Is a 1.25mm Apartment down 4.6% since the summer?

I really don't know. From all the stuff I read on various streeteasy threads, it seems like most commenters feel Manhattan home prices will never go up in our lifetimes. Ever. They can only go down. They will never go up. Some people say that all 'standard quality' Manhattan real estate won't be at 'the right price to buy' until the average price per square foot is somewhere around $500 again. Evidently, most of the commenters seem to be of the mind that renting is almost always better than buying right now. So there's nothing right now, evidently, that could make home prices in Manhattan go up. But what do I know? I'm a newbie.

I bought this summer, exactly for this reason: to lock in long term low interest rate for the next 30years. (a 3 bed loft in chelsea).
The reason I did that is because I believe inflation will rage for a few years.today is like 1970 except way worse. The coming rise in interest rates will have nothing to do with a good economy, just the opposite: however this bring a nominal increase in the price of real estate.
Not to please us but to bail out the banks.
Please note that it will get harder to qualify for a mortgage when severe inflation will hit:the lucky ones will be those already locked in.
I did that. I could be wrong of course, but as W Buffet said ths year: you can bet on inflation.

Rates UP, Prices DOWN. Its that simple. Market is heavily weighted to buyers employing substantial leverage.

Additional short term headwinds...

Underwriting requirements
Underwater homeowners
Unemployment

Long term headwinds...

Demographics (Baby Boomers/Retirement)

According to the Streeteasy condo index, we went from 1,880 in August to 1,840 in October, so only 2.1% down. While the mortgage rates have gone up, what, about half a point? Using your example, your monthly cost would have gone by $80. I don't think you're going to find a perfect correlation between values and mortgage rates, but if you are planning to borrow to the max, an argument can be made you shouldn't wait for mortgage rates to go all the way back up. If you have significant cash to put down, on the other hand, waiting for the market to bottom makes sense, because you would be a lot less sensitive to mortgage rate increases.

I spent $1mm on the visa card at 19.9% bc of the miles.

Wow! Im a Fking financial retard. You too can know just enough about Econ to be a financial fktard. Ask me how.

Thank you Bernie for the financial noose. Apparently there r enuff financial fktards to actually bounce the nyc re mkt for 6 months. Let's see you do that again.

And why is it bald fat old guys need to grow facial hair? Do they grow their pubs too? It makes their old penises look smaller IMHO.

What about all those cool prizes!
I just traded 900,000 miles for a pez dispenser.
Nothing like candy out of a neck.

W67...like I always picture you...back in the black.
Fight the power my brother

"rates up price down. its that simple"
Not true. 70's are a perfect example.rates went up throughout the decade and real estate prices too.sales volumes were low.On a post inflation post taxes the mortgage debtors came way ahead (opposite of bonds).
the market has already bottomed (within 10% which is not relevant over long term)

Woa. I missed e coments from w67. funny.
I should have said: I bought to have a place to stay.but decided of the timing on a combination of REmarket trend and most importantly interest rates. When rates are negative you are paid to borrow.
Yesterday I had the place evaluated for rental:it would cost more to rent than to buy. that is from day one, with 20% down.I own many rentals in the city: not that easy to do.
I have a feeling w67 is poor.because of no financial intelligence.a dollar is not a dollar.inflation is real and kills debt owners.

Pez. Nice nice.

70's. Uh? U mean the oil crap that caused a temp disruption of inflation VS 2007 bubble with ground zero of RE asset bubble, resulting in temp misallocation of assets, consumption and risk/return? Yeah I seez the similarities. Yep, the girlz behind the glory hole are so so hot. They r so hot, they need to be behind a cardboard box.

Nicer catch, how do you know the market has no more than 10% to go?

The grumpy old troll. Who lives under the bridge..... Dora.

W/ financial retarded locking in of 30yr mortgages it's no wonder nyc re had a mini bounce. Just like the bald one intended. ur cash flow may be locked, but thats akin to holding a 30 yr bond for the 2% yield, and closing your
Eyes to your neighbor's 10% yield. Just close your eyes, that guy with the gun will go away. Catch my wealth if you can, financial fktards.

