If You Can Demonstrate Market Movement With Comps: Upper Manhattan Edition

7 West 119th Street, $423 per ft², 31% less than a year ago. Open House: Sun, Aug 09 (10:30 - 11:30)
207 West 131st Street, $298 per ft², not reduced yet.
470 West 148th Street, $357 per ft², 28.5% less than 3 months ago.

well there is interest, but the number of closings here have been few and far between
the other issue is with the psf of townhouses -- the condition varies a lot from shell to high end so it is not easy to compare.
Hope we'll see some actual sales soon with appropriate comps

151 west 122nd will be an interesting one -- bought as a shell to renovate for 1.4 million, quickie "green" reconstruction as a single family sponsored by Better Homes and gardens and then on the Market for $4 million at a cool profit. Now down to 2.8 million
probably the reno cost 700k to 1 million so they may be getting closer to their margin
they focused on LEED certification rather than thoughtful remodeling with superior energy efficiency and comforts in mind -- still nicely done, but not sure what flavor of buyer will pop for this

7 west 119th is a tough sell -- nice finished but small chopped up rooms -- totally claustrophobic and odd in many ways -- down to 1.1 million starting at 1.6 million. Likely will go under a million if it sells at all

joe, saw more newly listed properties than ones in contract. transactions will remain low imho and inventory up, so what makes a comp? my guess is that there will be more mkt info coming from sellers undercutting each others asking prices than from closings.

i ignored shells and ones requiring a gut reno (also those that seemed too dark, almost estate condition).

2056 Fifth Avenue (Rhapsody on Fifth). Four recent closings suggest cratering in multiple lines.
07/29/2009 # 5D $690,000 -7.9% $749,000 ↓ Sold 2 beds 2 baths 1,325 ft²
---------- Recorded Sales ---------- | ---------- Previous Listings ----------
07/29/2009 # 5D $690,000 - 7.9% |↓ .. $749,000 Sold 2 beds 2 baths 1,325 ft²
06/12/2009 # 5B $550,000 -15.2% |↓ .. $649,000 Sold 2 beds 2 baths 1,130 ft²
05/05/2009 #3AB $965,000 -12.3% |↓ $1,100,000 Sold 3 beds 3 baths 1,992 ft²
04/29/2009 # 4A $445,000 - 0.9% |↓ .. $449,000 Sold 1 bed 1.5 baths 862 ft²

10/16/2008 # 6A $670,000 + 0.0% |↓ .. $670,000 Sold 1 bed 1.5 baths 862 ft²
07/25/2008 # 4B $850,000 + 0.0% | .... $850,000 Sold 2 beds 2 baths 1,130 ft²
07/15/2008 # 4D $950,000 + 0.0% | .... $950,000 Sold 2 beds 2 baths
07/15/2008 # 3D $915,000 + 0.0% | .... $915,000 Sold 2 beds 2 baths 1,308 ft²
07/11/2008 # 5A $645,000 - 7.2% | .... $695,000 Sold 1 bed 1.5 baths 862 ft²

good point -- shows also that s of 125th the pickings are slim still
I know there are many potential sellers -- based on properties that never sold but were on the market

check 310 W 133 sold for $1.06 million one time asking price $2.5 or more -- was renovated but ugly location

also 134 and 136 Manhattan Avenue -- all the way down at 105th st sold for 1.1 and 0.8 million respectively -- I missed those -- would have bought either one even at a gut reno situaiton

I believe 310 west 33rd St shows the biggest chop ever in Central Harlem. I didn't see it, but looks like an impressive deal05/05/2006

Listed in StreetEasy by Warburg at $2,900,000.
10/13/2006
Price decreased by 5% to $2,750,000.
03/13/2007
Price decreased by 2% to $2,695,000.
06/27/2007
Price decreased by 4% to $2,595,000.
07/30/2007
Listing is no longer available.
Sold for ......... $1,060,000!
That's something.

yes mimi that is a bog chop but the original pricing was ridiculous as was the 2d round -- Todd Stevens was responsible for round 2
Place was nice in some respects but the location was spooky

236 West 138th Street: Resale of a renovated 2-family Georgian townhouse - once the home of Eubie Blake - for 35% less than the seller paid in 2006.
-------- Recorded Sales -------- | ---------- Previous Listings ----------
07/20/2009 House $1,692,500 -14.3% |↓ $1,975,000 2 family
09/29/2006 House $2,600,000 + 0.0% | . $2,600,000 2 family

Maybe the Harlem-watchers on the board know the story behind this sale. The seller appears to have put $1.1MM down in 2006, borrowing $1.5MM. It isn't clear whether the renovation was completed before or after that transaction; the 2006 listing describes he property as "under renovation". In any case, the proceeds from the recent sale were probably just enough to pay off the mortgages.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/building/236-west-138-street-manhattan

good eyes west81st!

