Stock Market looking ill

The Euro Crisis will be resolved by either southern countries leaving the Euro, or the Euro being depreciated enough against the dollar to get eveyone interested in taking a Greek vacation(which will make Gold a fantastic investment)

"Sex, you should definitely by more stock then, right now. On your credit card."

It's easy to be smug when people are selling. A lot of people were mighty smug back in early to mid- 2009 when I was buying cheap stocks. Go back and look at the posts in this thread from 2 years ago.

But that's how it always is - Buffett always right, the crowd always wrong - when it gets proven (as it will) yet again, the smug folks will be scratching their heads trying to figure out why they were wrong (again). And I'll be smiling. GL buddy.

Riversider - usually when everyone agrees that X is a great asset (e.g., GOLD), that's when X peaks in value. I buy assets that nobody wants (b/c people can't see the value there) - that's how you buy low (again, be greedy when people are fearful).

...and, for the record, Cramer is currently touting gold and saying Buffett is wrong about gold. Who do you think you should side with - Cramer or Buffett? I know who I would put my money on.

BSex, curious if you're buying on this dip?

I sold something that had gone up recently (a US company) and put the proceeds into one of the Euro banks. I'm putting my $$$ where my mouth is.

S&P 500 - it goes up over time...

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGSPC&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Yawn. What's up with all this ruckus? Let me look at the dji, hey wtf happened at 11am? Hahhhaaaaaaa. Go double long with a side of leverage. Flmaozzzzz.

Yea, buy on the dips. 2009 was a dip in nyc re. Hope y'all bought then. Jump on or be priced out forever. Never go against all that is holy in finance. Suck buffett's dick every chance you get and feed the borkers 6%, lest they stop talking to you. Flmaozzzzz

W67th chimes in - the guy who missed the 2009-2010 mega-rally b/c he was waiting for the "second leg down". Heh.

Flmaozzzzz. You think I missed it? No no. Unlike a day trader I'm pretty fully vested in my banking 401k days and my wife is in a 403b, plus now I have a sep ira, plus my kids have their $400k/each in college funds, which actually got funded starting in 2009, when they turned 4 and 2. Hehe. Flmaozzzzz. But you see that'll be all good in 14 yrs when my kids needs their funds and I'll only be drawing 3% of my net assets till I drop dead. But then again I'm pretty certain I can pay cash for me nyc re in the next 3 yrs when it goes to $500psf. Believe me cash will once again have room at the table and not some illegal alien that can sign his name on a mortgage from countrywide.

Go double deep equity today azzhole. Go ahead. Buffett says buy when others are running. Go ahead double down. Pull the fking trigger 2 day job plus side jobber day trader. Pull the fking trigger. For tomorrow you will be rich for pushing the 'enter' button.

w67th, have to ask - if your cash ain't in equities, and certainly not in RE, where are you putting it to work?

W67th - your anger speaks volumes about you - you know, there are programs for anger management - you might want to check some out. Cheers.

Remember, price is what you pay, value is what you get. The market is hear to serve you, not to instruct you. Get it?

w67th - didn't you post a while back (maybe last year) that you couldn't buy an apartment for another 3-4 years because you didn't have the cash - all your assets were non-liquid? At some future date you would be able to access equity?

Two years ago W67th said the following (in quotes) - yet now he wants everyone to believe that he's been long equities since then??? So was W67th lying 2 years ago or is W67th lying now?

"but let me tell you one thing that is blatantly clear.... THERE WILL BE ANOTHER LEG DOWN... it may not come in one BIG WALLOP like 08', but it'll be a slow grind for a long time.... they'll write B-School text books in 20 years about the same BS equity mkt that Japan had...."

W67th also said that thousands of people touched his wife, and that his son took a dump in the bathtub while they were bathing.
He also said he was a residential landlord in the past, and during (alanhart close your eyes) that time was involved in litigation with his tenants.
He also owns a Porsche, a yacht, an IWC watch. He can also squat a lot at the gym. He also is required, as are all pets traveling without their owners, to take the freight elevator in his building.
Oh, and he was a TA at Columbia Business School.

Riversider - usually when everyone agrees that X is a great asset (e.g., GOLD), that's when X peaks in value. I buy assets that nobody wants (b/c people can't see the value there) - that's how you buy low (again, be greedy when people are fearful).