I don't know. I play the odds. and the RE index futures of the CME.
I also believe that tripling the monetary base in 2 years (like the US did) will result in monetary inflation which will mask/stop the asset deflation(REprice drop).That is he intent of the Federal reserve and with a symbolic currency they will succeed (QE1 now2 then3 etc..).

is W67 working for a salary?probably. doesn't invest.justJO for limited pleasure

Salary? What dat? Haven't needed a w-2 in a decade. Flmaoz. Deflation on nyc re.

Conquering the world as we speak. Sponsoring a transpac yacht this jan. C u at the capt/sponor meeting fktard.

Yep. Keep Chking in on your deflating leverage asset fktard. Hahahahahahaaa

Good you're back w67. I needed a giggle.

yep. poor

and a bro.

from up there

it's ok .we need them

nicercatch: "...tripling the monetary base in 2 years (like the US did) will result in monetary inflation which will mask/stop the asset deflation(REprice drop)."

That's a very misleading statement. Yes there was a sharp increase in M1, but how much actually made it into the general economy. Besides, what it can triple in 2 years, it can cut in half just as quickly with signs of inflation getting out of hand. The overall increase in the broader measure of money supply (M2) did go up over 10%, but were you counting on the 'tripling of M1' or '10% increase in M2' to cause the inflation that you're betting on?

Long term, I think inflation will be a problem, but I do not believe it's enough to make up for the remainder of the bubble that is yet to burst. Best case scenario, RE prices stay relatively flat or increase less than inflation rate.

Poor? Nope
Bro? Not that it matters, but nope.
Needing bros? WTF does that mean oh financial genius?

Oh the haterade of financial lemmings. Watch and learn fktard what a deflating bubble means. Oh cu at the starting line, July. And c u at the WYC at my finish. I expect 8 days max. Have some champagne for me you cracker.

They will QE to infinity. Simply because the derivatives overhang is so big that QE is the only option to save the (connected) financial system. Nearly everybody (harley davidson, Ge, hedge funds, offshore carribean,Gm)got bailed out but not me nor you. Withdrawing the pnch bowl is impossible. The bond market cratering (last week) while the fed is monetizing treasuries is a clear sign (to me), that bond holders are wising to the Ponzy.
It means devaluation/debasement of the currency.Going against means negative rate debt/precious metals.
As for RE it means continued asset deflation for years, masked by monetary inflation.
Again that is my take on things.I usually act based upon that. It's a bit counterintuitive.
I think the nominal bottom is in. the real bottom is years away.

I do drink champagne everyday

In summary a just enuff econ to fk his financials, champagne drinking racist. Awlrighty!!!!!! Next.

crackhead

w67th, agreed.

the bro fked his brains out so much he has delusions of grandeur (that's french for u mofo).

empires never fall easily.

Empires indeed. Long live the comp queen.

Hey fucktard. Do keep Chking in on the comps, that's w67 for look in the mirror you champagne drinking pompous
Cracker.

Oh Lordy, where did you get your nuanced Econ major from? It's so so so simple..... Yet you put words and concepts in there with no applicability to nyc re. Hey double miles at discover for only 27%, thats an arbitrage for retards like you. Goes from 19% to 27% buy you get double Fking miles!!!! Do you just hate blks? How about them Jews or chinks? What color spectrum does your racism end? Deep heavy questions fktard.

crackhead

cogent analysis, all around.

just keep in the back of your strained thought process japan. and keep it there some more. pump money into banking system, again, again, again. inflation? none. things are always situational, although economists have a hard time realizing it.

shake the ketchup bottle.nothing, shake more, nothing,more shaking:nothing.more still: ketchup all over the walls (N Taleb).
Japan was rich when it hit. US was insolvent before it hit.And leadership has gone the banana republic way long ago. QE yes and more.
It's OK to have different views. Different perspectives and timelines. I put money on the line and a long track record of .01% US net worth.from nothing.
Crackheads are another (fecal)matter.

ketchup made you double down on nyc re? really? Oh, lordy, u fking retard. Do you think that maybe maybe.... we went to an enormous re based credit bubble, where the fed had no clue how much fractional $$$$ were floating around based on screwy credit analysis and when it imploded the fed pumped just enough so that our ATMs would work?

