Calling the Bottom in Manhattan

Unlikely. The bottom will be when the cost to own is less than the cost to rent the same unit.

To have a bottom, you need things to stop falling.
The last quarter reports were down again.

So when there is a bottom, it would have to be 2010 or beyond...

> Unlikely. The bottom will be when the cost to own is less than the cost to rent the same unit.

Actually, we should not discount the possibility of an overshoot. If you have a historical equilibrium point, you generally find periods above AND below that point...

Bottom is 3-5 years out. It's impossible for this to be the bottom when mortgage rates are at historical lows - it's just math.

prices are lower for sure but they seem to have stabilized and sellers dont seem desperate to me anymore.....

Baby, if this is the bottom -- I'm the top!!!

I prefer real comps to avg's as the data can too easily become skewed with a couple of big sales or many lower priced sales.
I'd be interested in seeing examples of prime mnh sales comps from mid 2009 vs early 2010 that would support a conclusion either way. Anyone have any good examples?

bottom??? I'm waiting for prices to drop...show me a one bedroom doorman bldg. on the uws or village for under $600k....prices dropped on the high end because the pricing was crazy high but one bedroom and studios are at a standstill....please don't call it a bottom.

I think we take another leg down this summer / fall when the new hires dont show up again. we find bottom sometime late 2010 into 2011.

julia ...1 beds and studios dropped but the prices are still high.....even in the 500's its high in comparison to where it was in 2002 etc.....you dont think you can get a 1 bed on the uws in the 500's now?

We bought last summer in expectation of a flattish next few years ... only time will tell whether we were right.

ali r.

You can't tell when the market has bottomed until it's over. But based on historical "bottoms", I would say that in each and every bottom, cost to buy v. rent has to be lower than what it is now.

"prices are lower for sure but they seem to have stabilized and sellers dont seem desperate to me anymore....."

Funny... folks have been saying that for, what, since the crash began!

"prices dropped on the high end because the pricing was crazy high but one bedroom and studios are at a standstill..."

Julia, once again, you are just wrong here. All categories have fallen dramatically.

Lets also not forget.... the last Manhattan re crash lasted FOUR YEARS. The national one is getting that long.

The shills and brokers have been pretending the Manhattan one is over since, what, a week after it started?

Not very logical.

I like Streeteasy discussions, because every once in a great while, someone throws in a Cole Porter lyric.

Nice work, Truth ;-)

As for a bottom, it will come when interest rates go up, like 10013 said. It's not only math, it's the way real estate works.

Some examples at different price points include
Park Laurel - 15 W 63rd St
- March, 2009 - 37A - 8.55M
- Sept, 2009 - 35A - 7.4M (bottom)
- Feb, 2010 - 36A - 10.2M

Grand Millennium - 1965 B'way
- May, 2007 - 12H - 2.175M
- Oct, 2007 - 20H - 2.85M
- July, 2009 - 11H - 1.65M (bottom)
- Feb, 2010 - 17H - 2.075M

UWS.....ive been seeing price increases as well since last summer although not nearly as dramatic as the ones you have noted

People are talking like it's some well known fact that prices are continuing to decline. There have to be some good examples of this, right?

I think as higher taxes hit, prices will decline further

Higher taxes, higher interest rates, lower deductions, lower confidence, more foreclosures, the list goes on...

Figuring out the bottom makes this rockin' world go 'round.

1992

170 West 74th Street #412 asking $26K less than last sale four years ago.

01/30/2006
Previous Sale recorded for $425,000.
02/10/2010
Listed by Halstead Property at $399,000.

269 West 72nd Street #2D asking $47K less than last sale 4.5 years ago.

10/14/2005
Previous Sale recorded for $382,000.
02/06/2010
Price decreased by 4% to $335,000.

302 West 79th Street #6D asking $39K less than last sale 5 years ago.

02/01/2005
Previous Sale recorded for $399,000.
03/18/2010
Price decreased by 6% to $360,000.

secondandc - if you're trying to demonstrate market movement I suggest you peruse the thread below, which typically uses actual recorded sale prices as evidence. What I'm looking for is evidence of decline from mid 09 till now.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/7616-if-you-can-demonstrate-market-movement-with-comps-upper-west-side-edition

Truth and Freddie Mercury will rock you.

spinnaker...so you want to see a recorded last sale in mid 2009 now being offered lower to justify that prices are still going lower?

