Home price slump deepens

how about those consumer confidence numbers ?

where?? Montana. No I know, Bismarck, ND.

Read the article SteveF -

"San Diego was the only market that didn't slip, posting a slight gain of 0.1%."

So, if your studio condos are in San Diego - Congratulations!!!!!

The credit, which paid homebuyers up to 10% of the purchase price up to $8,000, expired in September 2010. Analysts say it pushed a lot of homebuying forward, as many people rushed to buy to get in under the wire.

steveF, I think you owe Steve H. an apology.

The reality on the ground is that, especially in Manhattan - prices have not softened any further, the inventory is limited and weak, and it seems very few units are coming to the market. I see prices dropping, but for poor quality stuff. So what is the bottom line?

people are waiting. sellers are holding off coming to market because they believe that they can get better price in some undetermined future. buyers are not biting except for the occasional well priced reasonable unit. lets see who blinks first.

Whose wife said this?

"We expect softness to persist," she said, "as home prices continue to face headwinds from the large pipeline"

Here is the bottom line sjtmd...

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/16/realestate/16cov.html

Don't tell me in 2011 that you weren't warned.

prices are going up on studios...mid 500k range is not unusual any longer.

meant 2012 but late 2011 also.

how many times have you posted this article?

why cc? It's nice not to think about it huh? Sort of out of sight out of mind. Well, read it man. It's the future bro. Simple stuff to understand. I'm relentless.

steveTheMoron, most of the stuff that's being built ends up rentals.... brokers keep on saying things just so that they can afford their dunkin donuts in the morning as starbucks has been off the shelf for 2 yrs now. inventory is there, shadow inventory has been rented and will come to the market in 2011 and 2012. nytimes has to write these articles as it is a CLASSIFIED section more then a NEWS section. time to go back to 7th grade and learn the difference.

Some data on the level of the index for NY. Now at a drop YoY.

2006 1 213.5
2006 2 214.47
2006 3 214.33
2006 4 214.97
2006 5 215.57
2006 6 215.83
2006 7 215.25
2006 8 214.34
2006 9 214.09
2006 10 214.29
2006 11 214.24
2006 12 213.79
2007 1 212.78
2007 2 212.52
2007 3 212.4
2007 4 211.62
2007 5 210.51
2007 6 209.49
2007 7 208.37
2007 8 207.18
2007 9 206.39
2007 10 205.54
2007 11 204.38
2007 12 202.09
2008 1 200.44
2008 2 198.31
2008 3 196.52
2008 4 194.72
2008 5 194.23
2008 6 194.74
2008 7 193.7
2008 8 193.48
2008 9 191.66
2008 10 189.66
2008 11 186.52
2008 12 183.45
2009 1 180.93
2009 2 177.84
2009 3 173.6
2009 4 170.69
2009 5 171.17
2009 6 172.34
2009 7 173.91
2009 8 175.13
2009 9 174.81
2009 10 174.42
2009 11 172.65
2009 12 171.85
2010 1 171.39
2010 2 170.56
2010 3 169.28
2010 4 168.9
2010 5 170.48
2010 6 172.85
2010 7 174.98
2010 8 175.11
2010 9 174.3
2010 10 171.5

inonada, that's just so depressing. Can't you post happy news?

maybe steve will let nada borrow the pom poms. damn, i forgot where we parked the unicorn again.

The reality is that inventory is tight and product is piss poor in Manhattan. This is also true in high demand areas in Westchester and NJ (I have friends looking in both).

Does anyone want to opine on what that really means? Could it mean that the credit crisis and 10% unemployment impacted the middle class the most and it will take longer for that segment of the population to recover? Is it really just as simple as that?

streeteasy, home of the broad stroke. Gotta love it.

Broad bubble broad strokes. Fktard. Said with sincere affection juiceman. Hey how's the baby?

And I gotz plenty more unicorns. The Chinese are selling it based on their cheap yuan (I'm old school), little do they know I'll re-sell it to them when their currency flip flops.

w67th, where are you putting your cash? Currency trades? Not too much in the way of equities, I assume?

Manhattan: ACTIVE vs PENDING

http://www.urbandigs.com/chart.php?s1=Active&s2=Pending Sales&mindt=10%2F27%2F2010&maxdt=01%2F25%2F2011&t=Market Trends&interval_mindt=2010%2F04%2F30

Juicy, if your friends are looking in Westchester or NJ, they will have their choice or they are using brokers without brains. I'm watching one of the "premier" locations in NJ and could not afford and northside home 2 yrs ago. now i can pick from numerous ones. there's one that started 1 yr ago for $829K and now down to $625K and is completely renovated. patience will be rewarded.

ab_ where in NJ? I am waiting and watching as well. Was fixed on Maplewood, but now find the proximity to some rough areas not so appealing.

