Crain's: NYC apartment sale prices surge

Wow sounds like a solid first quarter for the real estate market.

Well, howdy everybody! I'm the bid low guy! You know me -

"bid low, bid low, bid low.....

REPEAT

bid low, bid low, bid low....."

OOPS - I'm wrong again - nobody's listening to me! Listen to me! LISTEN TO ME!! LISTEN TO MEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Ha ha - REBNY. Great source. I am going to the open houses in "prime" Manhattan and I am seeing Little Black Arrows heading downward. Keep em coming.

The black arrows are from inflated prices of 2 months ago. They are misleading. Prices are in fact up 20% - or more - across the board. I NOTED THIS TWO WEEKS AGO.

Yeah I see what you mean. #4 is a bitter renter in a state of denial.

So funny these bitter renters. All they talk about is 'bid low' and 'little black arrows.'

Then when realistic stats come out that they don't like, they disavow the stats.

Man, who're the ones living in denial here?

I guess it's those who sit on the sidelines watching life pass them by, while they see others moving on with the ups AND the downs, but eventually always coming out ahead, while they're left behind never having participated at all.... what a sad, pathetic waste these whiners are.....

We can all find articles showing the market in Manhattan is up or down...the entire country is down but there will always be people who are in complete DENIAL!!!

It's disgusting in Manhattan. Open houses are packed and it seems as if there's no end in sight. I wanted to bid low.. I really did, but everyone was bidding over asking, so I had to as well!

#9 I don't know what open houses you went to (price) but the one bedroom apts I'm looking at the agents are telling me to make an offer...i'm just too nervous.

#10, I was looking at the Jr4 market in the UES.

I don't understand what people mean by "making money." I'm planning on buying an apartment to live in for minimum of 10 years...a one bedroom for approx. $700k...WHERE AM I MAKING MONEY WHEN I'M PUTTING DOWN 50%. AM I DOING SOMETHING WRONG??

In 10 years, you'll sell your place for 2 million and move to FL. That's where you make money. Jesus...

The market is all over the place - some up, some down - general uncertainty has prevailed for the past two years. Of course, REBNY wants the market to be up so agents can earn commissions. Duh!

CUT TO: REBNY members awaiting their tanning salon appointments, giggling over lightly-circulated Crains while ignoring FT, WSJ, Washington Post, Business Week, FORTUNE, Forbes sitting nearby.

This is a listing in 425 5th Avenue. The market is up, yeah, right.

05/26/2006 Listed in StreetEasy at $1,889,000

06/30/2006 Price decreased to $1,799,000

08/01/2006 Price decreased to $1,699,000

09/16/2006 Price decreased to $1,599,000

11/15/2006 Price decreased to $1,545,000

12/13/2006 Price decreased to $1,495,000

05/15/2007 Price decreased to $1,399,000

#15, REBNY relates solely to the NYC/Manhattan market, which is different than the rest of the country. The articles in WSJ, FT, etc relate to the rest of the country.

Not to say that Manhattan won't feel it, just that the drivers in this market are different. And the recent article in Forbes is bull***t (see related post on this site).

Speaking of the REBNY article, wasn't there another NYC firm that came out with a similar report last month? But the numbers in that report were questionable...I wonder how the REBNY numbers compare. Any thoughts?

#16, that unit was overpriced to begin with. The seller was obviously playing the market in May of 2006 and is now starting to bring it to market bearable levels. That's what you call an outlier.

#16 - so stupid. Pick one crappy overpriced property to make your point. I could go and pick one really nice property that SOLD ABOVE ask. Then you pick another crappy overpriced one. Then I pick another really nice property that sold above ask. And so on.

Proves NOTHING!

#10, go to millersamuel,com and download the q1 07 report for Manhattan. REBNY numbers compare q107 vs q106 and you can see those comps in the millersamuel report.

Numbers are basically flat.

1 BR everages are down though so you are seeing some weakness in that sector

#19, watch who you call stupid.

Let's look at the stats for this building:

14 active sales listings: $1,337 per ft² (avg)

40 previous sales listings: $1,526 per ft² (avg)

And the one that was just reduced is a good unit and it was reduced to just over $1100/sqft

So which directions are prices going in this nice new development?

The Little Black Arrows claim another one....

#16/#19/#22 - you are stupid.

Let's look at the stats for 415 Greenwich.

11 active sales listings, 7 of which were recently INCREASED.

30(+) listings in contract, 10(+) of which were INCREASED.

Average price per s.f., about $2,000, and increasing.

Little black arrows go UP!

So which way are prices going in this nice new development?