--------------------
First everyone does not agree that Gold is a great asset.
Second Equities are hardly an asset nobody wants

. . . . . . .
The entire premise is false.

"First everyone does not agree that Gold is a great asset."

That must explain why it's been bid up to 1550.

"Second Equities are hardly an asset nobody wants"

The equities I buy are. That's the cool thing about equities - there are 1000s to chose from.

Remember, the only way you will ever make money thru gold is by selling it to a greater fool. Gold doesn't produce an income, it will never pay you a dividend, and in fact it costs you to store it. So if you like to rely on the greater fool theory of investing, gold is your choice.

From Wiki:

The greater fool theory (also called survivor investing) is the belief held by one who makes a questionable investment, with the assumption that they will be able to sell it later to "a greater fool"; in other words, buying something not because you believe that it is worth the price, but rather because you believe that you will be able to sell it to someone else at an even higher price.[1]

It is similar in concept to the Keynesian beauty contest principle of stock investing.

Some consider it a valid method of making money in the stock market, particularly momentum investors; however, fundamental investors believe that market participants eventually realize that the price level is too outrageous (too high or too low) and the speculative bubble pops. The greater fool theory relies on market optimism and market momentum concerning a particular stock, an industry, or the market as a whole.

The opposite of the greater fool theory is value investing, or contrarian investing, which tries to discount, or even actively go against, the prevailing market psychology. Value investors such as Warren Buffett believe that it is corporate profits which are the normal returns from stock investments and any higher return is possible only due to the greater fool theory.

And yet you have someone like Robert Schiller with his CAPE ratio who has shown buying stocks when they are trading at a ratio of above 16 has currently been a very bad strategy(Currently we are at 23.35. We were at 40 in the tech bubble, around 30 on Black Tuesday. Of course the ratio was very cheap back in 1980 and that proved to be a great buy signal

http://www.multpl.com/

Flamoz. Do you day trade w/ your 401K plan that you can't withdraw till 65? I've got 25 yrs... those assets are for my kids and wife. Likewise, a trust fund for a 4 yo should and never be in a money market fund.

And finally, I think of my net worth in the following terms (life cycle income theory), at this point of my life:
80% of my net worth will be derived from education and "labor." For each year of my life, 3 to 4% more of my income will come from "passive" income..... so by the time I hit 60, it'll be 80% passive and 20% active. So my wife and I will do charity work 1 day of the week.

BUT ph41 thinks being a SO for a lawyer is "job" enough and you Sexposer, just STFU and push the "enter" button. BUY on every dip.

And for all the other RE BUBBLERS and Borkers, just STFU and buy some NYC RE.

One final thing, 1/5 of all income in the US last year was transfer money from the Fed/State, almost entirely from the 99 week extension of unemployment bennies. Almost ALL will expire by December 2011. Conforming mortgages will ladder down from Oct 1..... I WONDER WHERE NYC RE will go?

Wow, another brilliant stock market insight.
With the baby boomers aging and heading toward retirement it's a slam dunk this demographic will be net sellers of stock and an important contributor to declines. A very good reason why the closer you are to retirement the less your equity holdings should be.

Is Robert Schiller a professional investor? Is he smarter than Buffett when it comes to this stuff? Did he make billions buying when people are fearful and selling when people are greedy? I rest my case.

"Sexposer, just STFU and push the "enter" button"

Trust me, I've pushed the "buy" button numerous times, while most people were curled up in the fetal position scared stiff. It takes balls to buy when everybody is yelling "SELL!!! GET OUT!!!!!" - but that's how you buy low.

Most people will never get it - I guess you are one of those that don't, w67th.

w67th, in all seriousness, you seem to be doing great for yourself. I could use a mentor - would you be willing to help out a fellow Columbia grad?

Warren Buffet is a successful coin flipper. The law of averages can be used to explain his success.
if 1,100,00 flip a coin there will be one who is able to pick heads one more successive time than the
rest. The theory seems to be here, that Warren Buffeet is a successful investor, He buys and hold(
which is not really true) so therefore if you adopt a similar strategy you'll have similar returns which
of course ignores the fact that there are many long term value investors which have much worse returns.

w67thstreet":BUT ph41 thinks being a SO for a lawyer is "job" enough".
What the hell does that mean?