Harlem condos "in deep doo-doo"
August 13, 2009 11:00AM
Broker Willie Suggs

Any New Yorker not living under a heavy rock in Central Park knows the condo and townhouse market is in rough shape. But for Harlem, the situation is a particularly severe brand of awful this year. "Condos are in deep doo-doo," Willie Suggs, a broker and more than 20-year veteran of Harlem real estate, said. The first two quarters of 2009 saw just 83 apartment sales in east and west Harlem combined, a grim number when held in comparison to 2008, which saw 229 deals in the last two quarters, according appraisal firm Miller Samuel. Prices are faring no better; in 2008's second quarter, the average price-per-square-foot for a one-bedroom apartment in Harlem was $900. In the second quarter of 2009, that figure was down at $572

http://therealdeal.com/newyork/articles/harlem-condos-in-deep-doo-doo

wonder what's the amount of units that sold with income restrictions and if those were taken out of the price/sf2 calculation.

Now the people that are pulling the trigger in Harlem (like me) will have the Harlem Zagat guide to decide where to eat....

mimi, were you renting while living in argentina?

hey, kind of off topic, but not so much after all..., just in case you have kids, the amount of sex offenders is much larger than in other zipcodes (UES and UWS), only levels 2 and 3 are included in the website. not level 1.

but it's not bad to check how many are around the block you plan to buy.

http://www.criminaljustice.state.ny.us/nsor/search_index.htm

admin, what would it matter, if mimi was renting or owned? maybe she inherited. maybe she found something cheap. maybe she plans on owning two properties.

and while i question the "helpfulness" of your noting the sex offender issue, and setting aside the general ramifications altogether, since when do sex offenders only target children?

"what would it matter, if mimi was renting or owned?"

since when my curiosity has to be aligned with yours?

sex offenders: those in the list for zip codes 10025 and 10026 mostly do if you check. no idea whether they did prey on adults but were convicted cause of incidents with the minors only.

Admin, I sold a loft in Tribeca, moved to CT, sold in CT, moved overseas. I've been in NY 3 times on the last 12 months looking for properties. Last time it was 7 weeks, since I really wanted to have a more real take on the neighborhood. I stayed in temporary rentals. I just fell in love with central Harlem. I love Mt Morris Park, the friendly community, the active cultural life, the new population diversity (which includes all races and countries of origin.) I die for the architecture. I am planning to spend more time there as my kids grow up. I might end up living there full time one day.
Regarding safety, I lived in the East Village in 1989/90, and it was much worse than Harlem today. Also, you call a car service and a car materializes at your door in 1 minute, and it's cheaper than a yellow cab.
I forgot the Harlem Zagat link!
http://newyork.seriouseats.com/2009/08/bill-clinton-helps-launch-the-first-zagat-harlem-guide-book.html

so you were renting in argentina? (that was my question)

"I love Mt Morris Park, the friendly community, the active cultural life, the new population diversity (which includes all races and countries of origin.) I die for the architecture."

that's where the best brownstones and the best "bones" of harlem are imho. nice choice!

Why do you want to know that Admin? I'm just curious as well...

i'm curious in general about people's aversion to long term renting. i've seen you have none (aversion) to short term renting, am i right there? during your years in argentina, did you rent too? do you regret it?

i'm just trying to understand why you (along with many other people) want to buy while prices are falling hard instead of considering renting for a couple of years. in terms of gathering info, it's never too early though. but as i understand, you want to go and take the plunge as we speak (along with many other people). i don't understand that (yet) from a financial point of view. i think i do from a non-financial though.

anyway, is it possible (asset allocation wise) that once we ride nicely on a bubble/bust there is a bigger tendency to try not to miss the next one (rising the chances of entering too early?).

a friend rode nicely the RE bubble in spain, took big profits and almost losses most of them buying at the peak in nyc. there was a bias towards "if it worked before it'll work now". whether it's RE or stocks, when not to play it is as important maybe as how to play it. personally, i've done very nicely with the RE crash, does it make me more prone to overplay my hand? i'm afraid so, now i want to time it all!!! lol

Admin, I own and I live in Argentina. I am far from being a RE analyst, but after 11 months of spending hours a day researching and reading I believe that this is not a bad moment to buy, if you can get a good deal on a place you really like. If I wanted to do this 2 years ago, I couldn't. Now, given the new prices, I can, and I the neighborhood I am looking at is beautiful, and, in my opinion, has a great future. I could wait 6 more months, but, as long as I can have a good deal, I feel somehow protected if I buy now. At the end of the day, it is an intuitive move. Rents are down, but in 5-10 years I might have a nice place in a very desirable neighborhood for a good buy-rent ratio. I really believe so. After what happened with the stock market, I feel safer with bricks. This might be because I come from a culture where as soon as you can buy, you do, so I might not represent any demographic trend...

"the neighborhood I am looking at is beautiful, and, in my opinion, has a great future. "

totally agree, i even think that retail around that area - the 125th corridor (once they figure out what to do about traffic) - is going to improve (which might be somehow lacking now).

admin, i see. and i agree with you. this still doesn't seem like the time to pull the trigger. but i happen to be privy to some of the details of mimi's deal, and it seemed like a very good opportunity to me as well.

as you know i entirely concur with you on the issue of long-term renting.

