3rd Quarter numbers are in

Essentially as expected: Sales up, prices down except for new developments as folks closed on condos where entered contract pre-Lehman. While the brokers will hype that sales volume is up 45.6% over 2Q09, the reality is sales have been dropping y-o-y for seven straight periods (1Q08 -34.3%; 2Q08 -21.8%; 3Q08 -24.1%; 4Q08 -9.4%; 1Q09 -47.6%; 2Q09 -50.3%; 3Q09 -16.0%). So, even with the counter-seasonal uptick in sales in 3Q09 it is still 16% lower than last year. Median prices of co-op resales (78% market share) have seen a full year of y-o-y declines (4Q08 -3.6%; 1Q09 -20.8%; 2Q09 -25.6%; 3Q09 -8.0%). Average price-per-square-foot is now below $1,000.

angler7,

Thanks for the data. Very insightful! May I ask where you get this data from?

Miller Samuels = Douglas Elliman reports.

These articles always try and sugar coat how bad things are. The easiest way that do it is by ONLY mentioning how from the market has declined from "last year." WHO CARES that we're 13% lower than the same time last year? What EVERYONE wants to know is how far off we are from the top. They don't give us this number because they know that the average reader of the story will see the 13% number and say "Oh things here aren't so bad, we're only down 13% -our market here is much better than everywhere else."

Does anyone have the real number that everyone wants? How far are we from the top?
Miller continues to lose credibility with me.

""For New York, the worst is over," said Dottie Herman, president and CEO of the city's largest residential brokerage, Prudential Douglas Elliman."

BUY NOW OR BE PRICED OUT FOREVER!

On an on-going basis, y-o-y is a decent way to track trends. I care that the market is trending downwards. If you don't trust broker spin and media parroting then do a little legwork. Jonathan Miller has all the information on his site if you need to get a sense of peak-to-now. Just pick your metric:

2Q08 Avg ppsf $1,322
3Q09 Avg ppsf $ 996
-24.6%

2Q08 Median Co-op Resale $975,000
3Q09 Median Co-op Resale $750,000
-23.1%

admittedly i am lazy

what was the psf for 2007?

can one glean a peak psf month from this data?

stevejhx - exactly, but it's such a cliche at this point, let's try packaging it a bit more artfully for a change of pace.

Dateline 10/02/39
The Afterlife

Reporters, quite accustomed to the conditions because of the economic foibles of their own trade, managed to obtain an interview with Dottie Herman in her new locale. Paying her debt for numerous white lies uttered during her career, she stayed true to her pitch.

"For New York, the worst is over," said Dottie Herman, (former) president and CEO of the city's largest residential brokerage, Prudential Douglas Elliman.

"I don't think you're going to see any more significant drops," Herman said.

"The weather is very warm here in the winter so everyone wants in. Buy now or be priced out forever," Ms. Herman was quoted as saying.

Bernie Madoff, who was also interviewed, says financing is available...

The data is provided quarterly, though I'm certain JM tracks this stuff on a more granular level. I haven't seen a represenation for a peak month, but I'm guessing it occured somewhere in the first-half of 2008.

2007 avg ppsf quarterly:

1Q07 $1,070
2Q07 $1,099
3Q07 $1,144
4Q07 $1,180

thx much angler

I'll acknowledge ignorance of the market segments served by the various residential brokerages listed in the report that began this thread.

Working on the assumption that the low-end of the Manhattan RE market is out-performing the high-end, would it be safe to assume
- looking at the smaller y-o-y drops in Elliman's numbers (10.6 & 8.4) vis-a-vis Corcoran's (16 & 18) -
that Elliman traditionally sells more lower-end properties than Corcoran?

I'm trying to get a handle on the disparity in the numbers. TIA

That's an interesting question. I for one haven't tracked other brokerage numbers since settling on the Miller/Elliman figures. Urbandigs, JM, or other tapped-in brokers care to comment?

Peak month was 2Q2008.

So I see Manhattan coop prices down about 20% from peak and 5% from 2Q2009. (I prefer the ppsf metric.)

Seems like pretty steady erosion with three bedroom and more apartments leading the decline.

This ain't over.

I think we have at least another 20% to go.

Sisyphean: Excellent point. Must be a tough period for Sotheby's, Gumley, BHS-Cave and such. At 2009 transaction volumes, their current inventory will last well into the Clinton Administration. Chelsea Clinton, that is.

StreetEasy just put up their report:
http://docs.streeteasy.com/market_reports/2009Q3_Report.pdf

Really really, lower end 1bdrm $1.2mm holding up well whereas 2bdrm $2mm units are being krushed? Pls you lemmings play the math in your head for awhile. $2mm drops 30% in a year $1.4mm, what happens to the 1bdrm buyer in 9/09. Yes they are completely and utterly under smegma. Bwtf, I and a bunch of us said the lemmings that got $ burning a hold in their unicorn purse, the $8k tax credit and timmy's spread eagle work on interest rates will go where lemmings always go. Wait till the real prime mess in 12 months.

Oh I coulda had a whole another bathroom and bedroom for $200k. Oh well, you'll make it up in Vegas!!

Me no speakie enligsh. Holy crap my 5 th grade English teacher is not sleeping well in her sutton place home.

Jonathan Miller is in an awkward position.

He is, indeed, a well regarded real estate expert with a well earned reputation for calling it like he sees it.

But he is also dependent upon the real estate industry for his revenues.

In short, he walks a tightrope. Generally pretty successfully. But sometimes you do have to read between the lines.

Re. sales volumes, Streeteasy report breaks down the volumes by category on Page 7:

New Developments +27.5% QoQ and -64.1% YoY (631 units vs. 495 and 1,861)
Condo resale volumes +69.5% QoQ and +6.0% YoY (878 units vs. 518 and 828)
Co-op resale volumes +79.1% QoQ and +6.1% YoY (1,834 units vs. 1,024 and 1,729)

TOTAL +63.2% QoQ and -24.3% YoY (3,343 units vs. 2,037 and 4,418)

Is the divergence between New Devs vs. Resale trends meaningful on a YoY basis? Thoughts / Implications here? TIA

go eight one--love the chelsea...clinton...giggle

well, here is what he said...

"But Jonathan Miller, president of an appraisal company Miller Samuel, says Manhattan's still going to see prices slip over the next two to three years.

MILLER: fundamentally we're still dealing with an economy with high unemployment, and a large loss of high wage earners. and a lot of new development housing stock. that's why I don't think we're at a bottom.

REPORTER: And Miller says it's still very tough to get a mortgage, with banks requiring 20 and 30 percent down. What fueled the summer rush, he says, was low interest rates, the federal tax credit and buyers more confident after seeing stock prices start to rise again. For WNYC, I'm Lisa Chow.
"

also, I figured this was pretty important...

"average Manhattan price-per-square-foot has dropped below $1,000/sf"