Today starts the official DOWNFALL

Flatdweller - Yes, you should definitely walk away and just forego the down payment. Please do it first thing tomorrow. Tell the lawyers, seller, and bank you read that a "him who knows" told you to do so. Please, don't just walk away you should run away from this deal. No more talk, just do it. PLEASE!!

Spunky you are a genius. I really love your posts.

Oops sorry for the above post meant to use a different screen name. Not as good as HimWhoKnows who's has about a dozen screen names all who congratulate one another on their analysis.

MMafia, I completely agree with your analysis. Bonuses for wall street traders this year are going to be way down... and to everyone who thinks highly paid traders are so great at saving their money & therefore their huge mortgage will be no problem to keep up - traders are paid to make markets and to take market directional bets - most are very comfortable taking on a large amount of personal leverage - 2 million dollar condos at 10% down were easy for these guys to wave in... and guess what happens when the market turns against you and you are highly leveraged?

I heard a rumor that China may no longer buy our debt today. Is this true? If so our interest rates will probably rise to draw foreign investors to pay for our huge deficit. I have an ARM that resets this winter. I am getting very nervous with this situation. I can afford 8%, but anything over and I'm really screwed.

Is there any chance the government may help people in my situation? Can we please pray that the Federal reserve will cut interest rates to 4.5 by winter? This would really help save my day.

Kudlow said on CNBC in February that the FED will cut to 4.5...thoughts or suggestions?
HimWhoKnows, where will the fed funds rate be by year end? Thank you!

"I have an ARM that resets this winter. I am getting very nervous with this situation. I can afford 8%, but anything over and I'm really screwed."

That's what you get for taking out an ARM you overconfident retard. Stop speculating with other people's money, hoping prices will go higher and higher and then begging for someone else to bail you out, jerk.

Concerned - if you're that concerned, pay the fee to refi to a fixed rate 30 year and quit whining.

Wouldn't it be interesting if stock market investors feel it would be safer to put their money in Gold and real estate in Manhattan.

You've got it all wrong, spunky, it's gold and real estate in manhattan that are part of the global asset/commodity bubble that's been going on. The stock market was just riding on top of that. If you ever went surfing and found yourself on top of a 30 ft wave that's about to crash you'd know what happens now, just hope there's sand on the bottom and not rocks.

"Wouldn't it be interesting if stock market investors feel it would be safer to put their money in Gold and real estate in Manhattan."

It would be interesting, although data shows that their 'flight to safety' path has been to the Bond Market and not into those asset classes.

Bottom line I don't see the Manhattan market plunging and I know that must be pissing the hell off of renters or doom and gloomers on this board. In fact available inventory still low.
Cooler heads will prevail here.Fact remains economy remains solid, job market very strong and once we get through this we may even have a stronger Manhattan RE market.

BTW--BTW we all should be enjoying this for this is a classic panicking in the market. 5 years from now this will be a very distant memory. I do hope Manhattan RE goes down for I am interested in buying at a discount. Watch out the vultures are swarming the Manhattan RE market looking to scoop up nice deals.

The next person who uses multiple alias I'm hoping they gets some kind of subprime STD.

All I can say is that I'm glad I sold my place and closed in February. This market was way overdue for a downward trend. I've been looking at "700" square foot apartments in the east village with magic chef appliances asking 1000 per square foot. People, these prices are not based in reality. Plain and simple. And you can cite how expensive London and Tokyo are per square foot but those countries have finite amounts of real estate. NYC r.e. prices are overvalued, period. Its time to sell if you were intending on doing so in the next two years anyway because its going to get ugly around here.

To Spunky, Fed was saying everything is fine and dandy a couple days ago but now they and the rest of the world's central banks are dumping massive liquidity into the markets.

They just lost all the credibility they had, everyone is going to run for the door now.

Head for the hills. Markets are crashing, people are jumping out of windows, Banks are shutting down. This is worse then the depression. Please please please sell your apt and sell it at I discount. This is starting to sound monotonous.

So...everyone is saying that Manhattan real estate is going to keep going up. Let's all be happy. I'm hoping that's correct. Please explain the reasons why it will not be affected by the problems in wall street, etc.