That'd be a good place to start marco, wouldn't you agree? UWS123 noted two sales that have gone higher, others have given anecdotal evidence of higher prices. I also don't see much in the way of declines from mid last year. If the market is continuing to decline the evidence should be easy to find among the 5000+ sales since mid 09.

I dont think people were buying apartments in 2009 with short term horizons. Lets see how things look come june. Im betting manhattan RE both rental and for sale are weaker.

I tend to agree with front porch that things will be flattish for a while. That's where things seem to be right now. Shadow inventory seems to be coming out of the shadows to that may put some hold on upward price pressures, though compared with population, it is still quite low. At the same time, the panic is over, and in general the economy is improving. 1st quarter RE reports out next week should be interesting.

Overall economic trend reports -- unemployment this Friday and GDP at the end of the month -- may have some psychological impact.

How can anyone be comfortable calling the bottom when NYC unemployment is at 10.2%, mortgage delinquencies rising, and no one have any idea how many homes (and entire buildings) will eventually end up in foreclosure/short sale.

I know that I might miss the bottom if I wait till NYC unemployment to be at 7% and heading lower, 90 day+ delinquencies and foreclosures/short sales to start declining. However, how far from the bottom could I possibly be in that scenario? One thing I have learn from the tech bubble and the credit crisis, is that things can go A LOT lower than one would expect, from over valued all the day down to under valued.

When you say the bottom happens when cost to own equals or is less than rent, are you talking gross or net cost to own (with tax incentives and principal amortization)?

I find some units where net costs to own are comparable to rent (studios,1 bedroomos)- but only if the tax code continues to work in favor of ownership and maintenance/property taxes increase gradually, rather than spiking.

Also: once interest rates move up, as long as prices slide down proportionally, wouldn't the net cost to own could remain similar? thanks!

Can anyone name any period where the price of Manhattan coops was "flattish" for a few YEARS?

Weren't the early to mid 90's kind of ho-hum?

http://mysite.verizon.net/vzeqrguz/housingbubble/new_york.html

We're still way above where we were in 1997-2000 when the Clinton R.E Bubble ignited. But I do not believe we will go back considering the Government's effort to reflate the bubble. This could be the bottom...

"Weren't the early to mid 90's kind of ho-hum?"

Maybe if you read some of the BS Brokerage Reports, but they basically made up the numbers, In the stuff I was looking at prices went up about 100% or more during that time period.

30yrs, so you are saying this chart is BS?
http://www.millersamuel.com/charts/gallery-view.php?ViewNode=1168394442sGxaK&Record=0

Here's the inflation adjusted version:
http://www.millersamuel.com/charts/gallery-view.php?ViewNode=1168394992nPaRM&Record=2

http://mysite.verizon.net/vzeqrguz/housingbubble/new_york.html

We need a lognormal graph..

Eastside, don't try to time the market. And I suggest that you go against the current.
You can find many deals out there mainly because of the negative market sentiment. If you have cash, you will be able to find some great deals and you will have the upper hand in negotiating a good price. If you wait until everyone think the market has bottomed, then those deals will not be there and you will be too late. In reality, no one knows where the market is going.

"And I suggest that you go against the current." -- brill advice

But, I thought the prevailing sentiment was for "flattish" pricing. It says so in the New York Times. Every broker keeps saying this too.

Or is prevailing sentiment that "no one knows where the market is going"?

How do I go against the current, when the sentiment is in the middle?

I think the market is more negative that flattish. I don't think you will find one person out there telling you that prices will start appreciating soon. However, based on my research, you have people in 2 different camps: 1) one camp suggests that this is the bottom and will be at this level for a while, and 2) another camp believes that prices will drop much further. To me that sounds more like a negative rather than a positive sentiment or "flattish" pricing.

SNS, my point is that the majority of people, including myself, don't know what we are talking about. People tend to listen to the so called "brokers" and analysts thinking they know more that the average person and the reality is that they know a lot less than we do.

Absolute Bottom

March 10, 2014

Macro_m: "I dont think people were buying apartments in 2009 with short term horizons."
And yes, I know spinnaker asked for prime manhattan, but still:

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/506141-condo-198-roebling-st-williamsburg-brooklyn
STREETEASY HISTORY
02/17/2009
Previous Sale recorded for $615,000.
03/27/2010
Listed by City-Spaces at $789,000.

Tina
(Brooklyn broker)

Please remember that brokers don't sell a lot of properties if they tell prospective buyers that they think prices will drop a lot over the next couple of years!

