Patient buyers - this is a good sign...

good idea. we had the 2/2 for $650k thread, but that's still kind of difficult, at least for listing prices.

east_cider, I want to agree with you, but the big red flag with both those units (and I know you said you didn't want to discuss these in particular, but...) is the very high maintenance. Over $2k/mo in ccs for a 2/2 is quite a lot in my experience.

Those maintenance levels are a deal-killer.

bjw, I'm somewhat surprise to hear that, as part of the reason I thought these were good examples was that they had reasonable maintenance and reasonable down payments. For apartments of this size (maybe 1200 or 1250?), I think $2000 in maintenance is pretty typical. When I see numbers below that, I picture a gross, mirrored lobby with ratty furniture and a bored porter filling in as "doorman." When I see number above $2000, I picture nicer amenities and/or a land lease.

You can find a fine UWS 2/2 with those parameters, minus the excessive maintenance. Are doormen less bored on the UES? Oh, and throw in double the parks and double the transportation options.

Interesting comment on CCs. I thought they are a tiny bit high for these exact fl. plans and buildings but I too considered the asking price as clear acknowlegement of this fact. I've seen quite a bit in these hoods and see these asks as in line for first offerings. Does anyone have listings to the contrary to support the claims of a 'high' cc?

If anyone sees any condos coming down in price, I would love to see those. I have no interest at all in buying a coop.

spinnaker1, if my alias didn't already give it away, I'm an east side shopper (guess I should have mentioned that). But I agree that there seem to be a lot of UWS places that crack the $800s.

You can rent places like those for about $4k, so if you take into account the maintenance plus the 20-25% downpmt, you're paying around $6k a month to own. I think renting still makes more sense with those 2 examples.

actually, right now the UWS seems kind of thin in terms of inventory in this range. a couple of months ago i saw a bunch. and who knows what will come up next month.

luchias, i agree. i'll look for condos also, but they'll fall more slowly all other things being equal.

a_g, I think the tax shield and the fact that you have a much better shot of capital appreciation from the $800k level (compared to the $1.2mm level) start to tip the balance in favor of owning.

I haven't done that math, but does the tax shield and possible appreciation (or depreciation) account for the $2k difference every month, plus the opportunity cost of the $160,000 downpayment (20% of $800k)??

hmmm $50k/yr to rent, el yukko. A little stronger down payment and more reasonable maintenance and buh bye landlord.

Just sayin it ought to be a consideration and not so easily discarded as an example of fiscal irresponsibility...

"For apartments of this size (maybe 1200 or 1250?), I think $2000 in maintenance is pretty typical"

I agree. Not saying its low by any means, but $1.60 or so psf isn't outside normal range for luxuy apartments. $1 would be VERY low, $1.25 would still be a great deal.

east_cider - I just checked with my doorman -yep, bored to tears. But you really ought to try it over hear. Understand though the neighborhood loyalties.. I have mine as well.

AR - you are correct, a lot of the UWS inventory in this bracket did get gobbled up.

here

out of curiousity, what do you think the conservative ROR on 160k on an S&P ETF would be over the next 5 years? Better or worse than the return on an apartment? I really want to buy, but still the math for renting on a month to month basis is better than buying. Unless of course you think in 5 yrs you'll make a good return on selling the place.

falco, here are examples of lower ccs (I'm guessing the amenities are probably fewer, but these are more in line with what I'd expect):

http://www.corcoran.com/property/listing.aspx?Region=NYC&listingid=1501160
http://www.prudentialelliman.com/listings.ASpx?listingid=1035534&utm_source=Streeteasy&utm_campaign=corporate&utm_medium=listings
http://www.sothebyshomes.com/nyc/sales/0016155

and, lets not forget, pretty much ALL of these apartments got major CC hikes as of late, so this might actually be closer to the "norm".

If this was a 600 square foot one bedroom, $1k wouldn't be particularly scary right now.

PS, here's one on the UWS:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/351624-coop-2166-broadway-upper-west-side-new-york

LP1 - I traded my S&P ETF for a terrace with fresh tomatoes, basil and rosemary, and a wood burning fireplace to bring a little romance back into those long winter nights.

