Unemployment up to 9.4%!!!!!!!!

It's the end of the world as we know it. The end I tell ya. I will be surprised if people still live in Manhattan in 5 years

that's horrible. and it explains the decrease in continuing claims. people are running out of unemployment benefits.

there's something very wrong about that job loss number. makes 0 sense. something doesn't add up.

i partially get it. some of the explanation for the unemployment rate lies in the fact that new grads are not able to find jobs. that doesn't bode well for June, which is when large numbers graduate.

"there's something very wrong about that job loss number. makes 0 sense. something doesn't add up."

Face it, you were wrong. Things are not as bad as it seems out there. I worked at Lehman Brothers and got laid off late last year. 2 months ago i was finally able to find employment. All my prior coworkers are now employed too. It was a nasty storm, but things seem to be turning up. I had to take my resume off from theladder.com and monster because i was getting constant calls from recruiters.

" WASHINGTON (AP) -- With companies in no mood to hire, the unemployment rate jumped to 9.4 percent in May, the highest in more than 25 years. But the pace of layoffs eased, with employers cutting 345,000 jobs, the fewest since September.

The much smaller-than-expected reduction in payroll jobs, reported by the Labor Department on Friday, adds to evidence that the recession is loosening its hold on the country. It marked the fourth straight month that the pace of layoffs slowed.

"This tide is turning," said Richard Yamarone, economist at Argus. "We expect this trend of slower job loss to continue throughout the year.""

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Jobless-rate-hits-94-percent-apf-15449071.html?sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

I agree with this article.

i was talking stats. if the economy doesn't lose a single job for the rest of the year the unemployment rate will continue to increase. the economy needs positive job creation to prevent a continued rise in unemployment. these numbers suck, i just find it hard to believe that only 300kish jobs were lost in a month that had over 600k initial claims weekly.

good for you getting a job, not so good for the millions that haven't and can't.

good, so we'll not hit 10% employment until August or September then? do you recall the administration's assumptions for the stress tests?

Would anyone striking a tone of moderation or interpreting economic data as anything other than worsening PLEASE SHUT UP!! You are distracting from those who insist all news--even indicators suggesting leveling off of the recession--is HORRIBLE!!! It's awful out there and GETTING WORSE WORSE WORSE!! Agree or leave here.

I swear. These threads get truly tiresome.

kw, i agree there is moderation, but 9.4% unemployment rate is nasty.

play this for perspective http://tipstrategies.com/archive/geography-of-jobs/

Any reason why you would talk only about the 9.4% and total ignore the pace of layoffs? 345K vs 540K expected....

The actual unemployment rate is well over 10% as official numbers don't take into account those who have exhausted unemployment benefits, or those who weren't eligible for such benefits but are still unemployed.

InFamous, these lost soul bears are desperate as they try to talk down an economy that is improving quickly. They missed the boat as contracts are being signed, inventory is dropping and perception is rapidly changing for the better. The best part is it builds on iteself. The snowball effect. As it has countless times in the past.

Any reason why you would talk only about the 9.4% and total ignore the pace of layoffs? 345K vs 540K expected....

I dont think anyone doubts that economy is stabilizing for now..that doesnt mean the halcyon days of easy money is coming back to wall st. Its not for a long time. the next year or 2 are going to see minimal monetary gains on the street. a few rockstars will get paid here and there, but its not going to be anything like 2003 to 2007. Its over..and thats whats going keep manhatta RE depressed.

AR - I agree that 9.4% is terrible, but the positive in these numbers is that the pace of the job losses is slowing. That is how things get better. Think of the jobs situation as a giant ship that was going in the wrong direction and we were losing over 700,000 jobs in a month (January '09). This massive ship is now turning int the right direction, but it takes a long time to get the whole ship pointed in the direction (of job growth). So, as it turns, the economy slowly gets better. Job losses have gone from 600,000 to 500,000 to 345,000. They have gone down 4 months in a row. That shows we are getting closer to the bottom of the job losses.