Not that that would ever influence their outlook.

I dont come across a single short sale in Manhattan
Whats up with that

Short sales are all over the place...takes two seconds to find them...

Wit dat: a very nice guy bought in my condo building. June,2008. He found out how the building is operated and managed as if by an organized crime group. Put it up for sale in March 2009.

He lowered his asking price a few times and was willing to take an almost $100,000 bath on the sale. Still no sale, and he took it off the market.

And for now ; dats dat.

"30yrs, so you are saying this chart is BS? "

Absolutely, 100% yes. Remember that before 2003? there were no publicly recorded sales figures for Coops.

If ANYONE thinks that prices were higher or even nearly equivalent in 1991-1992 and 1997-1998 they know absolutely NOTHING about what was really going on in the coop market at that time. Also look at Q1, Q2 1989 vs Q2,Q3 1992. Anyone who think prices went UP there knows less than zero about what was going on.

"But, I thought the prevailing sentiment was for "flattish" pricing. It says so in the New York Times. Every broker keeps saying this too."

Broker to English translation: "We are scared shitless that prices are going to fall precipitously in the near future".

NYC10013 - You say "Short sales are all over the place...takes two seconds to find them..."
Please help me ..... How do I find them?
And to " 30yrs_RE_20_in_REO" you say "Broker to English translation: "We are scared shitless that prices are going to fall precipitously in the near future".
Then how come the listings in a lot of cases show a price increase despite being unsold for a few years?

desai1, desperation, confusion, wishful thinking?

Tina, broker, the request was for a closed sale not for an asking price, and for a good reason. The fact that somebody bought in 2009 and thinks he/she can flip it in 2010 for a 25% profit, in Billyburg of all places, doesn't tell us anything about real estate. It tells us something about that person's mind. Also, we don't know if it was a falling down building that has been renovated, or what?

"To have a bottom, you need things to stop falling.
The last quarter reports were down again."

Bookmark this statement when next quarter's numbers are up and then watch the retracting begin

"People are talking like it's some well known fact that prices are continuing to decline. There have to be some good examples of this, right?"

Yes, unlike the "market has bottomed" claims, the flip side is more than a few example... its the market medians, which went down again last quarter. You can keep your anecdotes, I like data.

> "To have a bottom, you need things to stop falling.
> The last quarter reports were down again."

> Bookmark this statement when next quarter's numbers are up and then watch the retracting begin

Juiceman, your comment makes zero sense. Its a statement of fact, and the fact will be true even if the quarter *after* does something else. There can be nothing to retract, becase it is history now. Q4 went down AGAIN. What q1 does won't change that a bit.

Btw, speaking of retractions, still waiting for even one from you. We've got TONS of bookmarks.

You finally going to admit it? You know, that maybe Manhattan prices did in fact go down a little?

30 yrs....good to "see" you again. I'd like to get a little clarification on what you are saying....If I'm understanding correctly, you saw declines from '89-'92 and then price increases in the mid 90's. Is that right?

If so, what do you think of the current environment....'89-'92? or mid 90's? Unless you've changed I believe I know what your answer will be, but I want to make sure I understand correctly.

Thanks

"To have a bottom, you need things to stop falling"

Means once things stop falling you have a bottom. So if things "stop falling" and go up that means we have a bottom. That is your statement, or did someone else write it for you? If you would like to further clarify, go ahead.

I'm with toby that no one can truly predict the market, but I am certainly not scared, much less sh*tless, that prices are going to fall precipitiously in the near future. if that were the case, it would be easier to push our current seller into taking one of the five offers we've brought in.

What shoe is left to drop, really? The 90% of people who are employed are on a spectrum from hanging in to having had a very good bonus year -- even with some of it in stock, Wall Street clearly has not fallen as far as the bears had feared. Condo lending is a little looser than it was a year ago (heaven bless you, Shaun Donovan) and the recission cases are starting to come in pro-developer. The government could lose control of interest rates, but I believe a 100 bips jump would scare sideline buyers *into* the pool and then we'd have a good year before the higher cost of buying gave us a bad year again.

ali r.
DG Neary Realty

Macro_m: "I dont think people were buying apartments in 2009 with short term horizons."

I don't think spinnaker was limiting his inquiry to same-unit resales. Same-line comps should also be worth considering, as per UWS123 above. Here's one asking $1k less than a comparable sale from last summer.

