one Corcoran broker reported having six contracts signed in the last week

Wonder if that broker was working in a new development? I have 2 contracts out in past 10 days, but I can't say that the market is on fire by any stretch.

Enough with the AIG type bonus nonsense NYC real estate transactions.

Stevejhx....why do you focus only on the last paragraph of the article, which in general is saying that the increased RE activity of the last 2 months or so seems to have tapered off in the last 2 weeks.

i have 2 contracts signed in past 3 weeks and 1 out and 2 other bids in negotiations, over 4M in signed deals. but I had a break of 4 weeks since last contract done. market is still active, but not like it was after adjustment completed itself in May or so. May, June, July had about 1100-1200 contracts signed a month...Sept/Oct, closer to 850-900. active yes, as active as the 3-4 months after prices finished adjusting, no. its all relative. Im sure market will muddle for a few more months until end of jan/feb...normal. yet it can be spun a number of ways when you look at any one agent's monthly production. For every agent that has 4 contracts signed in past 4 weeks, 10x more agents likely did 0 or only 1 deal.

Any sense as to what's happening to prices in the fourth quarter, Noah? Stabilization? Off another 5%?

stabilized..as far as I can see...so we had bid adjustment down based on price point, and then market priced OUT armageddon and priced in stabilization....so, if a classic 6 was trading down 28-33% in feb/march fear trades, perhaps now it is trading down around 20-25% or so from peak depending on quality/features unique to the property. exceptional features like river views or private terrace/fireplace, perhaps a bit less from peak.

Thanks!

its funny, because the perma bulls are declaring victory and once again telling people that they MISSED IT. first it was no adjustment in prices can occur, than it was only a small adjustment can occur because of buyers on sidelines willing to jump in if deals of 5% off come by, now its, 'see, we were right, you missed the time to buy'...amusing when you consider the bigger picture.

classic 6-7 buyers can still enjoy a nice 20-25% discount from peak, generally speaking. If a seller gets more, then consider the pricing strategy right or the uniqueness of any illiquid marketplace when 2 or more buyers get interested in one product in a reflation environment.

Digs: Any random thoughts on percent of Contracts turning into closed deals in current environment? 50%, 70% 90% ???

Steve: So the crux of the article is that luxury is trading 21% below 2007 prices. Is that the point you were trying to make?

great question...dont know but im sure i have the data on it. relative from past years, Im sure its a declining number between walk aways, board turndowns, and those who cant secure a loan lately. no specific data right now, sorry.

I'm just finding it humorous how realtors are spinning this, and based on a modest move in September have started jacking prices up again:

Real Estate for Sale In Manhattan
We found 190 listings where price changed less than 60 days ago price has increased
Median price: $848,000 Median size: 1,019 ft2 Median price per ft2: $936

Yup, lots of upward price movement, including one that couldn't sell for $5.8 million now being offered for $8 million.

I think they read anecdotal evidence of increased Wall Street bonuses so they went to work. Unfortunately those bonuses are not going to materialize as in the past, not even with Goldman, who - whether they admitted it or not - survived only on the largess of the government, which took over its counterparty risk by bailing out AIG. Had they not done that, Goldman would have failed, as well.

Yet inventory continues to rise, and auctions have begun in the outlying areas.

its simple: sell side optimism is outpacing the improvement in bids

we all now realtors who pitch a new listing have one huge tool in their arsenal - quoting a HIGH PRICE to the potential seller because they are the best, the best marketer, the best agent, and will procure the best price. Seller signs, traffic is light, 2 months later broker works on price cut. Its a proven business model and sellers love hearing that the market has improved and they can get a higher price for their property! add it together and here we are

UD as usual a voice of reason. I have also had 2 signed contracts in the lat few weeks another one was done in August. Also working with a number of good buyers, some of whom have submitted (unsuccessful) offers.

I may sound like a broken record, but quality, correctly priced, well located apartments are selling within 30-60 days of being listed.

There is an abundance of inventory of improperly priced, un-renovated units with say a poor exposure that I don't see selling anytime soon. It reminds me of the early 90's when such units simply had to be rented out...It seems many sellers are not discounting for needed renovations and many buyers don't seem to want to have to buy a place that needs a new kitchen and bath regardless of discounts. Just my obvservations of the moment.

UD, that's a good tactic but a bad strategy. Does wonders for your stable of listings, but makes listings unstable. The market freezes, sellers think their properties are worth way more than they are, and buyers are looking at what's out there and saying, "You're nuts."

The early 90's, KB, was a bad, bad time for real estate in Manhattan.

There are 4 properties in contract in my building (in the last 2 weeks), let's so how many actually close.

Prada, wait for the appraisals to come in.

Thankfully for appraisers, it's no longer fashionable to shoot the messenger.

"UD, that's a good tactic but a bad strategy"

exactly. I would adjustvery slightly, a 'very' good tactic in a commision based industry for brokers, and a bad strategy for the 'sellers' and 'buyers' who otherwise should be educated on where the market is trading. well, sellers really. buyers will bid what they want. yes, its real estate and every product is unique but sometimes its taken to an extreme

thanks for observations KeithB! I agree

Based on what I am seeing, appraisals are going lower with promise of even lower.
We are working on closing, but the appraisal has come in quite low (above our price but 30% below anything anyone expected -- 40% to 50% below peak), which is leading to chagrin at various levels.

Hmmm, what attracted me to this thread was that I misread it as

one-corcoran-broker-reported-having-SEX-contracts-signed-in-the-last-week