Case Shiller Home Price Index

Champagne for everybody! It's on me!

"CASE-SHILLER: Home Prices Slide 3.3% In February, As Double Dip Continues"

"Data through February 2011, released today by S&P Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show prices for the 10- and 20-city composites are lower than a year ago but still slightly above their April 2009 bottom. The 10- City Composite fell 2.6% and the 20-City Composite was down 3.3% from February 2010 levels. Washington D.C. was the only market to post a year-over-year gain with an annual growth rate of +2.7%."

"the 20-City Composite is virtually back to its April 2009 trough value"

http://www.businessinsider.com/case-shiller-february-2011-4

Its bullish!

jeez, with the dow approaching 13k...

Going to take some more profits.

"The Housing Market Just Had Its Worst Quarter Since 2008"

"Home values fell three percent in the first quarter of this year, marking a pace of decline not seen since 2008 when the housing recession was at its worst. Home values fell one percent between February and March and 8.2 percent from March 2010. The cumulative decline in home values since the market peak is now 29.5 percent."

"Nearly three-quarters (74.5 percent) of homes in the United States lost value from Q1 2010 to Q1 2011."

"A record (37.7 percent) number of homes sold in March were sold for a loss. The rate of homes selling for a loss has steadily increased since June 2010.

Negative equity in the first quarter reached new high with 28.4 percent of all single-family homes with mortgages underwater, from 27 percent in Q4."

"Foreclosure re-sales reached a new peak in March 2011, representing 23.7 percent of all sales during the month compared to 17 percent in March 2010. Foreclosure re-sales have been increasing steadily since June, when they made up 14 percent of all sales."

http://www.zillow.com/blog/research/2011/05/08/no-respite-from-housing-recession-in-first-quarter/

That is sobering.

The easiest call in the history of real estate, not sobering at all. Just the natural gyrations of a market in a multi generation bubble that is beginning to collapse upon itself. When I was taking astrophysics, I always thought an imploding star was beautiful. Kepler! Long live Kepler.

Numbers for: New York, N.Y.

Home value Q1 2011: $346,600
QoQ Change: -1.6%
YoY Change: -5.3%
Change From Peak: -24.2%
Negative Equity*: 17.1%
*Negative equity refers to the % of single-family homes with mortgages.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/zillow-on-negative-equity-284-of-all.html

I wonder to what extent home prices will be affected by the retirement and downsizing of the baby boom generation, in the coming years. Will supply increase, prices go further down?

I sometimes wonder at the assumption that the baby boom generation will be downsizing in the current years. I have noticed that while in the past (let's say 25 years ago?)as people hit 50 and 50+ they "downsized", now it seems that as many hit 50 they decide to "upsize", expand their homes, move to larger places, and many move from the suburbs to Manhattan. Don't think the "boomer" generation will necessarily have a heavy impact on increasing supply in Manhattan (note shortage of classic 6's and 7's on the UPS, where boomers should have been freeing up lots of apartments)

it's not just a question of optional downsizing. as they age many will be compelled to move to assisted-living facilities.

the boomers have just started hitting retirement age, and for many retirement will be postponed for as long as possible because they don't have enough savings to quit. but eventually many will have to move on.

not all boomers had three or more kids and live on the UWS. they're all over the city, in every size and type of apartment. prospects are also fairly dim for this generation of young grads, so there will likely be a delay in their being able to buy apartments and start families (unless of course prices fall even more rapidly than i'd anticipate).

It makes sense that boomers would stay in apts. Upkeep differs little whether its a 1 bedroom or 3 bedroom manhattan apt. But I guess my question relates to larger homes in the burbs/outerboroughs.

i dont know anyone who is considering "upsizing" in their fifties here in nyc, quite the opposite, in fact-- many trading down, and in some cases, moving out of the city to cheaper circumstances-- kids launched, in college, away in the summer--no 50's i know are upsizing--some maintain status quo housing so kids may live comfortably when they visit from college--but upsizing?? possible childless may find more wherewithal in their 50's and want better space, but that's the exception, not the rule

and empty nesters, from the burbs, buying in nyc, aren't buying big, family apartments--that's kinda the point--they no longer need a family home--last thing they are doing is buying a comparably big 4x pricier apt in nyc, now that the nest is empty

Actually, many as they age stay on in their apartments (see NORC re: Stuytown, PCV, lower east side, etc.), possibly with live-in or daily help. Which in many cases is much lower cost, and better conditions, than an "assisted living" facilitgy.

