he who hesitates, is about to lose big time!

So -- hurry up and buy while you can still buy before the market goes down more...isn't that what you're saying?

- how relevant is the credit score issue to first time buyers in manhattan
- how relevant is the paltry first time credit to nyc buyers (i would think not much but...anecdotally...i have seen quite a few mention it)
-

i would agree with you about the sellers. they need to price right and sell now. as far as the buyers, i would wait unless it's a great deal. there already seems to be an increase of listings out there and there will be many more to choose from within a few weeks. yes, the buyers will have higher rates, but they will be paying less. that should balance the down payment/monthly payments. as far as FHA, most of NYC (except for Jamaica, East NY, Bushwick, Bed Sty, East Harlem, etc) does not apply. Some condos received approval, but they need to get to the 50% threashhold before they can start selling with it.

Irregardlessly

But why not just wait till may 2011 when prices are down 40% more esp if I am all cash?

You've got all the right data to say a tsunami is coming, but your advice for all non swimmers to head to the beach f'king sucks dude.

One other advice, no means NO!

Sounds like bad news for people with no down payment and bad credit. Sounds like good news for the rest of us.

These are so irrelevant to most buyers here. How many people in NYC are prospective buyers with credit scores under 580? It doesn't seem like that would even be in the top 10 reasons prices are going to go down.

maly,,,that was my point too.....

i wonder if the mortgage rates will go up as fast as he says (if they did...would the govt reverse course)

Sorry, Jim, I am watching a documentary. I hadn't refreshed before answering. You said it much better.
As to interest rates, if employment and inflation pick up, they will start going up. Anyway, the initial post is irrelevant, but even if it were relevant, the conclusion should be the opposite. If you can't put at least 20% down and your credit score is under 580, buying should be your last concern.

w67th, nice use of the irregardlessly.

yes, do buy. now. right now. because you might not be able to tomorrow. which of course means you might not be able to sell if you need to also, but what the hell. do what you must to buy. now. not later, that would be awful. now.

maly, actually, any development that has fha approval? including a number of harlem and brooklyn (luxury) developments. they allow lower credit scores and very low down payments.

"Nail 2- The slowing, and eventual end, to the Federal Government’s purchase of Mortgage Backed Securities. In 2008, 99% of all loans sold in the Secondary Market were bought by Uncle Sam. When he moves to the sidelines on March 31, rates will climb swiftly."

The Fed has already said they will go back to purchasing MBSs if rates suddenly climb.

"I personally do not believe in reducing the allowable seller’s concession."

I do. As a seller, the govt's action now save me money because a buyer can't demand I pay 6% of their closing costs. In fact, I think the allowable seller closing credit shoudl be ZERO. When I bought my house, I paid 100% of my closing costs. And the last time I sold, the buyer paid 100% of their closing costs. Why can't people pay their own f-ing cloisng costs? it's not a new concept.

I expect we are a few weeks away from the announcement that nail #1 will be extended again. I also agree that it probably has little bearing on nyc as it is a paltry amount relative to our high prices.

AR, the FHA gimmick is like the last movement before death. I really get annoyed when I think of my tax dollars subsidizing stupid developers. All these capitalists never mind chucking their losses to the great unwashed.

So -- hurry up and buy while you can still buy before the market goes down more...isn't that what you're saying?

Perfect. Exactly.

Buy now or be priced out forever...or rather, buy now or be for 20% less next year.

Buy now if you truly have a long time frame for the purchase. Current interest rates provide a lot of downside protection if you have a sufficient time horizon. And significantly higher interest rates are probably more certain than substantially lower prices.

"Lower FICO scores (below 580) will now require a 10% down payment."

If you have a FICO score below 580 you shouldn't be getting a mortgage, and you should be given one.

So typical to misinterpret this as a reason to buy rather than a reason to sell.

funny how most of the bull/bears on this board agree that the tax credit and low fico score are no big deal in nyc. that said you can bet the democrats will not pull one leg out from under this economy and these programs get extended. the economy is improving in fits and starts as is often the case at bottoms. the stock and bond markets are indicating economic recovery. the chinese are taking steps to head off a bursting bubble-something we should have done, several times, going back to 1997. japan, yes japan is finally awakening from it's lost decades, even the eurozone is actually taking some austerity steps. yes i know the economists are all predicting a double dip recession. these are the same guys who missed the 2000 and 2008 stock market crashes, the RE crash, said interest rates would be soaring at this point in time, said the stock market would be moribund for a decade after the '08 crash etc etc....economists are like sheep, they simply follow the herd. same goes for the media and the public follows along to the slaughter. best to turn off the nattering nabobs of negatavism(oh god qouting spiro agnew now)and look at economic numbers unfiltered.

