Whether you're a bull or a bear, a double-dip zealot or a V-recovery fanatic, you probably saw some sales in 2009 that now look like missed oportunities for buyers. With the market stabilized - at least for the moment - I'd like to offer a tip of the hat to a few brave souls who bought smart during the dark days. Herewith, some "Best Buys" from two years of watching trades in 2+BR apartments on... [more]
Whether you're a bull or a bear, a double-dip zealot or a V-recovery fanatic, you probably saw some sales in 2009 that now look like missed oportunities for buyers.
With the market stabilized - at least for the moment - I'd like to offer a tip of the hat to a few brave souls who bought smart during the dark days. Herewith, some "Best Buys" from two years of watching trades in 2+BR apartments on the Upper West Side. (The list is split into multiple posts because SE flags link-heavy entries as spam.)
I hope others will post their own lists, for whatever market sector piques their interest.
250 West 94th #10H - Big six overlooking Pomander Walk needed a kitchen, but was a deal at $1.435MM.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/349613-coop-250-west-94th-street-upper-west-side-new-york
201 West 89th (Chester Court)#12A - High-floor corner six in a well-run building surprisingly dropped under $1.6MM.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/385630-coop-201-west-89th-street-upper-west-side-new-york
285 Riverside Drive #12B - Nice Candela six with river views for under $1.9MM.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/394942-coop-285-riverside-drive-manhattan-valley-new-york[less]
Oh forgot the ' : ) ' face lest I be reamed by the regulars!
Nice to see you back w81. Let's not call a bottom yet shall we? What's your best prediction for fall 10'? Flat or up or down? You are a 'professional' now, no?
Great info, West81st, as always. All above my pay grade, but fascinating info nonetheless. Nothing quite so spectacular to contribute from the low end of the market.
Care to make any prognostications on whether the declines have ended for the time being?
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Response by w67thstreet
over 15 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008
Shouldn't this be on your comps thread. Mkt had a bounce, like all bubble deflating mkts. These are the comps from which I will be bidding lower, not comps from which I will bid higher in a deflating mkt, no?
Tell 'me again. R u a girl or a boy?
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Response by downtownrenter
over 15 years ago
Posts: 48
Member since: Dec 2009
This closed at $1.8 million at the very nadir of the crash and might have been the deal of the year downtown.
11C, which is smaller and doesn't have a view, just closed at $2.35 MM. Based on that comp, 12B could legitimately go for at least $2.7, if not more -- a 50% gain in a year.
We looked at it but didn't have the guts to pull the trigger. Stupid, stupid, stupid...
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Response by West81st
over 15 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008
Hi, w67. Not calling a bottom. I personally think a double-dip is the most likely scenario. No idea of the timing or severity.
The monkey wrench in this market is wealth. Normal real estate markets are driven by incomes and credit; wealth plays a much smaller role. In Manhattan, wealth seems to take the wheel, and other factors are almost along for the ride. Whether that's sustainable is the billion-dollar question. We don't even know how much wealth is out there, although I read somewhere that there are a lot of millionaires in this town.
2) $1MM 1bdrms on 42nd and 12 ave, makes $5MM 2 bdrm on CPW a bargain.... a $500K 1bdrm on 42nd and 12 ave, makes the $5MM 2bdrm CPW a foolz trade.
The days of WEALTH begetting wealth (a bubble), is over at least in RE. The fact YOU SEE so much "wealth" in NYC to pull ALL CASH trades in NYC 3 yrs into this bubble popping should tell you HOW ENORMOUS the BUBBLE was....
Given above... your "great" trades in a year will be commonplace in a year, foolish in 2 and LMAOzzzz funny in 3. From one westie to another...
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Response by julia
over 15 years ago
Posts: 2841
Member since: Feb 2007
w81st...they look great but what about in a lower price point.
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Response by West81st
over 15 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008
Downtownrenter: I feel your pain. Never saw the apartment, but what a comp-buster.
As you note w81, the Ardsley continues to struggle. a 1700 sq ft in need of renovation. CPW address sitting after a busted contract at $1.575MM making your entire "theory" of "ones that got away" seem a little "brokerish," no?
I mean.. there it sits for anyone to buy a full year after all the beauties got away... how could this be? Can you explain how your 6DE is a deal? Shouldn't that mean, I should be able to use 6DE to bid lower on the 6MN at 251 days on market? I'm so confused, I missed the boat, again?
what's funny is I am hearing alot of these won't close.... and basically the brokers will re-list after Sept 1... you think they'll want more $$ for them? FLMAOz.... sorry liked you better as a pure "comps" guy with no shillery... BUY NOW OR BE PRICED OUT FOREVER!
"ONES THAT GOT AWAY!" I don't think so...
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Response by West81st
over 15 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008
W67: The first three or four entries on my list are apartments that I'm quite certain would sell for about 10% more today. I'm less sure about others, and 320 CPW might be the weakest entry on the list. By the way, the Ardsley has a number of other intriguing price-choppers, including #9G. (http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/491943-coop-320-central-park-west-upper-west-side-new-york).
I agree that the modest gains of the past year could easily be reversed; but for many buyers who were looking in 2009 and continue to look today, these 2009 transactions have the appearance of opportunity knocking. They might lose that patina by 2011 or 2012.
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Response by West81st
over 15 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008
dwell: If you're OK with 94th and Lex, I can imagine 1.25MM, just based on trends that are already in place.. Park and Fifth seem to have stabilized, and the stringent entry requirements of the top coops make distress relatively rare. Of course, another hit to the financial industry could be catastrophic for the UES market.
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Response by dwell
over 15 years ago
Posts: 2341
Member since: Jul 2008
Thank you, Hon, but too far north. S'ok, I vait.
But, wow, am really enjoying your into:
490 WEA #9B
Listed at $2,450,000
Sale recorded for $1,500,000
wow.
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Response by dwell
over 15 years ago
Posts: 2341
Member since: Jul 2008
I meant info
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Response by spinnaker1
over 15 years ago
Posts: 1670
Member since: Jan 2008
Wow westy I think you hit that soft spot on the top of bubba's head.
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Response by squarefoot
over 15 years ago
Posts: 49
Member since: Oct 2008
hi w81
i checked about six links before i stopped, wondering if you are serious or have an agenda, these might be good deals for someone like tina fey (is that really her unit?) who makes the same jokes over and over and collects a billion dollars for it, but for someone who has to do critical thinking for most of the working day, and makes only thousands of dollars for it, it think these units are not such great deals. after all, i dont want to spend my hard earned money for an old ugly boxy apartment with no outdoor space and a high maintenance paying for about ten too many staff members and a crumbling structure, not to mention the douchebag board members who are rotting on the inside for a variety of reasons.
that being said, i think the best deals were in bk in williamsburg and red hook,
i negociated two great deals 20% off asking (around $1mil) and was about to choose when my girlfriend (now ex) lost her job.
anyway, anyone who thinks the asking is reality really needs to try to negociate. i know some of the units are gorgeous, but if you can keep an extra $150k, it is that much more beautiful.
like the thread in concept though.
see you later alligator
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Response by Salut
over 15 years ago
Posts: 132
Member since: May 2010
Hello west81st,
what, if anything, do you have on pre-war penthouses?
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Response by jonwarner15
over 15 years ago
Posts: 9
Member since: Jul 2010
West81st, what does it mean to you that the market has stabilized for the moment? If the apartments listed above would be up 10% from when they were purchased, how does that benefit anyone if the cost to sell is around 10% anyway?