Your link to sex offenders was a sobering one. I see that 10027 is a bigger area than all others in Manhattan, and that 10026 has way more offenders in a smaller area. The reality is that you have sex offenders all over the city. The great majority abused adults, not children. Again, central Harlem is not for everybody, at least for now. As the east village before, you encounter more pain and crisis than other parts of the city. You have to know your way around and not walk past certain hours. Not everybody wants to live this way. I took the risk before and I take it now, first because the chances of something happening are still low with crime in the area more than 90% down in the last decade. Second, because I believe that just sheltering your family 100% from societies pains makes your life less real (I lived in CT and I found it as boring as a cemetery.) Third, because with that risk you get also some community beautiful things, as everybody saying hello in the street, people actively helping people in need in a tangible way, a feeling of consciousness about a new racial mix (taking in consideration the respect for the black community you truly need to feel to be part of it) etc...

there's no free lunch. the more info you have, the better the odds to chose the best trade offs for you i guess. regarding whether the victims are adults or kids, i actually looked at the sex offenders list after having kids, never before :-) not that wouldn't mind being raped, but i am more concern for kids than for us adults.

cheaper rents and higher poverty rates will bring you those things with it, more people of parole, higher unemployment, more drug issues here and there and the like. but hey, they needs to live somewhere too (i prefer to know if it's the guy next door given that i have kids). for me a big pro would be that my kids will (hopefully) be more street smart than otherwise. we will see...

I just have to say that I think it is an absolute outrage that people who have served their time in jail set free are listed in a searchable public database. If their crimes were so heinous that they can't live out of jail they should be in jail. If they are severely mentally ill they should be involuntarily committed. But it is just an outrage against justice to publicly list them in that manner.

It is a depressing sign of the increase in government powers and erosion in civil liberties that such a publicly-available database exists.

Happyrenter-It all started with a famous case, what was the name of the little girl?

I have mixed feelings about it. If a guy who raped 3 little girls lives next door and hangs out in my street and says hi, as is the custom in Harlem, I will really like to know before my little girl accepts his lollipop. On the other hand, I do agree with you. I believe that if you paid for your crimes, you can start a new life. I believe that troubled people can change and needs an opportunity to be redeemed.

One thing I always hated about Wilton, CT is that every police report showed up in the local paper. One very nice normal guy I know, a lawyer, was caught with 2 beers in his system, got to the paper, and some people didn't want their kids to play with his. A woman had a loud fight with her husband, the police showed up, 2 days later the whole town knew about it. Stupid and sad.

from wikipedia. very, very tough issue.

The law is named for seven-year-old Megan Kanka, who was kidnapped, raped, and murdered by Jesse Timmendequas, a repeat violent sexual offender. Timmendequas was found guilty, and was on New Jersey's death row. In December 2007, New Jersey ended the death penalty. Timmendequas will now serve life without parole.
Timmendequas had recently moved into the Kankas' neighborhood, in a home across the street from the Kanka household, living with two other convicted sex offenders. The Kanka family claims not to have known this information, though the majority of their immediate neighbors were at least aware of the criminal history of one of Timmendequas' roommates, Joseph Cifelli, who had lived in the house for six years. Maureen Kanka maintains that had she known about Timmendequas' prior conviction, she would have warned Megan to stay away from him.

The amount of sexual abuse of children that occurs is horrifying. By far the greatest percentage of incidents occur with an adult or older youth who is known, and often well known, to the child.

I have a tremendous amount of sympathy for the parents of this victim, but 7-year-old Megan should have been warned to be careful around all adults and older children, even those known. This can be done without instilling paranoia.

I agree with happyrenter. And keeping tabs on the neighbors is self-defeating. The person next door who has no record may just have never been caught.

people at high risk for sexually assaulting children should never be allowed back in public. In fact, I'm all for public beheadings. The fact that some very ill man who was convicted of sexually assaulting a child aged 7-365 days (yes, under 1) lives 3 blocks from me makes my stomach turn. They all make my stomach turn and I am horrified that so many have "served their time" sufficiently. I'm not sure that a publicly available database is the flaw here.

"I believe that troubled people can change and needs an opportunity to be redeemed"

unfortunately, rehab is very very unlikely with such violent offenders mimi.

i doubt we understand why people do these kind of things to kids. they do need special help, i don't believe that's being done. many of them might have been victims of abuse themselves.

it's not a normal crime, the damage caused to the victim might not be temporary. as a parent, their time in jail in the past doesn't relieve me from my duty to protect my kids if i think that there's a chance of repeating. so if you want parents a chance to protect their kids, the info is needed. that is, without making them pariahs (they have to live somewhere) might be the best we can do at this point. it's obviously a trade off between right to safety of kids and right to privacy of the convicted.

i guess my position is that as a parent i need the chances of repeat offenses as close to 0 as possible more than the punishment of spending years in prison. that's why, even if jail time was done but they do it again, it's not enough.

According to the 1994 study of 11 states and Washington, D.C., half of the women who reported they had been raped during 1992 were under 18 years old, and 16 percent were younger than 12.

In separate study of three states in 1991, 96 percent of the female rape victims younger than 12 years old knew their attackers. Twenty percent were victimized by their fathers.

According to BJS, this was the first multi-state study that documents the high occurence of child rape.

In a 1991 BJS survey of child rape state prisoners (the rape of girls under 12), 94 percent of the offenders said their victim was either a family member, friend, or acquaintance. This result was almost identical to that found in law enforcement data from three states in 1991.

