Big Deal What Market Slump? Article Tools Sponsored By By JOSH BARBANEL Published: November 11, 2007 ALTHOUGH there are many questions about the direction of the Manhattan real estate market, the evidence to date shows that the market remained strong last month, continuing right through the last closings. The number of sales in October was well above the number recorded during the corresponding... [more]
Big Deal
What Market Slump?
Article Tools Sponsored By
By JOSH BARBANEL
Published: November 11, 2007
ALTHOUGH there are many questions about the direction of the Manhattan real estate market, the evidence to date shows that the market remained strong last month, continuing right through the last closings.
The number of sales in October was well above the number recorded during the corresponding month a year earlier although a bit behind the huge volume of sales recorded over the summer, according to a tabulation of co-op and condominium transactions that were filed with the city through the first seven days of November. The number of sales of trophy properties costing more than $4 million increased sevenfold from October 2006.
Prices also remained high, close to the record prices recorded over the summer, and well above the level in October 2006, when the market was in deep doldrums, and there were worries that the market had begun to turn.
Median prices were 16 percent higher last month than a year earlier, and average prices were 45 percent higher than during that slow October a year earlier.
Inventories of unsold co-ops and condos were up from the summer but remained low in October, 22 percent below the inventory reported a year earlier, according to figures provided by Jonathan Miller, an appraiser and an executive vice president and the director of research at Radar Logic.
So far, city records show that 53 properties closed for more than $4 million in October, including a five-story 7,000-square-foot landmark town house bought by Martin Scorsese on East 64th Street on Oct. 10 for $12.5 million. Last October, there were seven closings.
Then there was the full-floor three-bedroom apartment, with two terraces, bought for $8.2 million on Oct. 19 by Douglas R. Lebda, the founder of LendingTree, the mortgage broker and referral company, in the Legacy, a six-apartment condominium carved out of a former garage at 157 East 84th Street.
Mr. Lebda is now the president of IAC/InterActiveCorp, the Internet conglomerate put together by Barry Diller, which acquired Lending Tree in 2003. Property records do not list any mortgages on his new apartment.
Consider, too, the $33.4 million sale at 834 Fifth Avenue on Oct. 30 by Loida N. Lewis, the widow of Reginald F. Lewis, the founder of the Beatrice Foods chain. It was sold to Dr. Mark Rachesky, the founder of a fund that invests in distressed properties, and the former chief investment adviser to the financier Carl C. Icahn.
To pessimists, the high prices this summer and fall may be remembered as the peak of the New York real estate market, as the impact of the national housing malaise, job cuts and falling bonuses on Wall Street work their way through the Manhattan market.
Marcia Van Wagner, an economist and deputy city comptroller, said that while economists can forecast trends, they have trouble predicting just when a “turning point” will appear. Nevertheless, she said that her agency was updating its economic forecasts as concerns mount, and that she was expecting a slowdown in the real estate market, perhaps later this year or next year.
But there is another view: As long as Manhattan remains one of the world’s great cultural and financial playgrounds, the real estate market can continue to rise. While much of the country has been worrying about foreclosures on subprime mortgages, researchers the Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy at New York University found last month that only a tiny fraction of Manhattan apartments, eight-tenths of 1 percent, were bought with subprime loans last year.
Last month, two researchers at the consulting firm Business360, John Marchant and Roger Sharp, analyzed long-term trends in Manhattan real estate prices and despite the national credit crisis that emerged over the summer, they predicted that Manhattan prices would continue to rise 5 percent a year for the next three years.
The pair cited figures showing an expanding base of wealth in New York City: the wealthiest 20 percent of Manhattan residents — the ones who can afford to buy high-end apartments at current prices — have a median income of $350,000, or 50 times the income of the bottom 20 percent. And they concluded that home prices are still catching up from the steep declines in the 1990s.
Last Wednesday, the developers of the new 58-story W New York-Downtown Hotel and Residences on Washington Street found that Manhattan market was alive and well. Michael Shvo, whose firm Shvo Marketing is selling the properties, invited 3,000 people who had expressed interest to show up on the opening day of the sales office for the sale of 159 one- and two-bedroom condos. (Another 64 furnished hotel-style condos will go on sale later).
At 7 a.m., when the office opened, there was a line on the street, Mr. Shvo said. By the time the office closed at 11 p.m., two hours later than planned, he said, contracts for 72 apartments had been signed. Prices began at $2,000 a square foot, he said, or more than $1 million for a one-bedroom.
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Response by spunky
over 18 years ago
Posts: 1627
Member since: Jan 2007
But this can't be true. MMAfia, anon3 and zizzi and the other experts who are in the know please tell us this can't be true. I am trying to time this market so when it goes down I will buy, buy buy buy. Please please tell us it ain't so. Please tell us Manhattan market will crash --Please Please please. Tell us about the credit crisis, and wall street bonus cuts, and the lay offs, and the upcoming depression and whatever else so we can have that warm fuzzy feeling that this market is going down.