West67th, not all of your links seem to work but you did post an interesting example at 320 Central Park West with a very long time on the market basically proves, in addition to the broker fee, this 10% cost to sell something when you factor in the time and personal uncertainty. Only perhaps the elderly with a second home can afford a place on the market for so long, right?
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Response by urbandigs
over 15 years ago
Posts: 3629
Member since: Jan 2006
nice thread W81st
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Response by front_porch
over 15 years ago
Posts: 5312
Member since: Mar 2008
great thread! You are truly the king of the UWS Classic 6.
As far as things sitting at the Ardsley, it has those little kitchens tucked in the back, which doesn't tend to suit my clients' contemporary needs, and I guess others feel the same.
ali r.
DG Neary Realty
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Response by West81st
over 15 years ago
Posts: 5564
Member since: Jan 2008
squarefoot: Your description of a typical UWS coop is largely accurate. For whatever reason, a lot of us love those crumbling old buildings - noisy pipes, waterbugs (in the basement and on the Board), leaky roofs and all.
jonwarner15: I didn't mean to suggest that any of these 2009 buyers could profitably flip their apartments in 2010. Some might turn a profit if they sold today, but even on a leveraged basis (for those who borrowed at all) the black ink would be scant after expenses. The good news for these buyers is that they probably got their apartments cheaper than if they had waited 6-12 months. Could they have done better in 2011 or 2012? Maybe, but we're talking about family apartments, and most families only have a span of about ten-fifteen years from the point where they can afford a home like this to the time when their kids start moving out. A home delayed can quickly become a home denied. Add the fact that a lot of these buyers probably waited out the boom, unwilling or unable to pay peak prices, and you can understand why waiting indefinitely for a second leg of market decline wasn't an attractive option.
actually...now see this was listed at $1.1?? Must have been a total wreck?
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Response by front_porch
over 15 years ago
Posts: 5312
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Saw #12A with clients. A complete wreck with gorgeous views, and there was a fight to get it.
ali r.
DG Neary Realty
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Response by front_porch
over 15 years ago
Posts: 5312
Member since: Mar 2008
^^I mean 789 WEA, #12A, not 255 West 84th #12A
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Response by apt23
over 15 years ago
Posts: 2041
Member since: Jul 2009
W 81: I'm still weeping that 285 Riverside never held as a comp for that area. Remember to come get me if that nabe ever moves close to that price again. And I still marvel at Tina Fey's nerve to lowball like that for that space. A lesson for all.
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Response by spinnaker1
over 15 years ago
Posts: 1670
Member since: Jan 2008
Both the wealth and the wait factors seem to be playing a bigger role in NY real estate than the sluggish economy at the moment. How deep do the pockets go and how long are people willing to wait for the best possible prices? It's like trying to get a handle on shadow inventory, yet infinitely more difficult. Is it possible the residual wealth and the impatience of buyers will sustain the bloated RE market indefinitely? There sure seems to be no shortage of wealthy, intelligent buyers placing bets on all sides of this argument. I wonder though, are more people betting for price stability or against it?
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Response by Wbottom
over 15 years ago
Posts: 2142
Member since: May 2010
as a douple dipper,wbottomer, i believe the market will offer opportunities like this one again--but i must confess a bit of "coulda, shoulda, woulda" for this one--i think it traded 2.6--appreciate if someone who subscribes can confirm--zonal AC--low mntnce---all sortsa light---spacious nice renovation---solid, if not so aesthetically plsing for park ave, coop
Great thread, West81st--We came thisclose to putting in a bid on 285 RSD but were expecting twins at the time (a girl and a boy) and were concerned about long-term potential so decided to turn our focus to classic 8s. Sadly the babies were born early and didn't survive so we're back looking at smaller places.
I wanted to bid on 340 Riverside. It needed a total gut. I took my architect (who is very reasonable) and she said that it would take at least a million maybe more to fix electric, gut bathrooms and kitchen, fix squeaks in floors, skim coat walls, new air conditioners, etc. . And that is with basic appliances since there were no usable appliances in kitchen. If we wanted higher end appliances add another 100k plus. So that would have brought price to $3M. Since it wasn't really 1900 sq ft that would bring the price to almost $1800 psf. So when you add the headache, not such a great deal. But beautiful view.
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Response by Wbottom
over 15 years ago
Posts: 2142
Member since: May 2010
have a healthy, happy, full nest in the future
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Response by bramstar
over 15 years ago
Posts: 1909
Member since: May 2008
Thanks apt and W.
Yeah, apt, you're correct with regards to the work needed on 340 RSD--it was definitely in bad condition. We looked only glancingly at it and didn't get an estimate on reno costs. $1M would definitely have soured the deal for us :-). But yeah, the view was amazing!
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Response by spinnaker1
over 15 years ago
Posts: 1670
Member since: Jan 2008
apt23 - not sure why I seem to be following you around today.
With your quote of a $500-600/psf reno I guess I can understand the 100k (plus) appliances, but for the life of me I don't have any idea where you might find those. I'm curious. Also curious what difference 100K makes to an estate bedroom.
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Response by spinnaker1
over 15 years ago
Posts: 1670
Member since: Jan 2008
I mean, I don't doubt that's what you were quoted but that number seemed to roll far too easily off your tongue. It's like market apartment meets bubblicious architect.
Wow - 9 room corner unit estate w/ CP park views is a deal at $5.65MM. Hmm... coulda had a townhouse for less. I know, it's not everyone's thing. these "deals" are making me weep.
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Response by apt23
over 15 years ago
Posts: 2041
Member since: Jul 2009
Spin. I bought my country house from a major record producer who really tricked up the kitchen and I got very used to it. So I wanted the 60" wolf range which is $11,000 and that doesn't even include the hood. He also had a real restaurant scalamander (sp?) which I loved but was willing to forego. The sub zero pro fridge with 4 drawers I think was about $13,000. I wanted Italian cabinetry and we were going to turn the storage area and maids room into the kitchen so I wanted full sized washer dryer (and a mangle) and will never use any other dishwasher except Miele. It adds up quickly.
The architect is truly reasonable. But this apt was a mess. Broken bathroom pipes in the bedroom walls, etc. I could have saved a lot if I didn't want the floors replaced and a lot of people could have lived with them but I can't stand the squeaking if it was going to be our "final" apt. All the walls needed to be skim coated cause they had years and years of paint layers. Plus she said we had to re do all the electric wiring. I imagine anyone else would have skipped the wiring and lived with the floors and done an adequate reno for 500 - 600k But why have a $2.5M apt with squeaky floors?
I never said anything about the bedroom and 100K so don't know what you mean. And, we have to stop meeting like this. I don't want to incur Truth's wrath.
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Response by front_porch
over 15 years ago
Posts: 5312
Member since: Mar 2008
bram, eh, vale of tears, but we're going to the beach a lot..tx for asking.
ali
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Response by w67thstreet
over 15 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008
w81 "A home delayed can quickly become a home denied."
Let me put it into stevehjx translator "BUY NOW OR BE PRICED OUT FOREVER!"