9.4% unemplyment isn't pretty, but thankfully, it looks like companies are getting a bit more of a solid footing. It is going to take a long time to get the job numbers positive, but we have to go throught his period before we can get to positive job growth. It will happen. It may take 9-12 months, but as the job losses get smaller more and more companies will hire because they will feel that real recovery is happening and they won't be throwing their capital into a black hole. That will feed the job creation cycle, but it will take a good amount of time.

steveF, just out of curiosity, what do you do for a living? Reason I ask, is b/c if it is anything above and beyond finger painting or tying shoes for random people on the street I would be surprised. You truly do think like a child, if for no other reason, you think that everyone that goes against your drivel is a bear. I go against you (b/c you're an uninformed jersey piece of trash) b/c I am a bear when the market is bearish and a bull when it is bullish, but this market is no where near positive, nor is the news something to celebrate. If you have bothered to read anything on your own (besides this site) you would have seen that the retail sector is drowning and 1 in 10 people are unemployed.

Just think for a second when the fed ups the rate, what do you think will happen to this uptick in buying of RE?

waverly, I do appreciate your analogy and I do concede that things aren't as bad as they were, but there is a flip side to that coin. I believe that the pace of u6 is slowing, not so much b/c of the economy getting better, but b/c all of the people that can be fired from certain sectors have been and they are running on a skeleton crew. I think workers are having to work 2 or sometimes 3x as had for the same money to make up for the lack of the workforce, so in firing more people, the business in question would have to close. Now, I am not saying that is the case for every business, but there are tons of business that are holding on for dear life, keeping on the minimum of employees to get the job done.

I of course want to see this "Ship" get turned around, but I won't celebrate every piece of positive news b/c there is a flip side as well.

I held off on buying because i was unemployed but i had the down payment. 5 of the 8 units that i've been following entered into contract the last 2 weeks. It's starting to get real frustrating sitting on the sideline and watching rates fly.

Agreed, the R/E bubble is over and it will take a long time before R/E prices anywhere recover, not just Manhattan. If we compare our R/E bubble to that of the one in Japan in the 90s, in Tokyo, which if I recall correctly, left Tokyo R/E prices at 60% below their peaks, then Manhattan prices are near a bottom at 30-40% below their peaks. Certainly no one can argue that the speculation in Manhattan was as severe as the rampant speculation that occurred in Tokyo in the 90s. Also remember in the Japanese crisis, although their call rate was cut to 0%, and the Japanese government ran massive deficits to kick start economic growth, they essentially stagnated for a decade. What ultimately pulled them out of the woods was the decision to appropriate $500 billion to clear banks' balance sheets of hard to value assets, and the rise of the Chinese consumer/export machine, imported by the U.S. We, the U.S., need to learn the lessons of history. Now that we see some glimmers of hope, the U.S. has abandoned the public/private partnerships to buy up illiquid bank assets. IMHO, this is exactly the time to push the gas pedal and take all this stuff off their books and allow them (the banks) to restore their traditional role of directing capital to its most productive uses. Otherwise, we will suffer the same sort of productivity losses that plagued the Japanese for a whole decade.

"this market"
I assume you are talking about the housing market. Some of the indexes in the stock market are printing yearly highs now.

waverly, as i've indicated, my one area of great worry now is the states and local governments. also, i'm seeing layoffs pick up in health care again, due to the fact that so many people are losing insurance. and i really just don't see how there were over 2.4mm initial claims that month and only 345k jobs lost. the census bureau may be the answer to my question, but temporary governmental hiring, while better than nothing, isn't any sign of systemic improvement, and as they need to hire huge numbers this may mean that this number is much worse than it appears. they have also been increasing military spending, i believe as a way to obfuscate matters. NFP is never a particularly accurate beast, but i guess you could say that could go either way.

the b/d model added 226k and 220k jobs for april and may, usually job creation is robust for small businesses in the spring. i have to doubt those numbers this year.

InFamous. You are correct, I am talking about RE. Sure, the markets as a whole are up 30 40% from the bottom, but the fall is what's killed everyone and people are still scared to put money to work.

chunderboy: "Sure, the markets as a whole are up 30 40% from the bottom, but the fall is what's killed everyone and people are still scared to put money to work."