I bought my place in 2006 and I have a 10 year ARM. So I'm good till 2016. I bought my place under 1000 psf. I will be selling in 2016. Please wait till then and vulture by my door step. Till then, please continue to rent.

Julia--Foreign cash is puring into NYC market. It's not dependent on just Wall Street and there is no concrete evidence that Wall street will have massive layoffs nor is the world going to implode.

The funny thing that nobody has noted -

Yes, their are some vultures waiting. But there's no more easy money. NOW, to buy, you're gonna have to have much more than money. Fabulous credit scores. Incredible net worth. Perfect credit history. Very long term job stability. And so on. SOoeven if you have alot of money stashed away, unless you're going ALL CASH, you still may not be able to get a mortgage in order to buy - and if you can, that mortgage rate is gonna be MUCH higher than it was - OUCH. Which means taha many of these so-called vultures will continue to wind up renting, because they won't be approved for a mortgage loan in NYC. They missed the window completely.

I really feel sorry for the renters - they are the ones who are really so totally screwed now!

#221 very interesting analysis do you think based on this that rental prices will actually start to rise. The vacancy rate seems to keep going down and more and more people are moving into Manhattan.

I just think, at the very best, the vacancy rate will stay (more or less) around the same. Some people who lose jobs will not be able to afford to live in NYC, and that will free up some rental space. But many people who thought they were going to be able to buy, won't be able to, so they'll rent longer instead. Added to that will be people who bought, but can't afford to own any longer due to ARM's or job loss or whatever, so they'll try to sell (if they can) and when they do, they'll be renters again.

At the best, vacancy rates stay nice and low like they are now. A worse case is that vacancy rates crunch lower because few can afford to buy or get a mortgage to do so, tightening the competition for the residential rental market, exerting increasing presure on the prices.

#223 excellent analysis and should be a very interesting market for renters in the years to come. I do believe rents should go up a bit after all renters don't need to put a hefty down payment or need to apply for a mortgage so this may be a win win for renters and landlords.

"I really feel sorry for the renters - they are the ones who are really so totally screwed now!"

Appreciate your sympathy, however misdirected it may appear to be.

"At the best, vacancy rates stay nice and low like they are now. A worse case is that vacancy rates crunch lower because few can afford to buy or get a mortgage to do so, tightening the competition for the residential rental market, exerting increasing presure on the prices."

This is assertion is flawed in so many ways, but perhaps the most significant is this:

1. "few can afford to buy or get a mortgage to do so" - point taken

2. "tightening the competition for the residential rental market, exerting increasing presure on the prices" - contradictory logic

If "few can afford to buy or get a mortgage to do so", you are basically saying the demand will DIMINISH as less people will be equipped to purchase.

When demand DIMINISHES, the "tightening" that will occur is NOT on the buy side, but on the SELLERS or SUPPLY side, as there are FEWER BUYERS forcing SELLERS to compete with each other for the DIMINISHING pool of buyers.

This as we know from the basic economic theory of Supply and Demand will lead to deflationary pressures in Prices.

You will have to rephrase your statement for it to make sense logically.

SCRAP my previous post- I made the incorrect assumption that you were talking about the Real Estate market and not the Rental Market.

Your analysis is correct for the Rental Market. However, the Real Estate Market will face deflationary pricing pressure as a result of what I said in the post above.

bloodbath on wall street again today. this is ugly.

Bloodbath for some, we're makining $'s hand over fist again today...

# 226 If you think the rental market will be stronger as a result of less people buying and more being forced to rent due to difficulty in obtaining a loan then why wouldn't it be a good idea to invest in NYC. People who need to live in Manhattan will find it much easier to rent than to buy therefore their should be a premium put on rental units.

Difficulty in obtaining a loan = diminishing homebuyer demand = lower price pressure = not a good investment unless you are shorting it through the Housing Futures market on the CME.

Over time, rent will hit equilibrium with housing prices, but until that occurs, purchasing ahead of time would be a cash-outflow proposition.

A better proposition would be to purchase once equilibrium has been achieved- in that scenario, housing prices would have declined while rental prices have increased to meet each other in equilibrium. That would be a much better investment decision.

