More empty stoerefronts?

What's with Fox Business news and all the Tiffany stock reccomendations?

"E-banking will reduce the need for all those bank branches. That in itself could be a downward force toward lower rents and bring back some mom & pop businesses which do more to help the local community."

While I agree that logically makes sense, the boom in retail bank branches in Manhattan occurred concurrently with the book in e-banking, so there is a disconnect between what we think should be happening with what actually has happened. But more importantly, i think we've seen a sea change in the way retail is done in Manhattan and I think the mom and pop shop is a dinosaur which will not be reappearing from extinction.

30yr,
Industry specific.. As much as I would like to see the proprietor owned drug store make a come back, I doubt it will(The pharmacist owner really does help you out!) but for some businesses which don't compete on price so much, this could happen to an extent. Food, liquor, furniture, and unborn businesses models come to mind.

You're right on the nose with pharmacies (my uncle sold his East Harlem totally self owned one about 12 years ago). The problem, as I alluded to earlier, is that the way retail leasing and pricing has changed, it's hard for anyone with a reasonable amount of available cash to open. Think of how much capital it would take to open a wine store and think about the possibilities of being able to get a sufficient return on that amount of cash under the current model.

"What's with Fox Business news and all the Tiffany stock reccomendations?"

Not familiar: could you please enlighten?

Riverside watches too much Fox, and is assuming people here does. Remember, RS, NY is different...

It will be interesting to see what the retail landscape looks like 2-5 years from now. As 30yrs points out, commercial leases, particularly for large companies, take awhile to cycle. How many gaps, etc., does a city of this geographical size need, given on-line shopping, cost cutting, inventory control efforts, etc.?

fox/tiffany? ha.

I'll tell you what I pray for...drastic decrease in retail store front rents. A return to the mom and pop shop. I've lived on the UES with my family for the last 1000 years. You would think there would be ONE restaurant in my hood where they really knew us and what we liked. A place we went to all the time. We are not even that picky but the rental demands of this hood demand great volume so any true personal attention is hard one to find. I'm not saying we don't know anyone but, we have that 'go At least once a week at Oscar's Salt of the Sea on third in the thirties. When we walked into this place my Grandparents were greated by Oscar himself as if they were returning Roman conquers. He knew what they drank and was calling for it as he took their coats. We ate out a lot when I was a kid and in better places. I can't seperate fond memory from reality but, for sure it did not feel ther same.

we don't have that 'go to' place.
sorry about the typo

You need to go to LICC these days for that.

For years I've seen surveys from various food industry sources on an interesting subject: "What makes your favorite restaurant your favorite restaurant?". Now, One might assume that it was different for everyone, but the top reasons would be the usual "food, decor, service". Except that almost every survey I've seen on the subject had the top answer as none of these three, but instead "they greet us by name when we walk in and know what we like".

As much as i also would lioke a return to the "good o9ld days" and "can't seperate fond memory from reality" as well as "what I pray for...drastic decrease in retail store front rents. A return to the mom and pop shop. "... as I've said a bunch of times already in this thread: it's over. Not going to happen unless there is another de-gentrification/white flight/anti Manahttan/whatever. Just like the manufacturing base in this country - it ain't coming back.

not to be a nitpicker but i went there as a kid as well. you got everything right but it was in the 60's on 3rd and yes....they remembered everyone.

I want staff to look down when they speak to me.

pay them and they will.

so what will fill those empty spots long term? air?

we still get that service, in our favorite places in the east village, and in some places we've been going to for over 20 years.

Over time landlords and residential sellers will prey their heads out of their asses...and we will find out the real clearing price. Maybe Manhattan will suck the whole of Brooklyn back in, and Brooklyn will become the new Long Island City.

'pry their heads'

Interesting story on Bloomberg today. According to Zagat the price of a restaurant meal in London has declined over the past year - almost unheard of.

Lower rents = lower consumer prices.

Thanks for the shout outs to Oscar's Salt of the Sea...the weekend hostess there Joanie O, was one of my girls from my block downtown. She always looked so nicely dressed up when she was going to work and she NEVER invited any of us to dine at Oscar's...even if we could pay. Probably a good career move.