I'm looking in Westfield. It has some of the best schools in NJ, been doing research since 03. The best thing about it is that there's a bus to the city every 8-10 minutes and a train every 12 with a switch in Newark. Total time just under an hour.

I know of many places, Summit, etc, that have express trains to the city that get there in 40 min or so. The issue that I find is that they run every 40 min to an hour. That is something that I can't deal with after living in Brooklyn for 30 yrs.

ab, I don't disagree that prices have come down, but I think quality inventory is much harder to find.

Oh, I forgot to mention, there's Trader Joe's in town and I'm an addict ;). It also has one of the best downtowns, a real one, in NJ.

I'm still waiting for those FDB condos to hit 500 psf. I think I'm running out of time, though...

Westfield has the only (last I heard) wine-approved TJs. In handsome downtown area adjacent to RR Sta.

... only in NJ, that is.

Crap, I missed the new November datapoint from the NY Case-Shiller index. Now within 0.5% of the previous low.

...
November 2009 172.65
December 2009 171.85
January 2010 171.39
February 2010 170.56
March 2010 169.28
April 2010 168.90
May 2010 170.48
June 2010 172.85
July 2010 174.98
August 2010 175.11
September 2010 174.30
October 2010 171.45
November 2010 169.75

'I don't disagree that prices have come down, but I think quality inventory is much harder to find.'

Jucie,
I used to think this too. Then I discovered that I could increase the $$$ of the higher end of my search and tons of quality inventory appeared, just not within my comfort zone. A lot of that quality inventory that occupies the fiscal tier above said comfort zone has been sitting on the shelf long enough to have collected dust. I don't have an MBA from an ivy so my level of sophistication is limited. I still think that water seeks it's own level and the only issue today is price. My patience may be rewarded or I may miss the bus. I am really ready to buy, mentally and financially. I have not pressure except desire. The rent/own ratio is very telling and a good indication of downward pressure on pricing.

Bjw. I'm of the mind people that sit on their azzes don't deserve 100% return on their capital a year. So you ask where I have my money, I create the companies that make 100% for it's owners, and then we make the idiots rejoice when we give them 7.5% returns.

falco, first, no one takes the tax benefits and pricipal paydown into the rent ratio ananlysis. Not taking this into account is absurd and will seriously skew that ratio. But people will believe what they want to believe so arguing with them is useless. Second what happens if rents break to the upside? All indications are that rents have been steadily rising. Maybe in a year from now rents will significantly change that current flawed rent/own analysis. The time to buy is when you CAN.
Anyhow, Good Luck. You seem like a good guy not like some of the others here.

w67th, you create hedge funds?

"The time to buy is when you CAN."

Is anyone else as impressed as I am by how many ways people come up with to say, "Buy now or be priced out forever" without actually using those words?

sideline, I am. I just don't know why people pay much attention to steveF to begin with. Isn't it obvious how he'll spin things by now? Not that he's alone in this department, but still...

The important variables that I believe are central - inflation risks, costs of real estate (buying and renting), alternative venues of investing. Let's say that you are renting and saving your cash. You are risk averse, so not much in the market. If inflation does rear its' ugly head, your savings value will dwindle. Your rent will go up. Housing prices will _____? Therefore, in this environment, is a well researched real estate purchase a reasonable move?

what don't you small-brained people get? Buy when you can means when you have the financial capability to do so. Predicitng the market is no easy task but over the longterm odds are you will do very well. DUH! fre'ken place pisses me off that I'm forced to converse with such disasters. But I do know that the silent majority gets it.

When I purchased my first apartment, putting down 20%, I was paying LESS then market rate for that apartment. Take the tax advantage into consideration and I was "rolling in dough" every month. That was 2002-3. You can't do that now, even at break even point with the tax advantage taken into consideration.

I'm sitting and waiting and so are many others. If you can afford $10K per month, but can rent something similar for $8K per month, why spend the extra $$$$? And don't use "I can paint my colors, etc" as an excuse. You can always paint an apartment for $5K and paint it back to white for $3K and still have plenty of money left over after the 2 yr lease.