200 RSB, E-Line 1,217sft 2/2
28E 09/09/09 $1,500,000 Recorded Sale
27E 03/25/10 $1,499,000 Current Listing

Here's another example that seems to go in the opposite direction.

Park Millenium, C-Line 1,050sft 2/2
37C 07/21/09 $1,550,000 Recorded Sale (Contract 5/19/09)
29C 01/05/10 $1,700,000 Recorded Sale (Contract 10/14/09)
40C 02/10/10 $1,895,000 Contract
(leaves out 42C due to possibly a different layout)

> Means once things stop falling you have a bottom. So if things "stop falling" and go up that means we have a bottom.

Thats actually bad logic. Thats the converse. And not necessarily true You could actually stop falling for a time (or go up) without it being a bottom, but you can't have a bottom without stopping the fall.

> That is your statement, or did someone else write it for you? If you would like to further clarify, go ahead"

I would have thought it would have needed no clarification - hell, I would have thought it didn't even need to be said..

But, seems like you aren't alone in your confusion.

"I'm with toby that no one can truly predict the market, but I am certainly not scared, much less sh*tless, that prices are going to fall precipitiously in the near future."

Didn't 99% of brokers (and 95% of this board) say that pretty much spot on in 2007?

front porch, now you think interest rates going up will help the RE mkt. Smoking some good stuff you are.

spinnaker1 - I would argue that a property with a last close 5 years ago that currently has an ask below that last close is evidence that the market is in a current state of decline from just about any other point you want to pick in that 5 year period.

Real interest rates have been going up. There's just too much debt and nobody to finance it. Market has Libor @ 4% in just a few years and Ten year above 7% in the same time frame. It's serves no purpose to throw out random constant values when the market has a clear expectation. You are better off saying whether you are betting over or under the curve.

As a sidelined buyer I am WAITING patiently for interest rates to INCREASE, and for all of the federal financial "tools" to work their way out of the system before I even consider buying. I have lots of cash and a landlord that has decreased my rent if I re-sign for two more years. There is no question that once the costs of borrowing start creeping up, prices will continue their downward trajectory. These prices, even though they are down from 2007-2008, are still in Lala land. Inventory is piling up, the fed has ended its buyback of distressed assets and the homebuyer tax credits are just about gone. We also have lots of new rental inventory, chronic double-digit unemployment, looming financial reform/regulation, decreasing population and scores of homeowners still on the brink of default. Enjoy this DEAD CAT BOUNCE while it lasts.

"So if things "stop falling" and go up that means we have a bottom."

Is that hard for you to understand, Juicy?

Facts are facts: still twice as expensive to own as to rent, or more. Inventory creeping back up. Nowhere to go but down.

Will it be a straight ride to the bottom? Probably not - not enough turnover for that to happen. But down we are a'going!

what hejiranyc said

hejiranyc put it loud and clear

Realtor Ali is throwing in a muddled of disconnected nonsense. For example, another shoe that could drop any day now is a taxpayer bailout (if approved) of the FHA and your beloved Shaun Donovan, considering what he's done to single handedly revive subprime lending. And, FYI, only a tiny fraction of the 90% in the city who are still employed work in Wall Street and receive bonuses. For the rest, there is job insecurity and diminished salaries.

"If so, what do you think of the current environment....'89-'92? or mid 90's? "

Right now, things look nothing like either. We have not seen a true crash (yet, anyway) so it can't look like 89-92, and therefore also can't have a recovery from a crash, like 92-97.

Although I will point out that I see so little acknowledgment that the percent of the market made up by condos (as opposed to Coops) has so extremely affected their "rarity value" that I have to question whether people doing the predicting understand what makes up pricing of these goods.

The problem with "90% employment" for people other than the upper middle class is that there is a HUGE percentage of people how don't fit the parameters t met officially unemployed, but lots, overtime, second and third jobs, "cash jobs" etc. that it really doesn't anywhere near correlate to the pain being fealt by the majority of NYers.

We bought in 2000 (thank god) and sold summer 2009 (thank god)and made a little $.
When we bought...interest rates were 8.75...but we got our 1st apt at a great price....and just refinanced it down over the years to 5.75 .
We are waiting until the interest rates go back up....prices will be great...it will be like dejavu!
We are renting..and enjoying the show...good luck to everyone..my advice is ...wait.

Trompiloco: "The fact that somebody bought in 2009 and thinks he/she can flip it in 2010 for a 25% profit, in Billyburg of all places, doesn't tell us anything about real estate. It tells us something about that person's mind."