FLMAOZzzzzzz.... how much did you get for your soul? man......6%
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Response by w67thstreet
over 15 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008
uwsmom, I'm with you... at $5.6MM... it's a townhome w/ car we go....
and yes these "deals" are making me salivate, cause those are the comps with which I WILL BID LOWER... FLMAOZzzzz
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Response by Wbottom
over 15 years ago
Posts: 2142
Member since: May 2010
hey six seven, easy on eight one
there's another good dip coming, but that doesnt mean there werent some good pukes in 2009
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Response by w67thstreet
over 15 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008
My links are not broken, the work around for not being able to list multiple listings on SE's spam filter is to put it in as ONE LINK,(new link at every "http"). Therez another lesson for you w81.
I thought it more poetic to put a tons of listings in one post to overwhelm, w81's contention that the mkt has "turned." He's already backpedaled and said only 4 of his first listings are true bargains.... my take, 4 outliers in a bouncing market with significant drops that will eat away "10%" bubble bounce equity cushion bf thanksgiving 10'.
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Response by w67thstreet
over 15 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008
wbottom, I hear ya, but I gotz to play my role.. .and w81 gotz to play his role....
This is so so 2005-2007 when I was in the mkt for a flex 3 cause I got priced outta true 3... and then we found out who was wearing trousers when the tide went out...
My spidey financial sense is telling me a "a few brave tina fey, noble Krugman" who bought at the height of fear when Goldman/Citibank was this close to being bk, and is after a year out "maybe" 10% up on an illiquid 10% roundtrip "asset" IS way way way too soon to be calling these brave souls financial geniuses! F'k to me they are complete morons who put in "I don't give a sh*t money" into the greatest deflating nyc re bubble in my lifetime. So call me skeptical, but I wish I could've yelled at all the borkers in 2007, how many of them admit that they had ZERO clue about the bubble ... and now w81 is saying "weren't these great bargains?!!!!?!"
Bargains, the sale signs are still up. sorry, he got his broker hat on, I got my w67 hat on.
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Response by bramstar
over 15 years ago
Posts: 1909
Member since: May 2008
So sorry to hear that, Ali. If you ever feel like commiserating feel free to drop me a note at bramstar at gmail.com
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Response by Miette
over 15 years ago
Posts: 316
Member since: Jan 2009
w67th: You're such a bore sometimes. We know what "your role" is. Most posters who have been here any length of time could recite what you have to say before you say it. Do you have to hijack an interesting thread that obviously took w81 time and thought to compile?
I think this is a great thread. I looked at some of the places that w81 mentions in early 2009. Some of those December/January 2009 open houses were ghost towns at any price.
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Response by bjw2103
over 15 years ago
Posts: 6236
Member since: Jul 2007
Miette, amen. Not to mention that some of the apts w67th listed have actually closed despite his comments. This is an otherwise great thread. Anyone able to pick out a few non-UWS properties?
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Response by uwsmom
over 15 years ago
Posts: 1945
Member since: Dec 2008
it is a fun thread and i feel very lucky that W81 is most interested in UWS 2+ br apartments. did i say luck? yeah, well, there you have it.
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Response by w67thstreet
over 15 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008
Miette/bjw... knock yourselves out. Put in 2009 closings that you think were bargains of the year....
Here is the logic of the thread. w81 contention is there were some real "bargains" in 2009, aren't they sitting pretty buying when no-one else was.
Here is some economic theories that are relevant:
1) given an illiquid market, bid and asks get very wide (i.e. they got nothing more than market at 2009);
2) given an inflating market, trades that occur later in a time line should occur at higher real/nominal terms, after transaction costs (w/ 10% transaction costs, even w81 greatest bargain is flat, yoy);
3) statistical models account for outliers in any market. Given the gyrations of the market from 2001 to 2010 where average PSF went from $600psf to $2000, back down to $1300 (spking of C6 uws), the standard deviation is about $200psf, so w81 examples are WELL WITHIN what you would expect in a financial model that included a "bubble."
4) What will impact C6 UWS homes going forward that will reflate it? NONE that my years in banking, finance, commercial RE, education, nyc re transaction experience can see.
w81, hey lookie, I'm a RE borker and I use these bargains to show that the mkt is up 10% from 2009!
w67, hey lookie I'm a financial businessman who doesn't hold open houses for a living and those 6 units are well within the norms of a bubble bursting and are completely expected and should not be used to negotiate against yourself or to pump the NYC RE up.
It's bad logic, bad finance, bad education and just ripe for lemmings... just sayin.....
but pls continue to post "bargains" of 2009.
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Response by spinnaker1
over 15 years ago
Posts: 1670
Member since: Jan 2008
Hi bubba, I thought this was a particularly poignant deal today. $1500+psf and going strong at the Park Millennium
What do you need to do to make these people listen? And they bought just before the fall crash, of all things.
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Response by w67thstreet
over 15 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008
Here is a great example.
Let's say israel and syria went to war. 3 months later, I win nobel prize and I'm sitting cash and I decide to buy a C7 on UWS, they ask $3.5MM, I say I believe I am the only C7 buyer in the entire eastern cost of USA. I bid $1MM and win.... 6 months later, war ends, peace breaks out... and same line C7 trade 4 floors below mine occur at $2MM.
Is the market up 100% in 3 months, or did the $1MM and $2MM trade both occur at market prices?
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Response by w67thstreet
over 15 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008
w81, mkt up 100%
w67, bullsh*t
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Response by Salut
over 15 years ago
Posts: 132
Member since: May 2010
w67th, you're well on your way on becoming a troll. I know you don't give a rat's ass but streeteasy just might.
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Response by seg
over 15 years ago
Posts: 229
Member since: Nov 2009
"It's bad logic, bad finance, bad education and just ripe for lemmings... just sayin....."
That's one way to look at it. But if a potential buyer uses this thread as justification for making a purchase, then what does that say about the buyer. Should you really be blaming the thread?
What is much more likely, is a buyer could compare his potential purchase with some of the units posted here. If they don't like the comparison, they make think twice. From this perspective, the thread may actually have a chilling effect on poor purchases -- the opposite of what you suggest. What about this bothers you so much 67?
Does anyone believe the properties W67 posted are of similar overall quality to the ones W81 posted -- the buildings or the units? I don't. Not sure what has been proven with those.
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Response by printer
over 15 years ago
Posts: 1219
Member since: Jan 2008
salut, that ship sailed a long, long time ago. when he finds it necessary to refer to other posters as Nazi's, whores, etc., on every other post, he is but a troll. thankfully we have the ignore feature.
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Response by Salut
over 15 years ago
Posts: 132
Member since: May 2010
west81st, to clarify: I wasn't able to see any bargains for a proper (setback, terrace) pre-war penthouse anywhere in Manhattan, forget UWS. Am I wrong, did I miss anything or the market on those properties seems to be elusive? Seems that they are far between and somehow don't lose value.
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Response by w67thstreet
over 15 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008
let's see, drop price by 4%, show weakness bf a flood of listings in september, went into contract.... if it was me, I'd be bidding 25% on an all cash offer and see if it sticks. Remember I have cash and the God of CASH FLOW does not look kindly to cash bleeders. Amazes me as a bidder, so much money is left on the table.. brokers want you to bid 5% below to make "it work". FLMAoz, why don't they just say, "please over-pay so that I can close this thing and get my 3%!"
Let's see if it closes and where, and plz read my post above about statistical model/std deviations... all trades are well within my model.
Spinny, I've struggled with this for awhile. It's more to do with my own ego than anything else..... let me ask you does the word Trans have any meaning to you?
