W 67's prediction come to pass thru the backdoor??

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970203423404576186671576180048.html?mod=BOL_hpp_mag

Thanks for the article, very interesting

How much gold should one buy? Put 50% of cash into gold? I just fear a gold bubble.

Re: the $500 psf, I wonder if seller's will pump up the price to compensate for the devaluation.

Dalio is DA MAN!

So we devalue, in favor of which creditor nations?

Japan? Can't happen - Japan can't afford to have its currency appreciate given its employment and industrial situation. Let alone the current tragedy which could take a half a decade to repair.
China? Also can't happen - China's whole economy and employment situation is subsidized by it's currency policy. A sharp currency reversal that hurts employment, after a couple decades of an expanding middle class, would be the end of the government regime.
Germany? It doesn't act on its own anymore.

It's nice to have your myopic one-sided theories, and then the rest of the world steps in with reality. But what is laughable is the obsessive need to talk your own real estate book, from calling buying real estate a moral issue akin to pushing cigarettes, to the need to hang out with the "cool" class clown kid on west 67th street like you are some little giggly high school girl.

Better prediction as it pertains to Japan, there may be some selling of RE holdings in the U.S. - commercial and individual residential/condos - to repatriate capital.

Also, as it pertains to Brazil, I'd expect some of the [newly] wealthy in Brazil and other LatAm countries to be buying properties in the U.S.

- why would a dollar deval cause prices to fall to 500$ psf?

- what currency is the dollar going to collapse against?

If the premise is that the US will cease to be a hard currency, as a huge deval takes place, I would note that in third world countries real estate is quite often priced in a hard currency, and reprices immediately in hard currency prices when a local currency deval ocurrs, so that in local currency terms, prices rise sharply.

Devaluation doesn’t change the relative value of products bought and sold within the country, it affects what the value is for trades between the devalued currency and that of other countries. In this situation that would made US real estate appear lower priced for those outside US. In New York that means more demand from outside US. I’m not an economist but I do buy/sell stuff outside US, am I wrong on this?

"For all of you who have questioned W 67's target price of $500 psf -- did you ever consider that his prediction could be reached with a great deal of help thru dollar devaluation?"

Speaking for myself, no, I didn't consider this becase I don't live in economics Bizarro World.

Devaluation's natural companion is inflation, not deflation - the whole debasement of the currency thing. With a weak currency, real assets are a safe haven investment and rise in value relative to the currency (a.k.a. appreciate in "price"). You would expect the price of commodities and real estate, for example, to rise in $ terms if the $ is worth less. This doesn't require the extreme where the US$ is no longer considered a hard currency, although buyerbuyer's hypothetical is helpful in demonstrating the relationship.

If the price target were expressed in Yen psf or RMB psf, then at least we could debate the likelihood that the US$ falls against those currencies and that this depreciation is a mechanism by which US real estate prices fall in foreign currency terms. Decline in $ psf based on currency devaluation I just don't get

ieb - "Devaluation doesn’t change the relative value of products bought and sold within the country, it affects what the value is for trades between the devalued currency and that of other countries. In this situation that would made US real estate appear lower priced for those outside US. In New York that means more demand from outside US. I’m not an economist but I do buy/sell stuff outside US, am I wrong on this?"

This was the argument in the mid-2000's when the dollar was dropping. The problem is future outlook. If someone has Euros/Yen/renminbi/etc. and $1000/sq ft. in their constant value can now be bought for $800 in their constant value does it make sense for them to buy? Sure, if there isn't the continued expectation that the value of the current asset goes to $600 in their constant value. Will the property inflate or deflate relative to some constant value? Are there other assets they could buy that hold that value better or even have a chance of increasing in value?

One needs to know if there will be an END to the inflationary policies that caused the new "affordability" in the first place. We are promised an end but what will it really bring?

The early '80s saw a killing of inflation and a dropping of interest rates. There was also a concurrent increase in real estate prices. But also concurrent was an increase in economic activity, a stability in commodity price expectations from the '70s, and the blossoming of the baby boomers into their prime home-buying years. Which was the predominant force? Which will it be now?

OK, so if I’m buying in Renminbi and the NY RE market is off X% from peak and US devaluation is Y% vs local currency, then X+Y = like shopping at WalMart. Why wait, buy now and buy more later. If I was sitting in Hong Kong or Guangzhou, I’d be all over this!

