Any value deals in UWS or Manhattan Valley?

What's a deal?

I don't know the answer but I did post a few days ago re: friends of mine that purchased a 2 bedroom on the UWS a few weeks ago after searching for months and finding no deals either (they paid asking or maybe a bit above, Im not sure). For what thats worth!

> It's either my expectations are way off or these neighborhoods are recession-proof.

Miller said specifically that UES had hit 20-25% down at one point. Perhaps its your expectations.

The theory of many was that GV and UWS were two of the more stickier neighborhoods.

Is it more important to get a "deal" or buy something you like.
In other words do you feel better getting 50% off a "piece of crap" instead of no discount off something "good".

Also, despite the ranting of the bears, brokers are reporting increased activity recently. (Bonus season is back.) We'll see if the activity translates to sales.

If it's a deal, i.e. offered at less than current market value, then other buyers are going to want it too, so it ends up being bid back up to market. ("Current market" means current, not what we think it should be or what we predict it might become.)

I guess a real deal would be something with a defect that bothers the rest of the buyer pool but is no problem for you.

> Also, despite the ranting of the bears, brokers are reporting increased activity recently

Despite the ranting of the bulls, prices have still not risen. Apparently, one of the requirements of being a bull is not understanding the difference between volume and prices (completely missing that some of the biggest RE price drops often come when volume jumps).

Well, 25% off insane prices doesn't necessarily mean sane prices. Folks might be seeing what is 25% less than it might of been, but perhaps they're forgetting where things were, or were expecting to be able to afford twice as much as they could in the past. Who knows.

But a lot of it also points out that we may still have more to fall. All the "pent up" demand and the volume and all that, and the last set of broker reports had some showing a further 5% decline in prices last quarter.

For the billionth time: Las Vegas and Phoenix have had RECORD volume for over 12 months in a row. yet prices keep falling. I have zero respect for any idiot who equates "volumes" with "price increases."

Hey, guess how high volumes went on the CME, NYSE, for i-Traxx, etc, the day Lehman went under? RECORD volumes. Where do you think prices went?

Did I mention I think you are an idiot?

Just wait. Prices will soon collapse because people will inevitably wake up to the imbalance in price/rent ratios. It's going to happen. You can't just discount 25% off bubble prices and resume business as usual, you just can't. All the buyers who are providing artificial support for current prices are mostly from non financial backgrounds and find the whole argument too confusing and the nesting instinct too overpowering. So it isn't really demand as much as it is spousal pressure and naiveté that is fueling the market right now. Also, if you wait long enough your kids will eventually move out and you'll be able to buy a cheaper place. But if interest rates start climbing you may want to wait just a little bit longer so that prices can adjust. Then you can buy, but be quick about because everyone that was as smart as you will be doing the same, but thankfully the demand will be matched by the flood of sellers trying to get out at the bottom.

"For the billionth time: Las Vegas and Phoenix have had RECORD volume for over 12 months in a row. yet prices keep falling. I have zero respect for any idiot who equates "volumes" with "price increases."

Hey, guess how high volumes went on the CME, NYSE, for i-Traxx, etc, the day Lehman went under? RECORD volumes. Where do you think prices went?

Did I mention I think you are an idiot?"

It does amaze me that brokers and other geniuses needed to be told this over and over again. Then again, they need SOMETHING to hold onto...

"All the buyers who are providing artificial support for current prices are mostly from non financial backgrounds and find the whole argument too confusing and the nesting instinct too overpowering. So it isn't really demand as much as it is spousal pressure and naiveté that is fueling the market right now."

Ha. Funny, but probably true.

hehe spinnaker1. You saved me from reading hundreds of posts. Not that I would've....

btw, in terms of the OP... if someone isn't seeing price declines, they aren't reading.... an entire thread on 'em, just for the UWS...

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/7616-if-you-can-demonstrate-market-movement-with-comps-upper-west-side-edition

1400+ posts

I recently have been looking on the UWS (full disclosure, bought in 1995, sold last year, downsizing with kids going off to college) and renting now. One building I saw had a few open houses with good traffic (not prime location, decent renovation, nothing spectacular). They just RAISED the prices 10% across the board. A little hard for me to understand since they had no sales at the lower levels.
Prices seem a bit high everywhere to me, but I am not sure I have the correct perspective on anything yet....

fyi...there is no way to track volume on the i-traxx

I think there are some 'hoods and buildings where we are not going to see "collapse." As for hoods, West Village would be first on my list, Gramercy a close second. People want to live there, and there is not as much inventory as say, the UES or Murray Hill. As for buildings, say you live X neighborhood where there are only 2/3 good coops (doorman, elevator, or other things that are important to you). Again, not as vulnerable. To clarify, I am not a bull or a bear, I just think - based on many many years in Manhattan and knowing how half a block can make all the difference in the world to some people - that you can't generalize.

