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Man, stocks are up again! There has to be a pullback coming.

Started by steveF
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2319
Member since: Mar 2008
Discussion about
Even though all the financial data has been overwhemingly positive, I don't think we can keep this momentum going. Human nature will force a pullback. Any thoughts?
Response by KeithB
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 976
Member since: Aug 2009

No thoughts, just some regrets.lol. When you look at the inflows into equities it seems this market is on fire with little help from the little guy(retail). I don't have a clue, me and my cash are comfortably numb.

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Response by steveF
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2319
Member since: Mar 2008

Keith, within this past year fortunes were lost and fortunes were made.

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Response by samadams
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 592
Member since: Jul 2009

I told my guy to have me in 80 percent cash before the market goes back under 1000. I dont really care if I miss some rally, I just want my money out of this for now

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Response by urbandigs
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 3629
Member since: Jan 2006

QE ends in a few weeks I think and there is like 17Bln left to buy treasuries. Some traders are wondering about the direct effect of debt monetization and equity rally. Just pt your stop losses in!

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Response by Mjh1962
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 149
Member since: Dec 2008

what goes up inevitabley comes down. I think mid and long term things look good, but there is always a pullback. I am usually wrong in my timing 100% of the time though :-) If I sell it keeps going higher, if I dont we get a pullback!

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Response by falcogold1
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 4159
Member since: Sep 2008

I bailed yesterday. Complete equity cash out. I'm not saying it's not going to break 10,000...just to much of a nail biter for little me. I'm a little nervous. If youre still in I would keep my finger on the button.

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Response by BSexposer
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1009
Member since: Oct 2008

You guys crack me up - I was all in 100% equities in February and haven't sold a thing since then. Just keep it simple - buy outstanding businesses and hold permanently. Trying to time the market is for suckers. Cheers!

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Response by nyc10023
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 7614
Member since: Nov 2008

I suck at market timing. Lost a bunch when I sold in October, then lost a ton when I shorted. My paper losses are staggering.

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Response by aboutready
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007

the lawyers among us are forced to limit themselves to mutual funds (for equities). i think many of the bankers are as well.

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Response by BSexposer
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1009
Member since: Oct 2008

Sure ya did, nyc (wink wink).

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Response by samadams
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 592
Member since: Jul 2009

aboutready there are ways around that you know?

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Response by BSexposer
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1009
Member since: Oct 2008

From Buffett's 1987 shareholder letter - FYI, he said this week that he's buying equities:

"We really don't see many fundamental differences between the
purchase of a controlled business and the purchase of marketable
holdings such as these. In each case we try to buy into
businesses with favorable long-term economics. Our goal is to
find an outstanding business at a sensible price, not a mediocre
business at a bargain price. Charlie and I have found that
making silk purses out of silk is the best that we can do; with
sow's ears, we fail...

The disadvantages of owning marketable securities are
sometimes offset by a huge advantage: Occasionally the stock
market offers us the chance to buy non-controlling pieces of
extraordinary businesses at truly ridiculous prices -
dramatically below those commanded in negotiated transactions
that transfer control. For example, we purchased our Washington
Post stock in 1973 at $5.63 per share, and per-share operating
earnings in 1987 after taxes were $10.30. Similarly, Our GEICO
stock was purchased in 1976, 1979 and 1980 at an average of $6.67
per share, and after-tax operating earnings per share last year
were $9.01. In cases such as these, Mr. Market has proven to be a
mighty good friend."

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Response by BSexposer
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1009
Member since: Oct 2008

Warren Buffett to Fortune: "We're Buying Stocks"
Published: Tuesday, 15 Sep 2009 | 10:41 PM ET Text Size By: Alex Crippen
Executive Producer


Amy Graves: WireImage
Warren Buffett and Fortune's Carol Loomis at the magazine's Most Powerful Women Summit in Carlsbad, California
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Warren Buffett says he's buying stocks, but it's not because he thinks the recession is ending.

In a video interview with CNNMoney.com's Poppy Harlow posted on the Fortune website today, Buffett is asked if he agrees with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's comment this morning that the recession is probably over, from a technical standpoint.

"I don't know the answer to that ... and I don't worry about it too much. We're buying stocks this morning, I can tell you that. I'm not buying them based on whether we're coming out of the recession in three months or six months or a year. I'm buying them because I think we're getting good value over time. And I think it is a mistake for investors to focus on business forecasts instead of looking at the intrinsic value of the business."

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Response by Squid
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1399
Member since: Sep 2008

I started getting nervous in Nov 07 so sold off a considerable portion of my portfolio. Not all, but enough to prevent devastating losses during last year's meltdown. Now I'm holding off on getting back in (save a couple of shorter-term trades here and there) until the dust settles a bit--I think we still have a way to go on that front.

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Response by BSexposer
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1009
Member since: Oct 2008

I know you guys will not listen to me - just like 8 weeks ago when I tried to convince you all - same ole story. Well, don't say I didn't try.

Good luck

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Response by ericho75
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1743
Member since: Feb 2009

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/14681-gold-up-dollar-down-inflation-up-another-market-meltdown-soon

"Mark this post...

We're marking a short term top here at 1067-1070 s&p. Next big move for s&pee should be down, target: 975.
Bonds are screaming at us...NOT SO FAST BUDDY.