And you didn't respond to my question - meaning you don't have the cash to buy your dream apartment now, even if it were at your delusional/dream state $500 psf.

If you had bought the s&p 500 Dec of 1999 and reinvested the dividends into additional s&p shares the annual equivalent rate of return would be less than 1%(without reinvestment the return is negative). We're talking close to 12 years which is fairly long term for most of us. The take-away is that stock market returns are dependent on earnings and Price paid. If you paid too much you lose money. Interestingly enough a Condo in Manhattan during that same time period did far better.

"Warren Buffet is a successful coin flipper. The law of averages can be used to explain his success."

Riversider - thanks for playing - I'm afraid you just crapped out. Better luck next time.

HIT "enter" hit "enter" bf the mkt closes.....ph41 stfu and buy some more nyc RE hurry hurry

The fictional village of Graham-and-Doddsville was introduced by Warren Buffett in 1984. The edited transcript of a talk given by Buffett at Columbia University is included in the Appendix of a special edition of The Intelligent Investor titled "The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville." Buffett presents an analogy of a national coin-flipping contest whereby everyone in America wagers one dollar on their ability to call a coin flip. The following is only a summary based on the version presented in the book but it includes current population numbers and additional commentary. Text in quotes are directly from the Appendix of The Intelligent Investor.

"I would like you to imagine a national coin-flipping contest." Let's imagine all 268 million people in the United States are asked to wager one dollar on their ability to call the flip of a coin. "If they call correctly, they win a dollar from those who called wrong." After each flip the losers drop out, and on the subsequent flip the stakes multiply. Each person has a 50-50 chance of calling each flip and approximately half of the people will lose and drop out each round. After ten flips there would be approximately 260,000 people that had successfully called ten consecutive coin flips. After 20 flips, based purely on chance, there would be approximately 250 people that had called 20 consecutive coin flips - a seemingly miraculous feat.

The surviving callers would have over one million dollars each at that point. Press coverage and inquiries about their coin calling ability would increase with each successive flip. Several callers might even attempt to profit from their good fortune by writing books on coin calling, setting up 900 phone lines, or by sending mass mailings or spam Email solicitations offering to share their secrets with intrigued members of the public.

As with winners of the lottery, its obvious that those remaining would have been blessed with good luck. But what if a large percentage of remaining coin flippers had a common characteristic or trait. What if a disproportionate number had came from one town or had been educated by one "patriarch." Would this signify that more than luck was involved in calling coin flips?

It is at this point when its intriguing to compare the coin flippers to investors. There are literally millions of investors and stock pickers trying to beat the stock market. Clearly, based on the laws of probability, many will be successful in significantly outperforming the market even over long periods of time. The question is: are successful stock pickers effectively equivalent to lucky coin callers or are there some common characteristics, styles or traits among the outperformers that signify that more than just luck is involved? It is in this context that Buffett introduced the fictional land of Graham-and-Doddsville.

ph41, I've got way way way better things to do w/ my cash than buy a deleveraging POS or helping out some about to COLLECT social security who believes not only do they "earn" and income but that should be supplemented by housesitting in NYC.

OK, I give up. No more posts on here for me for the remainder of 2011 & 1st half of 2012. I'll check back in 1 year. GLTA.

w67th, no dice?

Bsexposer... you think I regret not going ballz deep in equities in 2009? Fk, I got a good story for ya. ALMOST ALL THE PPL at the yacht club that OWN HUGE BOATS made it by starting and owning businesses. Almost ZERO made it day trading. MOST don't give a shit about their NYC RE ..... it's an "EXPENSE" not an "investment." I'm not trying to make MONEY on my NYC 3bdrm, I'm trying to LOWER MY EXPENSE.

Right W67th - you buy "yachts" (LMFAO), watches and cars, which depreciate WAY faster than real estate.
So you don't have the cash, right? Love how you sidestepped the question.
Still living in your crappy condo rental?

"Is Robert Schiller a professional investor? Is he smarter than Buffett when it comes to this stuff? Did he make billions buying when people are fearful and selling when people are greedy? I rest my case."

Shiller made the call to buy - in the NYTimes - with the dow a few days away from the bottom... also called the housing decline... not to mention pretty much defined the way to track it.

My guess is his portfolio looks pretty darn good.

Not to mention working with his buddy Swensen, one of the most successful institutional investors of our time (who pretty much created the modern endowment investment model).