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Response by zizizi
over 18 years ago
Posts: 371
Member since: Apr 2007
Good thing that you know how to read, stukny:
"Marcia Van Wagner, an economist and deputy city comptroller, said that while economists can forecast trends, they have trouble predicting just when a “turning point” will appear. Nevertheless, she said that her agency was updating its economic forecasts as concerns mount, and that she was expecting a slowdown in the real estate market, perhaps later this year or next year."
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Response by anoone3
over 18 years ago
Posts: 28
Member since: Nov 2007
↑↑little↑↑red↑↑arrows↑↑point up↑↑
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Response by spunky
over 18 years ago
Posts: 1627
Member since: Jan 2007
But zizi why oh why did you not include the nest sentence to follow.
But there is another view: As long as Manhattan remains one of the world’s great cultural and financial playgrounds, the real estate market can continue to rise. While much of the country has been worrying about foreclosures on subprime mortgages, researchers the Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy at New York University found last month that only a tiny fraction of Manhattan apartments, eight-tenths of 1 percent, were bought with subprime loans last year.
Last month, two researchers at the consulting firm Business360, John Marchant and Roger Sharp, analyzed long-term trends in Manhattan real estate prices and despite the national credit crisis that emerged over the summer, they predicted that Manhattan prices would continue to rise 5 percent a year for the next three years.
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Response by spunky
over 18 years ago
Posts: 1627
Member since: Jan 2007
I'm sorry I meant to say oh zizizi why oh why oh why oh why who did not also include the next sentence that follows
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Response by spunky
over 18 years ago
Posts: 1627
Member since: Jan 2007
and that is------
But there is another view: As long as Manhattan remains one of the world’s great cultural and financial playgrounds, the real estate market can continue to rise. While much of the country has been worrying about foreclosures on subprime mortgages, researchers the Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy at New York University found last month that only a tiny fraction of Manhattan apartments, eight-tenths of 1 percent, were bought with subprime loans last year.
Last month, two researchers at the consulting firm Business360, John Marchant and Roger Sharp, analyzed long-term trends in Manhattan real estate prices and despite the national credit crisis that emerged over the summer, they predicted that Manhattan prices would continue to rise 5 percent a year for the next three years.
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Response by JuiceMan
over 18 years ago
Posts: 3578
Member since: Aug 2007
spunky, are the Business360 consultants talking about the same credit crisis that MMAfia has been talking about? The one that was going to tank Q3? I need a little help on this one, MMAfia the credit crisis expert, has insinuated that I'm not qualified to comment on the subject. By the way, pass me a brewskie will ya?
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Response by anoone3
over 18 years ago
Posts: 28
Member since: Nov 2007
...↑↑Little↑↑Red↑↑Arrows↑↑Point↑↑Up↑↑...
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Response by spunky
over 18 years ago
Posts: 1627
Member since: Jan 2007
Juiceman yes MMAFia's credit crisis is a different one. You have to understand that MMAfia rents in or near downtown Elizabeth NJ so his way of thinking and understanding todays credit issues is at a much more sophisticated level anyone else. The credit crisis has already sent the Manhattan RE market in a tail spin. In fact we have have crashed. One problem and that is no one knows about the Manhattan RE crash except for MMafia.
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Response by MMAfia
over 18 years ago
Posts: 1071
Member since: Feb 2007
Simple, continue to look backwards and do what the Fed has been doing. Or wake up like the Fed finally has (but it's too late now), smell the salt and start looking FORWARD. Keep your head turned like the Fed WAS doing and you'll run into the same wall that they did because they didn't even see it coming. Tick, tock, tick...
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Response by anonymous
over 18 years ago
I am I am trying to get a feel for whether to buy now or wait a little while. I have a few questions about this article, and any insight is much appreciated, thanks... :
It says:
"Median prices were 16 percent higher last month than a year earlier, and average prices were 45 percent higher than during that slow October a year earlier."
So a 16% increase in the median over an admittedly slow month last year. I think this means that more higher priced apartments went into contract in August/ September and closed in October than last Sep/Aug? Right? Not that prices are higher for the same size/ type of apartment. Was it so slow last Sep/Aug that the average price has increased 45%. Correct me if I'm wrong, but prices haven't appreciated by 45% in a year have they? Does those two figures together mean that, of the homes sold over the median, many were MUCH higher than last year, while the ones below the median were about the same or less. Does that by inference mean it was a slow October again for homes below the median? What was the median? Where can we go to see the city filings he tabulated? Does anybody know?
And we're a "bit behind the huge volume of sales recorded over the summer". How much is a bit? They don't want to say?
"The number of sales of trophy properties costing more than $4 million increased sevenfold from October 2006."
So, if 53 were sold this October (per the article), only 7 were sold last October. What was going on last Summer that only 7 + $4 mill apts sold, or is that normal, and we were just in a mega +$4 million buying frenzy at the end of the summer? Does that activity affect the market we would be looking in? (under $1.5 million).