In fact, you are dead wrong. From an institutional perspective, money is flowing into riskier asset classes (e.g., stocks and corporate bonds), which is one of the major reasons why you are seeing a depression in U.S. treasuries. In Asia, that return of risk appetite translates to even more pronounced gains in their equity markets. However, all of this does not translate into gains in the R/E market, which may continue to fall or remain flat, as prices attempt to correct, discounting, in effect, the leverage effect of the past several years.

Here's my biggest concern. If this economy continues to improve going forward, rates will start to push higher. Housing prices might still stay soft but with higher rates outpacing the decline, i might get priced out. Just this past 2 weeks, my monthly payment went up 400 dollars based on a 700K loan. The units i was tracking would need to drop 50-60K to compensate for the higher rates.

Another 100 basis point move on the 30 year and i can forget about buying. My monthly payment will be up around 800-1000 dollars more compare to 2 weeks ago.

higher rates = lower prices in manhattan. makes already declining rentals that much more attractive.

ManhattanKing, wow, dead wrong. Great, from an institutional perspective things are going well (tarp funds), but how about from an individual perspective? Also, Asia wasn't hit as hard as we were, so it makes sense that they have more of an appetite for for riskier assets.

and maybe they've had their fill of dollars.

"higher rates = lower prices in manhattan. makes already declining rentals that much more attractive."

Not seeing it over the past 2 weeks. I hope prices will be substantially lower by year end.

chnuderboy - Companies are definitely getting more work out of existing employees. That is exactly what they do in a recession. But you can only do that for so long. Companies will not hire newemployees until they see some signs that the downturn is ebbing and that recovery is real. If the jobs numbers continue to decline over the next 2 months more and more companies will begin to slowly hire people back. This is how the cycle clears itself and it is not quick, but this is some good news (all things are relative of course).

AR - healthcare is on sector that had positive job growth and has for many months.

Not seeing it over the past 2 weeks. I hope prices will be substantially lower by year end.

takes time..its a very chunky market unlike equities

waverly, but i'm not so sure that's going to continue. and that's not a good sign, for the health of the economy or our population.

Great!
No one believe in a recovery 2 weeks back and now everyone is talking about it.

Why do i get this feeling i missed out on my entry to buying a nice place in Manhattan.

Checking in to drop a quick note.....

<>

I TOLD YOU SO.

Shut your pie hole you bitch ass!

InFamous, so buy already.

waverly, here is an example. the layoff information i have seen seems to indicate that many of the jobs will be cut in the July time frame.

http://www.fiercehealthcare.com/story/trend-hospital-jobs-continue-disappear/2009-06-03

Infamous = RE mole

chunderboy: "but how about from an individual perspective?"

I'm talking about institutional investors my friend. The very same folks that are managing your 401(k) or pension, so i.e., your/my money. TARP has nothing to do with this. Money is coming out of safe havens and into the private sector. The reason Asia is recovering faster, is not because they "[weren't] hit as hard as we were," it is because they have reserves (e.g., China) or are using fiscal policy (e.g., India) to fund domestic stimulus. That is causing their domestic demand to increase and thus, you see more productivity in that area of the world.

Ultimately though, this will not translate necessarily into gains in the R/E market, which is traditionally more of a safe haven. Prices may continue to fall so the system can rid itself of the debt distortion to prices, which depending on the level of speculation in Manhattan, may be 30-40% off their peak prices.

InFamous: I got some bad news for you friend. Interest rates will continue to rise, especially if the U.S. government continues to deficit spend and print money. As the dollar continues to devalue, the speculators and arbs will denominate more loans in dollars, in the hopes of paying them off with less units of local currency. In order to stablize the fall of the dollar, the U.S. government will need to repurchase all that money it printed, and it will issue more debt, which will cause interest rates to rise. Unless the U.S. just allows to the currency to fall, which will create a whole other set of problems.

'Why do i get this feeling i missed out on my entry to buying a nice place in Manhattan.'

Agenda Revieled!!!!

9.4% Hello???
This isn't the stock market and since when is the stock market the economy?
Slowing job loss? OK, it's better than increasing job loss but, hardly something to break out the Crystal for. You know how this plays...businesses with mosdest fiscal decreases take the oppertunity to squeeze their employees for greater productivity under the guise of a 'bad economy'. Less employees working scared and consequently harder allows companies to decrease payrolls. Nobody hires additionals untill things really get good and that will take a while.