> "Be greedy when people are fearful..."
> Just saying...Buffett was right in 2008/9...he's still right...GLTA.

Of course, greedy and fearful are not specific measures... and Buffett was actually way premature from my recollection....

at this point Berkshire is so large it's basically an index mutual fund.

By the way today was the risk off trade.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-11/asian-stocks-fall-euro-drops-australian-bond-risk-jumps-on-europe-crisis.html
Stocks sank the most since March while Spanish 10-year bond yields topped 6 percent for the first time since 1997 amid concern Europe’s debt crisis will spread. The euro tumbled, while U.S. Treasuries rallied.

What's with the lingo lately - risk on, risk off? Does it make people feel like Mr. Miyagi instead of just saying that people were selling, people were buying?

goes to correlation. all risk assets are trading the same. You might as well be buying Ausie dollars.

Risk asset sounds cool and makes me want to look into inverse non-risk assets or converse risk liabilities.

Or is it converse and inverse?
So confusing.

Velda!! get me that number for the Columbia County Ice Box and Ice Pick repair man. I need the new ice pick on tomorrow's Wells Fargo Wagon otherwise we won't be able to make cool drinks for our guests up here in Columbia County.

Riversider: "Warren Buffet is a successful coin flipper. The law of averages can be used to explain his success."

So I read this and wondered what the law of averages was exactly. Maybe my stats knowledge is spotty, let me get some education via Wikipedia. Here are the first two sentences:

"The law of averages is a lay term used to express a belief that outcomes of a random event will "even out" within a small sample. As invoked in everyday life, the "law" usually reflects bad statistics or wishful thinking rather than any mathematical principle."

Back to stocks. I'm sure there's more than a few people who believe they were amazing stock pickers as the market rallied from 2008 lows ignoring that the market rally was the result of Fed policy. Take away Fed stimulus and the market goes down.

if if if.

stevejhx said that he wouldn't have lost money if the government didn't let Lehman fail. If there was no QE2. If if if, if what you were wrong about you were in fact correct about, then you would have made money.

"Back to stocks. I'm sure there's more than a few people who believe they were amazing stock pickers as the market rallied from 2008 lows ignoring that the market rally was the result of Fed policy. Take away Fed stimulus and the market goes down."

Of course... but the fact that they were *in* equities as a category proved smart, regardless of the specific picks.

Thanks for the Warren Buffet story, Riversider.

Alas, there is a lot of truth to it!

Stock Market is definitely ill. The last dozen or so years was a waste of time.

Everything is deflating, RS: the natural result of your monetarist, Any Rand policies.

Back to retesting lows.

stevejhx: except, maybe for gold.

Ten year treasury is under 2% Throw CAPM in the trash. The bond market is telling you things suck. Nobody is even worried about inflation eroding returns. It's all about risk off and NOMINAL capital preservation.

No one is worried about inflation because with 9% unemployment, inflation is highly unlikely.

No model of the economy that has any connection to reality suggests that prices and wages will suddenly start to rise when people and capital are sitting idle, the private sector can't make profits because it has no customers (because it isn't paying them enough), and the public sector is crippled by an ideology that proclaims that doing anything productive is forbidden.

I heard someone on cnbc say that they are flattening the yield curve to make risky assets look more attractive. given Bernankes background its not surprising that they would be thinking they could lower discount rates and make projects look more attractive hence getting corporations to spend more.. I dont know..I just know it hasnt worked.I agree that regulations from washington have caused lot of problems for business.

"No one is worried about inflation because with 9% unemployment, inflation is highly unlikely."

Wrong. It's call "stagflation," and happens a lot. Presently, financial assets are being bought up with excess liquidity, raising prices without actually being affected by demand for the underlying assets.

My favorite chart, Spot Corn:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CN/M

Overlay any other chart - oil stocks, etc. - and it looks more or less the same. Prices are being driven up just like 2008, by speculation. That, or somebody starting making a lot of tortillas.

"No model of the economy that has any connection to reality suggests that prices and wages will suddenly start to rise when people and capital are sitting idle."

See discussion of stagflation, above. Not only can it happen, it does and has.

"the public sector is crippled by an ideology that proclaims that doing anything productive is forbidden. "

Just crap.

"stevejhx: except, maybe for gold."

For the time being, that may be true.