And, re: lower income aging boomers, as I just heard from a relative, you would be amazed at what NY medicaid provides for the elderly (as in daily 11:00 AM to 6:00 PM home aides for cooking, shopping and general socialization).

And what amazed me was the relative did not think that was "full-time" care!!!

>Wbottom - Actually I know of a few suburban almost boomers who moved from large houses in the suburbs to pretty large (though nowhere near the size of the house) apartments in Manhattan. Sizing down for a suburbanite means something very different than for someone currently living in Manhattan.

Sizing down from a large house in the suburbs does not necessarily mean moving to a 1 BR in Manhattan (after all, where would the grandkids stay for their sleepovers?)

Unless they live in an HDFC it would make sense for retiring baby boomers to sell their place in NYC and pick a cheap place to live in Texas or Florida.

sure Sledge - and be away from everyone in their family. Are you serious? Have you ever been involved with an aging parent?

Texas? LOL!!! (those boomers go to Austin and keep their NYC homes)

"CoreLogic: House Prices declined 1.5% in March, Prices now 4.6% below 2009 Lows"

"CoreLogic ... today released its March Home Price Index (HPI) which shows that home prices in the U.S. declined for the eight month in a row. According to the CoreLogic HPI, national home prices, including distressed sales, declined by 7.5% in March 2011 compared to March 2010. ... Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year priced declined by 0.96 percent in March 2011 compared to March 2010."

"The index is down 7.5% over the last year, and off 34.8% from the peak."

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/05/corelogic-house-prices-declined-15-in.html

your empty nesters must be exceptionally wealthy--if they're swapping a house in the burbs for a nyc apt with room for the children, let alone grandchildren, they'd better be prepared to add in a few mill--interesting you know several of these folk--rarified world yours is--but then again you live in a penthouse!!

and that old people remaining in stabilized/controlled rentals supports your comment that baby-boomers downsizing may not have an impact on RE is too harebrained to bother with

everyone vacates eventually.

"Case-Shiller Worse Than Expected: Home Prices Fell 3.6% In March"

"This month's report is marked by the confirmation of a double-dip in home prices across much of the nation. The National Index, the 20-City Composite and 12 MSAs all hit new lows with data reported through March 2011. The National Index fell 4.2% over the first quarter alone, and is down 5.1% compared to its year-ago level.
Home prices continue on their downward spiral with no relief in sight." says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. "Since December 2010, we have found an increasing number of markets posting new lows. In March 2011, 12 cities - Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland (OR) and Tampa - fell to their lowest levels as measured by the current housing cycle. Washington D.C. was the only MSA displaying positive trends with an annual growth rate of 4.3% and a 1.1% increase from its February level."

http://www.businessinsider.com/case-shiller-march-2011-5

It has been a year since this thread started.

"It has been a year since this thread started."

... and you've been great about staying on top of this data series and keeping the facts all in one place. Thanks pulaski.

"Robert Shiller: "Economy Is At A Tipping Point... A 10-25% Slump In Home Prices Would Not Surprise Me At All"

"The latest soundbite that should certainly add a few extra points to the S&P now that trading has reverted back to the bizarro zone is the most recent warning from Robert "Case-Shiller" Shiller who said that another 10-25% drop in real home prices would not surprise him at all... or anyone else for that matter except for all those who saw the "official" housing bottom back in 2009. "

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/robert-shiller-economy-tipping-point-10-25-slump-home-prices-would-not-surprise-me-all

"Case Shiller: Home Prices increase in April"

"The 10- and 20-City Composites were up 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively, in April versus March."

"Both indices are lower than a year ago; the 10-City Composite fell 3.1% and the 20-City Composite is down 4.0% from April 2010 levels."

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/06/case-shiller-home-prices-increase-in.html

So it's up. But it's down.

get in while you can!!

