Anyone tempted by the Florida Panhandle?
Started by PMG
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 1322
Member since: Jan 2008
Discussion about
St Joe Co. "JOE" owns 577,000 acres of land in the Florida Panhandle, most of it near the coast. 300,000 acres are within 40 miles of the new Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, which just opened with flights by Southwest and Delta. At the current stock price of $27.50, you are basically buying land at $4,420 an acre. Okay, it's not Manhattan, but anyone enticed to put a little money to work on a cheap land / Gulf spill clean-up play? At the Florida bubble peak the stock traded at $83. March 2009 it bottomed at $15.
Whether or not you believe that global warming is manmade, for whatever reason, it's happening. Florida Panhandle = bad longterm investment. Orlando will be beach front real estate in a few decades...
But if the oil spill gets contained, the stock could rebound to the $37 range pretty quickly. That's where it was a month or two ago when Baron's ran a piece with a portfolio mgr with a very large stake. Whatever happens in the long run, I don't care. I'll take a 30%+ short term gain and invest somewhere else for the long term.
It's not an investment like a home with high transaction costs. You don't need to buy for the long term.
I don't know anything about JOE, but when was the last time a cleanup of this magnitude, or any large-scale project went better than expected?
Printer: Never. Valdez. Cheronobyl. Katrina. That TN town buried under coal ash. The list goes on and on.
better than expected is plugging the spill. The mess will last a long time. But this is land that wont be developed for 50 years and the mess will long be forgotten. You people aren't looking at the trading opportunity.
I made 4% on today's investment in JOE. I only started the discussion because I see potential quick upside on a real estate play. Buy 1000 shares and you "own" over 6 acres of undeveloped land with virtually no transaction costs.
Bruce Berkowitz like JOE - that's as good an endorsement as you can likely find.