Which brings me back to my earlier point - you pick one crappy overpriced property to make your point. I could go and pick one really nice property that SOLD ABOVE ask to make my point. Then you pick another crappy overpriced one that is reducing prices. Then I pick another really nice property that is increasing prices. And so on.

Proves NOTHING! N-O-T-H-I-N-G!!!!!

IDIOTS buying in Manhattan.

It's Tokyo Part Deux. Just nowhere near AS STUPID thank God. Real estate in Tokyo at one point was worth more than the entire United States. And lemming IDIOTS kept buying thinking that prices ONLY go UP. They even had to create 'multi-generation' mortgages spanning over 50 yrs to make the monthly payments somewhat workable with people's incomes. Catch was, you had to prove you had children, and they had to sign with you... just in case you don't live for 50 yrs more.

Manhattan, hot on the heels of London. Both, faithfully following Tokyo's real estate market's eventual collapse.

YES! BUY that 1 bedroom for 1 million dollars!!!! Don't you see? It's a steal! It's really worth 10 million dollars!

Poor lemmings.

Yes, people here don't realize it, but the Tokyo real estate market is just starting to stabilize after 20 CONSECUTIVE YEARS OF PRICES GOING DOWN. The rest of Japan is still going down.

INSERT: NY POST cover: "THEY'RE HERE!"

Camera pans from tabloid cover to deserted street then tilts up to reveal what appears to be a deep, dark, whorling storm cloud, stretching to the horizon. Actually, it is a sea of LITTLE BLACK ARROWS, swirling over the NYC metro area. Silently, they begin to drop from the sky, plummeting toward $1m Murray Hill one-bedrooms with $1,500 monthlies. A single Little Black Arrow pierces an obese Sutton Place Corcoran listing, instantly shearing off $750,000 from the initial ask. Another wave quietly speeds toward Long Island City as tanned, shocked brokers watch with jaws agape.

The invasion, it appears, has begun.

Well, howdy everybody! I'm the Tokyo is New York guy! I'm the little black arrow guy!

OOPS - I'm wrong again - and again - and again - and again - and again - and I'm still a bitter, bitter renter

Nobody's listening to me! Listen to me! LISTEN TO ME!! LISTEN TO MEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It's time to sell if you own and aren't living there.

Actually, I AM a renter... just not bitter. Hahaaha... I don't go to bed at night worrying about that huge debt I need to pay. Boy oh boy, that must suck.

I'm just a young observer in the market who has never owned yet, and am sitting on $500,000 in liquid assets while renting. And yes, I do work for a Hedge Fund. And no, I'm not a trust fund kiddie. Perhaps that could be one of the reasons why I actually value the assets I've worked hard to accumulate and don't want to blow it on some stupidly overvalued apartments when the entire nation's housing market is very, very ill.

Once prices fall back in line with incomes/fundamentals and actually make some sense, I may re-evaluate the prospect of buying.

Until then, I'll continue to watch the nervous lemmings burying more and more into their HUGE bag of debt.

So many people like #29, waiting for the market to turn....but by that logic all of those people waiting will be hitting the market all at once, driving up prices. So where does that leave you?

Buy if it makes sense to you and you plan to be here for a few years, not based on some 'market fundamentals'. #29 if you ever bothered to hit the pavement and actually LOOK for places you'd see that there not a ton of inventory. Unless you're willing to walk 30 minutes to the subway, face a brick wall or buy into a coop with crappy financials. And even then....

#29, I am in agreement. I happily own, but need to buy a larger place. My financial analysis continues to show rents at the apartments I am looking is cheaper that buying and holding for 5 years. There are apartments for rent in building I am looking for $1.5M ($2000 taxes/cc's), but similar are for rent less than $4500. I love owning, but not more expensive than renting. I have never seen such a large spread b/t the rental/ownership model.

#29 - I just like to go to bed thinking about the massive amount of equity (the first $500,000 being ALL TAX FREE) that I've built up. Having no equity and pissing away your money month after month having no control over how much your rent goes up annually, whilst my monthly mortgage payment stays the same for the next thirty years - Boy oh Boy, that must suck.

I work at a hedge fund, too, junior, but have more money (no details - sorry). One can tell by your attitude that you've never owned - 'nuff said. I hope you're better at trying to time other markets, 'cause you're going to be renting a very long time, indeed.

#29 you must be young...ironic thing is that the key driver to crash the RE market is the job market (brought on by a sour economy). So folks like you who've saved up all this $$ will not be able to get a mortgage and no building will admit you so you'll have to move back to Kansas.