FLMAOzzzzzz.. shake that bottle a few more times, u racist fktard. .01% what's that like 3,200,000 of youz, well I don't know, but that ain't that impressive.... you mean you drink prosecco, no?

With Jumbo 30 year at 5.25%, my original 1.25mm apartment is now down 5.4%. If I put down 312,500 and need to maintain my 4,800 mortgage payment, my loan balance needs to be 870K. 312.5k + 870k = 1,182mm.

maybe someone else would have better information on this. but from what i see, from 1970 to 1980 went from 7 to 14, and real estate prices doubled during that period. from 1980 to 1990 mortgage rates went from 13 to 10, and real estate prices almost tripled. from 1990 to 2000 interest rates went from 10 to 8, and real estate prices went up about 15%.

meant to say from 1970 to 1980 mortgage rates went from 7 to 14.

real estate prices are for NY

whoa..nicercatch seemed like a moron, but got the benefit of the doubt for a moment--

now i too must agree he is a ftard racist

but full of shlt re real estate too

hilarious his claims that NYRE went up in the 70's--a time when coops were being given away to those who were capable of paying maintenance--70's are the example of how bad it can get!! and he bought some shlthole in here so we have to hear endlessly about what a ftardedly great purchase he's made

and watchyou nicercatch--some crackhead bro from up there (who you need to wash your car) gon whack over you head wit dat champy bottle

What did prices do in real dollar terms? (I am really curious).

I found this: http://www.coinnews.net/tools/cpi-inflation-calculator/

So 1980 dollars were worth 46.7% of 1970 dollars, so the real estate, if it doubled, actually lost value though perhaps not as much as the rise in rates would have predicted.

Likewise 1990 dollars were worth 63% of 1980 dollars, so the increase in real dollars was only about 50%, and that is after HUGE improvements in the city (that was probably the decade in which the greatest improvements occurred) and a huge real estate bubble in the city and with rates dropping.

2000 dollars were worth 75% of 1990 dollars yet real estate only went up 15% while interest rates continued to drop.

http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/census/historic/values.html

Wbottom - in fairness, by looking at periods like 1970,80,90 and 2000 you miss curves in the middles. The nadir of the city was about '76-'77 and the improvements didn't really become noticeable until a bit after 1980, so it is possible to catch the same(ish) pricing in 70 as 80. Likewise with 1990 - 2000 you have already started the RE bust in NYC prior to '90 and you are well back on the rise in 2000.

In 1968 a relative bought on RSD and paid $18,000 which she claimed was a lot of money back then ("equivalent to a years salary of someone who made a very good living"). Still cheap by today's standards but then we had a credit/RE bubble.

Ekartash - Fair enough, but still doesn't show your point.

That is statewide. useless for Manhattan. In fact so much is different from the terms of those #'s that it isn't usable.

In that time value to being in the suburbs increased (and continued to for a long time). An example, as Westchester fills the value on the remaining land gets a higher premium since there is a limit to the # of towns with a RR station. The region was still growing and growing regions get higher prices. Quite simply what you are looking at could simply be a chart of demographics. As Baby Boomers want more housing and become richer the values in the regions go up.

There are too many moving parts to market dynamics to say any one chart proves/disproves the correlation between price and interest rate.

i agree with you. i think what i was getting at is that it is not necessarily the case that when interest rates go up, real estate prices must come down. there are so many other factors.

In the short term I think there is a high correlation, especially with fast changes in interest rates. Going from 4.6% to 6.0% martgage rates quickly would dramatically affect housing affordability because that amount of time will not allow incomes to catch up. Without other dramatic changes affecting demand (growth in jobs) or affordability (an increase in bonuses) there is not support for the market.

It may not be reflected quickly in sales, but more likely to lead to a dramatically slowing market as people with homes now depreciated in value can't or won't sell at the current market price.