One of the places where my family was a known entity (forgetting the fact that my dad was a "known entity at Corner Bistro, Jack Delaney's and a few other Village gin mills) when I was a kid was John's Pizzeria...before it expanded and when the only "out of towners" that would ever darken the doorway would be someone's cousin from New Jersey. I get sick when I pass it now and the lines of the tragically hip and those recommended by guide books are out the door--and I'm sure my Dad is rotating in his grave. But then again its the only one of the "neighborhood" places that's still open (excluding White Horse and Corner Bistro which have both become very different incarnations of their former selves).

More bad news... unless you are worried about our budget deficit..

Sept. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Arthur Perschetz, president of the
Fell’s Point Residents Association, will keep what he calls
“the heart of the community.” The post office on a cobblestone
street in Baltimore isn’t among 413 locations being considered
for closure or consolidation.
Yesterday, the U.S. Postal Service pared the number of
urban and suburban facilities it may shut from about 3,600. The
Fell’s Point’s branch is among three Baltimore area post offices
on the original list that were spared. Two remain.

Riverside: it just weird that when the last administration ran the largest deficits in history for 8 years you wrote nothing. Now you can't seem to stop. Rather self-serving.

some perspective is sorely needed here. for example, i'm quite familiar with lex in the low 80s, and from the frantic postings here you'd think it was a ghost town. let's see, in the past 6 months, DR and CVS have renovated and occupied 2 very large spaces on opposite corners of 84th & Lex (i personally have no idea how they can both prosper, or why the neighborhood needed them, but they are there and presumably paying rent). a tiny flower shop closed, and a crappy pita/deli store that was open for all of 6 months closed. a laundromat moved from one side of the street to the other, into a smaller space. and a tiny place that was once a french bakery, as well another that was a judaica store remain vacant, but have been so for well over a year, and are more of a reflection of awkard spaces/ridiculous asks than anything else. other stores have opened up, including some breast feeding store. turnover is actually pretty decent, especially considering the environment.
i'm not denying that we're in a bad recession, but retail has held up pretty well. you people act like its mad max out there.

kyle Last administration did a TERRIBLE job running a balanced budget. We don't seem to be moving in a better direction...

what is a 'breast feeding store'? they have stores for that?

RS, you're joking, right? can you say massive deflation?

but this is a thread on the state of retail in NYC.

kw, i saw that the other day. talk about niche retailing. i predict failure within six months.

"but for some businesses which don't compete on price so much, this could happen to an extent. Food, liquor, furniture, and unborn businesses models come to mind."

A big "Huh?!" - People love good prices for fungible products. If a chain liquor store existed that could, because of pricing power, carry the same labels for less, it would crowd out the mom & pops the way Duane Reade/CVS/Walgreens are doing to pharmacies. In NYS there is a limit to the number of licenses (locations) an entity can have. I think it is one, maybe two.

There are also major limitations on liquor distributors. You wouldn't believe the amount of influence, corruption, and pseudo or not-so-pseudo organized crime is involved in most states because so much is controlled by state-level politicians. The reason is because the Constitution still has Prohibition (Prohibition was never repealed, it was merely modified so that each state controls their own laws).

"kw, i saw that the other day. talk about niche retailing. i predict failure within six months."

Don't be too sure. The one on the UWS has been around for 10 year I believe. There may be room for an upstart on the Upper East...

Bfeeding boutiques. The one mortar-and-brick representative on the UWS, Upper Breast Side, has survived for many years despite the snarly attitudes. There is definitely demand.

breast feeding store.....hmmmmmmmmmmmm

Tell me again who the demographic is?
'cause I love breasts almost as much as chinese food.

Now if this is for new mothers, I agree, it's a bust.
If it's for me it's not just gonna be big, it's gonna make Pink Berry look like a dumb idea.

10023, it's more the location of this one. busy. go to staples, petco and the breast store. but hey, we'll see.

falco, you really need some new listings. stat.