WTF you're talking about Marco? Can you explain the difference between a fvcktard and a self serving fvcktard?

ummmmm no. just havin fun..firecrackah firecrackah sis boom bahhhhh

"Case Shiller: Home Prices increase in May"

"Data through May 2011 ... showed a second consecutive month of increase in prices for the 10- and 20-City Composites. The 10- and 20-City Composites were up 1.1% and 1.0%, respectively, in May over April. Sixteen of the 20 MSAs and both Composites posted positive monthly increases; Detroit, Las Vegas and Tampa were down over the month and Phoenix was unchanged.
...
In May 2011, the 10- and 20-City Composites recorded annual returns of -3.6% and -4.5%, respectively. Both Composites and 11 MSAs – Atlanta, Dallas, Detroit, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, San Diego, Seattle and Tampa – saw their annual rates worsen in May compared to April. "

"There could be some confusion between the SA and NSA numbers, but this improvement is mostly seasonal."

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/07/case-shiller-home-prices-increase-in.html

"CoreLogic: Home Price Index increased 0.7% in June"

"Notes: Case-Shiller is the most followed house price index, but CoreLogic is used by the Federal Reserve and is followed by many analysts. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average of April, May and June (June weighted the most) and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA)."

"CoreLogic ... today released its June Home Price Index (HPI) which shows that home prices in the U.S. increased by 0.7 percent in June 2011 compared to May 2011, the third consecutive month-over-month increase. "

"The index was up 0.7% in June, and is down 6.8% over the last year, and off 31.7% from the peak."

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/08/corelogic-home-price-index-increased-07.html

"June Case Shiller Confirms Home Price Declines Continued, Down 4.5% Y/Y, 0.1% Lower In June"

"The much delayed Case Shiller update for June is out, and it is both worse and better than expectations: year over year, the number printed at a -4.5% decline, slightly better than consensus of -4.6%, while the month over month change was -0.1%, on expectations of an unchanged print. Stripping aside the noise means that the housing market is crawling along the bottom after double dipping months ago but at least it is not imploding. And since this report is nearly 3 months old, it does very little to indicate what is actually happening with the economy."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/june-case-shiller-confirms-home-price-declines-continued-down-45-yy-01-lower-june

our confident consumer certainly does not speak of a robust last 3 mos

CC has been plumetting now to a scary low of 44.5

yikes

QE 12 ????

Bullish!

Not to worry, WB - STOCKS AND OIL ARE SURGING!

And amazingly, some Fed members fail to see the correlation between increased food and oil prices at a time of record long-term unemployment - thank you, QE Stupid - and the grinding halt to the world economy.

bid spread gets wider in RE.... the fed is just grinding this shit out to infinity... better refresh my japanese

NY home prices up 0.9% month over month.

MoM movements aren't that helpful, S. YoY is what matters.

Bubbles die hard, petrzitz, but they do die.

japanese is a particularly tough language fro english-speakers to learn, tho it could be youll have a few years to brush up

"CoreLogic: Home Price Index increased 0.8% in July"

"( ) prices in the U.S. increased for the fourth consecutive month, inching up 0.8 percent on a month-over-month basis. On a year-over-year basis, however, national home prices, including distressed sales, declined by 5.2 percent in July 2011 compared to July 2010."

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/08/corelogic-home-price-index-increased-08.html

And adjusted for inflation they fell even more.

Bubbles take time to deflate - just look at the recent 7-day, 7% rise in the stock market, against some of the worst economic data to come out in years. Double-dip now a sure-thing, but the QEII Bubble rides on!

who says this internet poster is a english speaker and if by a few years, you mean 14.... agreed.

tiny bubbles...

And - as predicted! - stocks and oil surge again on lousy job numbers and lousy manufacturing numbers.

Bubbles die hard.

"And - as predicted! - stocks and oil surge again on lousy job numbers and lousy manufacturing numbers."

Pretty funny how Steve is trying to line himself up to take credit for calling it no matter if stocks go up or down.

Then again, given his lousy track record, why not...

steve, let's boil down your incessant stock-market chatter to its essentials:

a) Stocks go up = Total bs, predicated on nothing! Huge double-dip is imminent!
b) Stocks go down = Told you so!

Ah - EDDIE WILSON! Took the bait!

How's that "putting your profit back to work" working out for you, the day before the Dow crashed 2,000 points?

HAHAHAHAHA!

And I did - quite clearly - predict that stocks were unstable, and were very likely to go higher.

My lousy record? Viz. above - your "putting your profits back to work."

What an arse.

And - if you want the rest of my "prediction" - I think we're looking at a bear pennant right now, which given that market fell 11% in one month is not all that hard to see. I think without question we will retest the August lows ... what happens beyond that will depend on the Fed, among other things. A good chance that we retest the 2009 lows.