All that being said, a lot of my 'saves' are going into contract and few new properties are peaking my interest. I'll stick to my bearish mind set but, I'm having difficulty reconciling the immediate reality.

asia early recovery = china sells bonds = US $crewd

ManhattanKing, I manage my own 401k and that is why I am in the black. So, the tarp funds that the banks received didn't go into buying deeply discounted investment vehicles? HMMMM, where did it go then?

falco, the quarter ends in just a few weeks.

the quarter ends...OK?
In the words of the great Ricky Ricardo, "Splain it to me?"

https://www.wellsfargo.com/mortgage/rates/

30 year fix at 5.65! Wow!

Um, this is not recovery. That would be climbing out of the hole. This is just showing that the hole is being dug at a slower pace. Stocks are still way in bear market territory, so still in that hole. We have just watched the end of one of the greatest American industries (banking already happened). THis is the sound of silence after the earthquake when the rubble has mostly stopped falling and we look around in the dust. We have A LOT of rebuilding to do.

This little bit of commentary I think is spot on:

"By any measure, though, the economy remains in very bad shape. A broader measure of job-market distress than the unemployment rate — one that counts, among others, part-time workers who want to be working full time — shows a rate of 16.4 percent.

And unemployment is likely to continue rising for months, and maybe even a couple of years, to come. To keep up with population growth, the economy needs to add about 150,000 jobs a month. Anything less than that, and joblessness typically rises. The most recent previous recession ended in November 2001, but the jobless rate continued to increase into mid-2003.

“We’re a million miles away from a recovery,” Mr. Shepherdson told my colleague Jack Healy."

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/06/05/end-of-the-panic/?hp

Doses of reality:

“The inescapable fact is that the U.S. consumer is faced with daunting fundamentals. Wage and salary income growth has evaporated, credit is very tight, home prices continue to decline, financial asset values have been decimated, and household balance sheets are generally a wreck…[H]ouseholds are reverting to a more sustainable spending path vis-à-vis income that allows scope for paying down debt and adding to savings. These are longer-term trends, which, when combined with still sizable cyclical declines in employment we are now seeing, makes it probable that the U.S. consumer will remain a drag on economic activity in coming quarters. Fiscal stimulus will help to blunt this, but is unlikely to turn the tide completely.” — Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist, MFR Inc.

“The smaller loss in employment…came at the expense of hours worked, which dropped across the board. As such, the index of aggregate hours worked accelerated to the downside in both the overall economy and in manufacturing, suggesting another month of weak wage and salary income and another decline in industrial production.” — Steven Ricchiuto, chief economist, Mizuho Securities

“[R]etail, construction and finance losses all slowed. What’s happening here is the end of the post-Lehman panic, which hugely accelerated the pace of losses. But it would be very dangerous to extrapolate this into absolute job gains; why would companies hire? Unemployment horrific, wage gains tanking. Less bad, yes; good, no.” — Ian Shepherdson, High Frequency Economics

http://blogs.moneycentral.msn.com/topstocks/archive/2009/06/04/insurance-company-buys-400-million-in-gold.aspx

this company has had phenomenal success historically with their investment decisions. this indicates they took some substantial losses in the downturn, but generally they do quite well.

falco, i keep talking to you about the upcoming sales and price figures (and numbers for units falling out of contract). well, once the quarter ends, all those charts will be updated. no way to tell for certain, but my instincts tell me they may be interesting.

AR,
Did you notice that the fat 2M loft on Bdwy. went into contract?
Too bad, I liked that odd-ball place. Not for 2M.

chunderboy: "I manage my own 401k and that is why I am in the black. So, the tarp funds that the banks received didn't go into buying deeply discounted investment vehicles? HMMMM, where did it go then?"

Congratulations chunderboy on your investing wisdom! But ultimately, your 401(k) is invested in something and is presumably not under your bed. If you're in treasuries, then they've taken a hit, so you're probably in private sector assets and thus, back to my original point, there is more of an appetite for riskier classes of assets, which is why we're seeing a buoy in the market, of recent.