Trade safe.
Hold on tight to your properties and....god speed my friends."

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Response by w67thstreet
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008

Sexy, you know how many people bought in march and sold yesterday vetting 60% profit, the answer noone. Do you how many peoPle rode this baby down 70% and is now now now only down 20%, all of us. Flmao.

Falco me too 100% cash. For the rest, take the risk get the reward. I just don't think most people 'understands' the risk, just like NYC re in 2007..... got ballz of steel and patience aplenty.

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Response by ericho75
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1743
Member since: Feb 2009

"got ballz of steel"

...or tits of steel if you're a big woman like AR.

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Response by falcogold1
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 4159
Member since: Sep 2008

Not about timing?
what planet do you live on?
Everthing is about timing....everything!
Don't time the market? Then why look at the numbers?
Buy blindly and sell when you want something material.
How a fool and his money ever got together in the first place amazes me.
So, I should not waste my time evaluating RE and the delta associated with price and time?
Let me guess, you bought your home in Q2 2007 and your hot to sell it today...screw timing.
Save that worthless advice for your kids.

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Response by falcogold1
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 4159
Member since: Sep 2008

ericho,
little too personal, don't you think?

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Response by ericho75
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1743
Member since: Feb 2009

AR and I go wayyy back. She knows i'm just teasing her.

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Response by BSexposer
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1009
Member since: Oct 2008

Thanks guys - you all just proved my point. Works every time. Just remember - each of you is much smarter than Buffett when it comes to investing. All he did was build a $30 billion fortune from scratch in the field - and you all have done...well, nothing. LMAO!!!

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Response by BSexposer
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1009
Member since: Oct 2008

'got ballz of steel and patience aplenty'

See you much higher, dude - people with "ballz" went all in this Spring. People without "ballz" sat on the sidelines in cash. Over and out.

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Response by samadams
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 592
Member since: Jul 2009

Bsex u such a playa, just spill the Crystal and holla Yo name

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Response by BSexposer
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1009
Member since: Oct 2008

"I told my guy to have me in 80 percent cash before the market goes back under 1000. I dont really care if I miss some rally, I just want my money out of this for now"

You don't know what you are doing, bro. Buy and index fund and faggetaboutit. Whatever, a fool and his $$$...

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Response by BSexposer
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1009
Member since: Oct 2008

Just remember, folks, cash = trash. That's how it's always been - and how it'll always be. Later.

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Response by w67thstreet
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008

Cash = trash, really? I tried to pay my kids tuition with enron stock, my 1 bdrm coop at 67 th for $800k, or my 30 footer for $100k, the trustees wrote a nice letter saying we'd like 'mkt value' and always cash is king.

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Response by w67thstreet
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008

Which bucket shop do you work in sexy? Just like borkers saying a 'home' is better than (fill in pls), equity mkt is better than (fill in your bs sexy).

If every signgle one of us passed stocks around and paid for all our salad shooters with these 'paper' gains oh where oh where would we end up? F'n 1st yr bucket shop worker.

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Response by BSexposer
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1009
Member since: Oct 2008

Your comments speak volumes about you, w67th. I'd hate to go through my life being such an arrogant, smug know-it-all d-bag. Does anybody you know actually like you?

Cheers - I'll check back in another 9 weeks.

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Response by samadams
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 592
Member since: Jul 2009

Bsex be sure to load up on IYR like Cramers says! You are going to be the next Warren B.

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Response by Ubottom
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 740
Member since: Apr 2009

You don't know what you are doing, bro. Buy and index fund and faggetaboutit. Whatever, a fool and his $$$...

see arrogance smugness

bsex, did you pass the series 7 the 4th time you took it? last year?

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Response by BSexposer
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1009
Member since: Oct 2008

"You are going to be the next Warren B."

No, there will only be one Warren B - that's why I do what he says (while most people mock him, doubt him, call him old, "lost his touch", etc.)

"see arrogance smugness"

OK - maybe I'm a little arrogant - BECAUSE I WAS RIGHT - please excuse it. As for w67th - not only is he ARROGANT, but he was also 100% DEAD WRONG - which makes his arrogance doubly shameful.

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Response by BSexposer
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1009
Member since: Oct 2008

FWIW, I don't work in a "bucket shop", I'm not in the securities industry, etc. I simply chose to put all my savings into US equities after Buffett advised doing so. And I've studied Buffett extensively, so I try to copy his investing style. It's worked so far - maybe it could work for you too, if you can get past your anger...

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Response by BSexposer
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1009
Member since: Oct 2008

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters.html

This is all you need - the rest is just noise. Peace.

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Response by samadams
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 592
Member since: Jul 2009

play on playa, play on

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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

> Keith, within this past year fortunes were lost and fortunes were made.

Too bad you were on the wrong side of things, SteveF, huh?

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Response by Ubottom
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 740
Member since: Apr 2009

so start saving up so you can buy spome berkshire b shares---then you can spare us the blather

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Response by BSexposer
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1009
Member since: Oct 2008

"so start saving up so you can buy spome berkshire b shares---then you can spare us the blather"

I already own 20 B shares - it's one of the holdings I picked up in February.

Yes, everything I've said today and 9 weeks ago was "blather" - thanks for clearing that up. No doubt it will all be lost on you, friend.

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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008

So much for Steve's fortune...

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