: ) NO ONE ratted you out, I'm just that smart. Although, I have a feeling that someone ratted me out to you :)
If it does and if it weirds you out, just know that I am not a freak and to put us on equal footing, just email me at w67thstreet@gmail.com
or else it's totally cool w/ me and you can talk all the smack you want against me... It's cool :)
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Response by fortysevenlon
over 15 years ago
Posts: 2
Member since: Aug 2010
Why do yo uwant war bewtween Israel and Syria?
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Response by w67thstreet
over 15 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008
salut, seg, printer, salut again... WTF, who's a troll, you got economic theories that point to nyc re going up. post it. You got 2009 deals, post it.
FLMAOz... r you guys that delusional, a little ole poster on SE moving the entire UWS C6/7/8 market.. you guys give me too much credit. It's a blog, I've got something to add. let the merits of the words sway opinion. WTF does calling me a troll have anything to do w/ w81 thread. He is more than welcome to pick me apart.
and seriously stay on topic. Bargains of 2009.
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Response by w67thstreet
over 15 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008
conradcounty.. STFU
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Response by spinnaker1
over 15 years ago
Posts: 1670
Member since: Jan 2008
Sorry no clue bub. You wanna party or something?
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Response by w67thstreet
over 15 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008
: ) how about Calgary? How about the letters M L ?
More of a sail... .no worries maybe I'm off my rocker....
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Response by spinnaker1
over 15 years ago
Posts: 1670
Member since: Jan 2008
Ok what's Trans then?
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Response by Salut
over 15 years ago
Posts: 132
Member since: May 2010
w67, the thing is it's a blog but not you blog. You want to rant, get your own blog. Streeteasy is a business.
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Response by w67thstreet
over 15 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008
add "trans" to a country... did I nail it?
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Response by w67thstreet
over 15 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008
no actually it was Riversider's blog, he gave me the keys when he left... m'okay salut... stay on topic, lest I point out the hypocrisy of your own words...
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Response by spinnaker1
over 15 years ago
Posts: 1670
Member since: Jan 2008
transcanada? you think I'm a pipeline guy?
Sorry all, looks I have another stalker after me.
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Response by spqsydney
over 15 years ago
Posts: 80
Member since: Dec 2008
W81st, thanks for the excellent posting. BTW, I find this post a not more relevant and easier to the OP post when I put w67thstreet on ignore.
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Response by wc_nyc
over 15 years ago
Posts: 64
Member since: Sep 2008
Thanks W81st, great post! Keep them coming!!
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Response by bela
over 15 years ago
Posts: 183
Member since: Jul 2008
277 west end 6C 1.846 for a huge classic 7 with poor light and views.needed work
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Response by dwell
over 15 years ago
Posts: 2341
Member since: Jul 2008
I agree with W67 & think prices will fall, however, I enjoy W81st's posts. I want to hear from both of them.
Bram & Ali, I'm so sorry for your losses.
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Response by apt23
over 15 years ago
Posts: 2041
Member since: Jul 2009
Am I the only one who finds merit in both w 81-- who really knows CURRENT value more than anyone-- and also W67 who reigns in all our dreams of saying screw it, I'm going to go out and buy so I can get my special kitchen? I find it an interesting thread.
Spin-- are you putting out pheromones through the ether? Have anything to do with those erotic thrillers you are writing? Jeez. Tone it down babe. I can't take any more of your romances. If a tape comes out featuring you and w67, that could be the death knell for SE.
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Response by NYCDreamer
over 15 years ago
Posts: 236
Member since: Nov 2008
APT 23... You're not the only one. I find no contradiction in valuing input from W81 and W67. They're both Westies and they're both number guys. Why is always the numbers guys?
BTW I know where you got your handle.
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Response by uwsmom
over 15 years ago
Posts: 1945
Member since: Dec 2008
hey, ya gotta have a mix. it's just data. conclusions are endless.
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Response by walterh7
over 15 years ago
Posts: 383
Member since: Dec 2006
apt23, I'm right there with you too. BUT, and this is important, I wish w67 could tone it down just a tad. Sure w81 is now in the broker biz, but he has demonstrated a very even keeled approach thus far on the board and as such, I'm willing to listen until I see a true 'shill' in his words.
I mean, c'mon, he's the father of the 'comps' threads which are inherently negative threads.
So w67, please be polite to those that have added value to this place in the past. You may not agree with what they are saying and may question their motives, I get all that. Please do it in a somewhat less aggressive manner so that a good discussion doesn't go up in flames.
And w81, please continue to put forth thought provoking threads, even if you are 'one of them' :)
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Response by Boss77
over 15 years ago
Posts: 88
Member since: Dec 2007
just a clarification, isn't W81 a "she"?
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Response by apt23
over 15 years ago
Posts: 2041
Member since: Jul 2009
mos def not a "she"
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Response by xellam
over 15 years ago
Posts: 133
Member since: Sep 2008
830 Park Ave, 1C
One can talk about the condition, or low floor, or layout. But this is my ultimate "one that got away."
04/08/2009 Listed by Bellmarc at $4,195,000.
05/11/2009 Price decreased by 7% to $3,895,000.
06/12/2009 Listing entered contract.
07/14/2009 Listing sold.
07/14/2009 Sale recorded for $(insiders only)
07/14/2009 Sale recorded for $3,250,000.
By my estimates it was more like 3500sf, but that's still less than 1k psf for a three floor apartment with possible commercial and residential use on prime Park Avenue.
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Response by xellam
over 15 years ago
Posts: 133
Member since: Sep 2008
Or 812 Park Ave, 5/6C
Beautiful Carpenter 10 (with 3 bedrooms and 3 maids rooms) that went for less than 50% of the original asking price, and 23.1% off last ask. I believe W81st may have brought this up on the comps thread when it sold.
12/03/2007 Listed by Sotheby's International Realty, Inc. at $12,000,000.
01/29/2008 Price decreased by 8% to $11,000,000.
02/26/2008 Price decreased by 5% to $10,500,000.
04/14/2008 Price decreased by 14% to $9,000,000.
11/18/2008 Price decreased by 6% to $8,500,000.
01/11/2009 Price decreased by 12% to $7,500,000.
03/05/2009 Price decreased by 13% to $6,500,000.
03/13/2009 Listing entered contract.
04/16/2009 Listing sold.
04/16/2009 Sale recorded for $5,000,000.
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Response by xellam
over 15 years ago
Posts: 133
Member since: Sep 2008
134 E 67th St, 10/11C
Duplex classic 10, estate condition, around 3900sf.
06/27/2008 Listed by Stribling at $7,995,000.
08/29/2008 Price decreased by 13% to $6,995,000.
11/07/2008 Price decreased by 16% to $5,900,000.
02/02/2009 Price decreased by 17% to $4,900,000.
04/29/2009 Listing is no longer available.
05/19/2009 Listing entered contract.
07/23/2009 Listing sold.
07/23/2009 Sale recorded for $3,500,000.
28.6% off final ask, and less than 1k psf.
Also note that a smaller renovated corner 8 in the same building sold for $5,750,000 on 07/19/2010.
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Continuing...
