Welcome to the bottom: Housing begins slow rebound

Also interesting, but seems to support the seasonality argument. Most were up against January (no surprise considering trough to peak selling seasons), but down year-over-year for June. Some exceptions are found in the Mid-West and West regions, but did you notice median home values down 9% and 25% respectively? I'd expect some increased buying activity on that. Nothing I would hang my hat on, however.

What about the HEAD FAKE?
What about the MOTHER of all HEAD FAKES?

Do head fakes buy cards on mother's day?

But National is not NYC. Prices here were slow to drop. Why do you think we are immune from the precipitous drops that other overbuilt cities experienced. Don't you think the huge surge of residential building in this city was based on Bloomberg's assumptions of a greatly increased population. What if that increase doesn't materialize due to economic stresses. I think time will be the only arbiter of the end of the slump here.

As Angler said - we had the worst June EVER in housing and people are calling a bottom?

The foreclosure problem is not going away nor is the unemployment problem. We go lower from here. Trust me.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/more-charts-on-new-home-sales/

we did not have the worst June ever. The data only tracks new homes sales. Existing homes sales are what you should watch as they constitute the bulk of the sales.

"The Northeast, more than any other region, felt the full force of the credit crisis that reshaped Wall Street. Manhattan's real estate market, long immune from price declines, tanked this year as tens of thousands of people lost their jobs.

"Prices of for-sale apartments plunged in the second quarter by the largest amount in decades. Prices have fallen, on average, between 13 and 19 percent, according to four reports published recently by real estate firms."

Yes prices in the rest of the country are leveling out. And they will here, as well. But we're well behind the national curve.

For the record I never said $250k for a 1-bedroom. $400k, and I stand by it.

President - so I'll clarify - we had the worst June ever for new home sales -how can anyone call the bottom when new home sales are the worst ever? We go lower from here.

Also to note that investors are about 40% of the buyers in Las Vegas and the like - so those units aren't being absorbed they are simply transferring from the balance sheets of the banks to balance sheets of individual investors. The supply glut in these markets is still a real problem with no real solution (other than time and population growth).

I agree with you Steve, we will see i bedrooms in the 400k range again & when we do, I'll also buy.

but stve, you said prices would fall 50%. I don't recall 1 bedrooms ever being worth $800k, at least not in co-ops.

If you don't recall 1-bedrooms asking $800k, then you haven't been paying attention.

this is just great....my weekend is ruined!

co-op 1 bedrooms never hit $800k. The most I've seen them ask is $600k.

really...what about this one asking $875K?

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/400242-coop-100-riverside-drive-upper-west-side-new-york

peopel can ask whatever they want to.

julia, i don't see how someone with zero analytical skills can ruin your weekend.

marketobserver posted this a couple of days ago:

From yesterday's release:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/beigebook/2009/20090729/2.htm

New York City's market, however, has shown further signs of deteriorating, in both the sales and rental markets. In the second quarter, the median sales price for existing co-ops and condos in Manhattan reportedly fell 26 percent from a year earlier, while the number of sales transactions fell 50 percent; the inventory (number of units listed) was up 9%, though there is reported to be a substantial "shadow" inventory of new apartments--condo units that are unsold but not yet listed. Brooklyn's and Queens' markets have also slackened in the second quarter, with median prices of existing apartments reported to be down 15 to 17 percent from a year earlier, and the number of transactions down roughly 30 percent. The city's rental market has also slackened further, with asking rents reported to be down 8-12 percent over the past year, and actual rents off more than 17 percent, on a per square foot basis. Also, landlords are increasingly offering concessions--free rent for one or more months--in slack neighborhoods.

numerous areas saw record foreclosure activity in June, July. huge increases. will be interesting to see what the banks do in response to the admins dictate that they complete at least 500k mods by november. if one wants to think like a bank, one would conclude that they would do bandage mods on some of those loans most likely not to fail (wrap any overdue amounts back into principal, for example, and maybe lower the interest rate a bit but fail to decrease outstanding principal of loan), and then foreclose as quickly as possible on any remaining properties that could be subject to foreclosure to avoid having to modify them later.

sadly, this is just too easy:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/08/unemployment-15-million-workers-will.html

Over the coming months, as many as 1.5 million jobless Americans will exhaust their unemployment insurance benefits, ending what for some has been a last bulwark against foreclosures and destitution.

The Option-ARM recast issue might not be such a great issue because the people with said mortgages are already defaulting:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/07/option-arms-good-news-bad-news.html

The wave of “option” adjustable- rate mortgages recasting to higher payments, projected by some economists to represent a looming source of foreclosures that will hurt housing markets over the next few years, will be smaller “than feared” because many borrowers will default before their bills change, Barclays Capital analysts said.
...
About 40 percent of borrowers with option ARMs are already delinquent, and “many” of the others will start missing payments before their obligations change, the Barclays mortgage- bond analysts wrote in a July 24 report. ...

AR...thanks...i'm beginning to breathe again

If you follow the WSJ's Laid Off and Looking blog, almost all of the original highlighted unemployed persons have found a job. The older candidates are having less luck. They added new people to the list of unemployeds to keep the old folks company.

I work on the buy side (finance) we are super busy launching deals. Private equity, real estate, etc. Haven't been this busy in years. My sell side friends are seeing stabilization.

This was interesting too. I wouldn't classify myself as a bull, but you bears are annoying me. I'm just a UWS homeowner looking to upgrade....I think that makes me somewhat neutral.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=ahRV7KbfekAw

"i don't see how someone with zero analytical skills can ruin your weekend."

there are too many jokes for such a straight line for me to choose just one.

UWSer, how great it is that people in finance are getting jobs, when everyone else seems to be losing them. warms my soul to see a table drop that kind of cash on a bottle of wine in these trying times. does that annoy you?

AR - It really doesn't illicit an emotion. Posted the article as I thought some might like to know that WS is starting to move beyond the flat line. That's all.

fair enough. sorry for the pissy comment. just find it a bit ironic that the one area that seems to be doing better in the employment arena is wall street.