Hey technologic, why would you choose West Village as your first pick? just curious...

the notion that there is a "generic" price psf may be history once this bubble passes. I could see someone paying $600 psf to live on a low floor pre-renovated, where someone else pays $1200 psf to be in a penthouse in the same building with views, light and air. The only problem is that appraisers would have a difficult time justifying values if they cannot do it by neighborhood or building. I was in a hotel in a foreign city where one side of the building afforded views befitting a five star hotel, while the other side was a dark canyon view befitting an SRO.

somewhereelse - good on you for posting the link to the UWS market movement thread. Important info there for perspective UWS buyers, not the least of which is the gradual decline in postings on that thread from 13 mos ago. It's wild to imagine the quantity of postings there -15 pages in 13 months!!!! W81 was and is a true Mnh market visionary. Its weird though that only 3 of the 15 pages cover the past 6 months. I'm guessing 12/15 cover those that reduced to the market and sold, which leaves many of us to wonder "where's mine?" Patience my good friends, you'll be happy to know collapse is nigh. Get your house in order, opportunity is just over the next hill. And if we find that it's not, at least we have developed close bonds with each other, which is worth far more than those material things anyway. We will gather and throw stones while we wait in perpetual grumpitude and pessimissity. It'll be fun!

somewhereelse, when did i say I was a bull?

I just said, as much as you spam... the fact is there is INCREASED ACTIVITY, nothing more.
If there's increased activity, sellers are likely hoping hope of higher prices.

I didn't say anything about prices, price declines, bull/bear sentiment or anything.
And just because the market is down 30% doesn't mean there aren't individual sector winners.

*hoping for higher prices

Maybe some of the posters above can opine on why it is they see a need to clarify (or muddy) their bull/bear position. Are you afraid of something or afraid of standing for something?

"all the buyers providing artificial support at current prices are mostly from non financial background" frankly, how do you really know this facr...

Julialg... imagine Bill Murray as Captain Ironic from the starship Sarcasgalatic and we'll get along just fine.

...and julialg, if you do have a financial background and made a move in this market anyway, I understand will provide one free unreportable pass, so you're cool.

I know a Wall Street guy that bought "seconds" on a financially troubled prewar condo conversion post the Lehman crash. He paid $1100 psf cash for a small one bedroom, and the initial buyer/seller lost a chunk of his equity. A correction to be sure, but not exactly fire sale pricing for the UWS.

"somewhereelse, when did i say I was a bull?
I just said, as much as you spam... the fact is there is INCREASED ACTIVITY, nothing more."

Nope, not even close... you didn't "just say that", you spewed venom at "ranting bulls".

And, if you want to pretend "all you said" was that volume was up, your bitter post was DIRECTLY in response to the comment about PRICES.

So either you are bitter and confused, or really bitter.

"Maybe some of the posters above can opine on why it is they see a need to clarify (or muddy) their bull/bear position. Are you afraid of something or afraid of standing for something?"

Spinnaker, I think you hit it exactly.

Clearly aifmm was to spew nonsense at "ranting bears" without having to admit the position they are defending. They want to take the contrary position, but just not admit it so they don't have to defend themselves and their lousy logic.

Its funny, not even the bulls want to be bulls these days.

"somewhereelse - good on you for posting the link to the UWS market movement thread. Important info there for perspective UWS buyers, not the least of which is the gradual decline in postings on that thread from 13 mos ago."

I know. The bulls (or bullsh*tters, they can pick which they want to be) aimm try to cover up some of the actual declining numbers here, but you really have to work to be that ignorant here.

SPC - WV is my first pick because: way less inventory compared to other 'hoods, many nice properties/ lots and lots of wealthly ppl in the area (which IMHO makes foreclosure rates lower than other places), families desperately want to live there because of excellent schools and willing to pay a premium for it, the "it" factor of living in the WV near Magnolia Bakery. Those are the ones that come to mind.

Spinnaker - if I was one of the ones your comment was directed to, the only reason I posted that I am neither bull nor bear was so people could see that my statements were not made supporting one side or the other, which I think is a fair thing to do.