336 Central Park West #7B (SE listing deleted) - Elegant park-view six sold for $2.2MM.
http://manhattan.blockshopper.com/property/1012070034-7B/336_central_park_west_unit_7b
565 West End Avenue #16C - Deco five with partial river views kept changing hands and kept getting cheaper.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/378037-coop-565-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york
91 Central Park West #14A - Big corner park-view coop needed a lot of work, but may have been the deal of the year in its class.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/349253-91-central-park-west-lincoln-square-new-york
Continuing...
250 West 82nd #33 - I was less enamored of this one than some friends. Still a good buy in the low 2s, if only for all those bedrooms.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/422056-coop-250-west-82nd-street-upper-west-side-new-york
470 West End Avenue #14B: I think the front-facing lines at 470 are great, and the price for this wreck surprised me.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/373235-coop-470-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york
490 West End Avenue #9B: The sevens at 490 have serious flaws, and this one needed a lot of work. At $1.5MM, though, it was easy to like.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/283224-coop-490-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york
Oh forgot the ' : ) ' face lest I be reamed by the regulars!
Nice to see you back w81. Let's not call a bottom yet shall we? What's your best prediction for fall 10'? Flat or up or down? You are a 'professional' now, no?
Continuing...
215 W 98th Street #11B - Big Gramont wreck with limited views but a lot of detail and potential.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/237206-215-w-98-st-upper-west-side-new-york
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/closing/800792
25 Central Park West #18E/G - No park views, but a lot of space at the Century for $3.2MM.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/377887-condo-25-central-park-west-lincoln-square-new-york
Continuing........
Great info, West81st, as always. All above my pay grade, but fascinating info nonetheless. Nothing quite so spectacular to contribute from the low end of the market.
Care to make any prognostications on whether the declines have ended for the time being?
Shouldn't this be on your comps thread. Mkt had a bounce, like all bubble deflating mkts. These are the comps from which I will be bidding lower, not comps from which I will bid higher in a deflating mkt, no?
Tell 'me again. R u a girl or a boy?
This closed at $1.8 million at the very nadir of the crash and might have been the deal of the year downtown.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/358645-coop-51-fifth-avenue-greenwich-village-new-york
11C, which is smaller and doesn't have a view, just closed at $2.35 MM. Based on that comp, 12B could legitimately go for at least $2.7, if not more -- a 50% gain in a year.
We looked at it but didn't have the guts to pull the trigger. Stupid, stupid, stupid...
Hi, w67. Not calling a bottom. I personally think a double-dip is the most likely scenario. No idea of the timing or severity.
The monkey wrench in this market is wealth. Normal real estate markets are driven by incomes and credit; wealth plays a much smaller role. In Manhattan, wealth seems to take the wheel, and other factors are almost along for the ride. Whether that's sustainable is the billion-dollar question. We don't even know how much wealth is out there, although I read somewhere that there are a lot of millionaires in this town.
Resuming...
300 West End Avenue #4A - Tina Fey's smarts apparently go beyond her Sarah Palin act.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/315922-coop-300-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york
755 West End Avenue #5C - A first-generation chopper, and still a milestone.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/364276-coop-755-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york
771 West End Avenue #5B - Another nice 97th Street six that resulted in a "gap-down" trade.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/441026-coop-771-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york
Continuing...
110 Riverside Drive #12E - Paul Krugman put his Nobel winnings into one of my favorite buildings.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/211311-coop-110-riverside-drive-upper-west-side-new-york
473 West End Avenue #11C - Nice in every way, and a big drop from comps.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/359554-coop-473-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york
522 West End Avenue #6A - A wreck with rather high maintenance, but noteworthy for breaking the $1MM barrier.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/368360-coop-522-west-end-ave-upper-west-side-new-york
from one westie to another.
1) cash flow=> wealth
That fact never changes.
2) $1MM 1bdrms on 42nd and 12 ave, makes $5MM 2 bdrm on CPW a bargain.... a $500K 1bdrm on 42nd and 12 ave, makes the $5MM 2bdrm CPW a foolz trade.
The days of WEALTH begetting wealth (a bubble), is over at least in RE. The fact YOU SEE so much "wealth" in NYC to pull ALL CASH trades in NYC 3 yrs into this bubble popping should tell you HOW ENORMOUS the BUBBLE was....
Given above... your "great" trades in a year will be commonplace in a year, foolish in 2 and LMAOzzzz funny in 3. From one westie to another...
w81st...they look great but what about in a lower price point.
Downtownrenter: I feel your pain. Never saw the apartment, but what a comp-buster.
Last few from me:
90 Riverside Drive #15F - View-challenged six makes the list for its classy address.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/346038-coop-90-riverside-dr-upper-west-side-new-york
320 Central Park West #6DE - Since the Ardsley still offers attractive deals, it might be too early to praise this five-room combo.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/398611-coop-320-central-park-west-upper-west-side-new-york
210 West 90th (Astor Court)#PH4 - Subsequent sales of comparable penthouses in the low 90s have lent credence to this buyer's bravado.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/389604-coop-210-west-90th-street-upper-west-side-new-york
AY!! W67!! Not nice!! Bad boy! There! I've just given you a virtual tooshie spank. Oow, sorry about the welt.
W81, so good to see you're posting again. I look forward to reading these links.
I'm not ready to buy yet, but I do appreciate W81's posts.
Julia: 1BRs and studios are not really my sector. Wish I could cover everything, but it's just not feasible.
Sorry, I wrote the previous post, then phone rang & hit "reply" 20 minutes later. Good to see no wars brewing.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/478267-coop-320-central-park-west-upper-west-side-new-york
As you note w81, the Ardsley continues to struggle. a 1700 sq ft in need of renovation. CPW address sitting after a busted contract at $1.575MM making your entire "theory" of "ones that got away" seem a little "brokerish," no?
I mean.. there it sits for anyone to buy a full year after all the beauties got away... how could this be? Can you explain how your 6DE is a deal? Shouldn't that mean, I should be able to use 6DE to bid lower on the 6MN at 251 days on market? I'm so confused, I missed the boat, again?
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/398611-coop-320-central-park-west-upper-west-side-new-york
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/496572-coop-123-west-74th-street-upper-west-side-new-yorkhttp://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/403869-coop-55-central-park-west-lincoln-square-new-yorkhttp://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/487200-coop-15-west-67th-street-lincoln-square-new-yorkhttp://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/496481-coop-40-west-72nd-street-lincoln-square-new-yorkhttp://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/514333-coop-239-central-park-west-upper-west-side-new-yorkhttp://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/407504-coop-23-west-73rd-street-upper-west-side-new-yorkhttp://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/214564-coop-33-riverside-drive-upper-west-side-new-york
all in contract but not closed yet... and these happened after all your deals of the century...
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/492673-coop-370-central-park-west-upper-west-side-new-yorkhttp://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/493505-coop-157-west-78th-street-upper-west-side-new-yorkhttp://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/480343-coop-104-west-76th-street-upper-west-side-new-yorkhttp://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/494129-coop-305-west-86th-street-upper-west-side-new-yorkhttp://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/472593-coop-215-west-91st-street-upper-west-side-new-york
continuing...
W81: What'll I have to pay in 2011-2012 for 6 rooms, UES, west of 3rd? I know it's not your turf, but, what d'ya think?
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/493026-condo-303-west-80th-street-upper-west-side-new-york
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/495075-condo-200-west-78th-street-upper-west-side-new-york
continuing.... bargains galore.... all not closed... makes you wonder, what boat did I MISS?
