Why So Much Vitriol?

There's not nearly as much as it seems. It just takes a few dedicated people, who post something, and then respond as is they are someone else, to get things moving. It's also NYC, we just like to argue ;-)

The vitriol is way down at this point, it seems, since they recently instituted the log in. However, you're right, it can get like a school yard with people calling each other names & it is very silly. I think it certainly is possible that the market may cool but there was so much heat these last years that that may be just inevitable, but crash? We'll see, but I don't think so.

"I only started paying attention to RE in the mid 90s, and in the last 10 years, it has been a dizzy ride straight up."

Very, very, very key, the mid 90's were a very transformative point in the city, thats why some older folks, even many of the wealthy have a problem with today's prices, real estate was much cheaper before....... not just in terms of price, but in terms of cost to rent vs cost to buy (and cap rates...... before the mid 90's it was very easy to find investment property at 10% or even 12% cap rates... today the norm is 4,5 or 6%, sometimes less)........ very very very key. The ratios today are completely out of whack.

I am trying to be nice, so please dont interpret my comments as being mean, I do not want to use your age agaisnt you......... but what you said worries me in a way..... younger folks dont even have a memory of what it use to be like before.... they think todays prices are almost normal and that probably grealty impacts their perception and ability to negotiate. There a probably many factors that led to the run up and maybe there is a new level of pricing setting in with no return possible to something near the way it used to be (it could be just way too many people)...... but for some of us who have been following real estate all our lives, today's prices seem oturageous whether you are rich or poor.

#4 I agree with you. I bought my first co-op in manhattan in 1990 - it turned out to be an incredible investment.I feel I got value for my $ and a wonderful place to live for 17 years. I am now in the market with a sustantially larger sum to spend and the pricing just seems "stupid" to me. I am seeing fabulous space well within my spending limits in highly desireable neighborhoods, but when I step back and look at the purchase rationally, the prices do seem ludicrous. But there are enough people in the market that don't have that history and are eagerly paying these prices. They will continue to fuel this market until some other unknown factor throws a wrench in it.

thank you for your balanced assessment #4. It's good to hear someone who has lived through a positive Manhattan real estate for a long time admit that current 'prices do seem ludicrous.'

those other people are europeans and asians. until they get sick of nyc, or the dollar goes on steroids, we'll be living in early 90s tokyo for the foreseeable future.

It seems that Manhattan has turned into a rich man's playground. New York Magazine said recently that there are over a million more people in New York in the last 10 years or so since the city has been cleaned up & made safer & thus a more desirable place to pursue one's dreams. That will also fuel the prices due to increased demand for habitation.

"prices do seem ludicrous".....prices are what the market will bear, if people want to own a beautiful X bedroom apt in a good neighborhood they have to spend at least $X these days, it is what it is. If they don't or they don't want to spend that much, then they won't and they don't have to. Why some of those people feel the need to constantly harp on the vast sums on money that buyers in this market are going to "lose" is beyond me and imo the main reason for the vitriol on the board. There's a lot of people on this board that would rejoice in a market collapse, its like betting the don't pass.

NY is expensive but no more so, in fact less so in some cases, then SF, London, etc.

10, agree. If the real estate market really tanks, that will be bad for the whole economy, including stocks, etc. People will probably lose jobs, etc. It's like indirectly wishing that you might get fired soon.

people are acting like the NYC r.e. market is a leading indicator of something, which it is not. Its a lagging indicator, driven by the strength of financial markets, domestic AND (more importantly) abroad. As they go, so goes NYC r.e. we'll need a severe downturn for anything to destabilize nyc r.e. although I do agree there reaches a plateua point at some level. For me, I can barely afford a 1 BR and I'm an AMT single guy. But then my definition of afford departs from those of others. I just looked at a 400 sq foot 6th floor dump in chinatown where they wanted 450. I might add a price chop from 495. The market has already corrected right before our eyes in that the asking prices have PLUMMETED from their 2006 levels. Sneaky but smart tactic on the part of the r.e. agents. Thats why they claim there's no problem with the market. The problem is that the unrealistic price increases have been squeeezed out of the market. Ergo, buy today, sure you'll hold your value (probably), but gone are the 30% a year price increases (for now). Hedge funds are the way to go with idle cash right now.

#12, "gone are the 30% a year price increases (for now). Hedge funds are the way to go with idle cash right now", I don't disagree that RE probably won't continue to do 30% per annum returns but thats no reason to ignore RE. You do understand that at best hedge funds have done about 11% on average (using what most people believe are distorted #s) and its probably more like 7%, not significantly better and maybe worse than the stock indexs over time.

Sure Blackstone PE fund has made 20+ % over time but if you can get your money in that fund, you don't need to be worrying about the prices of RE.

OP here... thank you for the more thoughtful discussion points!

Sigh, and just when I was thinking I was getting old! 8-) I suppose at 37 I have just enough experience to get me in trouble. I thought the RE market would slow/regress after 9/11, and was shocked when it did not. I kept waiting and the drop never came. So I finally took the plunge at the end of 2002.

I guess the problem I have with those who say we have a choice is... what is that choice? I need a place to live. In the city. So its either rent or buy. After 32 years of living in a rental, I didnt want that anymore. But even if you think prices are out of line, if every open house you go to the place already has 2 or 3 bids at or above asking... sigh.

To the person who mentioned Chinatown... prices there were particularly surprising! Since almost everything else is cheaper in C-town, I figured housing would be similarly discounted. But its more expensive that midtown! And they often want like 40% down! For tiny little spaces. The only way I could justify it would be that I could eat a nice dinner for $3.50 every night. Haha. And buy groceries at 30-40% less than The Food Emporium, Gristedes, et al.

I think prices dropped slightly after 911 especially downtown, but it rebounded pretty quickly. Like the rest of us, you were probably trying to figure out why half the tech stocks you owned were down 50%. :)

i feel energy in park slope in fact i am electrified and if i really want to be burnt out i take a 10minute train ride to downtown manhattan