"SPC - WV is my first pick because: way less inventory compared to other 'hoods, many nice properties/ lots and lots of wealthly ppl in the area (which IMHO makes foreclosure rates lower than other places), families desperately want to live there because of excellent schools and willing to pay a premium for it, the "it" factor of living in the WV near Magnolia Bakery. Those are the ones that come to mind. "

Of course, those are all reasons it could have inflated far more than anywhere else (so a return to "normalcy" would be a smaller decline).

I agree that the WV has a lot of draws, and it won't "tank", but it might just have a lot more to fall than other places given how hot it was. The UES didn't have anywhere near the same appreciation in the last decade, for instance.

sorry , backward...

"so a return to "normalcy" would be a LARGER decline"

The tiffany network (CBS) is back on top, thanks to an aging demographic. The same reasoning may suggest it's time for the UES to shine. However, there has been solid investment in the UWS, starting with Lincoln Center fifty years ago and continuing with TW Center five years ago. The Maderin Oriental, Trump, and Hudson Hotels are recent additions. The Empire Hotel is a very nice renovation and many restaurants have opened in the area. I would say that betting on a continuation of the gentrification of the UWS is a safe bet. If the economy recovers, I predict higher end retail along the 72nd St in the next ten to twenty years. Nothing beats the UWS for proximity to two parks, museums and mass transit hubs. With Trump, then TW Center, then 15 CPW, the Gold Coast of the UWS has undergone a pretty amazing transformation from the "West Side Story" neighborhood of fifty years ago.

techno - it's a safe bet that those people who feel a need to keep score on such matters, will draw their own conclusions as to your inclinations, despite your disclaimer. Me, I could care less.

spinnaker, I think your (excellent) sarcasm went above the heads of many on this thread. I don't understand the fascination with score-keeping on an anonymous internet message board.

spin, interesting analysis of the analysis. perhaps w81st has been busy. maybe i'll devote some time to the UWS comps thread. wouldn't want it to feel unloved.

aboutready, you're right, some of those threads lose steam after some of the "sexiness" wears off, but that doesn't mean there isn't significant movement still happening. It underscores the point though, that simply linking to a thread (and an old one at that) doesn't automatically prove anything one way or the other. I do applaud the yeoman's work in maintaining the market movement threads! They are quite valuable to actual discussion here.

AR - surely you can't believe the market is still moving to the degree it was a year ago but I wish you well in your pursuit.

spin, i think it is moving differently, but still moving. and tellingly, the movement is increasingly affecting the market that is most propped by governmental support, the conforming loan segment. so i think pent-up demand there is fading.

and i am also increasingly seeing people put their places on the market at below previous sales prices from the start. yes, i'd qualify that as movement.

thanks for wishing me well!! hope you're enjoying your fireplace.

spin & somewhereelse,
No it's really more like you are now the new annoying class of poster on the forum. The "buy now or be forever priced out bulls" that dominated the forum previously have been replaced by "manhattan prices going down down down" bears.

You're all just very annoying and transparent trying to push your agendas.
Not every stock falls when the stock market is in a bear market.
Not every apt is on fire sale in this great depression.
Sorry, but that's the truth.

I think that if you're going to buy, buy something of quality.

aifamm, spinnaker is lampooning that very thing. Otherwise, you're 100% correct.

> Nothing beats the UWS for proximity to two parks, museums and mass transit hubs

Well, it is certainly beat on the museums front. Its on the wrong side of the park from museum mile. And if this is about a longer term bet, as you said, then you have to factor in the UES adding trains

And UWS seems to have UES way beat in terms of projects, both on the south and north ends. In the long run, those are very problematic for neighborhood values.

And restaurants, UWS has long been known as one of the worst neighborhoods in town.

You're also forgetting that the one signficant eyesore on the UES - 86th street - is already in the middle of a pretty fing major switch. The problematic buildings have been knocked down and since replaced, and the retail transition is already underway. 72nd didn't get anything like that yet, and its a little late into the crash to expect a whole lot more.

Plus, UWS had a bigger gain in the last decade, and I think its popularity has sort of peaked.

I wouldn't be betting on the west side right now.

> No it's really more like you are now the new annoying class of poster on the forum. The "buy now or
> be forever priced out bulls" that dominated the forum previously have been replaced by "manhattan
> prices going down down down" bears.

Of course the latter was... uh... right. ;-)

> You're all just very annoying and transparent trying to push your agendas.