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/488402-condo-30-west-86th-street-upper-west-side-new-york
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/492862-coop-1133-park-avenue-carnegie-hill-new-york
what's funny is I am hearing alot of these won't close.... and basically the brokers will re-list after Sept 1... you think they'll want more $$ for them? FLMAOz.... sorry liked you better as a pure "comps" guy with no shillery... BUY NOW OR BE PRICED OUT FOREVER!
"ONES THAT GOT AWAY!" I don't think so...
W67: The first three or four entries on my list are apartments that I'm quite certain would sell for about 10% more today. I'm less sure about others, and 320 CPW might be the weakest entry on the list. By the way, the Ardsley has a number of other intriguing price-choppers, including #9G. (http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/491943-coop-320-central-park-west-upper-west-side-new-york).
I agree that the modest gains of the past year could easily be reversed; but for many buyers who were looking in 2009 and continue to look today, these 2009 transactions have the appearance of opportunity knocking. They might lose that patina by 2011 or 2012.
dwell: If you're OK with 94th and Lex, I can imagine 1.25MM, just based on trends that are already in place.. Park and Fifth seem to have stabilized, and the stringent entry requirements of the top coops make distress relatively rare. Of course, another hit to the financial industry could be catastrophic for the UES market.
Thank you, Hon, but too far north. S'ok, I vait.
But, wow, am really enjoying your into:
490 WEA #9B
Listed at $2,450,000
Sale recorded for $1,500,000
wow.
I meant info
Wow westy I think you hit that soft spot on the top of bubba's head.
hi w81
i checked about six links before i stopped, wondering if you are serious or have an agenda, these might be good deals for someone like tina fey (is that really her unit?) who makes the same jokes over and over and collects a billion dollars for it, but for someone who has to do critical thinking for most of the working day, and makes only thousands of dollars for it, it think these units are not such great deals. after all, i dont want to spend my hard earned money for an old ugly boxy apartment with no outdoor space and a high maintenance paying for about ten too many staff members and a crumbling structure, not to mention the douchebag board members who are rotting on the inside for a variety of reasons.
that being said, i think the best deals were in bk in williamsburg and red hook,
i negociated two great deals 20% off asking (around $1mil) and was about to choose when my girlfriend (now ex) lost her job.
anyway, anyone who thinks the asking is reality really needs to try to negociate. i know some of the units are gorgeous, but if you can keep an extra $150k, it is that much more beautiful.
like the thread in concept though.
see you later alligator
Hello west81st,
what, if anything, do you have on pre-war penthouses?
West81st, what does it mean to you that the market has stabilized for the moment? If the apartments listed above would be up 10% from when they were purchased, how does that benefit anyone if the cost to sell is around 10% anyway?
West67th, not all of your links seem to work but you did post an interesting example at 320 Central Park West with a very long time on the market basically proves, in addition to the broker fee, this 10% cost to sell something when you factor in the time and personal uncertainty. Only perhaps the elderly with a second home can afford a place on the market for so long, right?
nice thread W81st
great thread! You are truly the king of the UWS Classic 6.
As far as things sitting at the Ardsley, it has those little kitchens tucked in the back, which doesn't tend to suit my clients' contemporary needs, and I guess others feel the same.
ali r.
DG Neary Realty
squarefoot: Your description of a typical UWS coop is largely accurate. For whatever reason, a lot of us love those crumbling old buildings - noisy pipes, waterbugs (in the basement and on the Board), leaky roofs and all.
jonwarner15: I didn't mean to suggest that any of these 2009 buyers could profitably flip their apartments in 2010. Some might turn a profit if they sold today, but even on a leveraged basis (for those who borrowed at all) the black ink would be scant after expenses. The good news for these buyers is that they probably got their apartments cheaper than if they had waited 6-12 months. Could they have done better in 2011 or 2012? Maybe, but we're talking about family apartments, and most families only have a span of about ten-fifteen years from the point where they can afford a home like this to the time when their kids start moving out. A home delayed can quickly become a home denied. Add the fact that a lot of these buyers probably waited out the boom, unwilling or unable to pay peak prices, and you can understand why waiting indefinitely for a second leg of market decline wasn't an attractive option.
By the way, I forgot #12A at the Alameda, 255 West 84th - a nice buy at $2.3MM despite some infrastructure issues.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/351620-coop-255-west-84th-street-upper-west-side-new-york
Salut: Did you mean closed sales of prewar penthouses, or current listings?
Great thread. Even if these sales don't signal a turning market, they're still interesting to look at.
What did you think of this 6? Looked like a nice buy to me, but I don't know much about the building...
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/465735-coop-789-west-end-avenue-upper-west-side-new-york
actually...now see this was listed at $1.1?? Must have been a total wreck?
Saw #12A with clients. A complete wreck with gorgeous views, and there was a fight to get it.
ali r.
DG Neary Realty
^^I mean 789 WEA, #12A, not 255 West 84th #12A
W 81: I'm still weeping that 285 Riverside never held as a comp for that area. Remember to come get me if that nabe ever moves close to that price again. And I still marvel at Tina Fey's nerve to lowball like that for that space. A lesson for all.
Both the wealth and the wait factors seem to be playing a bigger role in NY real estate than the sluggish economy at the moment. How deep do the pockets go and how long are people willing to wait for the best possible prices? It's like trying to get a handle on shadow inventory, yet infinitely more difficult. Is it possible the residual wealth and the impatience of buyers will sustain the bloated RE market indefinitely? There sure seems to be no shortage of wealthy, intelligent buyers placing bets on all sides of this argument. I wonder though, are more people betting for price stability or against it?
as a douple dipper,wbottomer, i believe the market will offer opportunities like this one again--but i must confess a bit of "coulda, shoulda, woulda" for this one--i think it traded 2.6--appreciate if someone who subscribes can confirm--zonal AC--low mntnce---all sortsa light---spacious nice renovation---solid, if not so aesthetically plsing for park ave, coop
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/405977-coop-1199-park-avenue-carnegie-hill-new-york
Wbottom - don't know if this will add (or detract) from your pain - it closed at $2,760,000
would have trade lo-mid 4's in late 07
prob worth lo-mid 3's in here
west81st: both. Whatever you believe relevant to the subject.
this is the one that got away.
and it sold for 7mm
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/87409-coop-860-park-avenue-upper-east-side-new-york
Great thread, West81st--We came thisclose to putting in a bid on 285 RSD but were expecting twins at the time (a girl and a boy) and were concerned about long-term potential so decided to turn our focus to classic 8s. Sadly the babies were born early and didn't survive so we're back looking at smaller places.
Here's another goody that someone got a nice deal on:
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/467564-coop-300-riverside-drive-manhattan-valley-new-york
The same apt on the 9th floor went for somewhere in the $2.4 range before the crash and it was a total wreck.
Oh, bram, so sorry.
ali
Thanks, Ali. It's been rough but my husband and I are moving forward. How are things with you? (Sorry--not intending to hijack the thread).
Oh, and getting back on topic--here's another nice one that someone got a great deal on:
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/457017-coop-340-riverside-drive-manhattan-valley-new-york
Bram: so sorry about your loss.
