Super slow sales?

Yes, I've noticed the same thing, both new listings and contract signed are way down.

but prices stay up............

certainly I expected stronger tick up in deals being signed..I use my own systems now, not the widget, but the trend is similar. Absolute values are different.

I did see a tick up in past 2-3 weeks, but not like I expected. What I think is going on is that inventory is still tight and that much of the rise in inventory in past 4-6 weeks is more a function of listings coming BACK on market, after being pulled for whatever reason. So its more a function of active-off mkt-to active again, and not so much brand new stuff coming on. So buyers are really seeing stuff they likely already saw sometime in not so distant past.

That could lead to a patient attitude..I see no urgency out there, either on sell side or on buy side..that is a recipe for slow sales.

What does the traders instinct in you say? My guess is that barring some sort of surprise that will push upside sales the next move is down. Buyers who don't have to buy don't want to right now (not this inventory at these prices), and when they do they can turn to either on market product or shadow inventory. But among the sellers there are always some prone to be in a more urgent situation.

Ok, I take that back. The banks have taken the urgency off the table. They just aren't pushing anyone to have to move on their debts, especially the big commercial debts for the new developments. I can't see how extend and pretend into a slow environment ends well. Seems the longer we wait for future good times, the more we push them off.

Ah well.

the trader in me thinks sales will be generally slow until early 2011. Those that have pricey, non-unique products yet have to sell, better get a move on and reduce those asking prices. Good products, priced right still are getting strong bids..we are still seeing 600-650 or so deals signed a month..so its slow, but not horrible

Slow? You guys don't know what you're talking about:

"Residential real estate sales rebound citywide"

"Five-borough survey of all housing types finds residential sales market jumped 18% during the third quarter, with Manhattan transactions leading the pack."

"Citywide, the total dollar value for residential property sales increased 26% to $8.36 billion during the third quarter, compared with the same period last year, according to the report. That figure was also up 11% from the prior quarter. "

"On its own, Manhattan displayed a 25% spike in transactions for the quarter"

"The average sales price in the city reached $722,000 in the quarter, up 7% from the same period of 2009. In Manhattan, the average sale price increased 8% to $1.3 million. Average prices rose 3% in both Brooklyn and Queens to $478,000 and $396,000, respectively. "

http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20101012/REAL_ESTATE/101019969

Now, get out there and buy before you're priced out forever.

Yes, no urgency at all. I guess knowing nyc re will continue to fall and the monthly nut has no bearing on the market. As a buyer in a rental or wanting to move up in size, monthly nut is fixed and or capital at risk de minimus. Me thinkz 'buyers' have the upper hand. That and the fact there are 11k overpriced loony sellers keeping a lid on any price appreciating for nyc re for the next 3 yrs of sales. And did you notice all the 'disappearing' listing jump right the f'k back in as soon as there is even a hint of a pickup? Flmaoz.

How does one reconcile the Crains report and the Urbandigs reports?

Thanks for the thoughts...it seems like 600-650 is super slow, but maybe not horrible (like early 09 new contracts listings)

I agree one reason could be lack of "good inventory" but there is still a high number of inventory which matters a lot. Also, these are listings that mostly need to sell (i.e. returned back to the market) and have been on the market for a while. This makes me think that prices coming down would be the trigger for more sales. I think the above shows many of these sellers "need" to sell

It will be interesting to see if sales stay at 600 pace or even get worse what will happen....

UD- any thoughts on how Oct, Nov, Dec is for seasonality in terms of sales....thanks

also, UD I'll save you the speach to Topper...... the difference is because the crains report was covering deals signed mostly in april, may and june.... what we are talking about is deals signed september and october

there is a huge difference in the "lag" of the quarterly reports and what is happening right now because they cover closed sales

after data mining for 10 months, discovering the issues with the data and coming up with a solution for it, I honestly dont trust any inventory side report that is out there..Now, if those reports are ACRIS (sales) based, YoY and Qtr-Qtr will likely show uptrends due to reflation and the very active Feb-April in 2010 - remember these reports are 3-6 months lagging...So, whats going on today may not be reflected until Q4 or perhaps even Q1 2011 report. I would expect to see qtr-qtr declines for Q1 2011 report if Q4 doesnt catch it

But knowing the issues with the data, I only trust what my new systems tell me for pending, off mkt and active inventory trends. Selfish I guess, but I saw the depth of the data issues with my own eyes..almost done guys, sorry for these delays, all front end stuff, browser compatibility and paypal payments + registration settings..cant wait to release this thing

Thanks, JSD and UD!

Looking forward to the launch.