Is it just me or has the market really turned?

What were the price points in Florida vs the price points in NYC. This is the only place we had $1.4mm one bed condos selling to 26 year old single males making $500k/year. This is the only place where there are tens of thousands of 24-30 year old single males making $500/year. There wont be as many 34 year old $1mm+ earners either. I am anxious to see how this whole thing plays out. Unless I am wrong and there are a ton of people making money like that in other industries, or finance snaps right back (in pay per person and numbers of persons).... These current buyers are bringing the money they made in 2004-2008. Thats not sustainable.

The way my mind works is that I like to find the one main thing. In this case, its the health of the banking industry, both from the demand side and financing side. Well arguably, you can never disentangle demand from the availability of financing. In this case, income is derived heavily from the same industry that provides financing.

Rhino, I agree with you that finance jobs have been such a main factor in NYC housing costs, but do you really think those days are gone forever? Record bonuses being announced again. Seems to me that means record profits, and record profits may mean new hires in 2010/2011.

Is it really a record? Is bofa for instance compared to Merrill and bofa combined?

New hires yes. More hires than 2006? No. Maybe never.

Okay, no argument, not more hires in 2010 than in 2006, but "this time things will never be the same as ever before" is something we've all heard after every Wall Street crash, and new firms will start up, then grow, merge, some of them die, etc. This was one doozy of a bubble, but this too shall pass.

Right. But it may take as long to regain peak as it will to see NASDAQ 5000 again. This is unusual in that it is both a cyclical and secular downturn in the finance industry. Or maybe more precisely a permenant change in growth rate.

mmarquez110, Sorry for the delay in posting. I understand how you feel about the somewhat limited housing opportunities available to young people such as yourself and your wife in today's market. Just two points. First, education plays a large part in raising people's expectations. My father attended Brooklyn College for three years (tuition was free then) before he was drafted and served in the Air Force. When he came home, he had to go to work and couldn't finish school. When he was 40 years old with a wife and four children, the department of the corporation he was working was disbanded and instead of taking a less prestigious in the company, he started a business in the same industry with another partner and a silent partner. He and my mother had saved $10,000 over the years and he needed the whole sum to start the business. I can't imagine putting myself in that same situation and my father was a very conservative man in most cases. Second, I'm much older than you and when I walk into an apartment worth $1,500,000 owned by a very young company obviously from family money, it seems unfair to me that I wasn't afforded the same start in life. I try to count my blessings and you seem to have a supportive wife and family, your health and a good education. So you are very lucky.

lobster- owned by a very young couple, sorry for the error

If the market has turned, why is every broker I've contacted in the last two days out of town (but coming back before Thanksgiving. Automated emails tell me to email another broker and then I get the same automated out of town from the forward. Others simply don't respond to emails or phone messages. Curious. Is this typical?

gaongaon: Good point. Some brokers are working hard to get specific deals done before the holidays. As far as I can tell, though, there isn't a great deal of midnight oil burning.

Hey, what about a quick email, saying, um, we may have a deal on this apt. Simple courtesy, a few finger strokes? SE still shows it available.

This too shall pass, yes. But finance doesnt need to ever be what it was in 2006-2008 again, because it never ever had been before.

PS: In good markets and bad, you can rest assured that real estate brokers are not the most dilgent class of workers.

"not the most diligent class"?

OMG. This year has been a horrible one for the real estate biz, and I would put my hours for this year up against any Wall Street guy's (I've been working steadily six or seven days a week with only two weeks off the entire year) only I have one-fifth the income to show for it.

That said, 2009 is trashed already. Nothing I show a buyer now is closing till January, so why not take a brief moment to rest before 2010?

I worked today, but from now on I'm on corporate hours: The Thanksgiving holiday starts Wednesday at 1 and continues through the weekend, and the week between Xmas and New Year's is non-existent.

ali r.
{downtown broker}

You are working 100 hours a week in a cubicle? Either way, as a whole, your peers have a bad name with good reason.

You need to amortize your income across cycles. There are no tears for you here.

Front_Porch, there are a ton of rentals listed as being immediately available. They're not being shown either. I also don't understand why everything is "immediately available". I need to give a month notice if I'm not renewing. Or maybe I don't?

Its called a bait and switch, a lazy broker or an empty apartment, or some combination.

and....show me someone on wall street who's response to business being down 80% is to take time off. hilarious.

Its a logic response actually...but pretending its hard work is absurb. Maybe thankless in tough markets, but not hard.

Call bullshit Ali. If I call you nite bf thanksgiving and say I'm flying out thurday nite and I will put in a bid if I like one of your units, you'd be there with the keys. Oh I don't have a buyer's broker.