CoreLogic: NAR’s 2010 existing home sales are overstated by 15% to 20% http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/02/corelogic-nars-2010-existing-home-sales.html Historically, the CoreLogic existing sales data have covered about 85% to 90% of all NAR’s existing home sales data. However, in 2006 NAR’s sales data became elevated relative to the CoreLogic, MBA, HMDA and Census sales related data, and... [more]
CoreLogic: NAR’s 2010 existing home sales are overstated by 15% to 20%
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/02/corelogic-nars-2010-existing-home-sales.html
Historically, the CoreLogic existing sales data have covered about 85% to 90% of all NAR’s existing home sales data. However, in 2006 NAR’s sales data became elevated relative to the CoreLogic, MBA, HMDA and Census sales related data, and that trend has continued and become more pronounced through 2010. There are several reasons for the divergence, including benchmarking drift, more sales going through MLS systems due to consolidation and a lower share of for sale by owners (FSBO) home sales. Net, NAR’s existing home sales data are overstated by about 15% to 20.
CoreLogic also discusses the impact of lower sales on months-of-supply and potentially prices, however it also appears the NAR data overstates the level of inventory too - so it is hard to tell if months-of-supply will be revised up (or even down). As I've mentioned before, I expect that later this year, the NAR will revise down both sales and inventory numbers for the last few years.
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