Funny how silent Eddie Wilson was right after he reinvested all of his fictitious profit THE DAY BEFORE THE US WAS DOWNGRADED! Then chimes in when stocks have a mini-rally after the worst performance in August ever.

Funny how silent Eddie W. is when things aren't going his way. Sort of like the weakling in grade school who picks a fight only when his big brother is standing nearby.

And that chime-in by blowjb: IGNORED!

I even remember SPECIFICALLY saying that the market was too volatile for the retail investor, and was laughed at by blowjb ... pre-ignore.

"I think without question we will retest the August lows ... what happens beyond that will depend on the Fed, among other things. A good chance that we retest the 2009 lows."

Re-test the August lows? Frankly, that's a blip on the radar. 2009 lows are worlds apart. And that's what you've been repeating ad nauseum.

"I even remember SPECIFICALLY saying that the market was too volatile for the retail investor, and was laughed at"

You're way too fixated on day-to-day movements. And I don't think you really get the whole volatility does not measure risk thing.

"Case Shiller: Home Prices increased Seasonally in July"

"Data through June 2011, released today by S&P Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices ... showed a fourth consecutive month of increases for the 10- and 20-City Composites, with both up 0.9% in July over June."

"As S&P noted, prices increased in 17 of 20 cities not seasonally adjusted (NSA). However seasonally adjusted, prices only increased in 9 cities.

Most of this prices increase was mostly seasonal. "

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/09/case-shiller-home-prices-increased.html

"SHILLER: House Prices Probably Won’t Hit Bottom For Years"

"The numbers weren't terrible--on a seasonally adjusted basis, July was basically the same as June--but one of the creators of the index, Professor Robert Shiller of Yale University, isn't taking much solace in them.

The economy has deteriorated significantly since July, Professor Shiller observes, and he suspects that the housing market has followed suit.

And, from a broader perspective, house prices are still down more than 4% year over year."

"House prices won't necessarily plunge from here in nominal terms, but in real terms--after adjusting for inflation--they could still drop significantly, Professor Shiller says.

And the bottom might not arrive for years."

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/shiller-house-prices-probably-won-t-hit-bottom-162755874.html

The Streeteasy condo index is down after a nice Spring run-up, but interestingly enough, what I call the Broker's confidence index (average condo listing price) has stayed at the high plateau for the last 3 month. Either July is a fluke, or the brokers haven't gotten the memo.

>>>the brokers haven't gotten the memo.

They probably got the memo, the just don't understand it.

Most Brokers don't have a clue.

(just read what that dope J hones posts)

Brooks,
What would you have brokers do?
Price fair to sell?
Brokers are sales people whose job is to change the hands of ownership.
A sellers broker is to sell for as much as possible or as soon as possible, or at any price.
A buyers brokers job is to get you to buy anything at any price as soon as possible.
Brokers only eat from closings.
Why demand such high standards.
Do you hold the deli owner who sold you New York Post responsible for the content?

>>> Why demand such high standards.
I don't-- I like to make people aware of the potential Scum$%bags they are dealing with.

>>Brokers only eat from closings.
I know..

>>Brokers are sales people whose job is to change the hands of ownership.
>>>What would you have brokers do?
They'd make more money if they new the market-- ie priced accordindly-- properties would move faster so more transcations. This they seem to dumb to understand

>>>A sellers broker is to sell for as much as possible or as soon as possible, or at any price.
A buyers brokers job is to get you to buy anything at any price as soon as possible.

I would use a buyer/seller broker bcs I would have less interaction with them. ie give them a fair price and let them fight it out.

"CoreLogic: Home Price Index declined 0.4% in August"

"CoreLogic ... today released its August Home Price Index (HPI) which shows that home prices in the U.S. decreased 0.4 percent on a month-over-month basis, the first monthly decline in four months. According to the CoreLogic HPI, national home prices, including distressed sales, also declined on a year-over-year basis by 4.4 percent in August 2011 compared to August 2010. This follows a decline of 4.8 percent in July 2011 compared to July 2010. Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices declined by 0.7 percent in August 2011 compared to August 2010 and by 1.7 percent in July 2011 compared to July 2010. ..."

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/10/corelogic-home-price-index-declined-04.html

Home prices fall more than expected

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-25/home-prices-in-u-s-cities-fall-more-than-forecast-3-8-case-shiller-says.html

Bullish!