I wanted to bid on 340 Riverside. It needed a total gut. I took my architect (who is very reasonable) and she said that it would take at least a million maybe more to fix electric, gut bathrooms and kitchen, fix squeaks in floors, skim coat walls, new air conditioners, etc. . And that is with basic appliances since there were no usable appliances in kitchen. If we wanted higher end appliances add another 100k plus. So that would have brought price to $3M. Since it wasn't really 1900 sq ft that would bring the price to almost $1800 psf. So when you add the headache, not such a great deal. But beautiful view.
have a healthy, happy, full nest in the future
Thanks apt and W.
Yeah, apt, you're correct with regards to the work needed on 340 RSD--it was definitely in bad condition. We looked only glancingly at it and didn't get an estimate on reno costs. $1M would definitely have soured the deal for us :-). But yeah, the view was amazing!
apt23 - not sure why I seem to be following you around today.
With your quote of a $500-600/psf reno I guess I can understand the 100k (plus) appliances, but for the life of me I don't have any idea where you might find those. I'm curious. Also curious what difference 100K makes to an estate bedroom.
I mean, I don't doubt that's what you were quoted but that number seemed to roll far too easily off your tongue. It's like market apartment meets bubblicious architect.
"91 Central Park West #14A - Big corner park-view coop needed a lot of work, but may have been the deal of the year in its class.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/349253-91-central-park-west-lincoln-square-new-york"
Wow - 9 room corner unit estate w/ CP park views is a deal at $5.65MM. Hmm... coulda had a townhouse for less. I know, it's not everyone's thing. these "deals" are making me weep.
Spin. I bought my country house from a major record producer who really tricked up the kitchen and I got very used to it. So I wanted the 60" wolf range which is $11,000 and that doesn't even include the hood. He also had a real restaurant scalamander (sp?) which I loved but was willing to forego. The sub zero pro fridge with 4 drawers I think was about $13,000. I wanted Italian cabinetry and we were going to turn the storage area and maids room into the kitchen so I wanted full sized washer dryer (and a mangle) and will never use any other dishwasher except Miele. It adds up quickly.
The architect is truly reasonable. But this apt was a mess. Broken bathroom pipes in the bedroom walls, etc. I could have saved a lot if I didn't want the floors replaced and a lot of people could have lived with them but I can't stand the squeaking if it was going to be our "final" apt. All the walls needed to be skim coated cause they had years and years of paint layers. Plus she said we had to re do all the electric wiring. I imagine anyone else would have skipped the wiring and lived with the floors and done an adequate reno for 500 - 600k But why have a $2.5M apt with squeaky floors?
I never said anything about the bedroom and 100K so don't know what you mean. And, we have to stop meeting like this. I don't want to incur Truth's wrath.
bram, eh, vale of tears, but we're going to the beach a lot..tx for asking.
ali
w81 "A home delayed can quickly become a home denied."
Let me put it into stevehjx translator "BUY NOW OR BE PRICED OUT FOREVER!"
FLMAOZzzzzzz.... how much did you get for your soul? man......6%
uwsmom, I'm with you... at $5.6MM... it's a townhome w/ car we go....
and yes these "deals" are making me salivate, cause those are the comps with which I WILL BID LOWER... FLMAOZzzzz
hey six seven, easy on eight one
there's another good dip coming, but that doesnt mean there werent some good pukes in 2009
My links are not broken, the work around for not being able to list multiple listings on SE's spam filter is to put it in as ONE LINK,(new link at every "http"). Therez another lesson for you w81.
I thought it more poetic to put a tons of listings in one post to overwhelm, w81's contention that the mkt has "turned." He's already backpedaled and said only 4 of his first listings are true bargains.... my take, 4 outliers in a bouncing market with significant drops that will eat away "10%" bubble bounce equity cushion bf thanksgiving 10'.
wbottom, I hear ya, but I gotz to play my role.. .and w81 gotz to play his role....
This is so so 2005-2007 when I was in the mkt for a flex 3 cause I got priced outta true 3... and then we found out who was wearing trousers when the tide went out...
My spidey financial sense is telling me a "a few brave tina fey, noble Krugman" who bought at the height of fear when Goldman/Citibank was this close to being bk, and is after a year out "maybe" 10% up on an illiquid 10% roundtrip "asset" IS way way way too soon to be calling these brave souls financial geniuses! F'k to me they are complete morons who put in "I don't give a sh*t money" into the greatest deflating nyc re bubble in my lifetime. So call me skeptical, but I wish I could've yelled at all the borkers in 2007, how many of them admit that they had ZERO clue about the bubble ... and now w81 is saying "weren't these great bargains?!!!!?!"
Bargains, the sale signs are still up. sorry, he got his broker hat on, I got my w67 hat on.
So sorry to hear that, Ali. If you ever feel like commiserating feel free to drop me a note at bramstar at gmail.com
w67th: You're such a bore sometimes. We know what "your role" is. Most posters who have been here any length of time could recite what you have to say before you say it. Do you have to hijack an interesting thread that obviously took w81 time and thought to compile?
I think this is a great thread. I looked at some of the places that w81 mentions in early 2009. Some of those December/January 2009 open houses were ghost towns at any price.
Miette, amen. Not to mention that some of the apts w67th listed have actually closed despite his comments. This is an otherwise great thread. Anyone able to pick out a few non-UWS properties?
it is a fun thread and i feel very lucky that W81 is most interested in UWS 2+ br apartments. did i say luck? yeah, well, there you have it.
Miette/bjw... knock yourselves out. Put in 2009 closings that you think were bargains of the year....
Here is the logic of the thread. w81 contention is there were some real "bargains" in 2009, aren't they sitting pretty buying when no-one else was.
Here is some economic theories that are relevant:
1) given an illiquid market, bid and asks get very wide (i.e. they got nothing more than market at 2009);
2) given an inflating market, trades that occur later in a time line should occur at higher real/nominal terms, after transaction costs (w/ 10% transaction costs, even w81 greatest bargain is flat, yoy);
3) statistical models account for outliers in any market. Given the gyrations of the market from 2001 to 2010 where average PSF went from $600psf to $2000, back down to $1300 (spking of C6 uws), the standard deviation is about $200psf, so w81 examples are WELL WITHIN what you would expect in a financial model that included a "bubble."
4) What will impact C6 UWS homes going forward that will reflate it? NONE that my years in banking, finance, commercial RE, education, nyc re transaction experience can see.
w81, hey lookie, I'm a RE borker and I use these bargains to show that the mkt is up 10% from 2009!
w67, hey lookie I'm a financial businessman who doesn't hold open houses for a living and those 6 units are well within the norms of a bubble bursting and are completely expected and should not be used to negotiate against yourself or to pump the NYC RE up.
It's bad logic, bad finance, bad education and just ripe for lemmings... just sayin.....
but pls continue to post "bargains" of 2009.
Hi bubba, I thought this was a particularly poignant deal today. $1500+psf and going strong at the Park Millennium
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/502801-condo-111-west-67th-street-lincoln-square-new-york?email=true
What do you need to do to make these people listen? And they bought just before the fall crash, of all things.
Here is a great example.
Let's say israel and syria went to war. 3 months later, I win nobel prize and I'm sitting cash and I decide to buy a C7 on UWS, they ask $3.5MM, I say I believe I am the only C7 buyer in the entire eastern cost of USA. I bid $1MM and win.... 6 months later, war ends, peace breaks out... and same line C7 trade 4 floors below mine occur at $2MM.
Is the market up 100% in 3 months, or did the $1MM and $2MM trade both occur at market prices?
w81, mkt up 100%
w67, bullsh*t
w67th, you're well on your way on becoming a troll. I know you don't give a rat's ass but streeteasy just might.