Inflation? Inflationary policies? We have massive unemployment, debt-ridden consumers trying to cut back and powerful political movements forcing government to reduce essential spending, leading to still more unemployment and still less demand. With insufficient demand chasing idle resources, where exactly is inflation coming from? Import prices will go up, of course, but the chance of general wage/cost inflation is close to nil.

As for a drop in the dollar, the impact on NY RE prices is not obvious. Short term, it should discourage foreign bubble-chasers -- trend chasers will worry about future US devaluations, which cost them money in their local currency. If there are any "Irish carpenters" left, this would be the final blow to that particular story. Long term, the impact reverses. If the dollar drops, foreign buyers can afford more; flight capital can move its aspirations up. (Fundamental value investors are going to wait until the fundamentals look better anyway, so they are irrelevant.)

Even in NYC, the impact of foreign buyers is limited. Domestic demand is more important. Dollar devaluation eventually will make US production and employees more competitive with foreign ones, so should increase US employment and production. This is good for Americans, obviously, and the US economy in general -- but it may well hurt finance and the rentier class, which drives so much of NYC RE demand. And in any event, it will take years, not months, to work through.

On the supply side, which long term is more important, the impact of a dollar devaluation depends on how large the foreign component is to NYC building. Imports will get more expensive, so Italian tile and German appliances will go up. I don't have any numbers, but I doubt that much of the cost of building in NYC is import-related.

Probably even large depreciation of the dollar would have relatively little impact on the big NYC RE picture, which is a slowly deflating bubble: supply slowly catching up with slowly deflating bubble prices. On the other hand, a drop in the dollar might speed recovery from the current recession, which, in turn, might either slow the downward price slide, or lead to higher interest rates sooner and speed the adjustment.

If the US uses currency devaluation as the main tactic to counter the debt crisis, then there will be a redistribution of US currency possesion, percentage wise. Creditors or credit countries such as Japan and China will possess a even higher percentage of US currency than they do now. That is a very good way to cheat our creditors out. China will be forced to use its huge possession of US currency to counter its own inflation by buying more imported US products, relatively cheaper at that time.Which will help stimulate the US economy, and maintains some attractiveness of real estates in properous US cities such as NYC. These are the positive aspects.

There will be negative aspects in the US also. US currency devaluation will increase money liquidity inside US too. The basic issue would be "how to distribute" these liquidity. Different sectors within our society will try to get a bigger pie of it. There will be more management-labor union struggle, retail inflation and social instability.

Will NYC real estate price go up as a result? probably yes because of increased liquidity. If policy maker can paint a decent economic outlook as a result, then foriegn investors may buy in too. Possibly creating another bubble.

what happened in Germany after WWI to real estate. get it.

hold cash and beware.

I'm not a finance person, so I didn't glean a consensus from the responses. As I understand it, RE is a hedge against inflation, so if prices rise, RE values (& therefore prices) rise as well.
So, could the finance people on this board please spell it out a bit clearer: As the USD devaluates, will NYC RE purchase prices rise or fall? Thank you.

Has this not ALWAYS been the plan?

Folks were freaked about their 401K back in 2008.
Obama to the rescue with the amazing money printing machine.
Market looks alot better then it did below 7000. People saw the number come up a bit and they slept better at night and gave them the confidence to return to our only remaining hope...the Mall. It's harder to see the value shrink. All you have to do is buy food or fuel and you see the results. Banks and home owners are holding the re bag. Devaluing the dollar can create the illusion of value in RE. It's a zero sum game. Everyone wins...everyone loses...almost everyone(bankers laugh).

So basically, we have a very wide diversity of opinions here, but the only one person who possibly agrees with apt23 is upperwestern who is able to cite what happened after World War I but noticeably wasn't able to say the same for what happened after World War II.

that's a trick question, because those sneaky germans got the us of a to destroy their infrastructure and rebuild it bigger, better and newer. it was clearly their plan all along, as proven by the shocking documentary roman à clef, the mouse that roared.

and you posted this....why?

What, no racist post on this thread, columbiacounty?

and you posted this....why?

People are strange when you're a stranger
Faces look ugly when you're alone
Women seem wicked when you're unwanted
Streets are uneven when you're down

as noted before, you're trying too hard.

you only post racist anti-Asian comments on certain threads, columbiacounty?

All I can say is that my life is pretty plain
I like watching the puddles gather rain
And all I can do is just pour some tea for two
And speak my point of view but it's not sane
It's not sane

Lucille, get a grip.

way too hard.

Got to find a reason, a reason things went wrong
Got to find a reason why my money's all gone

what a shame.