Never mind the economy... If they stop buying mortgages, rates will rise and prices will fall.

The first small steps to restore sanity to the real estate / real estate financing world. More measures to contemplate: 1) end of the home equity loan tax deduction
2) place limits on re-financing with limits on "equity growth"
3) mortgage rates tied directly to percentage down payment and real credit rating of purchaser - less risk to lender, greater benefit to buyer
4) inability to finance closing costs - may finally increase pressure on all the "commission vultures" and the like

you bears drive me crazy. you should buy when you can afford what you need to live in. yes, if we have a collapse in NYC property prices, it will be easier to pay cash, but it may be harder to make a commitment if that happens. Life is too short. There are no guarantees that you will have the money available to buy later. Even if you have money in the bank, who is to say we don't have a currency crisis and banks freeze deposits while nominal prices inflate. It's happened in other countries; why assume stability here?

PMG - everyone understands that you're a desparate seller who wants to get 2008 prices. unfortunately for you, people on this board have more than 1/2 a brain left after their teenage years.

ab, I'm not willing to pay capital gains taxes and transaction fees on the gamble that (1) nyc property prices decline (admittedly easy) AND (2) a comparable home is available when I'm ready to re-buy AND (3) I would have access to liquid investments, the value of which is unaffected by the economic circumstances that drive nyc property prices down. I wouldn't expect a teenage could comprehend the economic possibilities that may me in our future.

Common wisdom suggests that you do the exact opposite of what Alpo tells you do to.

Wannabuytulip- keep telling yourself that

Pmg- omfg. When my parents taught me 'life is short' it was from the perspective of 'don't squander it'. Not leverage and consume bc the bubble is popping! Is that what you are teaching your kids? Don't look at data, 'life is short, experience that jump from the empire state bldg, take just one hit of crack, go to Bangkok ad have unprotected sex!!!! Grab life by the horns! Yeeeeeeehaw!

"go to Bangkok ad have unprotected sex!!!!" ohhhhhhhhhhhhhh my dream lol. w67, you've been on a good roll lately, what happened, good crack in the neighborhood ;-)

w67 - Bravo -comment of the day. I guess conventional wisdom is to buy now before the banks freeze deposits. I haven't even heard that from any sellers agents on open house Sundays!

Hurry up and buy... the market is going to crash!

If the government ever froze deposits while we were experiencing high nominal inflation this country would most literally revolt. All hell would break loose.

Most of the nutjobs are worried about the gov't coming to take their guns... but if they froze their bank accounts, most of those nutjobs would use their guns to get their money out of the banks - and shoot just about anyone that got in their way.

I hate to break it to you memito, but most Americans don't have much in the way of bank deposits. Overdraft they have. Deposits, not so much. The warning was to guys like W67 who are wealthy. Wealth is at risk. Debtors not so much.

Manhattan prices will continue to fall. Why does this need to become fear mongering bullshit.

Rhino, So it's okay to be negative and talk down the NYC property market, but it's bullshit to be negative on the economy?

I just think it misses the point...Its not that relevant to NYC resident property market and by extension to this site.

Buy where you live because the world economy sucks is a message not relevant to a site that markets homes? Sorry if you cannot tolerate the truth. Have you been reading about Greece lately?

If you think buying an overvalued Manhattan coop is a great idea because Greece is in trouble, you are working from a logic system that is not familiar to me.

Here is the relevance. The worlds borrowers need more money. Therefore interest rates should rise. The value of highly levered assets will fall. Coops are no safe haven. Why drone on about the future implications of Greece and the other pigs. You need to get back to the basics of Manhattan residential history.

The recommendation is to someone who is an all cash buyer that timing the market is a risk. There is no certainty that his"cash" whatever that is held in, is any more stable than NYC home prices. It's a straightforward message, relevant to W67 bs.

The fear of holding dollars is a bunch of bullshit. Real estate is a local good. If the dollar crashes, this will impact the price of food and energy. Cash and short duration bonds are surely SURELY more stable than Manhattan coops. You seem like someone who reads just enough to draw all their own ridiculous conclusions and make a mockery of financial logic.

Why would real estate inflate? You are a dope.

With the US debasing its currency, why wouldn't the nominal price of property rise? Sleep on that, Rhino. You might never own a home.