Thanks aboutready. I know my wait will be longer for a condo but I think in the end, it will be worth it :)

"and, lets not forget, pretty much ALL of these apartments got major CC hikes as of late"

Link(s), please? Not denying it, it's just the first I've really heard of this, especially if it's as universal as you say. I think high ccs are more typical of UES coops (part of the reason the ppsf seems low for the neighborhood), so this may be a perspective thing, esp for east_cider who's mostly looking at this specific area.

I guess you can justify buying a place for $800k, with $2k maintenance, and a 20-25% downpmt, if feel that the apt will appreciate or that rents will rise in the future.

Here's a good but old tool to use....
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/10/business/2007_BUYRENT_GRAPHIC.html
You'll notice small changes in assumptions make big changes in whether it makes sense to buy or not financially.

LuchiasDream, the second link I posted above (111 West 28th) is a condo - not sure if it's at all appealing to you, but it's an indication that you can find a condo in that range (and with lower ccs than the UES places in the op).

a_g...

"I haven't done that math, but does the tax shield and possible appreciation (or depreciation) account for the $2k difference every month, plus the opportunity cost of the $160,000 downpayment (20% of $800k)??"

If you assume 50% deductibility on the maintenance and apply the tax shield against your last dollar of earnings, then yes, you are almost certainly neck-and-neck with the hypothetical $4000 rental price. The real key is the prospective appreciation on the apartment over 5-10 years with 80% embedded leverage. Renting doesn't stand a chance if you can get a few hundred basis points of compound appreciation over that time period.

Thanks bjw2103. That particular condo is still out of my price range but it's good to see prices come down for a 2b/2b When I 1st started looking in 2006, I didn't see ANY condos of this size for under 1 million. SO glad I didn't buy then--I thank God everyday!

That's true and the reason is because you are leveraged. So any appreciation would be on the whole loaned amount. But as many have learned, if the place depreciates the tables are turned.

But I don't disagree with you especially if you are bullish on RE. As i said before a few tweaks in assumptions and it may make sense to buy despite the seemingly high maintenance and downpmt.

byw - your 3rd link is a cutie. 5 rooms, 1300 maint, corinthian columns -all for under 800..

Here's one for ya

Almost 1500 sq ft, cc/maint at $1 per foot (a more appropriate "normal" range) and it's a condo.

An estate sale which means....Sell.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/445985-condo-340-east-64th-street-lenox-hill-new-york

r u guys stone crazy... or crack crazy... when rents start bobbing around $3K for 2bdrm in UES... now what? And if 3bdrms trade at $800K in 1 to 2 yrs... now what... enjoy the basil and fireplace, me I've got ballz of steel and experience to back it up, haven't you heard MR. Wong just cleared $643psf in a really nice building (B location), but A building w/o trying... so extrapolate...a 1200 sq ft.. would cost =>? I can't do the math, can a broker help....

and remember, this is just the first arms length trade w/ 121 units for sale and another 100 for rent... can a borker also help me w/ the supply and demand graph, and please no french pastry millionaires allowed on the demand side.... LMAO....

As noted on a different thread, sometimes posted common charges are misleading. Some buildings like to keep common charges artificially low, and finance rapairs/replacements through frequent assessments. When the assessments are added back in, the effective maintenance is higher.

And, again, buildings with doormen, porters, handymen will have higher carrying costs - (and terraces usually hike up an apartment's maintenance vs. same apt. w/o terrace. But $1.50/1.75 ft. is certainly not of line, and if you look at well established condos, and add the maintenance in with the taxes, they usually come out to about the same total level as the comparably sized /amenity coop.

those maintences are definitely high. At Lincoln Towers on the UWS, the maintenaces are about $1,800 a month and it is a decent building.

yo 67! How's the latest $1500 psf trade at your GM timeshare fit into your future plans? Better hurry and sign that new (what, $100K?) lease. Looks like you'll be waiting a while.

Oh, and I just got a REDUCTION of maintnance in my coop by 5% - (successful appeal or real estate taxes). And, in addition, some of the most expensive buildings in the city (5th, Park, cPW) with apartments selling for many millions, have ridiculously low maintenance charges because of the city's system of determining real estate taxes (basing them on RENTAL apartments in the immediate area). So walkup on Lexington helps artificially keep lower real estate taxes on the 10 room apartment on Park.

"For apartments of this size (maybe 1200 or 1250?), I think $2000 in maintenance is pretty typical"

"I agree. Not saying its low by any means, but $1.60 or so psf isn't outside normal range for luxuy apartments. $1 would be VERY low, $1.25 would still be a great deal."

