in Japan in the 80's ..real estate values declined for 16 years after they had a bust just like ours...

I feel bad posting this now. its like running up the score. my bad

Uh huh, yeah, well....did they have Obama? Biden? Pelosi? Reid?

or barney frank?

So, what are you inferring.. it will be 32 years?

Another example of useless data. So Tokyo real estate values declined for 16 years, but they are still above NY real estate values. So what is the takeway from that?

Sushi Deluxe?

"So Tokyo real estate values declined for 16 years, but they are still above NY real estate values. So what is the takeway from that?"

Well, there are several. Among them:

- If they've fallen ridiculously for 16 yrs, they were uber-ridiculously overpriced 16 yrs ago. Prices must've been off the freaking charts in terms of divergance from mean price appreciation and all known affordibility ratios, going back to the Ashikaga shogunate (look it up). Anyone with any professional training in capital markets should've been able to recognize it. And yet, some fool probably got on an early, DOS-based, non-graphical predecessor of the web and posted "buy now or be priced out forever!".

- If prices have kept falling for 16 yrs but aren't as low as a clearly over-priced Manhattan, perhaps they are not done falling. Remember, Japan's population will likely halve in the next 50 yrs -- what do those demographics imply for housing demand?

- Why should Tokyo fall for 16 yrs and not be done yet, but NY is done falling after a few months?

I'm just sayin...

DP, I do not disagree at all. Nor unlike the passionate folks here do I agree that the future of the NYC market is so easily predicted. I was really just questioning whether there is any analogy to be drawn from the relative value proposition of a market that has been in a deep slump for 16 years (even while the rest of the industrialized world saw one of the largest economic expansions in history), seems to be emerging from it, yet still has prices that exceed prices here. Americans are used to real estate prices that, at least on a relative US dollar basis (admittedly probably not a great measure) are cheap compared to other financial capitals. So, is NYC over priced on based on values? Probably. But it likely has far less downside than, as you point out, an uber over-priced market, with a declining and aging population, and a questionable role in the global economy with the emergence of China. NY is still cheaper than most financial capitals, often by a lot. So, it remains to be seen whether there are any analogies to be drawn, or if there is a near-term or long-term downside bottom that will cause value investors to support prices here, or where that bottom is.

"Uh huh, yeah, well....did they have Obama? Biden? Pelosi? Reid?"

No. They had their own idiots from whose playbooks Obama, Biden, Pelosi and Reid are working.

NYC_sport: The U.S. also has a declining (if you exclude illegal immigration) and aging population, and a questionable role in the global economy with the emergence of China.

I think the U.S. is, at the turn of the 21st century, where the UK was at the turn of the 20th Century: We'll still have a civlilized and advanced country, but our economic, political, and military power will decline significantly. Our standard of living will erode as the socialists grab more power. In short, I think you'll find far better investment opportunities in Singapore and India and China, whether it be in real estate or financial investments.

marco_m
1 day ago
Its true..look it up. nighty night bulls

erm no its not, look it up..

Japan was a little different than here:

"At its height, in 1989, real estate in Tokyo sold for as much as $139,000 a square foot—more than 350 times as much as choice property in Manhattan. Such valuation made the land under the Imperial Palace in Tokyo notionally worth more than all the real estate in California."

http://www.vanityfair.com/online/politics/2009/02/what-was-lost-and-found-in-japans-lost-decade.html