Exactly. I posted that in response to Macro_M's statement that "I dont think people were buying apartments in 2009 with short term horizons."

The market is the market, and there's no telling where that property will trade, if it does. Could be an investor testing the market. Could be flippers. Could be someone who lost her job and has to sell, but wants to profit if possible.

The pricing tells us something about that person's mind, just as most of these posts tell us something about the posters' minds, and little else.

Tina
(Brooklyn broker)

egad.

So not one example showing continuing decline in prime mnh post mid 09? hejiranyc suggests that once interest rates start increasing prices should continue their downward trajectory. Lets say rates in 2011 go up 1%, what happens to the price of a 2M property during that period? Is there such a thing a nominal affordability for a 2m property and will its price need to adjust in consideration of the higher rate? Or will today's 2m buyer who is that affected by the rate change just set his sights on a lesser priced property next year while the 2.5 buyer moves in to fill the void? How many prime Manhattan buyers are that married to rates? Will the cash buyers play along?

Even though we peered over the edge of ruin 18 months ago, many sellers have yet to acknowledge this in their price while huge numbers continue to buy. How many sellers will also thumb their nose at a one or two point rise in rates if people are still buying? Call me ignorant but I just don't see a huge correlation between gradual rate increases and prices, there's too many other factors at play.

how sustainable is all this alleged activity? Im sure there is some new money coming into the market. but theres not much of it.why is it that a building like Isis hasn't had a single closing? even though they advertise 10% off ask plus transfer and mansions taxes...if things are picking up, why keep giving incentives? the bonus money has been paid...why arent brokers on here talking about how open houses are packed and bidding wars breaking out??? lets see what case shiller has to say tomorrow

Can someone tell me where I can find condos in distress

Miami, Las Vegas.............

Spinnaker, by your logic, one would assume that people have no budgets or monetary restraints. So why doesn't everyone rush out and buy a 3 million-dollar 1BR in a white brick coop on 2nd Ave.? Why let a trivial thing like mortgage costs and monthly income get in your way? For many people, it's all about "how much can I afford per month?" And you cannot deny the fact that every single time rates have dropped, housing prices have gone up in lock-step. The converse is true as well.

Another thing to consider is the issue of renting/owning. The rent/own gap is already excessively wide. Increasing interest rates will only widen the gap. I think it's one thing if prices were starting at a point where it was actually less expensive to own (after 20% down payment). But we're already starting at a point where, in many cases, it's almost twice as expensive to own vs. rent. There is only one way prices can go when the disparrity becomes that great.

pains me to admit that i see the market as having bottomed in established manhattan neighborhoods--for now, it appears to me that the low was spring/summer 2009

will it prove to be a dead cat bounce? i hope, but i cant deny that the markets i watch seem to be trading slightly into the ascending side of the Ubottom

it is nonetheless impreessive the speed with which apts, of the caliber i watch in specific established neighborhoods, are trading at prices a notch improved from thos of 9-12 months ago

NYC makes January the 5 straight month over month decline. case shiller today

hejiranyc said "And you cannot deny the fact that every single time rates have dropped, housing prices have gone up in lock-step. The converse is true as well."

Still have yet to see a chart that shows that this is true. RE prices usually increase in increasing interest rate evironments. I'm not saying that this will be the case over the next few years, but I think you are assuming as fact something that isn't.

hejiranyc - "Spinnaker, by your logic, one would assume that people have no budgets or monetary restraints. So why doesn't everyone rush out and buy a 3 million-dollar 1BR in a white brick coop on 2nd Ave.? Why let a trivial thing like mortgage costs and monthly income get in your way? For many people, it's all about "how much can I afford per month?"

That's a giant leap from what I said. In fact I believe the days of people budgeting up to the edge of affordability are long over. Wild unrestrained appreciation will no longer bail your ass out of a stupid decision. There's a lot more of "can we make do with this?" and much less of "what the hell, lets go for it!" So I do see people setting their sights lower if budget is a prevailing issue, rather than waiting out some hypothetical rate based correction that could take years to play out.

Spinnaker, in your example you posited a 2-point rise in interest rates. For a 2mm condo/coop and a 1.6mm mortgage, that's an increased monthly mortgage payment of $2666. That's some brat's yearly tuition in private prep school. Unless you are truly a member of the high-flying ruling class, $2666 is a lot of money. Conversely, if $2666 is indeed considered such a trivial monthly amount, then these people probably would probably set their sights on something much higher than a 2mm place. Let's face it, 2mm in Manhattan is not going to buy you anything close to opulent. At best, it's adequate (but still cramped) housing for upper middle class families.