SteveF channeling Nixon. Perfect.

steveF,
I took this off the trulia site that rated NYC through the roof!
This is the rent/ratio of which I write.
Methodology
Trulia calculates the price-to-rent ratio for the 50 largest U.S. cities using the median list price compared with the median rent on two-bedroom apartments, condominiums and townhomes listed on Trulia.com. Sample Price-to-Rent Ratio Calculation:

•Median List Price: $140,201.37
•Median Rent: $1,871.65
•Price-to-rent ratio: $140,201.37 ÷ ($1,871.65 x 12) = 6
Interpretation Key:

•Price-to-Rent Ratio of 1-15: Owning a home is much less expensive than renting in this city.
•Price-to-Rent Ratio of 16-20: The total costs of homeownership in this city are greater than the costs of renting, but it might still make financial sense to buy depending on the situation.
•Price-to-Rent Ratio of 21+: Renting in this city is much less expensive than owning a home.
Definitions:

•Total costs of homeownership include mortgage principal and interest, property taxes, hazard insurance, closing costs at time of purchase and ongoing HOA dues and private mortgage insurance, where applicable. It also includes an offset for the tax advantages of homeownership, including mortgage interest, property tax and closing cost deductions.
•Total costs of renting include rent and renter's insurance.

ab_ can you crunch the #s for us to show us how it doesn't work? I'm serious not sarcastic.

steveF,
You sound like the broker who says,"don't try to time the market". I heard that many times in 2007 as I dug my heels in and started to divest. My advisor was hawking Wells Fargo (back in 2007) as if he was a stage coach driver. I remember it was at 28 and he was screaming buy buy buy. I did buy, the following year at 9. Life is all about timing. ESPECIALLY LARGE CONSUMPTION (non ivestment) PURCHASES like a primary residence. Sorry to raise my voice.

falco, what about just doing a single apartment sale vs rent ratio? instead of this grandiose trulia calculation. Not being sarcastic. Do it for studio/1bed Midtown/ Upper east etc. See what the results are and post. Base it on current list prices.

falco, you don't have a crystal ball bud. Even Buffet cannot time the market. The only thing you can use is this: The younger you are the better. That gives you LONG term protection and advantage. I'm betting that we go up short term but these are investments not my home.

The younger you are the better. That gives you LONG term protection and advantage.=true

I'll also do the one to one and get back to you.

steveF, age has little to do with it, other than if you dig yourself into a big hole at a young age, it gives you longer to get yourself out. That's really it. While it can be nice to have money when you're young, that's not a great excuse for using it poorly. I agree with you that if you choose to buy, you should buy well within your means, but I think it ends there.

"falco, you don't have a crystal ball bud."

SteveF, how do you reconcile that with "Don't tell me in 2011 that you weren't warned."

In addition to being a fool, are you also a hypocrite?

I said I'm betting that it goes up I don't have a crystal ball either dude. Worry about yourself.

I disagree bjw, as long as you can make your payments then why should a homeowner care where the price goes short term?

You know, now that I think about it I think it's going to go up also.
The difference is that the relative value will go go down. That 1.5M apartment might still sell for 1.5M 8years from now but gas is $7.5/gallon. Milk is $14.25/gallon, generic rub&tug is $360 and you still get shit for the $90 tip (had only she put her heart into it).

> Don't tell me in 2011 that you weren't warned.

Every time Steve warns of higher prices, they go lower.

> prices are going up on studios...mid 500k range is not unusual any longer.

Julia - Studio median went down again in Q4. Its actually the lowest its been since before the crisis. These are actual sales prices, not asking prices.

Year Quarter Studio
2007 1 390,000
2007 2 429,936
2007 3 390,000
2007 4 459,000
2008 1 499,000
2008 2 480,000
2008 3 425,000
2008 4 420,000
2009 1 437,500
2009 2 405,000
2009 3 399,000
2009 4 375,000
2010 1 375,000
2010 2 410,000
2010 3 375,000
2010 4 375,000

"DUH! fre'ken place pisses me off that I'm forced to converse with such disasters."

OMG, SO precious... coming from SteveF.

"Predicitng the market is no easy task"

Are you finally admitting you have been lousy at doing it?

Real estate for sale
in Manhattan
We found 8,149 listings

So much for the JuiceTheory of low inventory - just a year's supply.

And he's FINALLY admitted that prices have come down. If I were I drinker, I would.

julia, swe is correct, and it's actually even worse, because more of the mix that sold appears to me now to be larger studios. i don't know where you're seeing all these closed studios in the mid-500s, i'm seeing a lot of very nice one bedrooms in good locations (and many with decent mtc. as well) in the low-500s.

you're not that much different than steveF, on the studio front. you've been claiming that prices are rising for that product for at least two years. i don't think i can recall a single time you've said prices are declining for sales. you really need to look at closed sales, there's still a lot of discount to list, particularly now for the smaller units.

Falco, lmao.

I do find lots of quality inventory above my price range ;)

Steve, when we hitting 50% off?

When are we at $500psf?

When will nyc re borkers 1040 be above their 2007 1040?

$500 psf Bf you hit your high-water mark for shilling fktard.

Just spoke to a realtwhore having mid life crisis. Says re selling ain't where her heart iz. I bit my tongue so hard, I'm still bleeding.

