally! DOW 20,000 BABY! PRINT BEN PRINT!
nice nice....
alpo.... this is a depression....family came to US when bx was burning, then 87', mini one at 91' then tech bust of 2001....
I'm under 40.... but stronger than when I was 30.. go figure? and it's all natural..... no needles... makes me faint... seriously.... hatez the needles....
feel better UD... funny how every single U # has been revised upwards in the last 9 months(?)... but its fun for shitz and giggles...
Every time I take my wife to a Buble concert.... I get laid... it's a sure thing.... I swear she'd bed down a stranger after his concert.... that's why I lovez Buble... and always go with her... :)
UD, it's kind of fascinating. what's the one area that our current administration never sugarcoats? unemployment. for them to consistently and repeatedly tell us that unemployment will continue to rise (even thought they equally consistently and repeatedly underestimate the pace of that rise) when they gloss over so many other things makes me deeply apprehensive.
although they are hiring hundreds of thousands for the census. (and sometimes then laying them off after a week or two, i read), so they may be able to f with the numbers more than a bit. and then we "bears" will have to say the numbers aren't right, and some will accuse us of "wanting" higher unemployment numbers. sick. and not in the agent rachel way.
west67th...you're timeless..i agree..never stop posting.
your theory?
cc, what?
thx W67
why the constant comments from the admin about unemployment but sugar coating on everything else. i agree with you that is the message. wondering the logic behind it.
NYC is still in the beginning stages of this real estate downturn. Far worse is on the horizon. Nothing has changed people. Despite the "latest" move in the market, nothing has changed. I'll say it again. Nothing has changed. The toxic assets are still behind doors 1,2 and 3. Now they just refer to them a "legacy assets". Beware of the next leg down in the market. It is coming and it will cause many people to never again buy equities.
No the end of the world is not coming but I for one will not ignore the obvious.
cc, got it. just like why did bernanke seem to throw the market under the bus yesterday? fascinating. robert reich had a chilling view on the bernanke speech. i'll try to find it and post it on the important links page. it never pays to forget that this is a political process.
dco, once again, welcome back.
politics is not my strong suit as you may have gathered.
i'm quite intrigued by the question you posed; seems like obama is the biggest bear in the admin and everyone else sends the bullish statements. do you agree?
i am more and more impressed by obama although i completely don't understand where he's going with all this. may just be my own version of the need to hope but am interested in your thoughts.
thxs Julia... an anonymous compliment is always welcome.. :)
aboutready- Thank you. Its good to be back. I just wish the worse was over and the healing could begin. however I believe a lot more pain is still ahead.
cc, i think obama is terrified of a repeat of clinton's first mid-term results, and is doing everything possible to avoid that. pushing, kicking, screaming (theoritically) the can down the road. we'll see where it lands.
Reich states that Bernanke was essentially the delivery boy to congress, shit's happening, you can't always rely on us to help out you and yours, so pass the health care reform bill, and pass it and its attendant costs upon the taxpayers now, like yesterday.
in the long run such a system should save huge amounts of money (although our ability to fuck it up is not to be minimized). in the short run this is a huge cost that must be born by someone, as the gov't only seems to spend on things like IRAQ, Tarp, Talf, Ppip (fail), etc.
but you asked about the unemployment numbers. i think that in the long run they'll say that they always knew the numbers would be "bad" but just not "that bad" and that, after they get (or i should save have kept) this market high enough that banks can raise huge amounts of capital at better terms, is when they'll let go of this charade. they're still messing with the numbers weekly. the market is their bitch.
i do the most interesting writing slip ups (if i do say so myself). i should save instead of i should say?
dco, sadly i agree.
and the B/D model kicks in again - there you have it. It added 904,000 jobs last year alone.
I thought WalMart was adding 25K jobs
from construction worker to walmart greeter.
those were not my most cogent arguments. having had some time to reflect, and not just rant,
cc, i think it's sort of like when a parent gives a child a bit of info, knowing that the child isn't totally stupid, and to not do so would cause the child to lose respect. we are the children who must be placated, who need to feel that our government feels our pain. and we need to believe that the great manufacturing and spending machine is about to take off, despite our pain, so that we have reasons to be cheerful and spend.
do you recall when Bill Clinton told Obama to quit being a debbie downer? the administration's tone, perhaps coincidentally, perhaps not, almost immediately morphed from "change" to "things are getting and will continue to get better."
and could someone explain to me how the 4-week moving average for initial claims increased, despite reports of weekly decreases the last 4 weeks? can you say downward revisions? initial claims is a key indicator to many economists of the possibility an economy is beginning to turn around.
UD correct 220k from birth death
and 226k in april. all birth all the time.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/SilKywW7ujI/AAAAAAAAGOw/oGETnlSRwjE/s1600-h/birth-death-2009-05.png
+220,000 jobs assumed by the creation of new businesses in May. As others mentioned. So, 904K jobs added last year from this model, and about 350K so far this year, totaling 1.25M jobs ADDED since early 2008. Apparently there are NO DEATHS in the business world and new businesses are not only being create but are hiring like mad! What a world.