For years, the UBS was located in a nondescript apt building, with no storefront. I think their business model is highly dependent on getting first-time mothers to drop $500 on bfeeding pump, accessories & bras. It's either that or spend the same amount online, without the sales support (snarly though it is). I don't know anyone who has gone there with subsequent pregnancies.

Now, if Duane Reade/CVS carried (electric) breastpumps for sale or rent, they'd basically CRUSH the bfeeding boutiques.

Look at the demographics: huge boom births + interest in breastfeeding + mothers having or wanting to return to work = breastpumps.

Here's the upside: Thousands of out-of-work people are examining their lives and families for entrepreneurial opportunities. If commercial rents come down, they'll try some, based on what they like (like personal service.) Most will fail, as most new businesses do, but many will become new necessities we didn't know we had.

downtown there were a couple of children's stores that carried them. so i guess i didn't realize. i'm pretty sure little folks on 23rd had them. maybe bigelow?

Breast feeding needs on the UWS are well handled by Albee baby and their price for breastpumps was much lower than other places. (And they have been there since the 1930's!)

"Now, if Duane Reade/CVS carried (electric) breastpumps for sale or rent, they'd basically CRUSH the bfeeding boutiques."

Don't be so sure. There is often space in the city for specialist stores. How else to explain Tennis Stores, running stores, Myers of Cheswick and Magnolia efing Bakery. Would you really want to go into Duane Reade and talk to some high school kid about how your breast pump is working?

I'm sure most of you know but there is actually a pet portrait place on Hudson Street. Not far from a children's pharmacy. And a children's haircutter. A little farther up was the Woof Spa, although I guess that one was a stretch since it didn't make it too long.

My point exactly, Malthus. There are all those people out there who can't get jobs and see an opportunity to create one for themselves. If only they can afford the rent on a storefront.

Excuse me...
Just got off my ass and walked over to the breast feeding store myself.

Turns out I'm right!
Imagine my glee when they asked me if I wanted to 'SUPER SIZE' that order.
Don't psss on the tiny tyne tater tits, so good there evil!

Inventory better get here soon..............................

AvUWS: you really want to discuss your bfeeding needs with the crew at Albee's? Um, okay. F at Upper Breast Side was a little better at guiding a new mother, though her attitude stinks/stunk.

"it's a bust. "

lol

So I got a call today from Duane Reade saying they had assumed the prescriptions of the wonderful "mom and pop" pharmacy I used to use when I lived on 30th street and 3rd Avenue. While I don't use them anymore do to geography (only in NYC does a 12 block move entail a whole adjustment in life), this completely broke my heart. The Corner Drug Store provided personalized service, delivery and if would "advance" you a couple of couple of pills on medication you took regularly if you couldn't reach your md for renewals on time (NOT the good stuff, they were very strict about that).

Fortunately for me, I have found another excellent local pharmacy in Gramercy. But havinging to use Duane Reade is real decline in quality of life for people in my old neighborhood..and considering how hard the owners of Corner Drug worked, a shame for them as well (they are way too young for retirement). The commercial rent problem is not just a real estate issue, maybe its just New York catching up with the rest of America but its a damn shame when the chains are the only choice we have for basic services.

Similar thing just happened on 8th and University: CVS opened on the corner, Metro Drug immediately closed RIGHT next door. I'd be curious if anyone knew any inside story like if CVS made some payment to Metro to go away and they took it because they read the writing on the wall. Funny thing is, in the immediate area, CVS opening didn't do much for the vacancy rate: on that very block (micro-micro: North side of 8th Street, West Side of University to East side of 5th) there's still 2 of the largest 3 retail spaces vacant (although I think CVS actually took 2 of the top 4: numbers 3 and 4, which now became #1?). And that space in 11 5th seems to be vacant for a long time (kylewest, you remember when it went vacant?).

i was talking today to a friend of mine who is expanding a business in another city. zero. zip. very successful two locations, one of the few cities that never had a real downturn, etc. no cash.

what one must remember when one surveys the retail landscape is that in times like these many many more locations would LIKE to close, and would indeed do so but for their lease terms.

what will be interesting is what happens in the next two years or so.