#231 I agree but I doubt that scenario will ever come about, at least in Manhattan.

an even better proposition was to lock in a rent increase cap a couple of years ago when landlords weren't finding tenants. ;)

to late we are dealing with the present and it appears that rents may now be at a premium due to difficulty getting a loan, low vacancy rates, and more people moving into Manhattan.

I'm speaking about myself, spunky.

The fed has given free money to the banks 3 times this week already. Not looking good. I think I'll buy some futures because of the fool's rally expected on Monday.

Here's one of the best descriptions I've seen about what has happened collectively over the past 5 years for the real estate market. This writer is talking about the national RE market, and I hasten to add that NYC is different in many ways. But I think it's fair to say that Manhattan RE will not be completely immune from the dynamics he is describing.

An excerpt:

These years of rapidly and magically expanding wealth were furnished, in large part, be easy access to huge volumes of credit on great terms. People borrowed and spent. More money chased the houses and assets available and bid up the prices. This showed up as rising value of assets. As prices increased confidence in future price gains grew. More was borrowed and further bid up prices. Fear and risk were banished as more and more debt chased up asset prices. That is how bubbles form. All that borrowed money showed up as rising debt too. We borrowed an additional $3.85 trillion in home mortgages from 2002-2007. A 64% increase in mortgage debt bought us a 52% increase in the value of real estate. This suggests trouble. We should have gotten more growth in assets to compensate for all that extra debt. Some of the bloom is off the rose. It gets more complex, bear with me. All that money we borrowed, the extra $3.85 trillion, has to be paid back. It has to be paid back on time and with interest or you get what is happening now, mortgage defaults.

This is how bubbles burst. The prices of assets, houses included, can rise and they can fall. The money borrowed to purchase the house is relatively fixed. The re-sale price of the home is far from fixed. This mismatch between fixed value liability -- mortgage -- and variable value asset- house price-can cause trouble. It can also furnish gains. That is why so many chased the dream. They believed, they put their borrowed money behind the dream. For a while it worked, not anymore. Confidence in the bubble is sliding. Faith wanes in the prudence of borrowing more and more to buy increasingly expensive assets. The real risks come crawling back up, out of the dark corners where they were banished during the euphoria.

* * *

Full article URL: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/max-fraad-wolff/life-in-the-bubble-house_b_59988.html

This coming week we will see the DOW sink below 13,000. Be careful!

More news on NY Real Estate market and relationship to Wall Street bonuses:

Excerpt (about a buyer who withdrew his offer on an apartment) from Reuters article entitled "Cracks may appear in Manhattan apartment market":

[beginning of excerpt]

"There is no sign of a downturn in sales figures for now, but Kory's [a real estate agent]
experience may be an early sign of weakness in the robust Manhattan market that could be vulnerable to struggling stock markets, hedge fun losses and newly cautious lenders.

'I guess he called his mortgage person and found it wasn't going to be as easy as he thought for him to get what he wanted. He got nervous and decided not to proceed,' said Kory, senior vice president of the Corcoran Group.

She also suspects he may have feared his bonus was going to be hurt by the market's slide. The bidder, like much of her clientele, works in the financial industry."

[end of excerpt]

* * *

Full article URL:

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSN1228750920070812?sp=true

"I think I'll buy some futures because of the fool's rally expected on Monday."

Easiest 1% ever.

Now I'll join HWK in his 13000 goal, but I think it might be a few more days as the banks issue all kinds of reassuring statements...

Everytime HimWhoKnows manages to post the day before the markets finish in the red. I can't believe this #@$@#$@.

I've posted this before, but the Reuters article is one big yawn. Nothing new or persuasive there, and anyone who allows one anecdote from one reporter to influence their thinking on this deserves what they get. Oh, and Kory obviously didn't learn anything from Bear Stearns CFO Sam Molinaro's botched conference call. This isn't what you say to the press if you're a broker and want to keep those commissions coming in.

#171 wrote - "zizizi - NYM, RWX and IYR are all up,... ouch"

And when you say up, you mean down, yes?

HimWhoKnows is a sick man, DOW now under 13,100. Impressive call Mr. Geico!