"why is it that a building like Isis hasn't had a single closing?" Umm, maybe because it is still under construction. Just a wild guess.

Hejira: I think your understanding of the 2mm market (on the UWS) is muddled. By your logic, no-one is going to buy a 2m apt, period, when rates are this low because they (and everyone else) can forsee a 2% raise in interest rates. That is, they're going to buy at a much lower or higher price point. There aren't many apts trading at this price point, but there are enough people (right now) buying so that things are trading in this price range. Hard to call out everyone's personal situation, but I suspect a fair number are locking in rates for a long period and putting in 30%+ down.

That's the frustrating thing about this market for people waiting for a major price correction. It's taking much longer than anticipated for the pent-up demand to ebb from 2m buyers who are willing to pay that or a little bit more for a 3br/C7-esque setup. And while not price-insensitive or interest-rate-insensitive, they are willing to gamble that rates will go up and bite the bullet anyway. W67 would call them lemmings or some other choice name, but there you are.

Ok 2666/mth is a lot to some, trivial to others. I get it.

Following your theory for a moment, what will a 2% hit in rates do to our theoretical 2m property? More importantly, how long will the correction take? Will any other factors play a role? What if rates go up with wage inflation?

wage inflation? with 10% unemployment?

"It's taking much longer than anticipated for the pent-up demand to ebb from 2m buyers who are willing to pay that or a little bit more for a 3br/C7-esque setup."

But what is the evidence that we are seeing "pent-up demand" (implying some finite quantity of unsatisfied buyers) as opposed to the market having found a level where enough buyers see value that realistically prices properties simply get bids and continue to get bids? At current prices, I don't get the value proposition myself, but clearly others do. I don't know how one goes about determining how numerous those others are.

> NYC makes January the 5 straight month over month decline. case shiller today

No, no way!

Somebody has an ANECDOTE! That CAN'T be true!

lol

> So not one example showing continuing decline in prime mnh post mid 09?

Really now? Not only trying to counter data with anecdotes, pretending there are no anecdoates the other way?

How about an entire thread?
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/5465-chasing-the-market-down-our-favorite-price-choppers?last_page=true

But, as I was saying, anecdotes seem to be the last refuge of those who refuse to look at the data.

We need a 30% further decline just to get in order with the historical average. Of course, if there is a 305 decline there will enough fear to overshoot just like in any correction. Unless they inflate a new bubble this is most the most likely scenario. A new bubble can't happen because this time they do not have enough money to neither increase wages nor give loans directly (banks won't do it).

Can't see a bottom if the rental market remains as is (forget about worsening) and the disproportion between rent and sale doesn't adjust.
The disproportion now suggests 20 to 30% down to go.However, no accounting for potency of lemming juice.

I don't think there will be any further support from gov. I don't mean the tax credit because this is inconsequential. I mean the risky FHA loans and the MBS purchases by the fed. They spent billions of dollar to delay the inevitable. Of course, no one knows.

somewhereelse - Can you point to a sale in that thread that supports your conclusion that prices have declined from mid 09?

Wow, how come you don't have such trouble with anecdotes you like?

The next to last one had a sale at $1.25 9/16/09... and is now listed at $1.19

And its the SAME APARTMENT!

So, you going to answer my question... why do you refuse to look at the actual DATA?

somewhere else - don't you think the price chopper's thread is also anecdotal - actually picking and choosing those sales which reinforce that point of view? Whenever I post a sale which is ABOVE the 2005-06 selling price, all the bears are strangely silent.

However, do prefer your posts to zzzz west 67th's constant "lemmings, thongs zzzz" posts, and rhino's combative ones.

Well we have 1st Q numbers due out sometime in the next month...

Miller Samuels avg psqft manhattan previous reports
1stQ '09 $1259
2ndQ '09 $1056
3rdQ '09 $ 996
4thQ '09 $1051

Considering that this is the current snapshot for ASKING prices on streeteasy right now
We found 12,050 listings
Median price: $995,000 Median size: 1,100 ft² Median price per ft²: $1,033
Information on Manhattan

It's pretty safe to assume average psqft will be lower than 4thQ '09.

Anxious to see actual closings number as the steady diet of "1000 in contracts" 30 day average is impossible to believe.

somewhereelse - there is no record of a sale in your example, just a precipitous price chop from May 08.