Do you have the time
To listen to me whine
About nothing and everything
All at once
I am one of those
Melodramatic fools
Neurotic to the bone
No doubt about it

columbiacounty, please explain your anti-Japanese racism? and the need to show it off at a time of tragedy.

huntersburg
24 minutes ago
ignore this person
report abuse Lucille, get a grip.

i like how you think

Once upon a crime I thought I was cool
but I don't want to brag
Once I crossed the line I think I musta
zigged when I shoulda zagged

Same old same old every day
if things don't change you're just gonna rot
Cause if you do what you've always done
you'll always get what you always got
Uh could that be nothin'

Getting back to the original post (with all due respect to the..uh..poetry), maybe apt23 could explain how a deval would lead to nominal price declines to 500psf. Most commenters clearly don't see that connection.

Also, apt23 wrote: "Though these opinions have been circling for some time -- as the dollar has fallen--the old adage says that when it hits the mainstream media --watch out cause it is too late. " That's a strange take on what the media is doing given that there have been about a zillion discussions of what will happen to the dollar since all this money printing (or whatever you want to call it) began. E.g., check Larry Kudlow who is mildly obsessed with the topic.

I am frankly concerned about a thread topic that uses W67 and "backdoor" so close together. That's just asking for trouble!

what..is 67 sensitive in that area?

"(with all due respect to the..uh..poetry)"

omg, they're song lyrics! just how old are you people, around here, exactly? the first one is the doors and last is aerosmith. others are green day, weezer, sublime, blind mellon. these are hits, too! i wasn't even being all tricky and obscure. my few attempts at poetry have been rather dark, actually. because it only really comes out as a way of dealing with grief or something bad, sometimes it helps to give your pain a story and treat it like a separate entity. but damn it! these are all hit songs! not one of them even came out after 94! oh except what i got, which was put out by the band after brad nowell's death, i believe in 96ish.

and just to clear, the "I" in all the lyrics would be columbiacounty. to be very very clear.

Truth, is that really you?

me? no. just lucille. truth is much older and sues people and was trained in some kind of isreali hand to hand combat. she also lets people pick on her, which i never do and would nip in the bud asap. i kickbox and shoot things with guns. not so good at manual fighting.

She was Abbott and Costello's daughter.

Back doors and Unicorns......this thread is going to need dark tinted windows.

"She was Abbott and Costello's daughter."

truth? roger, Roger. over, Over. do you like gladiator movies?

"- why would a dollar deval cause prices to fall to 500$ psf?

- what currency is the dollar going to collapse against?"

agreed, OP's inability to understand the dollar must fall relative to another currency, not against itself shows he studied "economics" since he wasn't smart enough to get into the accounting or finance program...

if purchasing with USD$ it it would still be at the same USD$ per square foot.. so a $1,470 psf pad will still remain a $1470 psf pad for the domestic buyer... for a foreign buyer however, it would just entice him further to jump into the manhattan market

The possible US dollar deval will be caused by waves of quantitaive easing. We are officially in QE2 now. If there were QE3, QE4...QE(N), then the US dollar deval will go along with inflation even within the US, because there would be too much printed and electronic money floating around. Remember, when they use the federal reserve to buy US bonds, most of those newly printed money circulated within the US. They used them to finance the government's budget deficits. Those money will eventually get to individual's hand. At that time, everyone would fight for a larger pie of it. Wait to see a lot of union actions. Retailers eventually cannot eat their increased cost anymore and raise prices, as their customers have more money (newly printed or created electronically) to buy. If that does not translate into stronger buying power, that is just inflation.

In fact, the fed clearly stated that they wanted to raise the expectation of inflation when they introduced the QE programs. In the best case scenerio, only the expectation of inflation will be raised. So people will start buying instead of saving. In a less than ideal case, there will be more QE programs until there is an accelerated inflation.

So we all agree that the OP is a complete idiot?

Checking back in. What we have here is a thread with a very dubious opening posting by Apt23. Basically, every poster points out it makes no sense. Apt23 never returns to defend herself. She always has the most extreme take on any news, and then, somehow relates it back to her extreme view of 500psf, and then, when people point out that her analysis is flawed she screams troll or just disapears. Why did she post this article with such fanfare, creating a new thread, and then walk away?

Another example of a very dubious posting by apt23 where she ignored reasoned replies by another poster and called him a troll rather than take on the substance of his postings.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/22901-nycs-downhill-race-to-become-miamio

She was probably busy selling all of her stocks over the past two days.

now buyerbuyer, isn't your characterization of the linked thread just a tad unfair? If you read carefully, you'll see that apt23 does get thanks and kudos from one poster - a borker! Of course said borker then proceeds to join the rest of the posters on the thread in debunking the original post, but hey, when you live in an alternative reality of your own making you can't be too picky about where the support comes from.

who doesn't like gladiator movies?