Do you mean the space at the corner of 8th and 5th Ave in 11 Fifth? I moved to lower Fifth in 2007 and it was empty then. I don't know what used to be there. On 8th St. b/w Univ & B'way, I see the luggage store vacated a few weeks ago and that followed the frame store a couple months before that. But a new food joint is opening in the space that was Rickshaw Dumplings (I miss them). These are all retail spaces in the retail space in the rear of 40 East 9th Street I think. Also saw the Australian chocolate place on 8th street in the back of 30 E 9th closed--never understood who could afford $46/lb chocolates though--even at the market peak. And FWIW, by the time I got this neighborhood Metro Drug was pretty disgusting--run down, depressing, always out of a lot of stuff, sloppy shelves. I appreciate the negatives of chains, but Metro Drug didn't do much to draw business. And while I prefer CVS to Duane Reade, the DR at 8th St and B'way looks a lot better renovated.

"Do you mean the space at the corner of 8th and 5th Ave in 11 Fifth?"

That's the spot. My memory is fuzzy on what used to be there: medical or bank.

"Also saw the Australian chocolate place on 8th street in the back of 30 E 9th closed--never understood who could afford $46/lb chocolates though--even at the market peak"

This is exactly what I mean when I talk about businesses which rent at high numbers but are "real' because the business could never support the rent. And what's with all this Australian stuff these days? About ?6? months ago while wlaking to Odessa for my weekly brunch with my "brunch buddies" I passed an Australian Olive Oil store on East 9th between 1st and A and I was like "WTF? ? OMFG" all at once.

"what one must remember when one surveys the retail landscape is that in times like these many many more locations would LIKE to close, and would indeed do so but for their lease terms.

what will be interesting is what happens in the next two years or so."

This is what I see as a major issue with Chase/Wamu locations in Manahttan.

Once upon a time, a retail store owner could work reasonable hours, say 10-6, and close Sunday, god's day after all, and even close for a couple of weeks in the summer and hang a 'gone fish'n' sign in the window. Rents edged up, and store hours become longer, Sundays were no longer inviolable. For years chains stayed away from Manhattan because back then, they thought rents were too high for their pro formas. Once that myth was broken, possibly by the GAP, the flood was on. Some family retailers have survived because of their niche or service or ability to adapt but many more because they have old leases -- 10, 12 or more years old -- and as certain as the No.1 used to be the IRT local when the lease is up so is their business. In this climate, however, many, many landlords have reduced rents, assuming the reductions are temporary. Better some rent than no rent. Better an occupied space than a darkened one. Makes perfect economic sense. Other landlords won't cut the local retailer any slack, and either the retailer works only to pay the rent until the point they just shut down. Many local leases have personal guarantees behind them, though chasing a mom&pop in court is probably a fool's game. If in fact we are witnessing the end to easy money for this generation, and with all that implies down the food chain, retail rents will follow office rents and residential rents -- if the landlords (a) understand what they are seeing (b) are not so big that they can sit for months or years with empty spaces.

mlwest: when only one adult per household used to work, it was easy for the housewife to shop during the day. Now, with both working in most homes, businesses indeed stay open longer and on Sundays to accommodate hours buyers are able to shop--it isn't just high rents that might make them work longer hours. Indeed, if rents were higher in the past, staying open longer wouldn't have helped since in the 50s and 60s people didn't shop in the evenings or Sundays.

We do agree,though, on one thing: the absurdity of rigid LLs who would rather see a paying retailer vacate than re-negotiate a lease. How on earth it makes sense to see a space remain empty for months on end--or years!--is beyond me. In a recession no one is coming into the space. Why not join your tenant retailer in helping them fight to stay in business rather than create a vacancy? Maybe a LL on here can explain the logic.

I recently learned a new expression from a former attorney turned RE investor: "He is stuck in the cellar". It was used to describe old time NYC landlords who were used to the old model of rent stabilized and rent controlled tenants and under market commercial leases. For decades they clawed their way to the "top" by penny pinching and bargaining on EVERYTHING. I can't tell you home much time I have seen spent at closing of small apartment buildings over things like the adjustment for how much heating oil was left in storage and the purchaser would compensate the seller for, which inevitably ended with the buyer screaming "FINE. pump your sludge out!".