Wake me up when I will regret not owning a home. I wish I had the money in the 1990s. There really isn't any regret over renting since 2003. By 2012, there might not be any regret over renting since 2001. You can't explain why a lower dollar would drive up the price of a local good like real estate...or haircuts. You don't understand economics and you are trying to bait me into teaching you. Keep thinking a coop is a hedge and not an exposure. A coop is a hedge against one thing, rents. If you have a bull case for Manhattan rents, by all means share. Otherwise truly stuff it.

Rhino, we can agree to disagree. I never said anything about coops. Personally, I have always recommended condos for all but the very well to do, or for those that simply cannot afford a condo. Condos can be leased or sold to whomever, which gives owners more options, more flexibility, IMO more value.

So you want to say Greece and dollar debasement against gold or other currencies is good for condos and then not explain the connection?

No, I'm just saying you're injecting the term coop in the conversation, and I think all condos, except those sold in the last few years, are a lot less risky than coops. I'm saying to an all cash buyer like w67, that timing the market is inherently risky. Risk can run in his favor, or it could turn against him, depending on how his "cash" performs, and what happens to the price of NYC property. Simple message. I'm sorry you are so confident you understand the "math" of finance and investing. In 2005 when I mentioned to an successful, former Wharton classmate that Fannie Mae stock was a good short, she laughed, but it was just a matter of time. She also bought her NYC home in 2008. Successful people make mistakes. Everyone makes mistakes.

At what point are you going to explain how the dollar falling against foreign currencies makes local rents and condo prices rise? Have Manhattan rents enjoyed the run up the gold has in the last 10 years? Make the connection or stop babbling.

How is it possible that a $500,000 cash investment with a monthly maintenance of $1000 is a much better investment than a 2.5% certificate of deposit? Real estate, as an investment, has some pretty significant associated costs of owning as well as transaction expenses.

Its not at todays rents...not even close.

PMG I dont care about mistakes. What you have is some basic misconceptions. Just because you called Fannie Mae a short (but likely didnt short it) doesnt make you an expert on anything. You think your condo is going to be a hedge against dollar devaluation. The only connection with Greece is that its in the dumps like Ireland, where contractors used to be a source of demand for Manhattan studios.

Rhino, owning a real asset you actually need is better IMO than speculating on a store in value, so you can buy that asset later. It's a simple though. No economic analysis is required.

At least you've admitted that you don't understand the mechanics of your own assertion.

Its like you ate a Peter Schiff book and swapped gold for a Manhattan condo. I don't think the fall of US civilization is going to be great for condo value in its economic capital. Now go sit in the corner.

I'll give you a hint, if the dollar crashes, for real estate in Manhattan to rise...there would need to be holders of other currencies faring better with a desire to own property here. Maybe you should examine the history of the value of real estate in Zimbabwe.

My silence will be because I refuse to be baited any longer. No one was talking about the fall of US civilization except memito who brought up guns. I mentioned the risk of frozen bank deposits, which has happened in western civilization, so wealthy people like w67 should just be aware of it.

How is is baiting for you to explain to me the relationship between a crashing dollar and rising rents and values in Manhattan. You are just someone who reads enough to misuse terms and misunderstand relationships. A condo in Manhattan isn't a cabin in the woods.

Here is a free lesson. Whether you pay all cash or not, most people use financing. If inflation spiked, so would interest rates. Working off such a low base for interest rates, the impact of money cost would dwarf with impact of higher rents (if higher rents were realized by dollar debasement at all). So when you think about a hedge to your own worth, its got more to do with the next buyer than it does to do with your financing decision. Dismissed.

PMG, you stated that timing the market is a risk. Very true, but then again, every decision you make or don't make is a risk. Many people here, including myself simply believe the chances of NYC RE prices falling or staying flat is much greater than prices shooting up because of inflation or other reasons. My opinion might be different if we're talking about a different city, where prices have dropped 50%+. Not many here are against buying, our opinions simply differ in terms of timing.

sideways for 10-15 years.... for those who want to own not speculate;find an apartment you want to live in and enjoy life...

Life is so much more enjoyable when you give a 15-year boom more than a year and change to unwind. Thanks Julia, you are always here to represent the side of those who would rather not be made to feel icky by thinking about their major financial decisions.

the biggest bubble of all time needs years to unwind; julia is right about the sideways action..

well...if things are going to unfold from here in such a logical fashion, sooner or later deflating the bubble....then why did the bubble not stop earlier, or ever arise in the first place....the idea that things MUST unfold logically is overstated here

unlike tulips or condos in the swamps of florida; nyc real estate has an intrinsic value and is the blue chip of real estate.... yes years and years of sideways action not a collapse.

blue chip.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GE#symbol=GE;range=5y

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