The bottoming process in the housing market is under way,”

Oh alpie - it's true for the country but not for Manhattan. We're two years away from that.

Why on the way down did the rest of the country not matter for Manhattan, but on the way up they did?

Of course this data applies to Manhattan.

"Make no mistake about it, I think the pent up demand for the most part pulled the trigger over the course of the past 12 weeks. This is very clear when looking at 'inventory' and 'contracts signed' trends since early May or so. In fact, the action over the past 2-3 months was more typical of the bubbly 2007 levels; as I'll get into below w/ contracts signed data.

When I look at my internal systems, I see there were about 2,120 contracts signed in the past 8 weeks or so dating back to the last week in May for Manhattan co-ops and condos

Looking back at the past 8 weeks (limited by data I have available to me), 2,120 contracts signed is quite a lot!"

http://urbandigs.com/

Fat bottomed girls you make the rockin' world go round
Fat bottomed girls you make the rockin' world go round

alpie, you're very good at selecting your quotes. You forgot this part:

"But for those that come here for real time conditions, combined with a little gut feeling, my opinion is that the wave of activity has peaked and that we are now slowing down the way it usually does for summers in Manhattan. Take the buy side motivation and general activity down a notch or two from where it was in May and June and adjust expectations on both sides of the market."

I have been amazed by how robust contract signings have been so far in July. I would have thought that most buyers would have headed off to the beach.

It would be nice to revisit in 45/60 days and see how many of those "in contracts" go to;

1)closed
2)back on the market
3)delisted

Yes. I'm watching a number of apartments that I have liked that went to contract. Seems like a very long time between contract and closings. (I want to see what the actual price was.)

topper
That's easy, streeteasy shows "closed" and for backup info there is Acris and Propertyshark.

Manhattan contract prices are down again this quarter... alpo's lips hurt once he reads past the first paragraph.

Seems like price cuts really do move apartments - including in Manhattan.

I still think, though, that we have at least another 20% decline before prices start to level off in Manhattan. Cap rates are still crazy low!

that's not a bottom... that's just azz

damn.. sorry didn't see your post Alanhart... my bad.

Great! Tell every borrowers who have an Alt A mortgage to pop up the Champagne!

topper

I agree. 800 per sq foot average is a comfortable target. It keeps you in the neighborhood. Let's say the worst case scenario and the market falls to 500 per ft (and I really don't see it ever going lower than that)
Cap rates are just not computable today.
Until the rental market is stable you have no cap. That's why banks want 40%plus down.

No plobremo, W67th. It's a highly relevant song because:

Hey listen here,
Now I got mortgages on homes
I got stiffness in my bones
Ain't no beauty queens in this locality. (I tell ya!)
Oh, but I still get my pleasure
Still got my greatest treasure.
Heap big woman you done made a big man of me!
Now get this!

i'm a simple creature, i like pictures. from calculated risk:

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SminsbBBvQI/AAAAAAAAF4o/-2ETNc4YBCk/s1600-h/CREREMay2009.jpg

lookin' pretty.

alanhart, the muses are working overtime.

Roubini calls for another 13-18% drop in house prices due to rising unemployment, sees potential double dip 2010/11.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aoCL0g4Lzg2I

oh, and moody's called for much greater defaults on 2006 and 2007 subprime loans, increasing the percentage predicted to go south for each year by around 7%.

maybe now that the bottom is in the banks will feel happier putting the foreclosed units on the market and the developers can do the same with the new properties that they haven't released. i see only good times ahead.

Thanks for the interesting picture, ar.

Let me offer some current interesting Manhattan perspective from Cushman & Wakefield on Manhattan residential real estate.

Condos. Expect peak to trough drop in prices of 35% to 45%

Rentals. Expect peak to trough drop in rents of 20% to 30%