Government is in a hole. Because the government is not forcing banks to face reality(mark to market of loan) they have not had to mark down the bad debt and thus have no strong incentive to agree to loan modifications (the bad loans are held at cost), so then we are faced with plan B which is for the Fed to engineer inflation which has the effect of transferring wealth from savers to debtors, except plan b punishes prudent savers more than banks which have ways of mitigating inflation risk. Plan B also has the effect of forcing savers to cut back and conserve capital even more.

"mark to market of loan"

Exactly what methodology would you employ to have a bank do that, Ye of MBS-Hedge Faith? The whole problem with your MBS-Hedge is that predicting the future performance of residential mortgages is almost impossible, and reassessing every loan every time a property sold is a material impossibility. There are specific rules for determining how to classify a loan based on its actual performance; little else can be done.

Government is in a hole, but not for the reasons you stated. Government is in a hole thanks to the disaster that was George II's tax cuts, unfunded wars, unfunded Medicare prescription drug benefit, and whole deregulation and massive leveraging of the 90's.

Unfortunately, today's Republicans think that more of the same is what will get us out of this mess. It won't.

BAC is now below Buffet's $7.17 strike price. $6.84 now

Eddie Wilson...?! Eddie Wilson...?!

Enlightening article:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-headed-below-10000-as-cyclical-bear-begins-2011-09-06

RS - Buffett doesn't care about the stock price: he's getting a whopping 6% interest rate.

Ah, poor Steve. You're supposed to short HIGH.

That you shorted at 10,300 is just a little sad...

Not really, Ediot Wilson, but nice try.

FYI for stock market tips: You're not supposed to "put your profit back to work" right before the Dow crashes 2000 points - AFTER you've incurred your (alleged) capital gains, and then lose it all!

I've made money this year. Not as much as I would have liked, but not doing all that badly, and I remain almost entirely in KING CASH.

You made that same mistake as that guy in the commercial who buys a painting at an auction and then turns around and tries to sell it again: selling, incurring tax, then buying back what you just sold, and losing your shirt on it.

HAHAHAHAHA!

Poor, poor Steve... all here for anyone too see. Your shorts at 10k are STILL losing you $$$..

I'm sorry you lost your shirt (again), but lying won't change that.

> 've made money this year.

Yes, we know... but only when you "accidentally" add 100% to your returns.

Whoops!

> I remain almost entirely in KING CASH.

Except for all those busted shorts. Whoops.

BTW, watching the Dow go from 6500 to over 10k while you were "KING CASH" also sounds pretty stupid...

"watching the Dow go from 6500 to over 10k while you were "KING CASH" also sounds pretty stupid..."

It would be pretty stupid, except I went long stocks in February 2009, a month before the bottom, and rode them all the way up to 11,500.

And - to your chagrin - my shorts made me money, because unlike you I would never realize a profit and then turn right back around and buy the exact same instrument all over again, ESPECIALLY the day before the Dow starts a 2,000 point crash.

I have a few shorts left that haven't made money, but the ones I sold in the panic after the debt downgrade made me plenty, thank you very much. More coming, too, whereas all of your alleged profit has been completely wiped out, AFTER you incurred tax on it.

HAHAHAHAHA!

"It would be pretty stupid, except I went long stocks in February 2009, a month before the bottom, and rode them all the way up to 11,500."

suuuure you did. Except you said the opposite, and you're on record saying you went in big on the shorts at 10k..

whoops!

> but the ones I sold in the panic after the debt downgrade made me plenty,

Only in steve's backward mind can you get back less than you paid and make money.

But, hey, Steve, whatever stories you need to spin to make yourself feel better.

I'm not the first, and I won't be the last, to point out the dumb, dumb calls you've made.

I LOVE IT! When Steve made his big shorts call..

"The Dow closed today at 10,230, not 10,150"

WHOOPS!

Ok we get it, Stevejhx is smarter than somewhereelse, and somewhereelse is smarter than Stevejhx.

Next topic.

Ediot Wilson, I didn't short the entire market when I shorted - I SHORTED BANKS and MID-CAP stocks.

Fool.

Both of which I made money on. Not vast amounts - about 10%.

What I'm currently short on is real-estate and emerging markets.

"Except you said the opposite."

No, actually, I didn't.

