Consumers still deleveraging.

credit contraction = deflation

this is where inflationists get lost a bit, especially with gold nearing 1000. inflation is not around the corner. working on a piece about how deflation will negate extreme inflationists policies. need an intern or something.

Before you get an intern, UD, make sure you have a good definition of inflation.

i already do.

and it involves an expansion of credit

Urbandigs. Why can't we have weak u.s. consumer & inflation?

Foreigners don't want our bonds or currency. We're printing too many dollars. To the extent we import, the weak u.s. consumer is not the total picture. Saw this earlier...

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/09/3-signs-that-china-is-moving-out-of.html

4 Signs that China is Moving Out of the Dollar

There are 3 recent signs that China is moving out of the dollar.

First, in June, China was a net seller of U.S. Treasury bonds (and shorter term notes) for the first time ever. As Mike Larson writes:

A few days ago, the U.S. Treasury Department revealed that China actually REDUCED its note and bond holdings by $25 billion in June. Although China did NOT sell shorter-term Treasury bills — and isn’t expected to — it’s still the largest amount of Treasuries China has ever sold in a single month.
Second, China will issue a non-Dollar denominated Renminbi bond sale on September 28th (6 Billion Renminbi worth).

Third, China has agreed to purchase $5o billion dollars worth of IMF bonds (denominated in the IMF Special Drawing Rights currency).

And fourth, the former vice-chairman of China's Politburo Standing Committee (the highest and most powerful decision-making body in China) - Cheng Siwei - recently said:

We will diversify incremental reserves into euros, yen, and other currencies. Gold is definitely an alternative, but when we buy, the price goes up. We have to do it carefully so as not to stimulate the markets.

As Edward Harrison correctly notes:

To be sure, there are other voices in Chinese officialdom that are striking a less alarmist tone. One cannot rely on the words of one Chinese official to represent policy makers in China. And Cheng never said the Chinese are now actively diversifying away from the U.S. dollar. Nevertheless, Chinese officials have been talking along this dollar bearish line for months now and I tend to believe their words will lead to action.

That is, at a minimum, bullish for Gold and bearish for the U.S. Dollar.

that is exactly what we will have. the damaging form of inflation. stagflation. inflation will show up in the form of higher food, energy, rates, taxes, health care, commodities, etc..the stuff we need to live on daily. it will crunch consumer wallets and shrink corporate profit margins. it will first show up in the unintended consequence form. and unfortunately, unemployment will be peaking and debts still way high at the same time. i just think there will be a more drawn out second half to this crisis AFTER the initial burst of stimulus wears off.

i have been, and continue to be bullish on gold as the trade is a worldwide anti-fiat currency trade.

I want to invest in commodity ETF'S, but haven't been able to evaluate the "issuer risk" You really are buying a credit. Example the Jim Rogers ETF..

whats wrong with Jim Rogers etf ? be warned that Im a big fan if JR

"Im a big fan if JR"

...although surely not as big a fan as JR is of himself

the ETF is an obligation of AB Svensk...Issuer risk, counter-party risk...

Id read the fine print there. im pretty sure all the assets are held in a trust

rs, kind of like you had some info about the housing futures market?

http://elementsetn.com/pdfs/ETN%20Prospectus-%20RICI%20M-%20SEK.pdf

Prospectus is very clear , the cite the credit worthiness of SEK as a risk. Risk may be low, but not zero.

thats not an etf though..thats a kind of trust. doesnt he have a normal etf ?

Marco, an unleveraged ETF makes sense. Especially since the assets are segregated.
But I imagine it would be difficult to create such a fund which is probably
why they created one synthetically via a structured note.