"Case Shiller: Home Prices decline in September"

"The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 3.9% decline in the third quarter of 2011 over the third quarter of 2010. In September, the 10- and 20-City Composites posted annual rates of decline of 3.3% and 3.6%, respectively. Eighteen of the 20 MSAs and both monthly Composites had negative annual rates in September 2011, the only exceptions being Detroit and Washington DC.

"Home prices drifted lower in September and the third quarter," says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. "The National Index was down 3.9% versus the third quarter of 2010 and up only 0.1% from the previous quarter. Three cities posted new index lows in September 2011 - Atlanta, Las Vegas and Phoenix. Seventeen of the 20 cities and both Composites were down for the
month."

"Prices are now falling again, and the Case-Shiller Composite 20 (SA) hit a new post-bubble low."

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/case-shiller-home-prices-decline-in.html

"Case Shiller: House Prices fall to new post-bubble lows in October (seasonally adjusted)"

"Data through October 2011, released today by S&P Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices ... showed decreases of 1.1% and 1.2% for the 10- and 20-City Composites in October vs. September. Nineteen of the 20 cities covered by the indices also saw home prices decrease over the month. The 10- and 20-City Composites posted annual returns of -3.0% and -3.4% versus October 2010, respectively.

“There was weakness in the monthly statistics, as 19 of the cities posted price declines in October over September,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. “Eleven of the cities and both composites fell by 1.0% or more during the month."

"The NSA indexes are only about 2% above the March 2011 lows - and these indexes will hit new lows in the next few months since prices are falling again. Using the SA data, the Case-Shiller indexes are now at new post-bubble lows!"

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/12/case-shiller-house-prices-fall-to-new.html

"In 2006, just as the Housing market was peaking, the NYT ran this graphic of the 100-year Case Shiller chart. It showed how radically overvalued Housing had become.

Two years later, TBP reader Steve Barry updated that graphic, including the projected Home Price mean reversion. ( )"

Its time to update this for 2011. Note the 2009 tax credit wiggle:"

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/04/case-shiller-100-year-chart-2011-update/

interesting

What I find most interesting is Riversider's take on that graphic. He takes the peaky-peak bubble point of 2006, references that against 1945, and uses the 1.2% annual inflation-adjusted gain as justification for long-term above-inflation future expectations of 1-2% annually for housing.

According to DealBook today, MorganStanley is laying off 1,600 people, 580 in NYC.
"The layoffs at Morgan Stanley are the latest round of severe cutbacks on Wall Street, which has suffered a year of humbling returns and massive cost-cutting. Citigroup recently announced it would shed 4,500 jobs. Bank of America and Goldman Sachs, too, have begun carrying out major staff reductions. In June, Goldman told the New York Department of Labor that it would layoff 230 New York workers through March 2012.

The job losses have taken a toll on New York, the center of the financial industry. The securities industry in New York City lost nearly $3 billion in the third quarter, according to a report released this month by the New York State comptroller. In October, the comptroller disclosed that an estimated 10,000 Wall Street workers could lose their jobs by the end of 2012."

Bullish!

And speaking of bullish -- I heard there may be another round of Soc Gen layoffs in January

Relax people, home prices are not down. The NY Case Shiller High Tier (over $463,441) declined less than 1% year over year. It's only the lower tier price ranges that are seeing big declines.

The days of the large declines are behind us. From this point forward, we will be bouncing along the bottom. Again, high tier prices are essentially flat year over year, so that is evidence of a bottom right there. Lower tiered priced homes will bottom sometime in the near future. They are declinging the most since they saw the biggest increase during the boom years.

=============>
I so fking stoopid======>
How stoopid are you?======>
I become a RE BORKER in NJ!

FLMAOZzzzzzz...... siesta time for Euro crisis almost over... better get that last duppio in and a little biscotti....

Hope is good, but not realistic

I know trusting info from NAR on housing is like trusting a NOKIA funded study on cell phone use causing cancer, but here it is anyway;

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45815017

Is this just about math or can these numbers be massaged?

Keith Burkhardt
The Burkhardt Group

pulaski et al: As has been pointed out before, the graph on the ritholtz blog is misleading as it mixes different data sources:

http://blog.jparsons.net/2011/04/housing-bubble-graph-fail.html

If you look at the actual graph on Shiller's homepage, current prices look much closer to any "long-term trend":

http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/Fig2-1.xls

Two months ago, the conforming limit dropped. Like it or not the government market is responsible for 90% of lending, something the private market is not able to do at the present time, the conclusion is this puts downward pressure on homes.