And sadly, both Peter Graves and Leslie Nielsen died in 2010.

But we still have apt23 who must have grown up in the 1930s to remind us how bad things can be.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=0ufk8Gglw6Y

huntersburg: I missed this. Must have been out of town. I see I got an honorable mention from spin.
Did lucille really think that I let people pick on me, about 12 months ago?

So I'm thinking of trading up to a larger place (which I guess is sorta kinda like getting off the sidelines), but I'm not seeing anything in the $500 psf neighborhood, despite all the sage prognostication to that effect that we have been blessed with in the past. Should I keep waiting for the sky to fall? chickenlittle23? w67? anybody?

sidelinesitter is
"so tired of waiting
tired of waiting for you
for you-ooh-ooh..."

sidelinesitter
about 2 hours ago
Posts: 1573
Member since: Mar 2009
ignore this person
report abuse

So I'm thinking of trading up to a larger place (which I guess is sorta kinda like getting off the sidelines), but I'm not seeing anything in the $500 psf neighborhood, despite all the sage prognostication to that effect that we have been blessed with in the past. Should I keep waiting for the sky to fall? chickenlittle23? w67? anybody?

yes, where are the fucking streeteasy genius'? I guess we'll have t wait for the next next next downturn?

Ask Brooks2 - he's been yammering about it and creating thread after thread about it the past two or three years....

A real oracle, that one....

SLS: You are missing the point of the article and Ray Dalio's prediction. "Backdoor" means reaching that $500 price target through devaluation -- not strictly in dollar terms. So, you could take virtually any currency, but let's take gold since it is basically trading as a fiat currency. Early 2010, at the time of this article, gold was trading at $1000 per ounce (give or take $80). Currently gold is trading @ $1700 (give or take $80). So if you had bought an apartment in dollars in 2010, you would be about even or have a slight upside. If you had bought the apt in gold terms, you would be up 70%. If gold goes up to $2000 ( which is more than possible in the short term), in essence, your cost psf would have been cut in half.

Which explains why Dolly says that the preponderance of her high end buyers are foreigners. Strong foreign currency means that they are paying a helluva lot less psf than your dollar denominated purchase. $500??? psf?? Certainly not ------yet.

Brokers used to tell foreigners who are buying in British Pounds that they could get 60% more for their money, or in Euros that they could get 30% more for their money - and we used to laugh at or scorn the brokers for that dishonest sleight of hand. It is therefore remarkable that now extreme real estate pessimists would be using the same devious deception on this thread with a straight face.

with those criminals writing USD (no need to actually print) like crazy, housing price will reach $5000/psf very soon

Wow, this was a good thread and I made some good points back then. Totally agree with caonima.

If/when we get a good dose of inflation what cost $5000 in this future , was previously valued at $500, hence the "Backdoor". This is not really what W67 was talking about and btw that never really happened unless you're living on Sesame Street. If you believe this, and I do, general appreication of hard assets like real esate will at least maintain value as opposed to MONEY.

sidelinesitter:
That's your problem, you are missing the point of the article.
Stop having a mind of your own and thinking your own thoughts!

Truth: Too bad you have never had an original thought to know what it is like. Your brain is only wired to parrot song lyrics that have no relevance to any subject at hand.

apt23, the wise one of streeteasy.
Your brain is only wired for posting bullshit comments.
I'm still waiting to be "disowned" by the people you know in the music business, who you were going to contact months ago, instructing them.

BULLLLSHIT, you bullshitter!

yep, she just doesn't want him to sing a song while he's back-dooring her.

apt23, it's an interesting theory. But can you say one asset devalued due to one particular asset's rapid rise? Can we compare with other currencies. Spikes aside, major world currencies are not more than 10-20% up versus usd. Even RMB on its steady march up is only up 10% from beginning 10.

pier: it is true all currencies did not perform the same -- and given the crises in Europe it is understandable. I think that Ray Dalio at the time was particularly speaking of devaluation of the dollar and there were many hedge fund managers that went into gold due to the unprecedented money printing around the world. Dalio was the best performing hedge fund manager over these years. If you listened to that particular cohort, you invested in gold and US equities .

