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Fair market value

Started by taipancpg
about 16 years ago
Posts: 9
Member since: Sep 2008
Discussion about
It seems many recent listings are trying to jump back to 2006 pricing. I have been looking to buy and am surprised by the unjustified enthusiasm in the market. Recent listings are priced 30-40% higher than recent published sale prices for extremely similar (same lines in same buildings) comps or even 1-2 years ago. Huh? What am I missing here? I understand sentiment influences pricing, but do the fundamentals add up? Are people just fishing? Is there real demand driving this seller euphoria? Will the market revert back to reality or is my reality not so?
Response by csn
about 16 years ago
Posts: 450
Member since: Dec 2007

The reality is what a willing seller and a willing buyer agree to as the price. Simple as that.

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Response by apt23
about 16 years ago
Posts: 2041
Member since: Jul 2009

I believe the market will revert to reality because in every other city where there was a similar bubble, the market reverted to affordable levels.

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Response by evnyc
about 16 years ago
Posts: 1844
Member since: Aug 2008

Those are the *smart* listings. Even smarter listings are pricing 2005 and back. I'm not really certain that "reality" and "new york housing" belong in the same sentence, but then I remain very confused about this market.

In the interest of name and shame, I present:
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/479782-condo-55-poplar-street-brooklyn-heights-brooklyn
You bought in '08. If the apartment three floors higher can't sell for $850, what makes you think you're going to command enough of a premium to break even on your purchase? Why even bother listing? It's a ground floor apartment (dark) on the fringe of a great area (but not exactly in the heart of things) trying to command a premium on bubble pricing. What is the point? But welcome to Brooklyn Heights.

Many sellers are having a very difficult time coming to terms with reality. However, sometimes I am WRONG. This could go into contract for 10% over and in this market I just wouldn't be surprised. Plenty of kool-aid left in the punch bowl in some quarters.

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Response by taipancpg
about 16 years ago
Posts: 9
Member since: Sep 2008

Thanks for the input. I just don't any catalyst to force prices down much. There really isn't much 'choice' supply offered. Frustrating....

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Response by apt23
about 16 years ago
Posts: 2041
Member since: Jul 2009

Catalyst -- Commercial developers can't service their debt. Lenders take it over and start selling for 50 ¢ on the dollar. All the inventory in the area that was pulled up on the coat tails of the big commercial residential buildings, will go down in equal measure. This has happened in every bubble city. It is just starting to happen in NY. A few small developers have already gone down.

plus - Billions of debt (700 billion by some accts) need to be re-equitized in the next 2 years. You have to assume a lot of that is in NYC - it would be interesting to know how much. So if they run out of foreign govts to invest in NY RE, prices will come down. And can't imagine sovereign funds will pay top dollar since everyone with debt will be desperate to off load it all.

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