I disagree. At Lincon Towers, the maintenace is $1,800. And it is one of the best 2 bedroom apts. in NYC since you can easily convert the dining alcove to a third bedroom. And yes, the outside is mad ugly, but that is minor.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/326645-coop-150-west-end-avenue-lincoln-square-new-york

I may be missing something, but that apartment doesn't look bigger than 1,200 sf (maybe even less, as they don't show footage) - so isn't that $1.50/ft ?

Maybe even more like $1.60-!.75?

> "and, lets not forget, pretty much ALL of these apartments got major CC hikes as of late"
> Link(s), please? Not denying it, it's just the first I've really heard of this, especially if it's
> as universal as you say. I think high ccs are more typical of UES coops (part of the reason the ppsf
> seems low for the neighborhood), so this may be a perspective thing, esp for east_cider who's mostly
> looking at this specific area.

First you've heard of this? Really?

I'm talking about the 5-10 links posted here 2-3 months ago (going back ot 6 months) about 1) taxes going up nearly universally and 2) maintenance going up because of increased costs on all the basics. Hell, just look up bloomberg property tax rates will get you halfway there.

"At Lincoln Towers on the UWS, the maintenaces are about $1,800 a month and it is a decent building. "

Lincoln Towers are some of the crappiest large buildings in town. These are bordering on co-op village-type buildings. The things look like projects. If you're calling that a benchmark, you don't have much of a case.

> Almost 1500 sq ft, cc/maint at $1 per foot (a more appropriate "normal" range) and it's a condo.

$1 a foot is not normal for co-ops.

And, the fact that you're mentioning condos shows you might not get the important distinction.

AOTBE condos will have MUCH lower maintenance because there is no underlying mortgage.

spinny, you know 17B traded at $4.1MM and closed on 3-5-08... that's $1900psf. You also know when you get off the elevator you make the first right and the A/B lines are for the "upper" class and cattle go left right, just like on a plane. A/B lines have excellent views down b'way and amsterdam, and forever views b/c of Lincoln Center.

I bid on H line, which were trading at $1700psf... one just cleared close to $1000psf.... you also understand construction so, you gotta understand straight lines? Plot this straight line $1900psf, $1500psf, ????

LMAO. YOU SHOT YOUR WAD TOO SOON. When I buy, I promise to still be a bear.... LMAO. I am buying b/c our income 3x in the last 3 yrs and we just banked $1MM in cash, and had someone just fund a college trust for our two kids. BUT I would never ever tell people to buy at 2004. 2003, 2002 prices.... LMAO. I'm an honest f'n RE guy.

"But $1.50/1.75 ft. is certainly not of line, and if you look at well established condos, and add the maintenance in with the taxes, they usually come out to about the same total level as the comparably sized /amenity coop."

There you go.

I think folks just want to dismiss some particularly low comps. Times have definitely changed.

Lincoln Towers... sorry, still laughing about that one.

Whats funny, didn't r*fus say he lived there?

Makes sense, alpo and R, two guys who don't live in Manhattan, so they think Lincoln Towers is a regular building...

btw, I just noticed that one of the two has a balcony. Thats going to add extra maintenance, and not square footage technically...

some apts. at Lincoln Towers sell for over $1 million. I would not be making jokes about the building.

"I'm talking about the 5-10 links posted here 2-3 months ago (going back ot 6 months) about 1) taxes going up nearly universally and 2) maintenance going up because of increased costs on all the basics. Hell, just look up bloomberg property tax rates will get you halfway there."

Could you just post the link then? I think 5-10 units is hardly indicative of a "universal" trend, but would like to see more data.

"I think folks just want to dismiss some particularly low comps. Times have definitely changed."

Nobody's "dismissing" here - I still think these are too expensive and not particularly indicative of a new low in pricing. Do you find these to be well-priced? Are you, of all people, getting bullish? I'd still look for better deals.

alpie, you just proved that the bubble is alive and well.

I'm enjoying all the comments, but I fear we may have lost sight of the original purpose of this discussion...that is, the apartments in the "meaty part of the curve" seem to trending toward more reasonable asking prices, agree or disagree? As a benchmark, we're talking mid-century co-op 2bd/2bth in good areas. A lot of these otherwise dull apartments rode the coattails of the bubble to seven figure prices, but now we're seeing a trickle of asking prices approach 30% off those levels (at least among reasonable sellers). Can it be long until the $800s is the mainstream price range, and bargains hit the $600s?