I had wanted to buy an apt in Manhattan in 2008/9. As I have said many times on this board, I have followed Dalio rather religiously for years. I sold all my Real Estate holdings in 2004 -2007 based on Dalio's evaluations of macro global concerns as well as the analysis of one other hedge fund manager I was following at the time. After reading Dalio's assessment, I put my manhattan purchase on hold and I allocated that "RE purchase" money to US equities, particularly the well telegraphed investment in Apple and telecoms. I also took a very big position in Disney. My three largest positions were Disney, Apple and gold. Because I was so levered in these investments, I hedged by trading options on these positions and did very well.

The apartment I liked in 2008 has risen only marginally. If I bought that same apartment now with the money that I had allocated for RE, (and subsequently invested in equities) my cost psf would be significantly lower. Not $5OO PSF. But significantly less than the ask price in 2008/9

of course apt23 has everything timed perfectly. no mistakes ever for apt23. Columbiacounty's fraud can't even match apt23's natural brilliance.

Apt23 : what you write is gibberish as usual. You kooky and always wrong bears have been predicting a decline. In NYC real estate relative to other assets in the USA, (because it's a bubble, you say).....so how does a devaluation do that? Anyway, in most countries suffering a big devaluation, real estate in major cities reprices to keep some par with hard currency values.

Apt23 : it is just stupid to try to impress people telling us about your past successes that cannot be verified. We don't believe you. But you can do this : tell us what assets will perform best in 2013... Thanks !

frumpytruth--to be disowned, one needs to own--you own nothing in the entertainment business but a bunch of fantasies--your days as a cast-off groupie ended with your teens--so long ago--frump on!!

23's experience of the last few years is consistent with market conditions--realestate in nyc held at bottom in 08-09, and has underperformed most other assets since--and of course were nyc re and said other assets leveraged comparably, outperformance has been accentuated

no mystery--and it didnt need to be apple--how bout the lil old s&p or 3 to 1 since 08/09? nice trade! NYCRE since 08/09? more expensive than renting and mtm incl transaction cost around break even--bad trade!

To be clear, the argument of the bears has been that NYC real estate is a bubble that will at some point burst, with prices falling to 500$ psf. Arguing that the us dollar will devalue is a different argument -- and not what has been central to the ny real estate market analysis of the bears. Apt23 is just confused if it doesn't see that distinction.

Actually that's not true. A number of us have been arguing in terms of inflation-adjusted value.

That is correct AR. And that was the point of this thread which was started 21 months ago -- and it has come to pass. That argument posited by impressive financial gurus was accurate. The fact that most other assets did extremely well (thanks to our govt supporting the equity markets --- and telling us that is exactly their intention) and real estate did not keep pace (except in the extreme high end) has brought down the price per square foot for everyone who invested in those well telegraphed assets.

Imho, the fact that the govt created a put in the market is the reason the highest earners should pay more taxes. If you were moderately conservative, you could not lose in equities in the past few years. It was a welfare program for the wealthy and all who benefitted from it --including me--should pay higher taxes on the govt's largesse.

Everyone knows that reallynow is in fact huntersburg who knows nothing about finance.

Ray Dalio, the subject of this thread predicted two days ago that rates will go higher at the end of 2013. If he is correct, that will also mean that real estate in NYC will be affected. If rates go back above 6% prices will moderate.

I guess I don't understand how investing in another asset and making higher returns on that than on real estate, brings down the psf. Most of what I remember is that people were saying that prices would reach $500 psf. Not that if I make x amount investing in equities and real estate prices remain $1000 psf it will seem like $500 psf.

I'm not talking about alternative investments, I'm talking about real vs. nominal pricing, although I understand in concept what apt23 is discussing, which is related.

Only one person is allowed to disagree with apt23. All of the people above who held remarkabky diverse opinions but all in disagreement with apt23 are just one person - me.
Also, this is the case even though apt23's prediction didn't come to pass at all. I like how now she is changing her position. Currency isn't devaluating, but on a relative basis to other risk assets she says that real estate now is even though owner occupied housing was never intended to have the risk profile of equities.

So what about predictions for next year? And how is the purchase you made in Miami (conveniently left out of the narrative above) doing?

I was responding to apt23. Inflation adjusted is one thing because that affects everyone. Certain % of people doing well with alternative investments doesn't bring the psf down.

there are two pieces here:

one considers a re purchase in 08, decides against and puts cash to be spent into s&p. s&p doubles (as it has, in fact). now one has twice the buying power one had in 08, where re prices have appreciated minimally. re is effectively much cheaper now for that person.

the other is that, over time, as re underperforms inflation, it also becomes cheaper effectively. so a flat re market for a buncha years makes re relatively cheaper for buyers who alternatively invest in assets which track or outperform inflation

i hope that keeps your knickers from abunchin

in case your a$$ likes to eat your knickers

"re is effectively much cheaper now for that person."

