Market going bonkers!! If this sticks..DOW THEORY CONFIRMATION!!!

cant fight the tape, ill give you that, but the fundamentals are still terrible. if the commercial real estate disaster turns out to be real then its all gonna end in tears again

Tread lightly...

What if this V ends up a W? Fundamentals have been out of whack for so long -- overshot on the way up -- novisibility on the way down.

Housing sales up, on lowering prices. Profits better than estimates, on expense cutting. A jobless recovery?

Cramer says to BUY! I thought that was a confirming sell indicator...

what if we did get a W and we simply overshoot in March?

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^DJI#chart1:symbol=^dji;range=1y;indicator=volume+macd;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^DJI#chart1:symbol=^dji;range=1y;indicator=volume+macd;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

it is possible, too

Junk bonds didn't.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SHIAX#symbol=SHIAX;range=2y

The market will tank again in a big way at some point over the next 3-6 months - the revenue outlook hasn't improved for anyone and expense reductions can offset revenue declines for only so long. The rate of revenue decline hasn't improved for any company that I'm aware of.

Speaking of empirical (historical) data, if one looks at the market during the Great Depression, which arguably is the most relevant comparison to this downturn - especially when one considers that UNDEREMPLOYMENT is close to 20% - a similar pattern existed.

After the crash of 1932, the market came roaring back (similar to the current rally), but gave back almost all of the gains the following year. When one considers that the largest # of ARM resets will not occur until mid-2010, it's not only possible, but likely that this fragile recovery financed by all of us on this job board may very well collapse.

I also cringe to point out that the market took almost thirty (that's 30) years to reach the market peak established in 1929.

I want a recovery as much as the rest of us, but Wall Street AND Main Street are back to the same old habits that got us into this mess in the first place. Combine that with 20% underemployment, and it's a recipe for disaster.

Sorry to be doom and gloom, but hope, while a temporary self-fulfilling prophecy - eventually needs to be solidified with actual facts. The current rally is based on profits that are slightly beating ridiculously lowered estimates. Revenues, on the other hand, continue to come in light. Translation: "Efficiencies", which really means layoffs and hourly reductions for workers. The other "positive" news is that initial claims were ONLY 554k and continuing claims haven't budged?? Someone will need to explain to me how that's good news...lagging or not.

So may be this is "jobless recovery"?? I have a little anecdote for that:

Henry Ford toured his assembly line plant one day and said to the plant manager, "at this rate, we won't need any people to build the cars", to which the plant manager responded, "then who will buy the cars?"

"Where's my bears at???
Roarrr Roarrrr..."

Why is ericho still so confused?

I LOVE this market. SSOs are 8k and below... see what happens when you bought at those levels. This rocks...

You get that RE doesn't track stocks, right? What ever RE bull screamed for years, and then suddenly forgot.

"SSOs are 8k and below... see what happens when you bought at those levels. This rocks..."

Sorry, thats "AT 8k"... dow levels.

For those who don't know, they've more than doubled.

Jobless recovery is a non sequitur.

The title of this thread is appropriate: Bonkers - unfortunately, that usually leads to reality.

lets remember the technical definition of recovery is that the drop stops...doesn't mean it goes back up.

Where are you getting that definition? Talking political heads, long-only hedge fund managers, or Abbey Cohen who makes 10MM/ year to say the market is going up. As an aside, I don't think she's EVER said things are bad, getting bad, or going to get bad. Lol.

From the official Business Dictionary: Economic Recovery: Phase in an economic cycle where employment and output begin to RISE to their normal levels after a recession or slump.

BTW, recovery means return to health.... we still have 5k points to go.

i think we're agreeing.

begin to rise is another way of saying no longer dropping. whether or not they continue to rise to so called normal levels can't be known until they do. and honestly, what the hell does normal represent at this point?

'begin to RISE to their normal levels after a recession or slump.'

And that's exactly what's happening..we are rising off the lows.
You bears want to see us back to the peak, but things just don't go from A to B overnight.

the stock market is rising ... nothing else.

Q: how would you invest my money, young man?

A: Damn, I'd stick you into any market that moves like "BONKERS"! and hope it doesn't BONKER down when we are long and BONKER up when we are short.

Q: how was sex with that slut last nite?

A: BONKERS!

Q: Did you get into Harvard?

A: BONKERS!

Q: Did ExtendZE work for you?

A: BONKERS!

yeah baby

ohhhhhh.. double yeah baby..... clean up all the trade tkts off the floor... ericho... FLMAO

Spinich pie and greek salad please....

What do you mean your out of feta?

Now I'm realy gonna kick your ass!

Stop with food posts, please. I am on major diet now...