Single copies of the BJS Crime Data Brief, "Child Rape Victims, 1992" (NCJ-147001), as well as other BJS statistical reports may be obtained from the BJS Clearinghouse, Box 179, Annapolis Junction, Maryland 20701-0179. Telephone orders: 1-800-732-3277. Fax orders: 410-792-4358.

sadly admin, it is easy to understand why; many are textbook cases. it's just not easy to "fix them".

"it is easy to understand why; many are textbook cases."

why then? illuminate me please.

oh heavens. I'm not going to give a sexual deviance 101 seminar here. my point is that the behavior of sexual predators is well researched, well understood, and it's well documented that rehab rates are very low.

given the grotesque prevelance of sexual abuse of children, i find it hard to understand on any level.

http://www.childtrauma.org/CTAMATERIALS/sexual_abuse.asp

In the United States one out of three females and one out of five males have been victims of sexual abuse before the age of 18 years. Sexual abuse occurs across all ethnic/racial, socioeconomic, and religious groups. Unfortunately, sexual abuse is considered a relatively common experience in the lives of children. A report released by the National Institute of Justice in 1997 revealed that of the 22.3 million children between the ages of 12 and 17 years in the United States, 1.8 million were victims of a serious sexual assault/abuse. There are gender differences with regard to sexual abuse incidents; specifically, girls are at twice the risk than boys for sexual victimization throughout childhood and at eight times the risk during adolescence. Because significant physical, emotional, social, cognitive and behavioral problems are related to childhood trauma, the need to more effectively address the issue has become paramount.

"well understood, and it's well documented that rehab rates are very low. "

just saying, maybe the 2nd part means that the 1st is not that true. it reminds me of my profs saying "we don't have any more biz cycles cause we are just so good at monetary policy"... a notch complacent. anyway, don't know enough about the issue.

aboutready,

you hit the nail on the head. one out of four americans is the victim of sexual abuse, yet in my entire zipcode there are four registered sex offenders. this is an absurdity--an affront to justice that does nothing to protect anyone. what is the chance that my child will be abused by one of these four men? infinitessimal. what is the chance that my child will be abused? rather high. my job as a parent is not to shield my child from some specific ex con, but to protect my child from adults in general. indeed, my child is many times more likely to abused by someone I know well--a family member, a teacher, a close family friend--than by a stranger. parents are just fooling themselves if they think this sort of database will provide any protection for their kids.

as for the idea that we should engage in public beheadings, i hope that isn't a serious suggestion.

something else interesting about this database: while it is well known that white men are by far the most likely to commit sexual abuse nearly all the men in the database are black or hispanic. but silly white parents can rest assured that they can warn their kids away from some random black ex con who poses essentially no risk, while the kids are in fact at grave risk from their white relatives, friends, teachers, doctors, and ministers.

No doubt catholic clergy has a higher pedofilia rate than any other demographic.

pedophilia

ok, sexual abuse of children is probably one of the issues that i take most serioulsy in life, but:

ar - those stats are pretty misleading. i'm too tired to get into why, but they are somewhat inflated.
mimi - that's just not true. it's just been overly sensationalized.
hr - i would not be upset by public beheadings.

uwsmom,

those statistics probably are inflated. but the fact remains that the most common sexual--as well as other physical--abusers of children are:

1. The father.
2. The step-father.
3. The grandfather.
4. The uncle.
5. The mother (yes, the mother).
6. The professional caregiver (doctor, teacher, minister, camp counselor, nanny).
7. The family friend.

The likelihood of a child being sexually abused by a stranger--even by a neighbor-- is negligible. So when you write: "The fact that some very ill man who was convicted of sexually assaulting a child aged 7-365 days (yes, under 1) lives 3 blocks from me makes my stomach turn," I would be curious to know why. Is it because sexual assault is a heinous crime just makes your stomach turn? Or does it have something to do with his proximity to you? Because the latter point is basically irrelevant. He is a stranger, which means he is hardly a threat. If you want to be vigilant about protecting your child, start with your husband, your father, your brother, your in-laws, your pediatrician, your nanny, etc. etc. etc. Those are the people who should scare you, not this stranger.

Back to public beheadings: if, as you say, it is so hard to 'fix' sexual abusers, then what would be gained by public beheadings? Maybe you think that the Spanish Inquisition or Palestine under the Roman Empire were model examples of just governance. But for those of us who value democracy and individual freedom, the fact that anyone would suggest such a thing is disturbing to say the least.