The TARP funds went to shoring up bank balance sheets, NOT buying up assets. If you remember back a few months, then Sec. Paulson abandoned the plan to buy "toxic" assets, and because Americans are once again becoming complacent with this miserable economic data, we are again backing off the idea of buying up these toxic assets. Admittdly, this is a hard to swallow idea ... to put U.S. taxpayer money on the hook for these shaky assets b/c it would once and for all tell the U.S. taxpayer how much he/she owes for this R/E bubble collapse. But from the bank side, would you resume normal lending with all these assets on your books?!? It's like asking someone with a garage full of garbage that they couldn't sell anywhere, to buy more stuff for their house. I guess the Obama Administration, like everyone else, is hoping the invisible hand of god will descend and restore market confidence in these assets, such as to create a functioning market. It didn't work for Latin America, and Japan, but maybe it'll work for us, because we're Americans and even the very forces of nature suspend their routine for the U.S.

this bear market rally viciously rolls on. still lots of cash on the sidelines so i expect rally to continue. however there are lots of balance sheets that need to be repaired from individual households on up to big corporations. an improving stock market helps both but both are hoarding cash now as well by curtailing spending. that means little to no hiring by companies. interest rates are rising and can be expected to continue their climb. what does this mean for RE? ain't good in those markets which have seen only a moderate correction from bubble highs. that, unfortunately for the owners and brokers on this board means, NYC. rising housing prices from 2004 to 2008 were wholly dependent upon a credit bubble. that bubble has burst and housing is reverting to what typically drives it: employment and interest rates. both are flashing bearish signals for housing. yes we are seeing a month over month increase in RE purchases but this is a pattern i would eventually short on a stock chart.

falco, i've learned the hard way. never fall in love with an apartment until the keys are in your hand and the legal docs have been signed. there are plenty more fish in the sea, and i like to fish. it was priced far better than most properties currently on the market in that neighborhood, and thus it sold. it won't show up in this quarter's reports, because it won't close in time, but it will be included in the data for the next quarter's reports.

manhattanking, very nicely put.

"Hardest hit on the income tax collection front was New York, where revenues were off 48.9 percent compared with the last fiscal year." This from today's NYT article. Much of that has to be wall street bonuses and layoffs. That is a staggering figure, breaking all prior records and i think a true reflection of the state of the local economy. those decreased tax collections will be made up by increased taxes and government layoffs, both exacerbating the problem. another negative for RE.

ManhattanKing, no need for sarcasm (or jealousy), but i am man enough to admit when I am wrong. So, there it is, I admit I many not know everything and am always learning.

AR - Sorry for the delay. I had a bit of a computer meltdown and had to mix in a little work as well. The healthcare industry in the one I worry the least about. People get sick and as the boomers age they will need more and more assistance. Plus, I have high hopes (puts fingers in ears to drown out the hisses) for this administration to improve the healthcare system that we have.

Time will tell of course, but to me, this jobs report was about as positive as you could hope for given the current mess.

i think the administration is committed, absolutely, to health care reform. without it the masses will begin to writhe. and at that time i anticipate health care to once again expand, not, hopefully, in terms of dollars spent, but rather in terms of patients treated.

but i don't think it can be overemphasized how many people currently have no health insurance. this trend of which i speak is a short term one, but may skew numbers in the next couple of months.

a great health care reform could also be part of improving USA competitiveness and improve households finances (most households bankruptcies were medical bill related before the mtg crisis at least).

it will also help a lot towards the entitlement tsunami and the burden of pensions for the private sector. it'd be a great allocation of resources (congress, obama and the like) to try to get it right.

admin, i agree.

found this on Naked Capitalism, the recent Duke CFO survey. take a look at the discussion of the employment situation going forward. it's in the press release section.

http://www.cfosurvey.org/

admin - nice point on the household finances/medical emergencies. I read that recently too, and was surprised at first, but it all does make sense.

what was so surprising to me was that most of those driven into bankruptcy by illness started out employed and with health insurance. they lost their employment due to illness, and thus their insurance. something's really wrong with that picture.

"Housing prices might still stay soft but with higher rates outpacing the decline, i might get priced out."