Uggh, HimWhoKnows seem to called it again. So, when will the market go back up?

HimWhoKnows= Ben Bernanke or Alan Greenspan..but do either use the internet?

Let's find a way to figure out who is HimWhoKnows?

HimWhoKnows knows wassup. So does marc farber. Hmmmm...

From today's WSJ: (article: "How the Mortgage Bar Keeps Moving Higher")

"The screws are tightening at the upper end of the market, for so-called jumbo mortgages that exceed $417,000, the limit for loans eligible for purchase and guarantee by mortgage institutions Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. While lenders used to provide mortgages without proof of income up to the full value of a $1.2 million purchase, now 80% financing for a purchase up to $2 million is the maximum for stated-income mortgages, Mr. Reiner says. And creditworthy borrowers have to satisfy higher asset requirements: Instead of reserves equal to two months of a home's mortgage principal, interest, tax and insurance payments, lenders are demanding six months of reserves, or even more."

80% financing and proof of income are the norm in NYC. And which "lenders" is this article referring to? Some lenders? All lenders? Yet more crappy reporting on this topic.

From today's WSJ, re Countrywide, the biggest US mortgage lender (article: "Countrywide Airs Plan To Weather Credit Squeeze"):

[Excerpt]
"The problem is with 'jumbo' mortgages above the $417,000 limit and some other loans, including those to people with poor credit records or who don't document their income -- so-called nonconforming loans, or ones that can't be sold to Fannie or Freddie.

Countrywide and other lenders generally fund these by borrowing short-term money until the loans can be packaged for sale to investors, which can take several months. With Wall Street firms and other lenders refusing to extend such credit, lenders must either stop making loans that can't be sold to Fannie and Freddie or find alternative sources of funding. Amid this scramble for funds, lenders are drastically scaling back their offerings of nonconforming loans and jacking up interest rates. Prime jumbo fixed-rate loans that carried interest rates of less than 7% a month ago can often cost more than 8%.

But many loans being financed now are based on commitments to borrowers made months ago. Countrywide made about $36 billion of loans in July, of which an estimated $10 billion to $12 billion can't be sold to Fannie or Freddie, according to Paul J. Miller Jr., an analyst at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co. Countrywide can retain some of these as investments and try to sell some to investors, but eventually may be forced to dump many of them on the market at a large discount if investor demand remains low, Mr. Miller wrote in a research note published yesterday.

. . .

Some brokers are looking for other sources of funding in case loans they planned to arrange through Countrywide fall through, or are sticking to loans that can be sold to Fannie and Freddie and thus will be easier to offload if the lender they are dealing with doesn't meet its obligations.

Connor Shortsleeve, a mortgage banker with MetroBostonMortgage in Canton, Mass., says he arranged yesterday for back-up financing for a mortgage loan for a self-employed borrower who is purchasing a $500,000 home, but hasn't sold his current home yet. The buyer had already been preapproved by Countrywide, but "the seller said to the real-estate broker they were uncomfortable with just a Countrywide letter of approval and wanted a letter from another lender," Mr. Shortsleeve says. 'You really have to have back-up financing on purchases that are happening right now.'"

. . .

"Meanwhile, a midsize home lender, First Magnus Financial Corp. of Tucson, Ariz., announced it had stopped making loans, creating further disarray for people in the process of buying homes or refinancing. Closely held First Magnus was the 16th-largest U.S. mortgage lender in this year's first half, with a 1.2% market share, according to Inside Mortgage Finance, a newsletter. In a note on its Web site, First Magnus blamed a "collapse" of the market where mortgage loans are sold to investors."

Holy crap- Japan down 874 at the moment!

Hardly slept last night - so excited - it's like when you're a little kid and tomorrow you're going to Disneyland for the first time.

Chomping at the bit to dig into today's market - the volatility is going to be off the charts.

To quote the oracle, Ren Höek, our favorite scrawny "Asthma-Hound" chihuahua, from the 1993 season 2 (episode 10b) titled 'The Cat Who Laid the Golden Hiraball'....

