Bruce Wasserstein sees M&A’s rebound ... in 2013

and i think we'll discover extra terrestrial life in 2023. count on it.

remember that 70% of the revenue in the goldman "miracle" was short term trading profits.

The ongoing business are still pretty much in the crapper.

wasserstein is saying M&A will rebound in 20f'ng13, four years from now. even i thought M&A would recover sooner. out of ashes opportunity arises and all that. vultures going in for the kill, circling over the bleeding carcasses of businesses unable to meet debt obligations. if there's little to no interest in taking over the losers, then things are much worse than i thought.

Things are always much worse than one thinks.

"wasserstein is saying M&A will rebound in 20f'ng13, four years from now"

No, he's saying that M&A will recover TO 2007 levels BY 2013. His forecast is not 3 more years sideways and then a pop back up in 2013, it's growth from here to there. At least that's what the article, our only source for Wasserstein's actual views, says.

Announced M&A volume YTD 2009 is running down about 60% vs. 2007, so a forecast of recovery to previous highs means 150% volume growth (40 back to 100) in four years. That's 25% compounded annual growth.

Agree this is really not news. If volume is measured in $ than it would be hard to get back to 2007 without first getting 2007 valuations again. We will see a lot of activity long before 2013.

While Mr. Wasserstein forecast the eventual return of good times, the present isn’t so terrific. M&A and strategic advisory revenue at Lazard fell 41% in the first half of the year, though a tripling in revenue from working on major bankruptcies such as Lehman Brothers and Tribune Co. helped offset the tumble somewhat. The firm posted net income of $28 million in the second quarter, an 18% decline from the year-earlier period, as revenue fell 20%, to $402 million.

That doesn't really seem like sideways movement to me, and it's not from 2007, it's YoY. He said that investors are beginning to think about their prospects.

Your point being...what? If it's that M&A volume is down in 2009, compared to a pre-Lehman 2008 period, then that's correct. Of course that's not a point, it's just a fact. Again, Wasserstein is not forecasting a bad market in 2009-12 and a big revival "in 20f'ng13, four years from now". He's forecasting growth from here to there, starting circa now with these clients who he sees dusting off the files. He may be blowing smoke, RE broker style, on the market outlook - I have no idea and I'm not making a prediction. But he's not saying M&A is dead until 20f'ng13.

my point being that M&A activity doesn't even necessarily portend a healthy economy. it occurs due to opportunity, which is often created when times are awful. I misread a bit, but your sarcasm seems excessive. i had fully expected M&A activity to be rather robust, if anything.