So - HOW'S REINVESTING YOUR NONEXISTENT "PROFIT" working out for you, the day before the Dow falls 2,000 points?

The difference between you and me, Ediot Wilson, is that you will have to pay capital gains on a gain that you've ENTIRELY LOST, whereas I never realized any of my paper losses, and just held them till they made a profit. And the few that I have left, I will continue to hold till they're in the black.

Not too far away, actually....

Sure, Steve, make up some more investments you "made" 14 months later. You were long on the stock market when you were screaming to get out... sure.

Bsexposer called you on your trades a few months back, and you came back with... nothing.

Keep lying, Steve. At least you haven't lost your shirt in your fantasy world.

"No, actually, I didn't."

Sorry, you did.

This isn't the first time you lied and contradicted yourself. Saying you called up, when you called down. Saying you called down, when you called up. Saying you were out of China, when your own words had you in (oh, wait... you sold and rebought... Suuure).

Steve, KEEP GOING.

You only get funnier each time!

And keep telling me what I bought! That's funny, too.

> Fool.

Being called a fool by either Steve is about as big a complement as one can get!

Question to the bulls & bears
Do you look at price earnings yield vs treasury yield as a screaming buy opportunity or look at record high bond prices and conclude market is predicting a very bad recession?

wow, and i thought congress was bad.

what is this place, the teeny weeny club?

Oh, Ediot Wilson - sorry you took your cap gains hit then reinvested in the exact same product just as it was collapsing: you yourself announced it, not me!

Poor old SSO ain't doing so well of late, is it? Especially when you sold at $56, bought it back at $52, and watched it fall to $37.

Dems lotsa cap gains on a huge loss, Ediot!

>Ediot Wilson

That's a creative one actually.

I think people are very optimistic if they expect the jobs creation machine to start cranking up anytime soon. I think the US is looking more like Japan. The jobs are now going to China, but in the not too distant future, I predict that China will be asking where its jobs are going as Vietnam, Bangladesh and some of the African countries with very competitive exchange rates and next to nothing wages attract investment.

steve and somewhereelse, schoolyard today 3pm. We will finish this once and for all. Now its getting late....off to school for the both of you and don't forget your milk money. Have a nice day kids.

Poor, poor Steve. Lying about your own trades wasn't enough, now you have to make up mine. I love it...

You are hillarious though, keep it up. At least I can laught a bit at your misery.

And, you are the best reverse indicator of all time!

> what is this place, the teeny weeny club?

Nah, Steve is just like a RE bull who took a bath.... needs to lash out at someone for all his losses...

Havent seen any bullish stock market threads, Are the bulls seeing the light? Market went down even after today's Fed announcement.

Don't ask me - cash is king!

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44608524

Someone must be somewhere else.

well, stox are testing the low of our lil 6 week flag--i will buy again teensy here..if we bust the low of the flag, settle the week below, could get very ugly

somewhere be elsewhere

cash is king but spread it around...>250K at any given bank could prove to be worrisome, yet again...

Stock Market doesn't seem to like Bernanke's plan. Time for a new Fed

WB, I expect that it will bounce up and down around the low, perhaps for a few weeks. The 6-week bear flag did its duty - there'll be some calling it a tested triple-bottom, but it ain't.

The stock market is reacting perfectly - increasing short-term interest rates will strengthen the dollar, lower commodity costs, taking the stock market with it. The disaster that was QE2 has to be undone - there is an extraordinarily good case to be made that increasing food and fuel prices, at a time of high unemployment, is what caused the economy to collapse.

Unemployment is a lagging indicator, as is inflation. FedEx's lowering guidance is very significant. A stronger dollar will eat into corporate profits, artificially boosted through currency conversions.

I never keep more than $100k in any particular bank.

Oh, RS: it's not the Fed's job to prop up the stock market.

The relentless climb of stocks and commodities took 8 months, from September of last year till April of this year, to reach their peak. It should take another 8 months, more or less, to correct, from August, when the correction began. Bringing us back to about March of next year.

You can see a mini head-and-shoulders in the bear flag, which if confirmed would bring the S&P down to 1000 when completed.

Leading economic indicators are up, but only because the money supply is up - and that's what's causing the problem. Unemployment claims went down more than expected, but only because last week's were revised upward.

"It should take another 8 months, more or less, to correct, from August, when the correction began."

stocks always fall way faster than they rise..i doubt it will take that long.