"Oh boy - Mayhem!"

despite asia being down big, the dow and nasdaq will have large gains today, friday going into the weekend. The financials will do especially well, today august 17.

i will report more to you next week. good luck!

Yeah - nice of you to post this little factoid after the Fed just reduced discount rates by 1/2% over a half hour ago, and the market futures (mainly due to short coverage) snapped from negative territory into positive - of COURSE "...despite asia being down big, the dow and nasdaq will have large gains today, friday going into the weekend. The financials will do especially well, today august 17..." - DUH!!

We would of been just a weeeeeeeeeee bit more impressed had you made this prediction BEFORE the Fed announcement, not AFTER.

Retard.

the DOW will be up 68 points right now...64 points right now....61 points right now...

I predict that the housing market will go down and then it will go up. And then after a bit it will go down a little, and then up a little bit. I predict that the stock market will go up a little bit, and then it will go down. Then it will go up and then down.

That is my prediction. More next week.

"My dad cut the discount rate and all I got was this crummy 0.7%" - D. Jones

And what did I say about not trusting what the Fed actually says?

Oh #252, it's number #253 here. We're all waiting breathlessly for 'your report.' Would you like to make your prediction now, or would you feel more comfortable making a prediction after all announcements are made and the markets open in NY next week?

We're still waiting for that prediction, #252 - no cheating by looking at the overseas futures....

My prediction - the markets will continue to be very volatile for the next few weeks. The simple folks who interpret friday as an up day will continue to buy for the next few days, which will be good for some of the statarb guys as some of the names that got killed for no reason will bounce. Then there'll be some more painfully bad news and down we'll go again.

zizizi:

Wow - you actually think the markets will continue to be very volatile for the next few weeks?!?

Really?

Never would have guessed that in a MILLION YEARS!

pseudonym, you should reconsider your excessive usage of all caps, it seems like you're in panic.

"LESS THAN" "ANOTHER" "MILLION YEARS" "EXTREMELY WEALTHY" "NOT" "THIS YEAR"

and so on and so forth. Being a broker is hard now, understood, but it's not a good reason to shout.

zizizi:

Not a broker, nor remotely involved in real estate market (other than the one place I own, of course).

So sorry your delicate sensibiliteis are so roiled by the simple use of caps that you're driven to spend your own free time going backwards, searching through, and quoting from multiple different previous posts of mine (some of them more than one month old(!), all in an attempt to hide the fact that your 'prediction' #260 was as lame as 'prediction' #252, and I had the nads to call both of you out on it.

In addition to that, there you are, flailing about blindly, accusing me of being a broker(?) (and if I had been, so what - it woudn't have made your prediction any less laughable) as if that's the only reasonable intellectual ammunition you have to make a point? Calling other people names?

Panicked people waste their own time desperately searching through pass posts and accusing other people of being things that they are not all in a flaccid attempt to draw others' attention away from their own idiocy.

Face it - YOUR PREDICTION WAS RETARDEDLY OBVIOUS. Doofus. Just be a mensch, admit to it, and move on. And for God's sake, quit calling other people 'brokers' as if you're hurling an insult. Stay on point.

Cutting the discount rate is just putting a bandaid on a deep wound. Here's what will happen, fed will keep rates at 5.25, the markets may move up a little from now until september 18...it's just a window for the big guys to get out.

subprime is a huge mess, and we'e just in the 1st inning. the country will likely see years of stagflation (similar to the aftermath of Vietnam) until suddenly the FED moves rates to 15& and cleans up the mess we're in.

the days of liquidity, mass spending, and ARM with little down payments are history. The country will be in savings mode for next 10 years. It's just a natural cycle, but a natural cycle. we can't continue to sell ourselves to foreign debt holders.

HimWhoKnows:

If we do go back to your earlier predictions, we'll see in your post #16 that you clearly stated "...2. Fed will raise to 5.5..." In your post #42, you clearly stated "...2. interest rates only going to go up..."

But now, you say "...Fed will keep rates at 5.25...until suddenly the FED moves rates to 15&(sic)..." When will this next 'sudden' rate cut take place, approximately? What specifically will precipitate this 'sudden' change?