"It's bad logic, bad finance, bad education and just ripe for lemmings... just sayin....."
That's one way to look at it. But if a potential buyer uses this thread as justification for making a purchase, then what does that say about the buyer. Should you really be blaming the thread?
What is much more likely, is a buyer could compare his potential purchase with some of the units posted here. If they don't like the comparison, they make think twice. From this perspective, the thread may actually have a chilling effect on poor purchases -- the opposite of what you suggest. What about this bothers you so much 67?
Does anyone believe the properties W67 posted are of similar overall quality to the ones W81 posted -- the buildings or the units? I don't. Not sure what has been proven with those.
salut, that ship sailed a long, long time ago. when he finds it necessary to refer to other posters as Nazi's, whores, etc., on every other post, he is but a troll. thankfully we have the ignore feature.
west81st, to clarify: I wasn't able to see any bargains for a proper (setback, terrace) pre-war penthouse anywhere in Manhattan, forget UWS. Am I wrong, did I miss anything or the market on those properties seems to be elusive? Seems that they are far between and somehow don't lose value.
let's see, drop price by 4%, show weakness bf a flood of listings in september, went into contract.... if it was me, I'd be bidding 25% on an all cash offer and see if it sticks. Remember I have cash and the God of CASH FLOW does not look kindly to cash bleeders. Amazes me as a bidder, so much money is left on the table.. brokers want you to bid 5% below to make "it work". FLMAoz, why don't they just say, "please over-pay so that I can close this thing and get my 3%!"
Let's see if it closes and where, and plz read my post above about statistical model/std deviations... all trades are well within my model.
Spinny, I've struggled with this for awhile. It's more to do with my own ego than anything else..... let me ask you does the word Trans have any meaning to you?
: ) NO ONE ratted you out, I'm just that smart. Although, I have a feeling that someone ratted me out to you :)
If it does and if it weirds you out, just know that I am not a freak and to put us on equal footing, just email me at w67thstreet@gmail.com
or else it's totally cool w/ me and you can talk all the smack you want against me... It's cool :)
Why do yo uwant war bewtween Israel and Syria?
salut, seg, printer, salut again... WTF, who's a troll, you got economic theories that point to nyc re going up. post it. You got 2009 deals, post it.
FLMAOz... r you guys that delusional, a little ole poster on SE moving the entire UWS C6/7/8 market.. you guys give me too much credit. It's a blog, I've got something to add. let the merits of the words sway opinion. WTF does calling me a troll have anything to do w/ w81 thread. He is more than welcome to pick me apart.
and seriously stay on topic. Bargains of 2009.
conradcounty.. STFU
Sorry no clue bub. You wanna party or something?
: ) how about Calgary? How about the letters M L ?
More of a sail... .no worries maybe I'm off my rocker....
Ok what's Trans then?
w67, the thing is it's a blog but not you blog. You want to rant, get your own blog. Streeteasy is a business.
add "trans" to a country... did I nail it?
no actually it was Riversider's blog, he gave me the keys when he left... m'okay salut... stay on topic, lest I point out the hypocrisy of your own words...
transcanada? you think I'm a pipeline guy?
Sorry all, looks I have another stalker after me.
W81st, thanks for the excellent posting. BTW, I find this post a not more relevant and easier to the OP post when I put w67thstreet on ignore.
Thanks W81st, great post! Keep them coming!!
277 west end 6C 1.846 for a huge classic 7 with poor light and views.needed work
I agree with W67 & think prices will fall, however, I enjoy W81st's posts. I want to hear from both of them.
Bram & Ali, I'm so sorry for your losses.
Am I the only one who finds merit in both w 81-- who really knows CURRENT value more than anyone-- and also W67 who reigns in all our dreams of saying screw it, I'm going to go out and buy so I can get my special kitchen? I find it an interesting thread.
Spin-- are you putting out pheromones through the ether? Have anything to do with those erotic thrillers you are writing? Jeez. Tone it down babe. I can't take any more of your romances. If a tape comes out featuring you and w67, that could be the death knell for SE.
APT 23... You're not the only one. I find no contradiction in valuing input from W81 and W67. They're both Westies and they're both number guys. Why is always the numbers guys?
BTW I know where you got your handle.
hey, ya gotta have a mix. it's just data. conclusions are endless.
apt23, I'm right there with you too. BUT, and this is important, I wish w67 could tone it down just a tad. Sure w81 is now in the broker biz, but he has demonstrated a very even keeled approach thus far on the board and as such, I'm willing to listen until I see a true 'shill' in his words.
I mean, c'mon, he's the father of the 'comps' threads which are inherently negative threads.
So w67, please be polite to those that have added value to this place in the past. You may not agree with what they are saying and may question their motives, I get all that. Please do it in a somewhat less aggressive manner so that a good discussion doesn't go up in flames.
And w81, please continue to put forth thought provoking threads, even if you are 'one of them' :)
just a clarification, isn't W81 a "she"?
mos def not a "she"
830 Park Ave, 1C
One can talk about the condition, or low floor, or layout. But this is my ultimate "one that got away."
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/400222-coop-830-park-avenue-upper-east-side-new-york
04/08/2009 Listed by Bellmarc at $4,195,000.
05/11/2009 Price decreased by 7% to $3,895,000.
06/12/2009 Listing entered contract.
07/14/2009 Listing sold.
07/14/2009 Sale recorded for $(insiders only)
07/14/2009 Sale recorded for $3,250,000.
By my estimates it was more like 3500sf, but that's still less than 1k psf for a three floor apartment with possible commercial and residential use on prime Park Avenue.
Or 812 Park Ave, 5/6C
Beautiful Carpenter 10 (with 3 bedrooms and 3 maids rooms) that went for less than 50% of the original asking price, and 23.1% off last ask. I believe W81st may have brought this up on the comps thread when it sold.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/building/812-park-avenue-manhattan
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/158190-coop-812-park-avenue-upper-east-side-new-york
12/03/2007 Listed by Sotheby's International Realty, Inc. at $12,000,000.
01/29/2008 Price decreased by 8% to $11,000,000.
02/26/2008 Price decreased by 5% to $10,500,000.
04/14/2008 Price decreased by 14% to $9,000,000.
11/18/2008 Price decreased by 6% to $8,500,000.
01/11/2009 Price decreased by 12% to $7,500,000.
03/05/2009 Price decreased by 13% to $6,500,000.
03/13/2009 Listing entered contract.
04/16/2009 Listing sold.
04/16/2009 Sale recorded for $5,000,000.
134 E 67th St, 10/11C
Duplex classic 10, estate condition, around 3900sf.
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/building/130-134-east-67th-street-apartments
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/316196-coop-130-east-67th-street-lenox-hill-new-york
06/27/2008 Listed by Stribling at $7,995,000.
08/29/2008 Price decreased by 13% to $6,995,000.
11/07/2008 Price decreased by 16% to $5,900,000.
02/02/2009 Price decreased by 17% to $4,900,000.
04/29/2009 Listing is no longer available.
05/19/2009 Listing entered contract.
07/23/2009 Listing sold.
07/23/2009 Sale recorded for $3,500,000.
28.6% off final ask, and less than 1k psf.
Also note that a smaller renovated corner 8 in the same building sold for $5,750,000 on 07/19/2010.