Unlike you?

> Not every stock falls when the stock market is in a bear market.
Of course. But one falling or rising stock doesn't mean you AREN'T in a bear market either.

> Not every apt is on fire sale in this great depression.
Of course. But one apartment not on fire doesn't mean we're not in the biggest recession in decades.

> Sorry, but that's the truth.
Perhaps you need to learn the whole truth.

Spinny note that west81 after the crying game incedent no longer posts on se as regular(lies). So that's where you throw your whole Canadian ham on? The pace of posting is down? F'n lmao.

I believe aboutready has accepted your challenge. Maybe I'll throw in some dollar pancakes with Canadian maple syrup as a side dish. Shouldn't you ke playing ice hockey on the east river? Eh?

"And UWS seems to have UES way beat in terms of projects, both on the south and north ends. In the long run, those are very problematic for neighborhood values." Really? Whatever projects you are referring to have had little impact on fifty years of gentrification so far. There hasn't been a new project in generations and the existing middle income buildings are largely privatized. I think when goldman sachs employees replace mitchel lama tenants, the neighborhood is improving. When a massive RS/RC development like Park West Village gets five new market rate buildings and a Whole Foods, its safe to say the West Side is still improving.

w67thwannabe - deeeeep breath my little timeshare buddy. I know things can't be great at home, what with all the wives talking reno and redecorating their new apts. Listen, your dream 500psf mold-hole is waiting but it just might take another President or winter games to get there. Ask the wife if she's ok with Sarah in 2012 or Sochi in 2014. Tell her to relax and imagine the low slung winter sun casting brilliant but brief window bar shadows on the new naugahyde sofa on that one special 500psf window exposed to the February azimuth.

how many of the frequent posters here are cross-dressers?

[67...by the way..no matter what he offers you, don't take the fall for Patterson, and claim it was your idea to import the those teenage thai girly-boys...]

jim..UWS cross dressers are mostly new dad's who think they are still tragic village hipsters. My stuff no longer fits me.

> "And UWS seems to have UES way beat in terms of projects, both on the south and north ends. In the
> long run, those are very problematic for neighborhood values." Really? Whatever projects you are
> referring to have had little impact on fifty years of gentrification so far.

Funny, you were the one just talking about how it still has ways to go in terms of gentrification. Think its just a coincidence?

> There hasn't been a new project in generations

I didn't realize that a project has to be "new" to have an effect.

> and the existing middle income buildings are largely privatized.

Who is talking about middle income buildings?

> I think when goldman sachs employees replace mitchel lama tenants,

Mitchel lama [sic] buildings are *not* projects, you seem to be confused.

> When a massive RS/RC development like Park West Village gets five new market rate buildings and a
> Whole Foods, its safe to say the West Side is still improving.

When a neighborhood is "still improving" its a safe bet to say it has a need for improvement.

Spinny: I'm spending so much $ on firewood. Who knew keeping WBFPs going was so spendy? I bought some at WF for $5, some at Fway uptown for 7ish, some at Gracious home for 9ish. Where should I go for firewood? Dimitri's is shut, I believe. I'm burning about 4 of those small logs daily in the LR. Prolly going to die of lung cancer at this rate.

Don't the delis sell firewood anymore? I used to get it at 72nd & WEA. That was before the FP was co-opted as a place to put the GD stereo....

They do, but cheaper than $5 for a bundle?

hoser - firewood is a pain in the ass right now for me. Like you I have an innate need to make fire, endlessly. So us roof dwellers split 1/2 a cord, which ended up being horrible, dirty, wet crap. Then before xmas I bought 1/2 face cord of kiln dried gold from thewoodman.com, which was good but crazy expensive. I need to go upstate and find a farmer who thinks I can't possibly be from the city with that truck and steal a full chord at a locals price. Do that once a year and forget about the $1/log f'way extortion. You still have a truck don't you?

Hmmm, I think it was more than $5 but less than $10, but that was three or four years ago. I have a short attention span so didn't burn more than three chunks at a time.

I bought a place about 6 months ago up here on RSD and the low 100's they were asking $599,000 and I paid $580,000 and there were A LOT of other buyers buzzing around. It needed a complete renovation which was like $75K. However I now have a large one bedroom in an amazing pre-war doorman building with direct river views from every window in the apt. I dont think I could sell it at a profit but $650,000-$675,000 for this apt, dont think I would have any trouble finding someone to buy it at that price