Lastly, you seem aware of the fact that many serial sexual abusers are 'ill,' yet you seem to have no trouble with the idea that they should be publicly slaughtered in the most gruesome way. You believe mentally ill people should be slaughtered? Shouldn't they be in mental hospitals?

actually, uwsmom, they're not. they're not all rapes, but they all represent serious sexual abuse. and those statistics are found remarkably uniformly in study after study. and HR is right, the database offers no reassurance, because arrest and conviction rates are much different based on race, but the incidents cross all socioeconomic lines.

i majored in psychology, with an emphasis in developmental, and spent two heartrending years working in a hospital with children who were the victims of abuse (although not all sexual). it is one of the issues that i take most seriously in life.

mimi, teachers, uncles, doctors, child-care workers, friends of the family, clergy, parents, friends' parents. what is sad is that the powerlessness of the child brings out such evil in so many people who are in positions of trust.

uwsmom, a lot of fathers would be beheaded. hundreds of thousands.

aboutready,

you are dead-on. the hysterical response to rare, high-profile stranger abduction and rape of children completely clouds the very real threats. and treating the few sexual predators who are caught as if they are some kind of exotic, rare monster is absolutely pointless. it creates a false and dangerous sense of security and does nothing to protect children.

and public beheadings would do nothing to protect children either.

:) morning all.
hr - yes, i said it makes my stomach turn b/c the offense is so heinous and hard to stomach. i've worked with a spectrum of mentally ill populations (from schizophrenia to pedophilia to troubled youth). I have tremendous compassion and respect for the mentally ill population. This does not change how I feel about violent offenders of children. if they could be "locked up in a mental hospital" forever, that would make me happy. Anything to prevent repeat offenses.
ar - went to grad school for child psych before switching to philosophy and many studies that I've seen w/ such high numbers have curious subject sets and methodology. by that i mean that many i've seen with high results include all individuals under 18 and have a very wide definition of abuse, from unwanted verbal solicitation and statuatory rape (which is often consensual) to the more serious offenses. I also believe the risk is sensationalized by various groups who use such stats to fuel their cause by spreading fear. its such a real, serious issue, but you have to be careful with statistics.

anywho, very heavy topic for such a lovely sunny day. we're heading to the park. i hope you all enjoy your day.

and, hr, you're kind of missing the point. we may not know the men on that database, but they are likely friends, acquaintances, perhaps fathers, brothers, uncles, etc to some children out there. Just b/c we have been blessed to have been shielded from these individuals doesn't mean that everyone is.

have fun at the park.

the statistics have been remarkably consistent over the last couple of decades.

this is an issue that has been deemed oversensationalized ever since Freud made his u-turn.

uwsmom,

you believe the risk is 'sensationalized' yet you yourself advocate public beheadings? talk about sensationalizing! you studied philosophy in graduate school? me too. please share the justification for public beheading.

"The likelihood of a child being sexually abused by a stranger--even by a neighbor-- is negligible."

hr, is it higher than dying from a terrorist attack? or marrying after 40? we definitely need more people like you: people who not only don't mind living along these individuals but also volunteer to do so providing them all the privacy they want and need.

"but silly white parents can rest assured that they can warn their kids away from some random black ex con who poses essentially no risk, while the kids are in fact at grave risk from their white relatives, friends, teachers, doctors, and ministers. "

do we need to play the racial card over and over? "silly white parents" make you delude yourself into thinking you are smarter than somebody? in other neighborhoods with less people you do see some whites convicted for crimes that are worse than the average conviction in the black ones. that's in part cause of lack of good lawyers and confusing "consensual but under 18" with rape. it's poverty more than race.

Back to catholic priests and sexual abuse, found 2 stats:
"According to a survey by theNew York Times, 1.8 percent of all priests ordained from 1950 to 2001 have been accused of child sexual abuse."
"The US alone has more priests than the top three Catholic countries combined (41,000 in the US to 37,000 in Brazil, Mexico and the Philippines combined)."
A nun in my catholic school tried to kiss me when i was 12. I am truly more scared of sending my boys to catholic school than to living in an area where sexual offenders dwell.

Back to crime in Harlem, jason10026 (whom I miss dearly in these threads) wisely commented on the higher density of Harlem as against other neighborhoods like midtown, which are way less populated, and the impact this has on stats:

"I said the FBI said that 10027 (where I lived) and 10029 &10035 (the east harlem hoods in those debates) were safer than 10011, 10012, and many other hip zips in Soho, WV, Meatpacking, etc. On a per capita basis, the FBI says you are more likely to be a victim of most types of crime including murder in those areas, as can be found in nyt real estate section neighborhood stats, where one can search by zip.
But I also said that there WERE zips in upper Manhattan that had very high crime rates, but that the three in question were not them. My point being that people who feel "safe" in the meatpacking district are actually less safe than they woudl be at 116th and Lennox."

mimi, doesn't the area closer to Morningside Park feel safer to you than Mt Morris Park? you have Columbia Univ close by and the extension (once finished, who knows when!) on "Manhattanvile" might end up being lovely if it resembles what Columbia is proposing.

http://neighbors.columbia.edu/pages/manplanning/

http://neighbors.columbia.edu/pages/manplanning/proposed_plan/DesignElements.html

those are the drawings of what htey want to achieve. i'm really impressed! that could make the area cleaner and with more services than the area closer to Mt Morris. but then the brownstones close by (close to morningside park) are not so nice (smallish, darker, ...).