"Case Shiller: House Prices fall to new post-bubble lows in November"

"Data through November 2011, released today by S&P Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices ... showed declines of 1.3% for both the 10- and 20-City Composites in November over October. For a second consecutive month, 19 of the 20 cities covered by the indices also saw home prices decrease. The 10- and 20-City composites posted annual returns of -3.6% and -3.7% versus November 2010, respectively. These are worse than the -3.2% and -3.4% respective rates reported for October."

""Despite continued low interest rates and better real GDP growth in the fourth quarter, home prices continue to fall. Weakness was seen as 19 of 20 cities saw average home prices decline in November over October,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. “... Nationally, home prices are lower than a year ago. The 10-City Composite was down 3.6% and the 20-City was down 3.7% compared to November 2010. The trend is down and there are few, if any, signs in the numbers that a turning point is close at hand." "

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/01/case-shiller-house-prices-fall-to-new.html

So bullish!!!! NYC metro continues to fall!!!!! MoM, YoY, fall, fall, fall, for like 57 of the last 60 months.

This can ONLY mean good news for Manhattan, since as we all know, people never under any circumstance consider the large and growing price gap between Manhattan and non-Manhattan when purchasing a home!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.standardandpoors.com/spf/docs/case-shiller/CSHomePrice_Release_013118.pdf

On page 3 of the pdf, when it says for New York that the Nov 2011 level is at 165.66, which year is 100?

Jan 2000

"Which year is 100?"

That was the year Trajan became emperor and founded roman colonies in North Africa...

"Zillow: House prices declined 4.7% in 2011, Forecasts 3.7% decline in 2012"

"The Zillow Real Estate Market Reports, released today, show home values decreased 1.1 percent from the third to the fourth quarter of 2011 to $146,900. On an annual basis, this represents a 4.7 percent decline. "

"“While it may be disconcerting for homeowners to see values nationally fell at a fairly rapid clip at the end of last year, that trend won’t last through 2012,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. “The fourth quarter’s weak performance proves that pronouncements of a bottom in home values have been premature, but the good news is that 2012 will prove to be a better year than 2011. In fact, many markets show signs of a bottom this year, although a bottom may continue to elude the nation as a whole in 2012. Fortunately, against a backdrop of modest further declines in home values, we expect that home sales will pick up briskly this year as affordable prices bring more buyers to the table – especially investors and second-home buyers.”"

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/02/zillow-house-prices-declined-47-in-2011.html

"No Housing Recovery - Case Shiller Shows 8th Consecutive Month Of House Price Declines"

"Little that can be added here. The December Case Shiller came, saw, and shut up all those who keep calling for a home price recovery. The Index printed at 136.71 on expectations of 137.11, with the prior revised to 138.24. The top 20 City composite was down -0.5% on expectations of a 0.35% drop. 18 out of 20 MSAs saw monthly declines in December over November, with just the worst of the worst - Miami and Phoenix - posting a dead cat bounce, rising 0.2% and 0.8% respectively. And granted the data is delayed, but the fact that we have now had 8 consecutive months of home price declines even with mortgage rates persistently at record lows, and the double dip in housing more than obvious, can we finally shut up about a housing bottom? Because as Case Shiller's David Blitzer says: "If anything it looks like we might have reentered a period of decline as we begin 2012.” QED"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/no-housing-recovery-case-shiller-shows-8th-consecutive-month-house-price-declines

holy crap. I understand Manhattan - we started late, and the industry that was a third of our incomes is being gutted - but the rest of the US... STILL.

Wowzuh.

"Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent fall to late '90s Levels"

"Case-Shiller, CoreLogic and others report nominal house prices. It is also useful to look at house prices in real terms (adjusted for inflation) and as a price-to-rent ratio.

Below are three graphs showing nominal prices (as reported), real prices and a price-to-rent ratio. Real prices, and the price-to-rent ratio, are back to late 1998 and early 2000 levels depending on the index."

"In real terms, all appreciation in the '00s - and more - is gone."