So this term is used to describe old timers who are used to nickel and diming everything, and can't "get themselves out of the cellar" and do deals based on the new economics of higher rents and better service, etc. this, a lot of times, fits for teh guys who hang on to get "their rent and terms" regardless that the place has remained empty forever.

Someone mentioned to me that some local businesses are "victims of their own success" in a way. Immigrants came here, started these businesses and worked atrocious schedules in order to have a better education, profession and life for their children. Fast forward a generation, the children are professionals living in the upscale Manhattan neighborhoods not serving them, and the parents want to retire when the lease is up. Job done..in many cases well...

"Look at the demographics: huge boom births interest in breastfeeding mothers having or wanting to return to work = breastpumps."

hey, anybody read or knows whether that huge boom in births went bust? i'm not seeing as many pregnant belies on the sidewalks as i used to (but do still see plenty of strollers). my own OBGYN went counter cyclical. now that work is light she's having her 1st baby.

Thank goodness. Too many children in Manhattan. It was really getting out of hand.

lol kyle, for a while there were babies about to pop out everywhere. do you see the same thing? maybe i'm wrong about this... but in a way i agree with the 1st comment (financially that is) "There’s never a good time to have a kid." on:

http://parenting.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/02/09/postponing-a-baby-in-this-recession/

"There’s never a good time to have a kid." Exactly. Which is why I can't understand why people keep doing it! All they do (at least the men I know) is go on to bitch about it endlessly for the next 18 years. Yeah, the baby thing got totally out of control. I haven't been to the UWS on a weekend for years because no matter where you go there are little humans doing disgusting or annoying things in otherwise civilized places.

People have children because they are bored. Maybe with a recession there is more to worry about and less boredom and thus less spawning.

I don't mind babies or children -- it's parents that I simply cannot abide.

i actually know a woman who told me she had a child because she ran out of new things to do.

horribly expensive hobby.

> i'm not denying that we're in a bad recession, but retail has held up pretty well.

Not when you look at the stats.

I do think you're underestimating the closures. A friend did a count on mad in the 60s this week and came up with 25% vacant. But, say thats an exaggeration, leave that one aside.

You think the places that already closed are the only victims?

What about the places whose sales are down 40%?

Pick up a copy of crains. This is par for the course these days. The number of restaurants reporting massive declines is pretty large. They can all be full, but they're not buying wine for instance, which kills the check.

And the stores, similar stories.

I don't think you can claim this is overblown if you don't know what's actually happening out there.

I'm shocked at the number of new restaurants opening this fall, per NYT recently. It's not something I follow regularly, so maybe the actual number is way way down from recent autumn openings; or maybe vacant storefronts make it easier, especially if the kitchen and dining room are mostly ready to go from the last failure.

Are there more restaurants opening than closing? I wonder if rents have falling enough to make economics much better under new terms. Nice place on 81 & 2nd. Smartly serves drinks, dinner, brunch, lunch and coffee/muffins etc. Its what DTUT would have been if it wasn't such shit.

i read awhile back that danny meyer was looking at possible new locations for the first time in a number of years. said it hadn't been viable recently. there is opportunity amid destruction, although i've heard that financing is more of a bitch for restaurant openings than other small businesses, so it can't be easy.

i've noticed the menus at many of the new places are quite a bit less expensive.

Afforementioned place - glasses of wine $6/$7 rather than $9/10 or more. Yes.

Definitely going cheaper.

Crain's noted a lot of the places changing over a side room or such to a cheaper cafe. A lot of the new openings also seem to be scaled-down affairs.

I definitely figure rents coming down this dramatically makes that more possible, but thats not what I'd consider a positive market sign, any more than somebody thrilled to be getting the apartment for 50% off the last sale price would be a sign of a great RE market.

The restaurants and/or stores that were open in good times and now in bad, that Crain's covers (some individual, some in category overviews) seem to all be telling a similar tale of significantly declining revenues.

If everything fills up again, and they're all 99c stores, I wouldn't exactly call that a great sign.