""I'm talking about the 5-10 links posted here 2-3 months ago (going back ot 6 months) about 1) taxes going up nearly universally and 2) maintenance going up because of increased costs on all the basics. Hell, just look up bloomberg property tax rates will get you halfway there."

Could you just post the link then? I think 5-10 units is hardly indicative of a "universal" trend, but would like to see more data."

Not 5-10 units, 5-10 article links noting overall massive movements in common charges. Not that this is the best source, but one of them was a NYTimes re section cover story. Check therealdeal, probably your best bet.

The larger point is that the components of maintenance are all up overall, so our old standards of $1.25 / $1.50 a square foot or whatever may actually be outdated.

67 - 1000 psf seems pretty good for a timeshare, if that's your thing. Also for the creamier units support at 20% below 07/08 seems entirely appropriate and better than I would have expected.

"Nobody's "dismissing" here - I still think these are too expensive and not particularly indicative of a new low in pricing. Do you find these to be well-priced? Are you, of all people, getting bullish? I'd still look for better deals."

Who said it was a low? I certainly didn't.

Its just a clear milestone... decent 2/2s for $850k is something we haven't seen in a LONG time (and I know, thats my usual search).

Might it go lower? Possibly.

Yes, I generally focus on direction, but sometimes I like to look outside the window and see where I've gotten to, you know?

> alpie, you just proved that the bubble is alive and well.

LOL.

Alpo, some things in New Jersey sell for over a million, and we definitely make jokes about that. lincoln towers is low end, sorry. It might be high end for jersey, but its low end for here. You certainly aren't paying for amenities with that maintenance.

"alpie, you just proved that the bubble is alive and well."

Um, no I didn't. The apts. that at LT that sell for over $1 million are 3 bedrooms and your not touching any of them for under a million, even in this market.

"Nobody's "dismissing" here - I still think these are too expensive and not particularly indicative of a new low in pricing. Do you find these to be well-priced? Are you, of all people, getting bullish? I'd still look for better deals."

$800k for a 2/2 in prime Manhattan is definitely well priced. Your not going to get one for $600k depsite what the bears say.

Funny thing is, alpo said the same thing about $1.1, $1.0, and $.9.

Given his 100% wrong track record, I think he just increased the odds of that happening tenfold!

"The larger point is that the components of maintenance are all up overall, so our old standards of $1.25 / $1.50 a square foot or whatever may actually be outdated."

I find this hard to believe - fuel costs are down, no? Incomes have at best stayed flat. What's driving the supposed increases in common charges? This is obviously only one piece of data, so in no way should be taken as a marketwide trend, but we actually overbudgeted for my building on ccs.

I guess I'm just surprised to hear you intimate that these prices and maintenance are reasonable.

"Can it be long until the $800s is the mainstream price range, and bargains hit the $600s?"

east_cider, a bit tough to peg a number to such a wide range like that, but I think you're in the right ballpark.

"alpie, you just proved that the bubble is alive and well."

"Um, no I didn't. The apts. that at LT that sell for over $1 million are 3 bedrooms and your not touching any of them for under a million, even in this market. "

I love that alpo is so slow that he doesn't get he's arguing against himself.

nice try east_cider... another hijacked thread... and I for once share the blame...

3 bedroom apts. for over a million are not a sign of a bubble. 3 bedrooms have sold very $1 million for a VERY VERY long time.

3 bedroom apartments in the projects for a million are a sign of a bubble.

Alpo's logic is moronic, as usual.

Because Exxon was worth billions and had been for a long time by 2000, did that mean pets.com at a billion wasn't a bubble?

Jeez, Jersey education system really stinks, doesn't it.

oh, so now LT is a project? Give me a break. Arguing with you is like arguing with a coffee table.

and sorry for my post, i misread and thought you meant cracking 850 per sq ft not 850K

Alpo, go to their own website
http://www.lincolntowers.com/info/history.php
and find the part that says
"On Manhattan's West Side that transformation included two major development projects located in the Lincoln Square Urban Renewal Area, which were constructed at about the same time, and only blocks away: Lincoln Center for the Performing Arts, and, just one and one-half blocks north, Lincoln Towers ..."

Now, how do they refer to Lincoln Towers? A development _________ ... fill in the missing word.