If you really wanted to by you could take a chunk of your savings for a down payment and minimize your mortgage, lock in a good rate and have your monthly payments fixed instead of being at the whim of a landlord. Then if there's an economic downturn at least you'd have an affordable roof over your head.

Oh, and those taxes....tsk tsk...

#32, #33 =brokers

#29 probably moved fairly recently from a nice cheap low-demand midwestern place and hasn't gotten over the sticker shock of the NY real estate market. His reaction would've been the same in 1991, when the market was at a temporary and short-lived low point.

Japan's long-lasting contraction is caused primarily by its massive depopulation, as younger people have one or no children, and immigration is near zero. New York and London, on the other hand, have had massive (often officially unreported) immigration. Immigrants are willing to live for a generation or two in relatively crowded situations, with five or more earners supporting the housing cost. They also tend to have three or four children, which will sustain London and New York real estate demand. The only thing that will tank those markets is a contraction in money supply, globally or locally. Think foreign investors shying away from USD or GBP government bonds, or a collapse in financial services and tourism. All possibilities, but none imminent, I'd say.

#33 here and I am NOT a broker

NYC prices have always been shocking but you must admint that the doubling or tripling of value in such a short period of time is somewhat breathtaking. I've been in NYC for a long time, am an owner, and I am sooooo suprised by the prices. (of course, on the one hane I'm happy too if they stay that way, but I wonder if we're not destroying what we love most about the city..diversity.)

#37, i agree, I am an owner and believe i am up 4x on my investment. I think I am shocked on the numbers as well. Esp when I cannot rent for close to the adjusted sale price.

#32 here - I directly TELL you #34 what industry I work in right in my post, and you STILL accuse me of of working in the real estate industry.

Interesting that anyone who disagrees with your pov MUST work in the real estate industry. WHh are you so threatened by people who are wealthy, able to make better financial decisions than you, and who aren't bitter renters like you?

Poor baby....

#39=unemployed broker

#32 here again- wow, why all the backlash? my point is that while I am a renter, I am not 'bitter'.

I can easily buy a nice 1-bed right now. I just choose NOT to and rent. AND... guess what? I'm not bitter about it!

And, #29, good for you! Glad that you also work for a Hedge Fund and make more than me. More power to you.

So, to sum it up:

1. I am young (late twenties)
2. I have saved up enough cash to buy a condo/coop and live comfortably in NYC
3. I am NOT from some mid-western area suffering from a sticker shock heart-attack. I am from London, and NYC housing is cheaper than back home, but not 'cheap' enough to make sense as far as the disparity between renting/owning and incomes go.
4. I choose NOT to buy and rent... and I'm NOT bitter about it! =)

Some people appear to be 'bitter' that I'm renting even though I'm not bitter! LOL!

BTW, to the person that wrote this:

"Japan's long-lasting contraction is caused primarily by its massive depopulation, as younger people have one or no children, and immigration is near zero"

What an incorrect assessment of history! To say that the *PRIMARY* cause of the long-lasting contraction is due to depopulation is grossly inaccurate. VERY VERY WRONG. It surely is a factor, but not the PRIMARY factor.

Haahaha... so anyway, I'm gonna continue to rent and pay the piddly monthly rent while I sit on my fat wad of cash/assets.

Cheers.

Woops, meant #29 here, not #32 as the post above says.

#32-34 and #37-#38 should take odds with #35-#36 over what #41 said. OK?

hey #41, read your post in 29 and then think about why the backlash.

#32 gave it all away by admitting he is British - clear to me why he is not buying - it would be almost unpatriotic for a Brit to actually invest in the US and he is probably not committed to staying in NY for long anyway - (just long enough to make some decent money). Also, he is talking like $500,000 in savings is something to "write home about". Anyone in his business can make that easily in NY and most his age have much more put away.

My thoughts exactly #45 - $500,000 is less than one bonus check for those of us who work for hedge funds and are good at what we do. He should be spending more time at work and less time "grand standing" about the specifics of his savings account on message boards!!

Brits are fundamentally cheap skates anyway!!!!! He has sat on his little wad of cash and missed out on the biggest real estate boom that any of us will witness in our lifetime. What a JERK!!!

I agree with 45 through 47 - I bought 16 months ago - 1BR UES for $589,000 and judging by recent sales in the building I am already up 24%. Not a bad return for someone who is not well versed in the art of investing!

I'm with the "little black arrow guy". Check out the listing at 880 Fifth Avenue - just reduced by $905,000!!!!! Still trading too high and it will sit for a while longer.

I thought little black arrows point up, and little red arrows point down . . . ?

you could be right............... still almost a million in a price reduction - thats a lot.