Admin, I believe the crime stats above 116th st and below 125, next to Morningside are about the lowest in Harlem. The house stock there, though, is narrow (16, 17 ft) and in many cases, dark, and the architecture doesn't compare. Also, though it has amenities, it feels less lively than MT Morris. Settepani is really like the kitchen of Mt Morris Pk, if you sit there, you'll see a lot of community interaction, I just love it. I really dig the drummers in the park on saturdays as well.

definitely the housing stock is worse close to morningside park (the park per se is better though)... but manhattanville is something to enjoy a decade away, not for people that buy now i'm afraid. the issue with Mt Morris is that it has the feeling of an island within a ghetto.

malcolm x is the avenue with best bones (in the whole island! imho) but then it's dirty as hell and still as of today has tons of vacant-dilapidated stock.

btw, the "correct" name of the park is Marcus Garvey, not Mt Morris (kind of Malcolm X versus Lenox).

admin,

you miss the point entirely: i already do 'live among these individuals.' there are sexual abusers and rapists living everywhere. given the prevalence of sexual abuse and sexual assault it is highly likely that at least one of the people commenting on this thread is an abuser. the question is not whether i am willing to live among these individual. the question is whether it serves any legitimate purpose to single out the few who get prosecuted and convicted for lifetime publicly-searchable registration.

as for 'the race card,' that's just a canard. it is blatantly obvious that the criminal justice system is outrageously stacked against ethnic minorities. the use of illegal narcotics is significantly lower among blacks than among whites, but the rate of incarceration for drug possession is over 10x higher. Likewise, white men are far more likely than blacks to sexually abuse children, and yet this database seems to include hardly any whites at all. I am playing the race card when I point out the obvious?

fair enough hr, fair enough.

btw, i insist, it's not race, it's poverty what determine the odds of being convicted. poverty is being criminalized. if you are black and latino with money, you can get away with it (for ex, bill cosby).

admin,

this is silly to debate. the statistics don't lie. correcting for income and wealth blacks are far more likely than whites to be caught up in criminal justice. income has less of an effect than race, but both play a role.

is this thread about market movement with comps in upper manhattan?

wanted to be, now it's severely off topic. ... :-(

ar - yes, high rates of abuse have been consistently reported, but i question whether it's consistently inflated numbers. I'm certainly not going to argue it's not a problem, but interesting/important to read the fine print of such reports.

hr - you think public beheadings is overkill? ok, maybe it's a little dramatic. The beheadings don't need to be public. But to seriously answer your question, sexual offenses, particularly violent offenses against children are, imo, some of the most severe out there. I think the punishment should be extremely severe. A couple of years in jail does not do it for me. People who rape infants and toddlers should not walk this earth. Period. I don't care how they are eradicated. I don't care how "ill" they are (and we're using "mental illness" very loosely in this thread). I do not feel compelled to be politically correct, nor do I have a need to be perceived that way. We should debate renegade justice sometime.

"this is silly to debate. the statistics don't lie. "

hr lol lol lol, as those of us in the dismal science know well enough: "Torture numbers, and they'll confess to anything."

sorry admin. was just answering a question asked of me. I only feel slightly bad about the tangent this has taken b/c you brought up the topic ;). Hopefully it will get back on track. Sorry that I have no harlem info to offer.

renegade justice? sorry uwsmom, i'm not going to debate absurdities. 'i dont' caire how they are eradicated' is a very disturbing thing to say, no matter what crime we are talking about.

and that has nothing to do with political correctness i could care less about that.

admin,

indeed. like trying to claim that race has no impact on treatment in the criminal justice system. now THAT'S abuse.

"you brought up the topic" i'm fully aware of that and take full responsibility. it's very complex topic, unfortunately we are not gonna solve it here. still the more aware the better imho (still don't buy the "it's fully reported, fully understood" though, ... but don't buy that in any area, especially in my own! lol).

hr, what's the proportion of whites in jail that are from a poor background? poverty related crimes are given harder jail sentences (as supposed to white collar crimes) and the defense system is made in a way in which by being poor your odds of getting a good defense are severely impaired. belonging to those (non white, non asian) correlates more highly with being poor. isn't society punishing being poor? that's abuse imho.

for those interested in Harlem's brownstone, NPR (93.9 fm) is having now an interview with somebody that bought one on west Harlem and refurbished it.

http://www.amazon.com/Home-Girl-Building-Dream-Lawless/dp/1400065267

"From her vantage point in a former crack house in West Harlem, she brings life to a proud community held hostage by drug dealers and forgotten by policy makers."

back to comps!

this owner didn't do so well on the resale. this was before the peak, as well.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/390512-condo-125-central-park-north-central-harlem-new-york
11/01/2005 Previously Listed in StreetEasy by Halstead Property at $1,400,000.
01/31/2006 Halstead Property Listing is no longer available.
08/23/2006 Previous Sale recorded for $1,425,550.
03/09/2009 Listed in StreetEasy by Sotheby's International Realty, Inc. at $1,500,000.
04/01/2009 Price decreased by 7% to $1,395,000.
05/06/2009 Price decreased by 5% to $1,325,000.
07/20/2009 Price decreased by 10% to $1,199,000.
08/11/2009 Listing entered contract.
08/18/2009 Listing sold.
08/18/2009 Sale recorded for $1,050,000.

wow, is this 2003 pricing?

