UD - Inventory over 9000. Discuss

Agreed - people are talking about the uptick in sales as positive news, but are ignoring the fact that new listings are outpacing contracts signed by 2:1...

9000 is just a number. A manipulated one at that. Any inventory that can be kept of the curcuit for as long as possible... is.(shadow inventory) Add the phony "in contracts"(around 10% of in contracts, the other 10% are legitmately failed contracts).
The story is that closings have returned to Average while price per square foot declines.

Buster
THats not entirely accurate either. Many of the "new" listings are old listings renewed. Urbandigs source for "new listings" is streeteasy I believe and especially the "1 day" new listings field is impossible to weed out what's actually "new."

That is a very good point, truthskr10. I'd still venture to say that new listings are still outpacing contracts signed by a healthy margin - this is why the growing inventory number matters - as long as it's calculated consistently, it's a good benchmark to measure the true change in inventory.

my new systems are showing:

ACTIVE - 7,699
PENDING - 2,933
DAYS ON MKT (pending sales) - 154

I have 30-day NEW LISTINGS added to market at 986, 30-day ACTIVES added to market at 1804, and 30-day contracts signed 1085..we are doing a system refresh after some fixes we implemented so these might change a bit.

must be that darn january effect.

"9000 is just a number."

So is "50% down".

Yep, 15 open houses match my criteria for this sunday. up from the usual 4.
That's up 375%!

How is 7 months worth of inventory worthy of a bear gladfest? If I remember correctly this time last year we were pushing 11 or 12K with under 500 sales per month. Tell me, when was the better opportunity?

Spin, please. That was 12000 SE numbers. Which we have now again.

Sorry but these are UD numbers aboutready. Ah the good old days... gobs of selection, sellers running scared and bears watching from the quay as the boat steamed out of the harbor.

http://www.urbandigs.com/2009/03/manhattan_inventory_trends_nov.html

http://www.urbandigs.com/2009/03/manhattan_inventory_nearing_11.html

spin, UD used to use the SE numbers. his system changed significantly second half of last year.

sorry.

You're too funny! UD's numbers then were scrubbed far better than SE's. But OK lets say inventory last year was the same as it is today (not even close, but for sake of argument) sales were running at about 1/3 of what we have today representing over 18 months of supply vs the 7 months we have now. Again I wouldn't categorize todays numbers as a reason to get all frothy when viewed against the opportunity presented this time last year.

yes i am funny. but that wasn't.

inventory on SE topped out at about 13,300. at the time UD had the same numbers, and yes he scrubbed them something fierce. back then and now SE's inventory numbers include those that are in contract. if you removed those then and now you'd have numbers much closer to UD's. SE's system hasn't changed, UD's has.

so, as you say, sales have been quite brisk. and yet inventory remains high, and prices haven't gained any traction (except at the high end, the low end is looking weaker by the week, hahaha), and all of this has occurred while the gov't has been holding the real estate markets on its shoulders ala atlas. what do you think happens going forward, hmmm?

OK, maybe more tenacious than funny. Enjoy your weekend.

me tenacious? won't deny, but look inward, friend.

a good weekend to you as well.

1yr ago my new systems have inventory at 9460 or so.

So inventory was 25% higher with less than half the sales activity.

BTW every time I go to your site Noah I'm hoping for UD 2 to appear.

i know me too...i spend all my time on the new site doing spot checks I sometimes go to the real urbandigs.com and it looks weird to me.

soon. the wait is worth it for data quality. might not be May 1 though, maybe week or two later unfortunately. I have to stop putting exact dates up, Im trying to keep my two teams on a target deadline, but fixing all data issues and building the platform is proving more tedious then we even thought it would be a few months ago. its all for the better though in the end.