This is why you should not time markets. Nobody is going to call you and tell you when the absolute best tiem to buy is. With rates increasing (although historically low), the best time to buy sems to have been last month. Plus, I wonder how sellers are reacting to all of the "green shoots." My guess is that they are now less inclined to lwoer prices than before on the belief that the bototm is enar.

' So, there it is, I admit I may not know everything and am always learning.'

A sit member worthy of praise!

Trying to learn something every day......my brother.

"steveF, just out of curiosity, what do you do for a living? Reason I ask, is b/c if it is anything above and beyond finger painting or tying shoes for random people on the street I would be surprised. You truly do think like a child, if for no other reason, you think that everyone that goes against your drivel is a bear. I go against you (b/c you're an uninformed jersey piece of trash) b/c I am a bear when the market is bearish and a bull when it is bullish, but this market is no where near positive, nor is the news something to celebrate. If you have bothered to read anything on your own (besides this site) you would have seen that the retail sector is drowning and 1 in 10 people are unemployed. "

ROTFL.

I teach and you guyz learn... m'okay.. m'okay.... :)

Seriously, in what paralel world do asset prices go up when people's ability to afford them go down? All else equal, higher rates will lead to lower prices so if you think rates are going to continue going up, now would be the exact wrong time to buy since prices have yet to adjust to them. You are locking in a higher price.

If you believe on the other hand, that rates will go down, money will be dropped from the sky or the Irish carpenters are coming back in force, well then maybe you should buy now...

> Seriously, in what paralel world do asset prices go up when people's ability to afford them go down?

In the world where RE only goes up and people are morons.

Its called 2001-2006.

falcogold1, LOL. Hey man, I have only been on this earth 30 years and there is still an ocean of stuff I can learn about my industry. Pardon the cliche, but knowledge is power

the same world that had YHOO trading at 600 and dr. koop.com at 300. howd that work out? lol

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SilahsXdsQI/AAAAAAAAFdI/GHwuyesifvw/s1600-h/EmployPopMay2009.jpg

as calculatedrisk explains, numbers elevated over time due to women entering the work force.

> the same world that had YHOO trading at 600 and dr. koop.com at 300. howd that work out? lol

Nice.

"All else equal, higher rates will lead to lower prices"
I agree in theory that higher rates should put pressure on prices, but does anyone have any historical data showing this occuring?

Rates went up from 2003 to 2007. Housing went up with it.

"Rates went up from 2003 to 2007. Housing went up with it. "

Why are people so frickin STUPID! This was what was said:

"All else equal, higher rates will lead to lower prices"

ALL ELSE EQUAL. In fact, if rates had declined from 2003 to 2007 even further, housing prices would have gone up more.

"Seriously, in what paralel world do asset prices go up when people's ability to afford them go down?"

Got oil?

InFamous... me thinkz the alphabet soup of mortgage products just about took off like a rocket, just as soon as the 10bps increase in mortgage should've killed this thing.... 10yr ninja, 9 ninja, double down with back flip ninja, double pump neg. second option of 3rd house ninja, for your 12th home ninja... the fact Alpo here owns 2 homes should give you pause (on a realtor salary?)

alpine292... oil has no easy substitute... ding! try again... oh for RE that would be renting.... smells like a home, furnished like a home, school zoned like a home, even a nice clean toilet like a home....

oh I almost forgot... can you spell your name ninja?

"historical data showing this occuring?"

Sorry, the guy asked for it.

"historical data showing this occuring?"

Sorry, the guy asked for it.

"All else equal, higher rates will lead to lower prices"

Logic says that, but housing did move up along with rates from 2003 to 2007. Is that not true?

This is from a comment i found from the following article on econobrowser:

http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/06/james_pethokouk.html

the commenter attributes it to David Rosenber, of former ML analyst fame, but i haven't been able to find the original source yet. so, with some misgivings, i quote:

We have to put the data into perspective. Before the Lehman collapse, when equities were in a moderate bear market and bonds in a moderate bull market, the worst nonfarm payroll result we saw was -175,000. We don’t seem to recall too many pundits rejoicing over employment declines at that time, which were basically half of what was just posted in May. Moreover, the worst nonfarm payroll number in the 2001 recession — right after 9-11 — was -325,000; and before that, at the depths of the 1990-91 recession, the worst report showed a -306,000 print. So basically, what we saw today was a number consistent with a deep recession — just not quite as deep as the near-6% at an annual rate contraction we saw in the first quarter. It is difficult to rejoice over an employment data that is consistent with real GDP still declining anywhere from a 2% to 4% at an annual rate. Now here we are, close to nine months after the Lehman collapse, and we are still printing employment numbers that are double what they were before pre-Lehman. That is the bigger picture.