I was about to post about 125 CPN, PH4 but AR beat me to the punch. The buyers of 7B at 125 CPN, who paid $1.2 M in Feb. 2008 (a 22.7% premium over the 2006 closing price) for a 1177 sq ft 2 br/2 ba must be kicking themselves. They could have had PH4, with an additional bedroom/179 sq ft, for 12.5% less (which by the way was a 26% discount over the 2006 closing price) had they waited a year and change to buy.

(BTW, admin, I believe that the 2006 sales reflect 2005 contracts, so the PH4 sale is probably pre-2003 pricing.)

When 7B was on the market in 2007, the first closings at 111 CPN were taking place and rumors (for all I know, initiated by the broker) were afloat that Starbucks was going to rent space in 111 CPN and Whole Foods had interest in the neighborhood. The buyers of 7B must have drank the kool aid that 111 CPN was going to gentrify the area and paid accordingly; by the time PH4 was on the market, it was pretty clear that transformation was not going to take place at the pace reflected in the asking price.

I came close to putting an offer on 7B but felt that there was a disconnect between the pricing and the neighborhood. Every time I look at the recent listings in this building I am ever so grateful that I dodged that bullet.

"BTW, admin, I believe that the 2006 sales reflect 2005 contracts, so the PH4 sale is probably pre-2003 pricing."

ok, i take your word for it, ... i'm ready for a pre-2003 pricing state of mind.

This condo has the most incredible views possible, and a lot of windows to enjoy it. The living room was too long and narrow, the bedrooms were smallish and a bit awkward, and the reno was generic. But, god, the views, overlooking south, with all the park and the empire state and the chrysler...awsome.

what's in between the bath to the right and that little closet?

oh boy, it's an "out of the bathroom" sink, wtf?

admin: Just to play devil's advocate, there weren't "luxury" condos in Harlem in 2003, so it's hard to come with a suitable comp!

mimi: I loved the view but my boyfriend thought that living in those apartments would leave us feeling trapped and frustrated that we didn't have any outdoor space from which we could fully savor the elements and the surroundings.

"boyfriend thought that living in those apartments would leave us feeling trapped and frustrated that we didn't have any outdoor space from which we could fully savor the elements and the surroundings."

agree with your guy!

hey, to my taste, there's not a whole lot of real luxury stuff in harlem nowadays. it's basically a marketing name for "clean and although rather small it has no asbestos".

That out of the bathroom sink is completely absurd, on top of that it looked like a home depot sink.
Maybe if the living/dining kitchen area was wider, you would not have that trapped feeling. Can't have everything! Most of the apts in CPW have no outdoors space... But the apt under this had a terrace, I think....

it would have been better to extend the mini closet to take the whole length on that wall and probably give it more depth.

"it looked like a home depot sink"

exactly, almost everything defined as "luxury" i looked to so far seems as cheap as possible.

2002 Fifth, PHC. one for the terrace people. 3/2, cramped bedrooms, high maint. but includes parking, and terraces. nice chopping, too, although highly overpriced out of the gate.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/394492-coop-2002-fifth-avenue-central-harlem-new-york

08/11/2006 Previous Sale recorded for $995,000.
01/22/2009 Previously Listed in StreetEasy by Barak Realty at $1,725,000.
02/25/2009 Delisted by Barak Realty.
03/03/2009 Currently Listed in StreetEasy by Halstead Property at $1,495,000.
03/24/2009 Listed in StreetEasy by Halstead Property at $895,000.
07/21/2009 Listing entered contract.
07/29/2009 Listing sold.
08/21/2009 Sale recorded for $870,000.

I posted this 75% discount Harlem sale (courtesy of ah) in the favorite price choppers thread but it never showed up so here it goes:
http://curbed.com/archives/2009/08/31/harlem_circus_house_sells_for_over_75_off_original_price.php#more

2002 Fifth Avenue #6C: Same unit resale of a 3BR/2BA condo with balcony, 12% below original purchase from the developer. Confirms the decline that Aboutready noted above for Penthouse C.
09/13/2006 Previous Sale recorded for $840,100.
05/15/2009 Listed by Corcoran at $799,000.
06/02/2009 Price decreased by 6% to $749,000.
06/19/2009 Price decreased by 1% to $739,000.
09/15/2009 Listing entered contract.
12/30/2009 Sale recorded for $739,000.
Harlem experts: Any thoughts on $479/ft²? Is there support at that level, or will an inventory glut and thin demand spell ongoing free-fall?

same unit resale, 9W. 16W closed for $342k in 08/08. good timing.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/412605-coop-235-west-102nd-street-manhattan-valley-new-york

07/13/2005Previous Sale recorded for $274,500.
05/11/2009Listed by Corcoran at $325,000.
05/21/2009Price decreased by 14% to $279,000.
07/25/2009Price decreased by 7% to $259,000.
08/09/2009Listing is no longer available.
08/20/2009Re-listed by Corcoran.
11/25/2009Listing entered contract.
01/14/2010Listing sold.
01/14/2010Sale recorded for $250,000.

I posted this 75% discount Harlem sale (courtesy of ah) in the favorite price choppers thread but it never showed up so here it goes:
http://curbed.com/archives/2009/08/31/harlem_circus_house_sells_for_over_75_off_original_price.php#more
----------------------------------

mimi, saw this house the other day. what a gem! fantastic purchase imho. did you find your gem yet? or still looking? i've seen some short sales around harlem, and thought "mimi should bid!"

