nyc ADDED jobs in finance in September
Started by printer
about 16 years ago
Posts: 1219
Member since: Jan 2008
Discussion about
http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/11/17/new-york-sees-quick-rebound-on-wall-street/ so not only are the estimated 47k losses not happening (drop from '07 peak was 35,000), but now actually adding jobs. please, spin for me how this is bad for manhattan real estate.
if you really have to think about why there were jobs added in September i feel badly for you.
Spinning is for the bears.
This obviously isn't a negative for manhattan re... just too little, too late.
sorry, obviously meant spinning is for the bulls.
printer, you caught the article noting that we just had the worst month of the recession in terms of losing Manhattan jobs, right?
"This obviously isn't a negative for manhattan re... just too little, too late."
I'm not sure what you are trying to say about this? Too late? Okay, we can argue back and forth all day about how much things dropped, when was the exact peak and who was responsible, but this is certainly good news (for the economy).
It doesn't make everything better, but it's a little silly to say, "too little, too late" to anything good that happens.
The securities industry trade association doesn't think that the industry is adding jobs in NYC. See p.6 in this link: http://www.sifma.org/research/statistics/other/employment-NY-quarterly.pdf
NYC column for September 2009 is -0.1 thousands, or approx 100 jobs. Call it flat. It is interesting that in the previous years shown on the page, June and July were big up months (new hires out of school plus summer classes), August up a bit or down a bit depending on the year and September a big down month (summer classes go back to school?). This year, June and July were down and August down more (all of which is worse than in the past), while September was flat (which is much better than in the past). The pattern looks like weak new hiring and especially weak summer programs, with the lack of an early summer inflow reversing out with the lack of a September outflow.
Reduced new hire numbers will have an effect on rentals but only a secondary and lagged one on the purchase market. On a broader basis, it doesn't look as if finance is adding jobs, but similarly the monthly declines have fallen a lot since last fall through this spring, which makes the numbers in the Times link in printer's post - down 28,400 since October 2007, not expected to end up worse than 35,000 - look plausible. The SIFMA totals are down 27,400 since Oct 2007, so they are in the same ballpark as the state comptroller.
"please, spin for me how this is bad for manhattan real estate"
Per the original post, the state government expects Wall Street employment to fall further. It looks to me as if we are approaching the point where employment is flattish and presumably broadly neutral for Manhattan real estate (although some might argue that given high visible/shadow inventory even flat Wall Street employment is bearish for prices - this may be the "too little, too late" perspective), but until that time arrives isn't the better question, "please, spin for me how this is good for manhattan real estate". I do agree that where we are, or at least seem to be, now is better for RE than the alternative of 47,000 or whatever number of job losses.
Buy now or be priced out forever!
"Okay, we can argue back and forth all day about how much things dropped, when was the exact peak and who was responsible, but this is certainly good news (for the economy). "
Since when is lost jobs good for the economy?
And clearly you missed the article that we've lost more NYC than any month in a YEAR.