Moreover, the internals of today’s report, in a word, were awful. Not only are businesses still cutting jobs but they are also reducing the hours that their employees are working; the private workweek hit a new record low of 33.1 hours (from 33.2 hours in April). So, total labour input was much weaker than the headline payroll suggests and this is vividly illustrated in the aggregate-hours worked index, which fell 0.7% MoM and something ‘green shoot’ advocates will not like discuss since this was actually worse than the 0.3% MoM drop in April; this takes the three-month trend to a -8.6% annual rate. Think about that for a moment because what goes into GDP is total hours worked and productivity — so the latter better continue to hang in there or else we are going to be seeing some nasty output data going forward that may well take Mr. Market by surprise. Put another way, if companies had held hours worked constant in May instead of cutting them, to achieve the total labour input they achieved last month would have required — get this — a 927,000 payroll cut. ‘Green shoot’ indeed.

InFamous: Is your point that economic conditions in 2003 and 2007 were in fact equal and that the 0.5% higher interest rate accounted for the rise in house prices?

alpine: Let me just give you a few references on factors that affect the price of oil: dollar depreciation, cartels, global growth of demand. To give you the benefit of the doubt, I guess you may be trying to draw a connection between speculation in both markets, which certainly affects both. But I would submit that the days of speculation in NY real estate will be gone for some time, despite the best efforts of SteveF and others to reignite it with fears of missing the bottom.

SF Fed discusses the likelihood of the jobless recovery.

http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2009/el2009-18.html

"What does all this mean for the course of the labor market? We combine data on involuntary part-time workers with the standard unemployment rate to arrive at an alternative measure of labor underutilization. We plot this measure in Figure 3, which shows that the labor market has considerably more slack than the official unemployment rate indicates. The figure extends this labor underutilization measure using the Blue Chip consensus forecast for the unemployment rate as a benchmark and then adding a share of involuntary part-time workers based on the proportion of workers in that category to the unemployed during the current recession. This projection indicates that the level of labor market slack would be higher by the end of 2009 than experienced at any other time in the post-World War II period, implying a longer and slower recovery path for the unemployment rate. This suggests that, more than in previous recessions, when the economy rebounds, employers will tap into their existing workforces rather than hire new workers. This could substantially slow the recovery of the outflow rate and put upward pressure on future unemployment rates."

"as calculatedrisk explains, numbers elevated over time due to women entering the work force."

AR, where do you see women participation in the labor force going forward? did it just peaked?

It was higher than now under Clinton, but also higher than in any other industrialized society, so personally no I think that phenomenon has run its course.

jason, i was just pointing out why the chart showed such huge gains in employment participation percentages over time. admin, interesting question. historically i believe it's true that women participate less when employment opportunities are limited. i'd say that female participation would tend to increase still, given the changes in enrollment in higher education, but this reduction in employment opportunities seems unusual in that it is extremely dispersed among areas and levels of employment. It would be interesting to look at which jobs have been outsourced (i.e., customer reps), which can expect further increases (tech, engineering, construction for infrastructure), which may be more likely to swing toward women (medicine perhaps), and which may be more targeted in the future by men (education). Also, in an area like education, in the near term at least I think it's inevitable that we'll see the number of teachers decline and class sizes increase, thereby reducing employment opportunities.

I think, at least in the near term, labor force participation by many groups just peaked.

wage deflation is accelerating.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124450717216996329.html

"...Pay cuts are likely to spread further until unemployment stops rising and workers' position strengthens. The jobless peak isn't expected until 2010, meaning layoffs will be the norm for at least another year..."

As I say, the bulls are at least 6 months too early. No way home prices in Manhattan will rebound before 2010.

http://streeteasy.com/talk/discussion/10534-great-link-to-unemployment-info

where is chunderboy now? Anyone following his advice lost a great deal of money.