Posted elsewhere last week, when I couldn't find this thread:

Same-unit resale of a one-bedroom, down 13% from 2007:http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/429936-coop-340-haven-avenue-washington-heights-new-york

02/18/2007 Previously Listed in StreetEasy, already in contract, by Olshan Realty at $345,000.
03/27/2007 Previous Sale recorded for $330,000.
09/18/2008 Previously Listed by Prudential Elliman at $340,000.
09/19/2008 Delisted temporarily by Prudential Elliman.
06/19/2009 Listed by Prudential Elliman at $310,000.
10/09/2009 Listing entered contract.
01/20/2010 Sale recorded for $287,000.

Notadmin, thanks for remembering. I´m still looking, and had an accepted offer for 2 weeks last october but the deal fell through. In my opinion, Harlem is still going down. Foreclosures are starting to happen, short sales, Ive seen only 2. If you know of anything, please let me know! mimibuenosaires@gmail.com

those that i've seen are not in mt morris, but around 130th/132th. BAC (through CFC, by using ACRIS) is the bag-holder on many of those. some blocks around that area seem to me to be ripe for short-sale activity. many of those were refurbished with a program of the city (multi family) were sold with lotteries and people put down a pittance (plus no need of putting $ down for reno). so there's a very low basis and little skin... hence my idea that it's gonna fall hard, it just takes longer.

from April on, a new gov program that's supposed to give incentives for short-sales (instead of foreclosures) is supposed to take place. the only player that signed up is BAC. so thought that those 2 things might be related.

the benefit for people in your position is that you will not have the waiting for lender's approval period. in this case, the lender will market it and establish the price from the get go. the "owner" will have no say and no role. it's more transparent, less emotional and better for prices to clear. given that they generate comps, buyers in the sidelines should benefit from lower prices even if they buy regularly.

i still think you are too early in the game especially for Harlem (hope i don't keep on saying this till 2014!). great time to do research though.

morningside heights has been quite resistant to price movement. this is a convertible 2/1. can't tell who did the renovation.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/416111-coop-509-west-122nd-street-morningside-heights-new-york
04/21/2006Previous Sale recorded for $670,000.
05/29/2009Listed by Stribling at $789,000.
06/19/2009Price decreased by 6% to $739,000.
07/22/2009Price decreased by 6% to $695,000.
10/01/2009Price decreased by 6% to $650,000.
11/07/2009Price decreased by 8% to $599,000.
12/01/2009Listing entered contract.
02/16/2010Listing sold.
02/16/2010Sale recorded for $585,000.

this 4-family townhouse just closed for $980,000. no description available, only exterior photos, at $2,750,000 i'd expect at least some of the work to have been completed, even at the height of the market. listed as 6500sf. the house sold for $1.3mm in 10/03 and $1.4mm in 02/07. quite the chopper.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/building/36-west-128-street-manhattan

06/28/2008Listed by Corcoran at $2,750,000.
10/24/2008Listing is no longer available.
04/16/2010Currently Listed by Halstead Property at $1,875,000.

never mind, i just noticed that the LLC that purchased it has the same address as one of the sellers. probably one owner sold his half to the other.

small renovated 2/1.5.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/434004-condo-301-west-110th-street-central-harlem-new-york

09/29/2005Previous Sale recorded for $699,000.
06/06/2009Previously Listed by Bellmarc at $710,000.
07/03/2009Listed by Bellmarc at $710,000.
12/08/2009Listing entered contract.
01/28/2010Re-listed by Bellmarc.
02/25/2010Listing sold.
02/25/2010Bellmarc Listing is no longer available.
03/22/2010Sale recorded for $660,000.

new listing, income restricted. more than 10% off very early '06 sales price.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/528983-coop-330-west-145th-street-hamilton-heights-new-york

01/31/2006Previous Sale recorded for $450,000.
06/01/2010Listed by Prudential Elliman at $400,000.

Ouch. See 157 West 111st Street http://streeteasy.com/nyc/closing/1018792?email=true

3/01/2007
Previous Sale recorded for $1,323,832.
01/17/2009
Previously Listed by Brown Harris Stevens at $1,550,000.
07/16/2009
Brown Harris Stevens Listing is no longer available. Last priced at $1,199,000.
09/29/2009
Listed by Prudential Elliman at $1,175,000.
02/25/2010
Price decreased by 15% to $999,000.
04/15/2010
Listing entered contract.
06/17/2010
Listing sold.
06/17/2010
Sale recorded for $980,000.

the fitzgerald managed to unload a few units during the spring frenzy. here's 3C. 2C sold for $743,322 10/08.

sponsor financing with 5% down. $483 psf.

05/08/2007Previously Listed by Halstead Property at $755,000.
01/22/2009Halstead Property Listing is no longer available.
01/24/2009Previously Listed by Citi-Habitats at $755,000.
04/07/2009Citi-Habitats Listing is no longer available.
04/28/2010Listed by Penmark Realty at $619,000.
05/26/2010Listing entered contract.
06/16/2010Listing sold.
06/29/2010Sale recorded for $585,493.