I just won the lottery. It doesn't mean psf is down.

This was not the argument that people were making. Prices were actually coming down and not effectively coming down. As prices were coming down, the # 500 psf was thrown around. I didn't hear effectively 500 psf.

I've seen a number of different ways on here of determining prices. A hybrid would be total monthly costs for the same unit at two points in time, adjusting for inflation.

The whole devaluation argument is like when brokers say that if you buy in British Pounds you get 60% more for your money. Apt23 is our latest alchemist.

The prediction as stated 2 years ago: the value of NY real estate value will fall to $500psf

The (revisionist) prediction as stated today: the value of NY real estate will fall to RMB6,000psf, a.k.a. 0.6oz of gold psf, a.k.a. 2 shares of AAPL psf

Based on today's version, the prediction came true. The fact that prices have risen is the inconvenient truth in the storyline, but who's counting?

well, the story is not over. i don't recall w67 giving a time line for his $500 prediction and It was not a number I came up with. But if you read the original post I never said that value will fall to an actual $500psf. I said:

For all of you who have questioned W 67's target price of $500 psf -- did you ever consider that his prediction could be reached with a great deal of help thru dollar devaluation?

Which in essence is saying prices may effectively reach $500psf -- a back door approach to better prices.

And the real inconvenient truth is that RE prices are depressed vs many, many other assets in the same time period. RE prices have risen in the extreme high end -- and for the foreigners who have been assisted by a weaker dollar (vis a vis many assets) the prices are probably still somewhat reasonable if you have just made several billion in the equity and commodity markets. But for the moderate middle of the market, prices have risen --but only modestly. Certainly no where close to the 100% rise in the S&P. There is no way around this fact: It was far more lucrative to have your money in any number of assets other than real estate in the last two years -- unless you are flipping $75-100 million apartments.

And 21 months ago what you said was universally panned.

Yes, about ready some bears have made the real decrease in real estate argument . But that argument , like the argument about the nominal price decreasing, addressed NYC real estate prices eroding from the perceived bubble pricing. Devaluation of the dollar affects all assets and is a different argument and perspective .

And it is by no means clear that a massive dollar devaluation would leave NYC real estate prices nominally the same. Often I crisis situations in a country that has devalued , the prime properties in the major cities have immediately repriced in the devalued local currency terms, in order to at least partly keep even value in hard currency terms.

Apt23 : you have made innumerable sky is falling arguments about the price of NYC real estate prices falling, and now you're back tracking and trying to say its the same effect if NYC real estate underperformed the stock market . But it's not, obviously. The fact is the NYC market has not performed as you warned with much hysteria many times.

Pointing out the obvious that real estate has done less well than the stock market does not magically absolve bears from being wrong on what happened to real estate prices in NYC, either real or nominal in the last couple years .

And in an economic crisis with a huge us dollar devaluation, is it so certain that NYC real estate would be a worse place to be than the us stock market ? ??

"And in an economic crisis with a huge us dollar devaluation, is it so certain that NYC real estate would be a worse place to be than the us stock market ? ??"

It's quite obvious that in that hypothetical crisis in which the stock market goes down, for the sake of argument, 50% and NYC real estate goes down, again for the sake of argument, 20% that the ideological bears would be pointing to the 20% and screaming that they were right all along. Relative performance on the way up, absolute on the way down (unless of course the reverse is more convenient, in which case the reverse).

So cynical, sls.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/21592

"So cynical, sls." Thank you. I do work at it, so it's nice to be noticed

Apt23 has still not recognized that the argument that NYC real estate is a bubble and prices, real or nominal, will fall dramatically is different from suggesting that the value of NYC real estate in other currencies will fall. The former is what the bears predicted, and it has not happened so far, and so apt23 is making up a new argument to somehow claim it and the other bears were right. It's ridiculous, like much of what apt23 writes.

Whatever happened to Mr.apt23? The last we heard, apt23 called the police on him, thinking it was okay to falsely say he was about to use an illegal gun on their neighbor. Since then we haven't heard anything about him. How long ago was that?

apt23 simultaneously makes the argument that rates will rise and that our currency will be devalued. I know nothing about finance she says, but both of those actions or effects will cause a decline in real estate she tells us.