Oh yeah, we left $850 psf in the dust a while back.

> Arguing with you is like arguing with a coffee table.

Alpo argues with his coffee table? Why am I not surprised.

Though maybe in Jersey, the toxic waste makes the wood come alive...

with coops yes but not quite as much with condos...........yet

"I find this hard to believe - fuel costs are down, no? Incomes have at best stayed flat. What's driving the supposed increases in common charges?"

nyc, nothing? Anyone who can share their experience on this?

Question. If these $4000 rental-equivalent apartments have $2000 in maintenance, why would you want to pay $850k anyway. That "return" sucks. 3%.

"I think $2000 in maintenance is pretty typical."

That's why purchasing is so awful. Maintenances have gone up a lot more than rents, and unlike rents, they never go down. These $850k apartments could fall to $500k under a number of plausible scenarios. Oh but if you buy for cash you can 'earn' 3% on your money. Fantastic.

"Project" is a broad term alanhart. According to dictionary.com, "project" is

1. something that is contemplated, devised, or planned; plan; scheme.
2. a large or major undertaking, esp. one involving considerable money, personnel, and equipment.

So under this definiton, ANY building can be a project. It does not matter if it is Lincon Towers or 15 CPW.

"What's driving the supposed increases in common charges?"

Increasing wages for union employees, costly renovations, and increasing property taxes.

So then LT is a public project. A government scheme.

"Question. If these $4000 rental-equivalent apartments have $2000 in maintenance, why would you want to pay $850k anyway. That "return" sucks. 3%."

Rhino, totally agree. That's why it's crucial to look at ccs - though they can go down, it's far less common - when they're this high, you're going to see lower prices, so it can be misleading to just look at ppsf when the discrepancy in maintenance is fairly large. I think some people consider the UES to be a bit cheaper because of this, even though monthly costs would end up in the same range and possibly higher.

we always talk about ppsf for buying (not talking about the rent vs. buy threads, talking about the charts that show how prices have changed over time), but it seems as though it would be much more meaningful to discuss monthly cost psf. you'd have to make a random assumption on downpayment (say 20%), but you'd know the other factors. if looked at that way, prices went up even more, and are even more out of line with incomes than previously considered.

If prices are so out of line, why are people buying? Obviously they can afford what they are buying. And even with tight lending we are seeing close to 1000 closings per month and inventory about to dip below 9000 for the first time since, what last November?

spin, don't make me say it. without something propping up prices, they return to a normal rent/buy ratio, and buy/income ratio. even in manhattan.

"but it seems as though it would be much more meaningful to discuss monthly cost psf. you'd have to make a random assumption on downpayment (say 20%), but you'd know the other factors. if looked at that way, prices went up even more, and are even more out of line with incomes than previously considered."

aboutready, not a bad idea at all. This makes things more complex, but I think it would help. I would like to see more data on maintenance costs rising so much recently (as nyc hasn't posted anything yet).

"And even with tight lending we are seeing close to 1000 closings per month and inventory about to dip below 9000 for the first time since, what last November?"

spinnaker, I've wondered about this as well - in this environment, buyers have to do a much better job of showing they can actually afford a place. What's selling is definitely down, and I've always maintained there should be some kind of premium to buying vs renting, but a lot of asking prices are still out of whack.

'If prices are so out of line, why are people buying?'

Buyers are amateurs. Even seasoned buyers that are buying a primary residence are amateurs. How many RE tranactions would you have to accomplish for yourself with your own money before you could consider yourself a pro? So..........we are all babes in the woods. Smart babes (on SE), dumb babes(my wife HAS to have this place), even babes with chicken pox. A lot of these babes are depending on their state licenced RE professional to cover all the details and watch out for all the sharp edges.
That's like depending on Captian Kangaroo to sail the boat...he is a Captian.
Prehaps with the help of Captain Crunch? A much more nautical uniform.

I wrote earlier that Brokers are telling their clients that the bottom has passed and prices are on the way up.

Let's say it all together, "buy now or be priced out forever"

oh the pain, oh the pain

.....And even with tight lending we are seeing close to 1000 closings per month and inventory about to dip below 9000 for the first time since, what last November?....

Spin where do get your inventory number for the City? The only one I'm aware of is the one here and it's at 12,919

urban digs scrubs the numbers and is generally viewed as providing more accurate data and trending -although who the hell really knows..

http://www.urbandigs.com/charts.html