I'd like to see Ridley Scott's interpretation of Comment #26.

I just read a Money Magazine article saying the exact opposite. Prices are tanking everywhere, including NYC. You have to look at the source of the data.

....and what source does Money Magazine use as a basis for its analysis? Check out the post on the recent Forbes article, you'll see you can't believe everything you read.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/05/16/real_estate/home_inventory_growing/index.htm?postversion=2007051615

http://money.cnn.com/2007/05/14/real_estate/first_quarter_NAR_prices/index.htm?postversion=2007051514

http://money.cnn.com/2007/05/08/real_estate/home_prices_to_dip/index.htm?postversion=2007050816

Nuggit

#53, did you ACTUALLY read the article? It does NOT say the opposite, actually conveys the same thing that the Crain's article and everyone else - that NYC is different from the rest of the nation and that demand has held steady.

READ before you opine (see below) !!!!

________________________________________
From Money Mag:

"According to Jonathan Miller, of Miller Samuel, a real estate appraiser and consultant in New York, inventory in the metro area is fairly steady. It has risen modestly in suburban areas but dropped in town.

With inventory low, prices have continued to increase in Manhattan, bucking the national trend.

Even so, an ongoing building and co-op conversion boom is adding massive numbers of units to the island's housing stock So far, demand has kept pace with the added supply.

"If demand takes a breath, though," said Miller, "you could see inventory pile up quickly."

#57. You are so, so angry. Why is that?

Not angry, just don't like it when people misrepresent things.

So you are angry "when people misrepresent things" on a random chat board. I can recommend a good therapist.

Dude said "Not angry"....can't you read?

Another angry one. Anger management classes, anyone?

So if someone disagrees with you he's "angry"? Controlling-behavior management classes, anyone?

Love,
Anonymous

lol, #63

Heated, healthy debate does not equal anger!

lol, #64

#57 cites Lereah-in-training J. Miller and then second-sources "everyone else." Research so easy, a tanned caveman can do it.

lol, #67

The print version of money mag said the ny area is tanking as well. Not as much as overvalued florida and vegas, but it's still on a downswing.

lol, #69

69, what's the exact "tanking" quote from the print edition of Money?

so money mag sez different things in print than via web?

GRRRRRRR..... I'm ANGRY!!!

Another angry fella!

Number 69 NY area and Manhattan are different animals
Yes the burbs are going down, but what about Manhattan

amazing how much ink these topics provoke. Some basic level of anxiety about housing values seems to make people start reading their tea leaves. Get a grip, people, especially if you're already an owner. If you're in, you're in: live in it and like it, or sell it and move if you don't. Make a decision and stick with it. If you did your homework and bought a decent place, then in 5-7 years it's going to go up. Look at downtown: a cataclysmic event by any measure, and six years later ppf is higher than ever in Tribeca. Maybe a massive meltdown in China would take the edge of things, but it would literally take a global economic collapse on the order of the Great Depression for most of you to lose real money. I'm about to close in Tribeca with a 10-year horizon in view, and it's probably one of the best financial decisions I've made in my life. And if you rent long term, there's really no way to justify it financially. Three years, even five years, sure -- sock it away or burn it on your lifestyle and enjoy it. But beyond that there's no real reason not to buy if you can afford to, other than paranoia.

#75-- There certainly is a reason not to buy right now, namely outrageous pricing. the phenomena that has driven up pricing in this town, namely re-urbanization and the falling dollar will not last forever. Right now, many buyers (younger buyers mostly) are highly highly leveraged into their homes, to the tune of 50%+ net pay in housing costs. I make a good living and anything decent would run me 40% of my gross monthly wages. I will not live in a studio at 35 years old. This is what we call a pricing discrepancy. Renting is cheaper right now.

And the stock market isn't outrageously priced?

#76, where do you see a pricing discrepency? When I run the numbers for 1 BRs, I get that buying is cheaper.

Hi, does all this discussion confine itself only to manhattan or does it include Brooklyn, especially Park Slope, Brooklyn heights and its neighbours

Nuggit

Who is this Mr. Nuggit? Will he please get off the message boards?

Does anyone know why so many units have sold in 880 fifth avenue?

I would love to buy at 880 fifth avenue. The board is tough as nails. You need to have 4 times the purchase price in liquid assets after closing. I asked if I could have a cosigner/copurchaser and they said no. I kind of feel bad for people selling in that building, because of the amount of qualified buyers the board turns down.

whats so great about 880 Fifth?? I just looked at an apt.in there the other day and was not all that impressed with the building. Seem so large...........