Credit Crisis 2007-2009 halted new inventory....

I'm thinking didn't they ban you from streeteasy?

Thoughts? Why start now? Let's keep the BS flowing.

What BS maly? Is the post credit crisis effect on Manhattan inventory not a discussion point? I don't get it? Don't you want to hear what others think so you have more ammunition for your decision?

Maybe 1992-94 had no new supply because builders weren't anticipating any demand. And now you think that there is no new supply coming again. Why? Think about that for a minute Steve.

"That means no new buildings coming to market. That is unprecedented."

Not only unprecedented, completely untrue!

ah, good thing crybaby is back, we needed more nonsense, didn't we?

malthus do you think we are back to "normal" demand. That the market has stabilized? If we have normal demand but no new supply then what happens?

But one could argue there is still supply overhang. There certainly is in Williamsburg, where, by the way, several decent sized buildings began after the crisis for rental or sale.

"malthus do you think we are back to "normal" demand. That the market has stabilized? If we have normal demand but no new supply then what happens?"

We have clearly demonstrated *less* demand, hence pricing.... so, once again, you're starting with a lousy premise.

"Is the post credit crisis effect on Manhattan inventory not a discussion point?"

Once can discuss it, but you start with facts and logic.

When you have either, please let us know.

swe, dude u are way to emotional for investing of any kind. I can just see you in your rented apt at your computer looking at your red E-trade account panting and foaming as you trade in and out of stocks. Occasionally glancing @ SE to see if I've posted anything.

buyerbuyer, excellent point bro. Is there still supply overhang? Tough to get a handle on. Maybe Noah can break through with his model.

> swe, dude u are way to emotional for investing of any kind.

Coming from the guy who said to buy RE 2 years ago, and then started yelling to buy stocks after missing the 60% runup.... suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuure.....

and then screamed and cried when people disagreed with him!

suuuuuuuuuuuuure, crybaby...

As I have pointed out before, your initial premise that there is no new supply is incorrect. In my small part of the world, I see 470 units coming on the market in 2011 at Liberty Luxe and Liberty Green and some left over inventory competing with investors at Riverhouse. Across the island, Gehry's 900 unit rental building is coming in early 2011 as well. 34 Leonard was foreclosed and the new owners are already releasing the shadow inventory there (16 units). Then there is a bunch of buildings in various stages of completion in the NW part of Tribeca.

As to demand, given the last few years, I'm not sure that anyone can say what normal is, but price movements can be punctuated by periods of equilibrium and I believe we just saw one. While the optimism was there, I believe it was a good time to sell.

This wouldn't be the first time steveF started with a completely off-base premise.