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/02/real-house-prices-and-price-to-rent.html

"Case Shiller: House Prices fall to new post-bubble lows in January"

"Data through January 2012, released today by S&P Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices ... showed annual declines of 3.9% and 3.8% for the 10- and 20-City Composites, respectively. Both composites saw price declines of 0.8% in the month of January. Sixteen of 19 MSAs also saw home prices decrease over the month; only Miami, Phoenix and Washington DC home prices went up versus December 2011."

“Despite some positive economic signs, home prices continued to drop. The 10- and 20- City Composites and eight cities – Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, Las Vegas, New York, Portland, Seattle and Tampa – made new lows,”

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/03/case-shiller-house-prices-fall-to-new.html

Me, a semi-perma bear, thinks we have hit absolute bottom.

Thanks for keeping this thread updated pulaski

Streeteasy NYC Condo Index up MoM and YoY.

It's funny to go back to the first few posts on this thread, where people mocked so-called bears for DARING to think NYC real estate could go any lower.

We wish we were back at those levels now :/

Welcome back to str33easy, Al_Assad.

Nihao. Flmaozz on Ali's post... No not that one. The 1st post after the OP.

Flmaozzz.

Funny. 99% of the reason we haven't had a complete meltdown in nyc is bc 80% of the sellers listen to the 'borkers' who keep telling them the mkt is going to be ok. Now what happens when some lemming get smart and try to exit with at least some of their bubble loot?

Hate to be the last lemming asking $1mm for my studio.

The end cometh.

jason10006, thoughts on why you think we've hit the absolute bottom ? thx

"CoreLogic: House Price Index falls to new post-bubble low in February, Rate of decline slows"

"[CoreLogic February Home Price Index (HPI®) report] shows national home prices, including distressed sales, declined on a year-over-year basis by 2.0 percent in February 2012 and by 0.8 percent compared to January 2012, the seventh consecutive monthly decline."

"House prices, based on data through February, continue to decline, but at a decreasing rate. The deceleration in the pace of decline is a first step toward ultimately growing again," said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. "Excluding distressed sales, we already see modest price appreciation month over month in January and February."

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/04/corelogic-house-price-index-falls-to.html

"Case Shiller Misses Expectations, Unadjusted Home Prices Lowest In A Decade"

"The February Case Shiller number is out and represents the latest high frequency economic miss, with the 20 City Seasonally Adjusted number printing up 0.15% on expectations of 0.20%. The good news, of course, is that this is the first improvement in the Seasonally Adjusted Top 20 MSA Series since April 2011. The bad news is that this was all warm weather driven, and courtesy of seasonal adjustments: the February data declined once again, this time by 0.8%, the 6th consecutive decline in a row, and the lowest number in a decade.

Furthermore, the data would be uglier if it were not for prior period downward revisions in what seems to be a page right out of the BLS propaganda playbook. Needless to say, since this data is two months delayed, as many will recall in February the market was soaring on hopes that this time, just once, the "recovery" will be self-sustaining. Then the LTRO aftereffects fizzled, and everything went to hell again.

Finally putting it all into perspective, the February data puts the Top 20 City data back on par with price levels last seen in early 2003. But hey - at least we have a very brief and transitory seasonally adjusted upswing."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/case-shiller-misses-expectations-unadjusted-home-prices-lowest-decade

bullish

I'd like to see more 2003 pricing in NYC but alas...we're far from it.

Feels like there is a little bit of a disconnect. This graph shows we are at 2004 prices. Not sure if that is true when looking at the market.

http://ycharts.com/indicators/case_shiller_home_price_index_new_york

"GARY SHILLING: Home Prices Will Plummet 20% From Here"

"Despite growing consensus that it is now cheaper to buy a home than rent one, Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co. says by previous standards home prices are still high relative to rents.

In his latest editorial in The Wall Street Journal, Shilling writes that while home prices have fallen 34 percent since their peak in early 2006, they are not cheap if prices continue to fall:

"But even if homeownership was cheaper than renting, as some claim, buying a house now would be a disastrous investment if prices fall another 20% or more."

http://www.businessinsider.com/gary-shilling-home-prices-are-high-compared-to-rents-2012-5

sledge, the miller samuel numbers say 2004 in real dollars....

who the heck is gary shilling? somewhereelse's roommate?

and how else to make a name for yourself but to call for a dramatic event. remember Qualcom to 1000/sh target?

Gary is actually going off Robert Shiller's numbers. Hopefully you know who he is...

(and he made his name with calling two events... after a pretty good career to start)