"you're not that much different than steveF, on the studio front. you've been claiming that prices are rising for that product for at least two years. i don't think i can recall a single time you've said prices are declining for sales. you really need to look at closed sales, there's still a lot of discount to list, particularly now for the smaller units."

Well, it has been suggested from time to time over the years that Julia was in fact a broker just playing dumb....

actually, i take some of my comment back. she did once note that prices for alcove studios had fallen in lincoln towers.

no, swe, i just think that she decides to rent, and then looks at a few things on the market but only in her preferred buildings, and extrapolates from that. it's not a very accurate snapshot of the small unit market as a whole.

aboutready small unit market is doing very well. You will be paying about 50k more for that condo studio you were looking at last year.

It might just be that if you can only afford $200k, studios going from $400k to $300k doesn't register as a decline.

you bears are being taken out to deep water and are drowning.....

how are the coops doing, steve? and the small condos are only doing ok in a few select areas.

I highly doubt julia's a broker - swe's been fairly nasty to her on occasion, but it's unwarranted. ar, I think you're exactly right; it's easy to forget how SE junkies have a fairly distorted view of what the average New Yorker's market perception is like.

steveF, why do you care so much? Let people make their own decisions - no need to bag on em if you disagree. Buy up all the property while it's still cheap then!

> you bears are being taken out to deep water and are drowning.....

Drowning in money?

bjw, I only comment AFTER the bears start their shenanigans. Someone has to counter. I would say nothing if the bears would stfu. They rally around and take comfort in each other and attack these boards. Can't have that.

steve, sorry but I totally disagree. If people truly believe housing prices will come down (and let's be honest, there's plenty of reason to believe that they might continue to do so), they absolutely have the right to discuss it on here, whether you like it or not. I'll be the first to agree that a select handful try to squash anything that might legitimately counter their view, but you know that old saying about two wrongs...

> bjw, I only comment AFTER the bears start their shenanigans.

Uh, nope. You've been giving the same shpiel for 2 years!

> Someone has to counter.

And most of this board is happy to counter your nonsense. You are saying its ok to counter, and yet you have a problem when your arguments are countered.

Don't be a hypocrite, Steve.

Also, if you want to try and SUCCESSFULL counter an argument, your first step would be not to make up your own stats. You have no credibility here because you regularly pull out stats that folks on both sides of the argument quickly recognize as nonsense.

The miller samuel data is there to be analyzed. Try it.

> I would say nothing if the bears would stfu.

Again, not true... you've had yoru shpiel going since the time that bulls dominated the board.

> They rally around and take comfort in each other and attack these boards. Can't have that.

Yes, can't have anything accurate said. You need to make sure that doesn't happen!

lol

> bjw, I only comment AFTER the bears start their shenanigans

Every single thread you've started pretty much proves that wrong...

"You have no credibility here"

swe, pot, kettle. You're really not much better.

(In your most exaggerated south of the boarder accent)

credibility.... credibility

We don't need no stinking credibility.

alright bjw, you're ok buddy, pleasure to know ya! looking forward to many civilized debates in the future. Now it's off to get a snow update. I hear it's 8-12.

Steve -- I sincerely hope the 8-12 refers to inches of snow.

LOL... ME, you are full of 'em these days.

> alright bjw, you're ok buddy, pleasure to know ya!

Wow, the SteveF seal of approval. If that isn't the kiss of death, I don't know what is...

>Steve -- I sincerely hope the 8-12 refers to inches of snow.

More confirmation that MidtownerEast/Wbottom is not a man.

"Wow, the SteveF seal of approval. If that isn't the kiss of death, I don't know what is..."

Well, you know, there's a subtle difference between insulting/constantly berating and politely disagreeing with people, but wouldn't expect you to recognize that.

hb, how so? i find that scat humor, stupid sex jokes, are usually the domain of men (although not entirely exclusively). maybe you have some masculinity/femininity issues yourself, since you constantly need to bring this up?

hb is in pre-excision mode. Disregard please. Thank you.

> i find that scat humor, stupid sex jokes, are usually the domain of men
I agree, and Wbottom's prudishness is a serious contrast

> (although not entirely exclusively).
hmm

>maybe you have some masculinity/femininity issues yourself, since you constantly need to bring this up?
Look, your assertion or question, based on me bringing it up this question about Wbottom, is not a crazy assertion or question. But let me assure you, I'm pretty secure in what I got.

yes, ah, you speak wise words. i was just intrigued by responses to midtownereast's admittedly low comment about inches.

Whoops, sorry, rewrite my response with MidtownerEast instead of Wbottom. My error.

The bj..steveF alliance is one of excellent teamwork...hahahaha

Wbottom, you should just get over it and admit that my quip was much funnier than your attempt at humor. It happens.