Again, these are not pointed question, I am trying to get a feel for whether to buy now or wait a little while. Any insight is much appreciated, thanks...
But this can't be true. MMAfia, anon3 and zizzi and the other experts who are in the know please tell us this can't be true. I am trying to time this market so when it goes down I will buy, buy buy buy. Please please tell us it ain't so. Please tell us Manhattan market will crash --Please Please please. Tell us about the credit crisis, and wall street bonus cuts, and the lay offs, and the upcoming depression and whatever else so we can have that warm fuzzy feeling that this market is going down.
Good thing that you know how to read, stukny:
"Marcia Van Wagner, an economist and deputy city comptroller, said that while economists can forecast trends, they have trouble predicting just when a “turning point” will appear. Nevertheless, she said that her agency was updating its economic forecasts as concerns mount, and that she was expecting a slowdown in the real estate market, perhaps later this year or next year."
↑↑little↑↑red↑↑arrows↑↑point up↑↑
But zizi why oh why did you not include the nest sentence to follow.
But there is another view: As long as Manhattan remains one of the world’s great cultural and financial playgrounds, the real estate market can continue to rise. While much of the country has been worrying about foreclosures on subprime mortgages, researchers the Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy at New York University found last month that only a tiny fraction of Manhattan apartments, eight-tenths of 1 percent, were bought with subprime loans last year.
Last month, two researchers at the consulting firm Business360, John Marchant and Roger Sharp, analyzed long-term trends in Manhattan real estate prices and despite the national credit crisis that emerged over the summer, they predicted that Manhattan prices would continue to rise 5 percent a year for the next three years.
I'm sorry I meant to say oh zizizi why oh why oh why oh why who did not also include the next sentence that follows
and that is------
But there is another view: As long as Manhattan remains one of the world’s great cultural and financial playgrounds, the real estate market can continue to rise. While much of the country has been worrying about foreclosures on subprime mortgages, researchers the Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy at New York University found last month that only a tiny fraction of Manhattan apartments, eight-tenths of 1 percent, were bought with subprime loans last year.
Last month, two researchers at the consulting firm Business360, John Marchant and Roger Sharp, analyzed long-term trends in Manhattan real estate prices and despite the national credit crisis that emerged over the summer, they predicted that Manhattan prices would continue to rise 5 percent a year for the next three years.
spunky, are the Business360 consultants talking about the same credit crisis that MMAfia has been talking about? The one that was going to tank Q3? I need a little help on this one, MMAfia the credit crisis expert, has insinuated that I'm not qualified to comment on the subject. By the way, pass me a brewskie will ya?
...↑↑Little↑↑Red↑↑Arrows↑↑Point↑↑Up↑↑...
Juiceman yes MMAFia's credit crisis is a different one. You have to understand that MMAfia rents in or near downtown Elizabeth NJ so his way of thinking and understanding todays credit issues is at a much more sophisticated level anyone else. The credit crisis has already sent the Manhattan RE market in a tail spin. In fact we have have crashed. One problem and that is no one knows about the Manhattan RE crash except for MMafia.
Simple, continue to look backwards and do what the Fed has been doing. Or wake up like the Fed finally has (but it's too late now), smell the salt and start looking FORWARD. Keep your head turned like the Fed WAS doing and you'll run into the same wall that they did because they didn't even see it coming. Tick, tock, tick...
I am I am trying to get a feel for whether to buy now or wait a little while. I have a few questions about this article, and any insight is much appreciated, thanks... :
It says:
"Median prices were 16 percent higher last month than a year earlier, and average prices were 45 percent higher than during that slow October a year earlier."
So a 16% increase in the median over an admittedly slow month last year. I think this means that more higher priced apartments went into contract in August/ September and closed in October than last Sep/Aug? Right? Not that prices are higher for the same size/ type of apartment. Was it so slow last Sep/Aug that the average price has increased 45%. Correct me if I'm wrong, but prices haven't appreciated by 45% in a year have they? Does those two figures together mean that, of the homes sold over the median, many were MUCH higher than last year, while the ones below the median were about the same or less. Does that by inference mean it was a slow October again for homes below the median? What was the median? Where can we go to see the city filings he tabulated? Does anybody know?
And we're a "bit behind the huge volume of sales recorded over the summer". How much is a bit? They don't want to say?
"The number of sales of trophy properties costing more than $4 million increased sevenfold from October 2006."
So, if 53 were sold this October (per the article), only 7 were sold last October. What was going on last Summer that only 7 + $4 mill apts sold, or is that normal, and we were just in a mega +$4 million buying frenzy at the end of the summer? Does that activity affect the market we would be looking in? (under $1.5 million).
Again, these are not pointed question, I am trying to get a feel for whether to buy now or wait a little while. Any insight is much appreciated, thanks...