This article portends more for RE future than #'s

If you absolutely had to be short something, I would look at the banks. But the reason I won't short them is because the accounting is so bad it's not possible to get your arms around what's going on. Back in the mania i tended to avoid them because they were just financial black holes… [Now] I wouldn't own a financial stock with a gun at my head.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/bill-fleckenstein-i-wouldnt-own-a-financial-stock-with-a-gun-at-my-head-2010-9?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+clusterstock+%28ClusterStock%29#ixzz102FFRoE4

Pfft...

"Instead of making $1.75 billion in the third quarter, () Mr. Horowitz now expects Goldman%u2019s profit to total $1.34 billion"

Hello? They are STILL projected to make one point three four BILLION dollars.

"Ms. Whitney predicts that annual revenue from Wall Street%u2019s main businesses will drop 25 percent, to around $42 billion in 2010, from $56 billion last year."

That's "billion" with a "B" - a sum so vast it's obscene.

"She predicts the American banking industry will lay off 40,000 to 80,00 employees, or as many as 1 in 10 of its workers."

So what. As of July 2010, there are 730 thousand people in NY/NJ/PA that work in finance. Since this is the hub of America's finance, how many of those PREDICTED 80K people do you think are going to be let go here, where the decision are made and office politics rule? Cuts (if any) will be made elsewhere in the country. Plus if anyone goes it will be because of advances in technology, requiring less back office workers, something you guys already discussed here ad nauseum.

No worries. Manhattan has plenty of other industries: fashion, entertainment, food, publishing to keep everyone employed. In addition, Chinese, Koreans, Russians and other folks will continue to buy in this, the most exciting city in the world.

In other news:

"Economic Bellwether FedEx Misses Earnings, Guides Lower, Laying Off 1700 Workers" and "U.S. Poverty Rate Rises to 14.3%," "Wholesale Prices Rise on Energy," "We're $12.3 Trillion Poorer Than We Were Three Years Ago," "Here Comes A Double Dip Recession...," "Summer Of No Volume Will Crush Wall Street Profits" -- wait, what?

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/NEWY636FIREN

:)

There's so much window dressing and poor accounting in Financial companies. Who knows what they make...

...but we do know how much they pay out in salary and bonuses.

Economy is worse than the 90s, unemployment is worse than the 90s, and now ny incomes will be worse than the 90s guess where NY Real estate is heading to.

Pulaski - That "there is still so much money" is such a such a ridiculous argument the I probably shouldn't even attempt to respond because I think it won't do any god. But there are others reading and perhaps they will benefit.

First of all, you read the article with rose tinted glasses. While GS is said to be down some 30%, MS is estimated to be down 70-80%. GS is not the equivalent of WS and in terms of % employees a tiny % of the WS workforce.

If a bank makes even 20% less in profit, then that implies that the profit-based bonuses (ie, most of the salary in investment banking) will be that much lower. This is much of the fuel that once raised NY to new heights in RE prices, and now is part of what is providing the support to those prices.

re: russians/chinese/etc. The only reason they are buying here is for what seems to be safety. Even that has come down dramatically. You don't hear about the waves of buyers that you used to, though they still do exist. The big question, as always, is what happens if new cracks do appear, like from lower WS salaries/emplyment?

If you think NY is so different, and you are such a fan, read up on the history of this great city. It is RIFE with booms and busts in real estate going back 200 years.

Also, remember that in every bubble, EVERY bubble, someone has said "it is different this time". It is human nature. And the challenge is to find out why it must really be different this time, because each and every time the people who said it were wrong.

i think pulaski was being sarcastic.

Not sure Meredith is right or wrong, She came out with this prediction a while ago. On the positive side since her prediction corporate bond spreads have come down as well as the leveraged loan market. There could be some M&A activity which could help Wall Street.

The big negatives are failed mortgage loans which Fannie and Freddie would like to put back to Wall Street firms due to reps & warranties not being what they should , possible effects from Financial Reform(swaps) and main street America still boycotting the stock market.

The end results will probably vary by firm and product mix.