Hmmmmm - so now you're saying the Fed lowered rates, and now they're stable, until......SUDDENLY!!! - they'll be lowered again! Wow - that's kind of like the exact OPPOSITE of what you 'predicted' above, the Fed RAISING rates!

C'mon, now HimWhoKnows, in your original post (#1) you stated "...I call a 15% correction coming in Manhattan real estate before January, 2008..." and I challanged you to a bet repeatedly on this matter which you never accepted, even when I said I would make the bet easier for you by allowing the wager to be a 10% correction, not 15%, in Mahattan residential real estate by 1/1/08.

Then I caught you out making a big deal forecasting your Friday prediction "...The financials will do especially well, today august 17..." only minutes AFTER the Fed announced the 500 basis point discount rate reduction. And you even made a big deal of putting the precise date in your post, just in case anyone went backwards after the fact to check your predictions, so you would look like some kind of financial oracle, when all you really were was an opportunistic liar craving attention.

"...subprime is a huge mess, and we'e (sic) just in the 1st inning...the days of liquidity, mass spending, and ARM with little down payments are history...we can't continue to sell ourselves to foreign debt holders...It's just a natural cycle..." Goodness gracious, please tell us something we didn't/don't know, already!

Finally, why Septemeber 18th? Inquiring minds want to know more. Really.....

September 18th is next Fed meeting.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/calendar.htm

Moving the Fed discount rate to 1% as HWK suggests would not neccessarily resolve this crisis. It certainly didin't work for Japan in the early 1990's.

"Panicked people waste their own time desperately searching through pass posts and " - so post #265 is your admission of panic? ;)

If my predictions are so obvious, I imagine you used those "obvious" truths to make money when I said I'm buying futures, just as you're buying straddles tomorrow and Tuesday to gain from the initial rally and the volatility that'll follow?

zizizi:

Your use of past posts was to whine about you oversensitivity about caps as a smoke screen for the debate at hand that you were avoiding. My use of posts was specifically on point to show that HWK clearly 'predicted' one thing earlier, than did an exact 180 degree turnabout and 'predicted' the exact opposite thing. As I said in my post to you, stop calling people names, and try to stay on point.

Our fund is up more than 20% net this month alone, more than 50% net this year so far. Care to share your monthly and YTD nets?

zizizi:

After rereading my previous post 269, I realize that my attitude sounds not so cuddly, either. I apologize. It's more fun to compare notes and war stories than to sling zingers back and forth.

I do agree that we'll see nice, big, fat volatility - which is what we make $ on, up or down, doesn't matter, really. But we're not straddling - yet. I'm not so convinced that the rally will be that big or sustained. But some small micro rallies will be all I need twist the crank.

any comments, thoughts, reflections? sorry i was a little early on this note. sold my apartment in 2007 and closed all my equity positions when i wrote this note. today , i can go back and buy most equities i sold at 50% discount, and my neighbors apartment which is for sale and same size as mine goes for 100K less than i sold mine.

and remember 14 months back when i told everyone on this board the nation will face in a recession going into elections for 2008...well thoughts?

I'd say you were right, but I wish you were wrong. I don't remember right now, what was it 14 months ago that brought you to that conviction as of that point in time? Because my first real shudder from head to toe came when I opened the news and saw Bear Stearns having to pump cash into two insolvent hedge funds. I turned to someone at work and said, "Isn't it quite conceivable that this drains all their available cash and they now have none left?'

you're a fuckin genius. here's a cookie. now predict when its gonna turn..

HimWhoKnows: recession? How 'bout depression?

the dow will hit 9,100 and shake around this area for a long time. we will be between 9K-11K mark for next 18 months. The consumer won't rebound until 2010 and with this you will see a "new standard of living". The era of excessive consumption is finishined in the United States. The first to emerge out of the mess will be the emerging markets, particular China. This will be a driver as we move away froma unilateral world and start the formation of a multi-lateral world. This new world will have 3 regions of equal superpowers by 2025. China, alternative energy and agriculture will be where the money is made next 10 years. Good luck to all!

"you're a fuckin genius. here's a cookie. now predict when its gonna turn.."