I thought I'd check in on this thread, which I thought was pretty interesting (and unusually civil as SE discussions go!) at the time. My own unscientific observation is that storefront vacancies seem to be close to stable on a net basis, maybe some slight increases in recent months, but not significant in most areas and certainly nothing like the first half of the year. Madison in the 60s through 80s may be a bit worse, but other than that my sense from walking around and looking out of cab windows is that there are a few new vacancies that are roughly offset by the few new openings somewhere else.

What do others think? Even better, what actualy data does anyone have? I admit that I have none but what my eyes see.

I would add that next winter/spring (let's say Feb-Mar for the sake of argument) will be an interesting check-in point on the status of retail vacancies. There must be stores out there whose survival will turn on the outcome of the current holiday shopping season.

I've noticed that side street non-prime is very vacant.

I've seen a few smaller, fairly marginal businesses go under, but I've been rather surprised by the resilience I see downtown. When I am back in the East Village, however, it's a different story, still a lot of vacant storefronts.

sidelinesitter; i haven't looked at any numbers or done any hard research on this, but my head is telling me that what I've seen is that while the number of vacancies seems to be somewhat stable, we are seeing a tremendous turnover of the same storefronts over and over again. And remember with retail, between the time vacant, the 'free rent' period and the broker's fee, it can often ad up to close to a year's worth of income for the owner. So *IF* my gut feeling is what is actually happening, the "stability" of the number of vacant retail space isn't as good an indication of the "health" of the retail market as it might seem to be.

____________________

David Goldsmith
DG Neary Realty

I only know a few neighborhoods well, in terms of retail. I'd say the East Village (non alphabet-city, which is showing the turnover patterns 30yrs discusses) is deteriorating slightly. More open store fronts. Flatiron is relatively the same, side streets have long vacancy periods (but they finally rented the old Princeton Ski Shop space). Gramercy seems to have a first wave of new things coming in, but bizarre stores, a couple of spas even while existing ones go under. Where i've really been seeing what 30yrs is discussing is the East Side above Murray Hill. New stores are moving in, but lasting a year or less. i've also been noticing unusual vacancies, long-extant delis, barbers, dry cleaners, and a true sign of the apocolypse, nail salons.

I still see alot of the same empty places on 86 street from madison all the way over to york.

The Museum of Arts and Design opened a "POP-UP" store on 3rd and 74th recently. A very special store with beautiful items...and it brings a little MAD from the west side to the UES. It's actually a great place for unique Holiday gifts. It literally POPPED-UP out of nowhere. They are "giving the area a try" to see how they do, and have presumably negotiated a time-limited lease in an otherwise empty storefront. They have a guestbook in which most are writing "please stay".

POP-UP stores may surely be an emerging trend in this market, and it presents amazing opportunity for some. WHY, my favorite bartender, young as she may be, is opening her own business. One she admits would never happen, except for the low rent.

what's more depressing is the stores that eventually replace what went under; the continuing mallification of manhattan.

I wouldn't say that the MOMA store "popped" out of nowhere. Kate's Paperie reduced their space by half and MOMA "popped" into the half that was left vacant. Will have to see what happens with the space after the holidays.

not a MoMA store...a MAD store. Nonetheless, it is a time limited appearance.
One day it wasn't there, and soon it won't be there again.

My wife and I were out and about today and what we saw had me thinking about this thread. I may not be getting out much, but today I was astounded at how many empty store fronts there were while we were out on Bleeker St, Sullivan St, generally high pedestrian areas.

Can any Street Easier tell me what a "normal" amount of empty storefronts is or direct me to relevant stats? There was a stretch at one point with 6 vacant storefronts in two blocks which just seemed over the top.

we also finally made it to the highline which was actually pretty nifty!

thanks

Ive seen a couple smaller ones fill up in the UES, but there are still some real large emty ones on 86th street..been that way almost 2 years now.

Thanks for the observations

The other interesting thing was that there were quite a few "new" places with placards promising that they were "opening soon". The curious part about that was that many of these were stores which said they were moving from one location to another. I have to think there is some degree of businesses moving to capture a lower rent, but can't say for sure.