> Don't ask me - cash is king

Except for all of steveF's shorts, which are still underwater...

Urban, I would beg to differ.
That thinking is based on big drops during a cyclical bull market. In a true bear market, one that we've nto really had for some time, that thinking falls apart. In my opinion the market's are in for a protracted decline. I think we are in a cyclcal bear market, so any advances even if they last for a few weeks or months won't hold and we go back down again. On a multi-decade basis we're still expensive in a period of consumer and bank deleveraging going on world wide.

Stock market is more fairly valued at s&p 950 for a long term perspective, but have to believe we could easily go below that.

UD is right - stocks do fall faster than they rise - and they tend to fall more often than they rise, even though, in the long-term, they tend to rise more than they fall! But the completion cycle is usually (though not always) uniform. There will be more ups, more downs, and more consolidation periods in this next phase.

How today closes will be interesting - stocks are still way down after the continent closed, though London is still open. Usually there's a counter-trend after all of Europe closes; we'll see.

I don't think this cycle will be over until Greece defaults - which it must. Interesting today is how the price of oil has fallen; after Europe, oil & commodities are the key to an economic recovery. In 2008-2009 we suffered a huge deflation of a bubble; why the Fed thought it was a good idea to reinflate that bubble is beyond me. But they did.

Any bets on emergency funding for BAC?

The S&P 500 has a dividend yield of 2.25% While the ten year and thirty year treasury yield 1.92% and 2.861% respectively. And yet the bond guys are glad to lock in. What do they know that the stock guys don't?

And the stock market is definitely looking ill

A little less ill today.

But the yield factor definitely got me, too...

Anyone read the first page of this thread?

MY GOSH WAS I SPOT ON OR WHAT!!!!

:)

*pat myself in the back*
*pat*
*pat*
*pat*

Market has huge downside. The P.E. argument is illusory because the "e" is poised to fall. Forward operating earnings is a joke measure and U.S. business profitability is not sustainable. Add to that slowing economies around the world which hurt our exports.
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BOSTON – U.S. companies are enjoying the highest profitability in more than 40 years, and some of the best-known stock pickers are divided over how long that will last.

“The implication for the stock market is ugly because it means earnings are unsustainably high,” Grantham’s colleague, Ben Inker, GMO’s director of asset allocation, said in a telephone interview. GMO, an investment manager that oversees $93 billion, puts the fair value of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index at between 950 and 1,000, compared with the 1,158.67 level at which it closed Thanksgiving week.

U.S. companies’ ability to squeeze more profit from each dollar of sales is pushing earnings higher, even as the economy has grown at a below-average clip since the recession ended in June 2009. Grantham, who called corporate profits “freakishly high” in an August commentary, sees wide margins as an aberration

Dennis Bryan is skeptical that the trends that have supported margins can continue. Bryan is co-portfolio manager of the $1.2 billion FPA Capital Fund, the top-performing diversified U.S. stock fund over the past 25 years, according to Chicago-based Morningstar. The fund gained 14 percent annually in the period ended Sept. 30, Morningstar data show.

Firms may be reaching their limit in wringing out costs, after two years of rising margins, Bryan said in a telephone interview from Los Angeles.

“Will companies be able to keep tightening their belts by cutting millions more Americans out of the workforce?” he said.

When margins have peaked in the past, they have typically fallen over the following five years, Bryan told investors in his third-quarter newsletter.

“We expect a lot of profit disappointments coming our way,” he wrote.

Grantham also believes in mean reversion, the notion that most measures drop back to their historical norms over time.

“Lower margins are the great threat to market performance,” he wrote in the August newsletter. Grantham is known for his bearish investment outlook and for his successful record in identifying stock-market bubbles.

http://www.journalgazette.net/article/20111204/BIZ13/312049961/1031/BIZ

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Earnings season is just over a month away, but the early signals are not comforting.

Companies cutting forecasts outpace those raising estimates by the greatest ratio in 10 years, and some sectors, such as materials, have seen a dramatic fall in expectations for the soon-to-be ended fourth quarter, according to Thomson Reuters data.

It is a stark reminder that even as U.S. economic data has improved in recent weeks, the euro zone debt crisis and concerns about slowing growth in China still cast a long shadow.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-earnings-outlook-may-deteriorating-232908720.html?l=1