Well, anyone who listened to him a year ago is doing much better than those who didn't. I'd say at least a dozen cookies.

forget the cookies...... give some more advice

How about this genius prediction?

"spunky
about 14 months ago
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I am going to be a major buyer of the S and P. I believe we have a major over correction and we will probably see the stock market make new highs by the end of the year.Forcasting Dow to be over 15,000 by years end."

> giggle snort <

i only read your first post, but you were right on target with most of your predictions except of course the fed rate of 5.5%, and you missed the credit crisis contagion going global, and the salutary effect that would have on the dollar. we have yet to see a widespread collapse of major hedge funds and the ensuing international crisis as governments try to unwind the tangle of trillions of dollars worth of unintelligible derivatives contracts, but i'm sure that is soon to come. i predict that all players will have to agree to re-boot the system and cancel all bets. once that happens, i predict we will be on the road to recovery. but yes, those nations like china, that have been hoarding cash will come out on the better end.

Hedge fund meltdown apparently on the way:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/07/business/07hedge.html?ref=business&pagewanted=all

in all honesty i'm in shock the market has dropped to 8000 level. i conclude that this level is "panick" selling and that we could see a quick bump back to 9000.
However these are unordinary times. the world needs a new financial order.

Novus Ordo Seclorum.

This is starting to feel more and more like the bottom. Interbank loans must be guaranteed on a temporary basis, until that new financial order is established - which will take some time. If that were done you could see a 2,000 point gain in the Dow in a single day.

Every day of delay further exacerbates the problem. Where is leadership - again?

The last leader we had was crucified on the alter of his silly indiscretions. Now it is us who have suffered through years of idiocy and are paying the ultimate price. Unfortunately, I don't see any leaders on the horizon...

The new financial order needs to to be more influenced by multi-lateral economic centers. Unilateral economic center of influence has potential of severe side effects (as witnessed).

I find that under a new financial order, the U.S. will have less influence in packaging toxic products to the world. Hopefully a new financial order will use a monetary (medium of exchange) backed with something of substance.

This could be a basket of currencies, or say standard for silver or gold. Under a new financial order, it will be interest to see if the dollar holds course. My prediction is it could easily or most likely be replaced.

BTW..here comes the bump back to 9000 level. Watch today and next week.

Expect to see 50% declines in NY real estate from current levels. Most studios, in 2010, will be 200K and 1 BR's ~300K. We just witnessed the greatest "illusion of wealth" pass and go, instead of an illusion of wealth it was actually a "transfer of wealth".

"Most studios, in 2010, will be 200K and 1 BR's ~300K"
Sounds like you are predicting pricing from nearly a decade ago. On the surface, that might make sense, because we have stock prices from a decade ago. Guess I'll be a victim of "illusion of wealth" because I've owned my current place for 10 years without any transfers. You would probably advise me to sell today. But I can envision buying studios at 300k and one bedrooms at 500k, so I don't see as much as a drop as you. And transfer taxes, capital gains, commissions and other transaction expenses, not to mention higher cost of renting in the interim work against any cost savings. Best to not time the housing market IMO.

PMG. follow my thread 2010. best, himwhoknows

Finacial equities are down 80-90%! When will the pain stop? This will impact Manhattan in a bad way:(

you can read my latest expectations in 2009: $25 oil, 5000 DJIA and total collapse of the U.S./NY real economy.

?

whoops
25 on oil?

I would expect more like a 70% drop from current levels, at least with respect to the over priced new developments. We will see $300/sq foot within the next couple of years.

Hmmm...this thread had some...overstatements. 50-70% drop?

Its still going down Jason --- Pfffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffff

this old thread is funny

"...Expect to see 50% declines in NY real estate from current levels. Most studios, in 2010, will be 200K and 1 BR's ~300K..."

"...you can read my latest expectations in 2009: $25 oil, 5000 DJIA and total collapse of the U.S./NY real economy..."

uh-huh...

but wait - maybe all of those things will happen THIS year - I mean, next year - I mean, three years from now ....

the evil force started the war and saved the economic, otherwise the original prediction would have been true

>otherwise the original prediction would have been true

"if something I didn't predict didn't happen, then what I predicted would have happened."