Lecker - re: not getting out much but then thinking of this thread when you do and see significant vacanies, well that's me too. I was recently in a few areas that I don't see often and was taken aback (2 cases) and stunned (the other case) by the amount of retail vacancy.

Taken aback: 5th Ave south of 42nd (to, say, 34th) has a number of large vacancies, only one of which I recall having been there a long time.

Taken aback: I was in Chinatown a couple of weeks ago for the first time in a while and I was surprised at how many empty storefronts there were - not the larger spaces on prime corners along Canal, but many small ones on streets further east near and north of the bridge. While a lot of Chinatown businesses are not high end by any means, I always thought of the neighborhood as bustling and very commercial, with a business of some sort operating out of almost any available space. Not at the moment

Stunned: Lafayette south of Astor Place, and really stretches of Lafayette all the way down to Canal. Massive vacancies. I literally could not believe what I was seeing as I walked up from Canal to Astor Place.

Unfortunately I can only report on a point in time as I haven't been watching these areas through the downturn. If anyone has the time-lapse view to give a sense of trend, how long vacancies have been lingering, etc. that would be very interesting.

Where I do have the view through time, my impression is that 1st and 3rd Avenues in the 60s to 80s are about the same as a year ago on a net basis. 3rd was and is a bit better off than 1st on an absolute baiss, whihc should not be a surprise. I think 2nd in the 70s to 90s is worse off than a year ago, probably due to the ongoing street level disruption from subway construction. 86th east of Lex that gets so much attention in discussions of retail vacanices is better in the last year (although still not great), with Shake Shack opening up, Fairway coming to the old Circuit City space and small spaces being taken up in the Brompton and a restaurant just across the street.

Yeah, I was blown away a couple years back, and then I forgot about it, but in the last few weeks I feel like I've been seeing more of it. The Gracious Home thing might be affecting that as well.

second ave is the ghost town of the UES.
it's getting worse as peeps consciously or non consciously avoid walking on second.
the reason that 1st and 3rd are not so bad is because of the very displacement.
the retail conditions of the UES are horrible. Most are shopping outside the hood for nonperishables.
second ave will most likely sufferer the fate of Columbus ave which was once the heart of the UWS, now it's a shadow of it's former 80's self.

> the reason that 1st and 3rd are not so bad is because of the very displacement.

good point. 2nd ave is horrific.

I was the original poster and my opinion is that the upper east side is worse than it was 6 months ago which is worse than a year ago. Things are getting worse in terms of vacancies overall. The new stores coming in seem pointless and redundant to me in that the new bagel/pannini store is going to put the old one on the same block out of business. Net result = no new creation.

> How many more store/restuarant closings until people reanalyze the cost of living here?

I'd say 80% would have to evaporate before people rethink NYC.
As another poster said, it's not about the retail, it's about the social aspect.

My latest example of going by an area that I don't see often and being taken aback the the amount of retail vacancy is 1st Avenue from just north of the UN to the 59th Street bridge. 1st Ave on the UES isn't great (quite a bit of vacancy north of 79th, for example), but south of 59th is just a train wreck.

On my own block, there were tons of churning throughout the go-go years. I'd say it stabilized over the summer (at the low point). Two stores just closed, but one is opening this weekend, another opened last week. Still about 25% empty.

going back to the comment on less babies being born:

The 2009 birth rate also set a record: lowest in a century.
"It's a good-sized decline for one year. Every month is showing a decline from the year before," said Stephanie Ventura, the demographer who oversaw the report.
The birth rate, which takes into account changes in the population, fell to 13.5 births for every 1,000 people last year. That's down from 14.3 in 2007 and way down from 30 in 1909, when it was common for people to have big families.
"It doesn't matter how you look at it - fertility has declined," Ventura said.
The situation is a striking turnabout from 2007, when more babies were born in the United States than any other year in the nation's history. The recession began that fall, dragging stocks, jobs and births down.

Last spring's report, on births in 2008, showed an overall drop but a surprising rise in births to women over 40, who may have felt they were running out of time to have children and didn't want to delay despite the bad economy.

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